In the top 15 maybe, sometimes someone will fall like Dobson or it becomes a numbers game where there might be a draft with so many quality players someone has to fall to the early teams.
The point is they aren't replicable (the closest we've seen recently is Hutson, or Fox forcing his way to New York), but scouts are making those simple mistakes less and less often.
If we have an opportunity to draft the next Hedman, Power, Dahlin, Heiskanen, or Makar with a future top 5 pick, I'd be thrilled. That said, aside from including some retired d-men, not sure what's not resonating.
I'm not saying d-men don't matter or that they are easy to find outside the top 5. I'm saying they are dramatically, dramatically more likely to be found outside the top 5 than number 1 centers look at the past 10 years of first and second team centers and d-men and where they were drafted.
1st Team Center & D
Year/Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
23 | McDavid (1) | Draisaitl (3) | MacKinnon (1) | Hughes (1) | Petterson (5) | Zibanejad (6) | Matthews (1) | Point (75) | Bergeron (45) |
22 | Matthews 1) | McDavid (1) | Draisaitl (3) | Stamkos (1) | Barkov (3) | Mackinnon (1) | Bergeron (45) | Miller (15) | Crosby (1) |
21 | McDavid (1) | Matthews (1) | MacKinnon (1) | Draisaitl (3) | Crosby (1) | Barkov (3) | Aho (35) | | |
20 | Draisaitl (3) | MacKinnon (1) | McDavid (1) | Matthews (1) | Eichel (2) | Malkin (2) | Petterson (5) | Point (75) | |
19 | McDavid (1) | Crosby (1) | MacKinnon (1) | Stamkos (1) | Bergeron (45) | Barkov (3) | Tavares (1) | Draisaitl (3) | Point (75) |
18 | McDavid (1) | MacKinnon (1) | Kopitar (11) | Malkin (2) | Giroux (22) | Karlsson (53) | | | |
17 | McDavid (1) | Crosby (1) | Backstrom (3) | Scheifele (9) | Matthews (1) | Malkin (2) | Tavares (1) | Atkinson (157) | Bergeron (45) |
16 | Crosby (1) | Thornton (1) | Kopitar (11) | Kuznetzov (26) | Seguin (2) | Pavs (205) | Toews (3) | Backstrom (3) | Begeron (45) |
15 | Tavares (1) | Crosby (1) | Getzlaf (18) | Stamkos (1) | Seguin (2) | Backstrom (3) | Toews (3) | Bergeron (45) | Johnson (U) |
Top 5: 52/76 (1st: 32).
Year/Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
23 | Karlsson (15) | Fox (66) | Makar (4) | Lindholm (6) | Morrisey (9) | Dahlin (1) | Hamilton (9) | Heiskanen (4) | Hughes (5) |
22 | Makar (4) | Josi (38) | Hedman (2) | McAvoy (15) |
Fox (66) | Ekblad (1) | Letang (62) | Toews (108) | Carlson (27) |
21 | Fox (66) | Makar (4) | Hedman (2) | Hamilton (9) | Theodore (26) | McAvoy (15) | Weegar (206) | Nurse (7) | Letang (62) |
20 | Josi (38) | Carlson (27) | Hedman (2) | Pietro (4) | Slavin (120) | Makar (4) | Hamilton (9) | Theodore (26) | Werenski (8) |
19 | Giordano (U) | Burns (20) | Carlson (27) | Hedman (2) | Reilly (5) | Letang (62) | Josi (38) | McDonagh (12) | Jones (4) |
18 | Hedman (2) | Doughty (2) | Subban (43) | Jones (4) | Carlsson (27) | Klingberg (131) | Josi (38) | Burns (20) | Ghost (78) |
17 | Burns (20) | Karlsson (15) | Hedman (2) | Keith (54) | Suter (7) | Weber (49) | Doughty (2) | Shattenkirk (14) | Giordano (U) |
16 | Doughty (2) | Karlsson (15) | Letang (62) | Josi (38) | Klingberg (131) | Suter (7) | Hedman (2) | OEL (6) | Weber (49) |
15 | Karlsson (15) | Subban (43) | Doughty (2) |
Weber (45) | Josi (38) | | Keith (54) |
| Suter (7) |
Top 5: 23/81 (#1: 2, #2: 11)
Amongst centers, 42% of the time a player is in the top 9 (or less in some years) in 1st team all-star voting they were drafted number 1. 68% of the time they were top 5.
Amongst d-men, 16% of the time a player is in the top 9 in 1st team all-star voting, they were drafted top 2. 28% of the time they were drafted top 5.
My hope is this highlights the massive discrepancy in finding a elite center (almost exclusively at #1, 2 or 3, aside from Point and Bergeron), and a elite d-man. Elite d-men can be found throughout the draft but more than 25% of the time are drafted top 5.
On a historical basis, you're actually more likely to get a top 9 d-man (in a given year) at 2 or 4 then 1. I think this highlights to things 1) centers are more projectable or there is a bias for the best centers in the draft over any other position and 2) that for a bad team like the Sharks getting their future number 1 is far less reliant on winning the lottery, than the #1 center is.
Don't need to get to caught up in this, but there hasn't been a top 9 center drafted 4th. Fix that for us, will you, Will! Note: this is a joke, I don't care overly much about historical performance from a specific spot, outside of #1. Quality of draft year makes a profound impact moreso than a few spots difference.