I lean towards optimism on this getting done with Phoenix as it looks like they scuttled the Tempe plans knowing that Phoenix had this option around the corner. We'll likely never know as they would never reveal their cards on something like this, but they so clearly did just a token campaign for the vote in Tempe, and then very shortly after the vote they already had the Phoenix plan in the works.
I understand you have backups, but I also wonder if Phoenix didn't make Meruelo a serious offer until he had a serious option with Tempe going, and that's why they could have a seemingly solid plan in place with Tempe, only to falter on what would be the final steps before the vote (lack of campaigning, also wasn't there a debater who couldn't make a flight last minute - maybe that's a bit too conspiracy theory).
The consternation from the NHL I could see stemming from Meruelo having the Tempe plan so close, but then him deciding that the Phoenix option is so much better. The NHL looks at it and is like, that was a perfectly good solution and now you want to discard it and risk everything on a pie-in-the-sky opportunity with Phoenix. I could see why a bunch of non-Meruelo actors here question a choice to go back into limbo over stability.
Anyway, I'm done rambling, but if he's really orchestrated something akin to this, then I'd be quite confident in the whole thing getting done. However, there's no chance we'll get a view of what's really gone on in the background to ever substantiate anything like this.