Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Zarzh]

You are incredibly missing the point, which that it is extremely possible to draft a #1D outside of the top-10 of the NHL draft. I don’t care if these guys were late bloomers or just undervalued in their draft years, the point is that they were not top-10 picks and they became #1D.

In the top 15 maybe, sometimes someone will fall like Dobson or it becomes a numbers game where there might be a draft with so many quality players someone has to fall to the early teams.

The point is they aren't replicable (the closest we've seen recently is Hutson, or Fox forcing his way to New York), but scouts are making those simple mistakes less and less often.

 

[dmcccdmn]

You are incredibly missing the point, which that it is extremely possible to draft a #1D outside of the top-10 of the NHL draft. I don’t care if these guys were late bloomers or just undervalued in their draft years, the point is that they were not top-10 picks and they became #1D.

This just goes to show that it's so difficult to evaluate defensemen than centers. Using top picks on defensemen is risky and doesn't always pan out; yet, teams continue to do it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

In the top 15 maybe, sometimes someone will fall like Dobson or it becomes a numbers game where there might be a draft with so many quality players someone has to fall to the early teams.

The point is they aren't replicable (the closest we've seen recently is Hutson, or Fox forcing his way to New York), but scouts are making those simple mistakes less and less often.

Brock Faber in 2020 immediately springs to mind. Nikishin was drafted in the third round and has star potential. As you mentioned, Lane Hutson potentially. I’m not saying it happens all the time but it does happen.

Just to be clear, are you arguing that it’s not possible to get a #1D outside the top-10?

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I’m kinda getting the sense that Macklin is leaning toward returning BU and chasing that Natty. I have zero evidence to support my senses. I forget how young he is. Probably just wants to savor being in college. Idk. Personally, I think he ‘s ready for the NHL.

 

[Cas]

I’m kinda getting the sense that Macklin is leaning toward returning BU and chasing that Natty. I have zero evidence to support my senses. I forget how young he is. Probably just wants to savor being in college. Idk. Personally, I think he ‘s ready for the NHL.

I suspect a literal dump truck full of money will change his mind.

 

[tiburon12]

I’m kinda getting the sense that Macklin is leaning toward returning BU and chasing that Natty. I have zero evidence to support my senses. I forget how young he is. Probably just wants to savor being in college. Idk. Personally, I think he ‘s ready for the NHL.

Watching his interviews really revealed to me how young he is. I wouldn;t hate him going back just for that reason. Hockey-wise, idk if it's the best move, but human-wise i think it is.

 

[Zarzh]

Brock Faber in 2020 immediately springs to mind. Nikishin was drafted in the third round and has star potential. As you mentioned, Lane Hutson potentially. I’m not saying it happens all the time but it does happen.

Just to be clear, are you arguing that it’s not possible to get a #1D outside the top-10?

Faber was an extreme example of a late bloomer and Nikishin was undervalued and also ended up a late bloomer. Faber's offense is probably a little overrated and he might take a step back next season but on the other hand he has the steepest development curve of his generation.

It is incredibly bad strategy because of development time and asset management. You want to take undervalued defensemen when they're available sure, but even if by some miracle it works, it would take too long for development and you'd want 2 of them.

 

[spintops]

"

Where does my team need to pick to have a realistic expectation of landing a future top-six forward or top-four defenseman?​

Pronman: I have 18 players in this draft that I’m very passionate about and project as top-six forwards or top-four defensemen on competitive teams.

Wheeler: A clear top-17 emerged for me in this draft, and I think all of those players project as that caliber of player. I expect 14 of those players to be gone in the front half of the first round but there are three who could conceivably linger into the late teens or 20s: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (the least likely of the bunch to linger), Trevor Connelly and Michael Hage, all of whom are forwards. There are others who I think could become that (players like Solberg and Adam Jiricek could become second-pairing D, for example, and there are others who will develop nicely and become second-line forwards) but my “expectation” does lower once those 17 are taken. If your team is drafting in the top 15 this year, you’re going to get a very good player. There may be a small group of them available for a short time after that"

Interesting bit - lots of fans think there is a "big 13". Pronman/Wheeler would put a few more in that group putting us in a great spot.

 

[Barrie22]

Anyone that argues that top defensemen don't go later in round 1 or even into round 2 and beyond never watched the sharks for more then 1 season.

Just in the past 10 years, we have had Boyle (undrafted), burns (20th), Vlasic (2nd round), Karlsson (15th).

That is just defense that played for the Sharks.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

"

Where does my team need to pick to have a realistic expectation of landing a future top-six forward or top-four defenseman?​

Pronman: I have 18 players in this draft that I’m very passionate about and project as top-six forwards or top-four defensemen on competitive teams.

Wheeler: A clear top-17 emerged for me in this draft, and I think all of those players project as that caliber of player. I expect 14 of those players to be gone in the front half of the first round but there are three who could conceivably linger into the late teens or 20s: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (the least likely of the bunch to linger), Trevor Connelly and Michael Hage, all of whom are forwards. There are others who I think could become that (players like Solberg and Adam Jiricek could become second-pairing D, for example, and there are others who will develop nicely and become second-line forwards) but my “expectation” does lower once those 17 are taken. If your team is drafting in the top 15 this year, you’re going to get a very good player. There may be a small group of them available for a short time after that"

Interesting bit - lots of fans think there is a "big 13". Pronman/Wheeler would put a few more in that group putting us in a great spot.

Interesting they view Solberg and Jiricek as the next bunch. I think fans would have Connelly in that top 14 if not for the off the ice stuff, so Hage is the only true surprise.


They also likely have Eiserman higher than fans do.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

#1 D-man however, get drafted all over the place:

Number 1: Ekblad, Power, Dahlin
Top 5: Hedman, Hughes, Makar, Seider, Pietro, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chara
Top 10: Dobson, Bouchard, Seabrook
Mid-late 1st: McAvoy, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Morrise,
2nd: Josi, Weber, Faber, Vlasic, Subban, Lidstrom, Keith
3rd or later: Fox, Slavin

I think what teams look for in dmen has changed over time. Back in the '00s, most of the highly drafted dmen were big physical types, and the drafting team would add "Oh, and he makes a good first pass..." (Aside: when the Sharks traded for Todd Gill back in the '90s, he was described as "the master of the Pat Burns breakout--just chip the puck off the glass and down the ice short of icing." Gives an idea of how low skill was in the evaluation of dmen then.) The higher skill but smaller guys went later in the first or second round, which is why many of the Norris winners from that generation were not high draft picks.

Now teams value skill over size for dmen. A big guy is still good if he has high end skill. But guys like QHughes and Makar never would have gone in the top ten 20 years ago.

 

[ChompChomp]

I’m kinda getting the sense that Macklin is leaning toward returning BU and chasing that Natty. I have zero evidence to support my senses. I forget how young he is. Probably just wants to savor being in college. Idk. Personally, I think he ‘s ready for the NHL.

No way. He isn't going to somehow magically become the first forward since Lindros to not go directly from 1OA to the NHL. (Ovie doesn't count because there was no 04-05 NHL season) He's just keeping quiet now just like Will Smith made his decision and kept quiet until after worlds. Right now he, Celebrini, is just focused on the draft. He'll get drafted and I feel very confident that a week or two later, he signs his ELC. There's just no reason for him to make that public now before he's even drafted.

 

[coooldude]

No way. He isn't going to somehow magically become the first forward since Lindros to not go directly from 1OA to the NHL. (Ovie doesn't count because there was no 04-05 NHL season) He's just keeping quiet now just like Will Smith made his decision and kept quiet until after worlds. Right now he, Celebrini, is just focused on the draft. He'll get drafted and I feel very confident that a week or two later, he signs his ELC. There's just no reason for him to make that public now before he's even drafted.

This seems right, and it's supported by everyone around Celebrini's camp saying it seems like it's 95% / 5%. There's still a chance he goes back to BU, but probably not once he's officially drafted and he can meet with Warso and Grier and make a plan (plus share plans about the FA period).

 

[Cas]

Staying in college costs Celebrini at least $800,000 immediately, could push his first big contract back a year and cost him millions down the line, and risks costing him everything if he gets hurt.

In exchange he gets to "live the college life" instead of "living the pro athlete life."

 

[Barrie22]

People need to realize that Celebrini isn't even drafted yet, of course he isn't going to make up his mind and tell the media what his plans are going forward when he isn't even an official NHL prospect.

We have just over a week until the draft (very unlikely but anything can happen between now until the draft that can make him fall to a point where teams won't draft him).

 

[hohosaregood]

I don't really see why Celebrini would be attached to the college life other than maybe playing with Eiserman for a year. Smith had bloodline arguments but Celebrini doesn't really have any legacy reasons for staying at BU

 

[sharks_dynasty]

I don't really see why Celebrini would be attached to the college life other than maybe playing with Eiserman for a year. Smith had bloodline arguments but Celebrini doesn't really have any legacy reasons for staying at BU

I doubt he stays in college. Especially considering he likes to “stay in the moment” as he stated in his draft combine interview. I believe he is trying to not get ahead of himself by announcing that he is going to play in the NHL next year when the draft has yet to happen and a conversation with his new GM about his future has yet to happen. All in due time.

 

[Juxtaposer]

People need to realize that Celebrini isn't even drafted yet, of course he isn't going to make up his mind and tell the media what his plans are going forward when he isn't even an official NHL prospect.

We have just over a week until the draft (very unlikely but anything can happen between now until the draft that can make him fall to a point where teams won't draft him).

This is exactly it. He isn’t going to announce he’s not going back to college before he’s even drafted.

Again I say, Bedard said “if I make the NHL” last year as though it wasn’t a forgone conclusion that he’d immediately be the best player on that team. These guys can’t go making audacious claims even if they’re obvious.

 

[one2gamble]

These guys can’t go making audacious claims even if they’re obvious.

I mean they can, it would make the pressers more entertaining

 

[LilLeeroy]

I don't really see why Celebrini would be attached to the college life other than maybe playing with Eiserman for a year. Smith had bloodline arguments but Celebrini doesn't really have any legacy reasons for staying at BU

Probably his last chance to ever play hockey with his brother again?

This is exactly it. He isn’t going to announce he’s not going back to college before he’s even drafted.

Again I say, Bedard said “if I make the NHL” last year as though it wasn’t a forgone conclusion that he’d immediately be the best player on that team. These guys can’t go making audacious claims even if they’re obvious.

Bedard said stuff like, "I'll do whatever the team that drafts be thinks is best.", Celebrini's answers are more suggestive than that, even if he ultimately signs for the money.

 

[ieglover]

Probably his last chance to ever play hockey with his brother again?


Bedard said stuff like, "I'll do whatever the team that drafts be thinks is best.", Celebrini's answers are more suggestive than that, even if he ultimately signs for the money.

He isnt letting money impact his decision.

He has been planning on playing in the NHL for half his life. Vancouver, San Jose, 2 years at SSM, 1 year in Chicago, 1 year at BU. "College Life" isnt going to draw him back, he has basically been a professional athlete for years. Smith had ties to BC and he played there 1 year, I cannot fathom Macklin going back to BU.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I mean they can, it would make the pressers more entertaining

Grier’s pressers are certainly more entertaining than Kyle Davidson pretending like he wasn’t sure if they’d draft Bedard.

 

[Star Platinum]

He isnt letting money impact his decision.

He has been planning on playing in the NHL for half his life. Vancouver, San Jose, 2 years at SSM, 1 year in Chicago, 1 year at BU. "College Life" isnt going to draw him back, he has basically been a professional athlete for years. Smith had ties to BC and he played there 1 year, I cannot fathom Macklin going back to BU.

Honestly, I can't wait until the official announcement so we can stop having these dumb debates like we did with Smith. He's coming to San Jose.

 

[matt trick]

In the top 15 maybe, sometimes someone will fall like Dobson or it becomes a numbers game where there might be a draft with so many quality players someone has to fall to the early teams.

The point is they aren't replicable (the closest we've seen recently is Hutson, or Fox forcing his way to New York), but scouts are making those simple mistakes less and less often.

If we have an opportunity to draft the next Hedman, Power, Dahlin, Heiskanen, or Makar with a future top 5 pick, I'd be thrilled. That said, aside from including some retired d-men, not sure what's not resonating.

I'm not saying d-men don't matter or that they are easy to find outside the top 5. I'm saying they are dramatically, dramatically more likely to be found outside the top 5 than number 1 centers look at the past 10 years of first and second team centers and d-men and where they were drafted.


1st Team Center & D

Year/Rank	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
23	McDavid (1)	Draisaitl (3)	MacKinnon (1)	Hughes (1)	Petterson (5)	Zibanejad (6)	Matthews (1)	Point (75)	Bergeron (45)
22	Matthews 1)	McDavid (1)	Draisaitl (3)	Stamkos (1)	Barkov (3)	Mackinnon (1)	Bergeron (45)	Miller (15)	Crosby (1)
21	McDavid (1)	Matthews (1)	MacKinnon (1)	Draisaitl (3)	Crosby (1)	Barkov (3)	Aho (35)
20	Draisaitl (3)	MacKinnon (1)	McDavid (1)	Matthews (1)	Eichel (2)	Malkin (2)	Petterson (5)	Point (75)
19	McDavid (1)	Crosby (1)	MacKinnon (1)	Stamkos (1)	Bergeron (45)	Barkov (3)	Tavares (1)	Draisaitl (3)	Point (75)
18	McDavid (1)	MacKinnon (1)	Kopitar (11)	Malkin (2)	Giroux (22)	Karlsson (53)
17	McDavid (1)	Crosby (1)	Backstrom (3)	Scheifele (9)	Matthews (1)	Malkin (2)	Tavares (1)	Atkinson (157)	Bergeron (45)
16	Crosby (1)	Thornton (1)	Kopitar (11)	Kuznetzov (26)	Seguin (2)	Pavs (205)	Toews (3)	Backstrom (3)	Begeron (45)
15	Tavares (1)	Crosby (1)	Getzlaf (18)	Stamkos (1)	Seguin (2)	Backstrom (3)	Toews (3)	Bergeron (45)	Johnson (U)

Top 5: 52/76 (1st: 32).

Year/Rank	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
23	Karlsson (15)	Fox (66)	Makar (4)	Lindholm (6)	Morrisey (9)	Dahlin (1)	Hamilton (9)	Heiskanen (4)	Hughes (5)
22	Makar (4)	Josi (38)	Hedman (2)	McAvoy (15)	Fox (66)	Ekblad (1)	Letang (62)	Toews (108)	Carlson (27)
21	Fox (66)	Makar (4)	Hedman (2)	Hamilton (9)	Theodore (26)	McAvoy (15)	Weegar (206)	Nurse (7)	Letang (62)
20	Josi (38)	Carlson (27)	Hedman (2)	Pietro (4)	Slavin (120)	Makar (4)	Hamilton (9)	Theodore (26)	Werenski (8)
19	Giordano (U)	Burns (20)	Carlson (27)	Hedman (2)	Reilly (5)	Letang (62)	Josi (38)	McDonagh (12)	Jones (4)
18	Hedman (2)	Doughty (2)	Subban (43)	Jones (4)	Carlsson (27)	Klingberg (131)	Josi (38)	Burns (20)	Ghost (78)
17	Burns (20)	Karlsson (15)	Hedman (2)	Keith (54)	Suter (7)	Weber (49)	Doughty (2)	Shattenkirk (14)	Giordano (U)
16	Doughty (2)	Karlsson (15)	Letang (62)	Josi (38)	Klingberg (131)	Suter (7)	Hedman (2)	OEL (6)	Weber (49)
15	Karlsson (15)	Subban (43)	Doughty (2)	Weber (45)	Josi (38)	Giordano (U)	Keith (54)	Letang (62)	Suter (7)

Top 5: 23/81 (#1: 2, #2: 11)

Amongst centers, 42% of the time a player is in the top 9 (or less in some years) in 1st team all-star voting they were drafted number 1. 68% of the time they were top 5.

Amongst d-men, 16% of the time a player is in the top 9 in 1st team all-star voting, they were drafted top 2. 28% of the time they were drafted top 5.

My hope is this highlights the massive discrepancy in finding a elite center (almost exclusively at #1, 2 or 3, aside from Point and Bergeron), and a elite d-man. Elite d-men can be found throughout the draft but more than 25% of the time are drafted top 5.

On a historical basis, you're actually more likely to get a top 9 d-man (in a given year) at 2 or 4 then 1. I think this highlights to things 1) centers are more projectable or there is a bias for the best centers in the draft over any other position and 2) that for a bad team like the Sharks getting their future number 1 is far less reliant on winning the lottery, than the #1 center is.

Don't need to get to caught up in this, but there hasn't been a top 9 center drafted 4th. Fix that for us, will you, Will! Note: this is a joke, I don't care overly much about historical performance from a specific spot, outside of #1. Quality of draft year makes a profound impact moreso than a few spots difference.

 

[Star Platinum]

Grier’s pressers are certainly more entertaining than Kyle Davidson pretending like he wasn’t sure if they’d draft Bedard.

I think his press conferences are a cure for terminal boredom personally, but to each his own. If he makes the right moves, he can be as bland as he likes in his press conferences.