Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[bhamill]

If Laf gets more than Fil or even Kakko, this org is f***ing dumb.

Doubt he gets what Fil just got. It will be comparable to Kakko. Probably a touch higher. He’s a 1OA and his stats to end his ELC are better than Kakko’s were, no?

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

2 million a year is the fair market rate for anybody that produces the same number of pts as laffy. no objections at a renewal for 1-2 years. just hope there is no regression from this past season.

 

[ElLeetch]

why? He's not even as good as Kappo- look at Kappo's contract for reference.

Casey Middlestadt signed for 2.5M two years ago while producing half as much.

Kailer Yamamoto signed for 3.1M last year after putting up the same points as Laf just did.

Luke Kunin signed for 2.8M after a 22 point season.


That what young players signing RFA bridge deals are getting.


If you think a 21 year old who just had a 0.5ppg pace for less than that, you are nuts.

 

[duhmetreE]

Casey Middlestadt signed for 2.5M two years ago while producing half as much.

Kailer Yamamoto signed for 3.1M last year after putting up the same points as Laf just did.

Luke Kunin signed for 2.8M after a 22 point season.


That what young players signing RFA bridge deals are getting.


If you think a 21 year old who just had a 0.5ppg pace for less than that, you are nuts.

those are 3rd contracts.

Laffy will get 2 years 2.1-2.3M

 

[Filip Chytil]

I mean, I don’t watch Winnipeg Jets games in massive quantities, but I see Laf’s best stuff in these highlights all day…. Laf just has to do it more consistently. These are exactly the type of goals Lafreniere scores.

Laf is an elite gum chewer. Connor is mediocre at best at gum chewing. The comp doesn't hold up.

 

[IDvsEGO]

those are 3rd contracts.

Laffy will get 2 years 2.1-2.3M

Yamamoto is still an RFA at the end of that contract, zero UFA years involved, and he got 2 years 3.1 million. The only reason a 3rd contract is more expensive is because you likely have UFA years involved.
Same with Kunin.

Seriously Laf is looking in the 3m+ range per year.
He put up top 6 wing numbers at 5v5. I think someone posted it before the playoffs, but at 5v5 scoring he was what 50th for LW's? Which puts him as a top 6 LW.
Which considering he was on the third line, is fairly impressive. Yeah he got more 5v5 time than CK, its still impressive.

 

[ReddestRum]

Yamamoto is still an RFA at the end of that contract, zero UFA years involved, and he got 2 years 3.1 million. The only reason a 3rd contract is more expensive is because you likely have UFA years involved.
Same with Kunin.

Seriously Laf is looking in the 3m+ range per year.
He put up top 6 wing numbers at 5v5. I think someone posted it before the playoffs, but at 5v5 scoring he was what 50th for LW's? Which puts him as a top 6 LW.
Which considering he was on the third line, is fairly impressive. Yeah he got more 5v5 time than CK, its still impressive.

So let me get this straight. You want to 3m+ this guy just because of EV points. He's been up, down and back on the roster and is on the 3rd line because he produces like he's a 3rd line guy. He doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the Top 6. Fil and Kakko are only stapled to him because GG fell into this dumb shit "kid line" deal that was as consistent as you can imagine it would be with those three playing together. He's regressed in goals from previous years and is lucky enough to have touched the puck more times than being the primary assist guy.

1.8x2. Anything more than 2m is an overpayment for a kid whose future has a big f***ing question mark on this team going forward the next few years.

 

[Rangers in 7]

So let me get this straight. You want to 3m+ this guy just because of EV points. He's been up, down and back on the roster and is on the 3rd line because he produces like he's a 3rd line guy. He doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the Top 6. Fil and Kakko are only stapled to him because GG fell into this dumb shit "kid line" deal that was as consistent as you can imagine it would be with those three playing together. He's regressed in goals from previous years and is lucky enough to have touched the puck more times than being the primary assist guy.

1.8x2. Anything more than 2m is an overpayment for a kid whose future has a big f***ing question mark on this team going forward the next few years.

I have to truly ask you a question. Take out the fact he was drafted 1st overall and just look at his stats. And compare those to players on their 2nd contracts. There is no f***ing way he is signing for 1.8 mil a year

Everyone bitching at him has a right to do so. But you are bitching BECAUSE he was drafted 1st overall not because he is 21.

Has he been disappointing as a 1 overall? Yes. As a 21 year old kid? No

 

[ReddestRum]

I have to truly ask you a question. Take out the fact he was drafted 1st overall and just look at his stats. And compare those to players on their 2nd contracts. There is no f***ing way he is signing for 1.8 mil a year

Everyone bitching at him has a right to do so. But you are bitching BECAUSE he was drafted 1st overall not because he is 21.

Has he been disappointing as a 1 overall? Yes. As a 21 year old kid? No

You goddamn right he's a disappointment. Who the f*** drafts young talent to sit on the 3rd line, and yes, he absolutely deserves to be on the 3rd line. He'll be 22 when the 23-24 season starts with 4 NHL seasons under his belt, and the most games played in his draft class which he lags behind. My god there are rookies right now playing more difficult positions, 2 years younger than our kid on damn good teams, but his age is STILL a crutch for you guys. Please...

 

[Chytilmania]

Source that he's "fat"?
don't just put stuff out there that you "think", source it or don't say it

Unfortunately I can’t get access to the exact numbers. But regardless whether it is 18%, 20%, 24%, or whatever it is, it’s “fat” for a 21 year old professional athlete.

Put Laf’s skills in Brendan Smith post-wedding body and that’s what we’re probably looking at. A young kid who thought he could show up and succeed off draft position alone.

This is a forum, we’re always speculating. There’s nothing else to talk about. He’s been a massive disappointment and showed up to camp out of shape. Are you expecting praise? Hey Laf keep doing what you’re doing, it’s working great!

 

[ReddestRum]

20 year old, 1st rd 23rd pick rookie 3rd liner w/ 15 minutes played tonight sends his team to the WCF with a game winning, series clenching insanely skilled, pretty goal.

Keep moving those age goal posts boys.

 

[UnSandvich]

Unfortunately I can’t get access to the exact numbers. But regardless whether it is 18%, 20%, 24%, or whatever it is, it’s “fat” for a 21 year old professional athlete.

Put Laf’s skills in Brendan Smith post-wedding body and that’s what we’re probably looking at. A young kid who thought he could show up and succeed off draft position alone.

This is a forum, we’re always speculating. There’s nothing else to talk about. He’s been a massive disappointment and showed up to camp out of shape. Are you expecting praise? Hey Laf keep doing what you’re doing, it’s working great!

If, y'know, it's not bullshit.

 

[Rangers in 7]

20 year old, 1st rd 23rd pick rookie 3rd liner w/ 15 minutes played tonight sends his team to the WCF with a game winning, series clenching insanely skilled, pretty goal.

Keep moving those age goal posts boys.

The guy that has 6 points in 14 games?

And you are comparing him to laf, who had 9 in 20…..

Laf who along with Kakko and chytil carried us in the post season last year?

Your statement isn’t as one sided as you’d think, it’s razor thin.

 

[ReddestRum]

The guy that has 6 points in 14 games?

And you are comparing him to laf, who had 9 in 20…..

Laf who along with Kakko and chytil carried us in the post season last year?

Your statement isn’t as one sided as you’d think, it’s razor thin.

The guy that's helping his team while on the third line this year.

The guy that has 6 more playoff points than Laf this year.

The guy that still scored more than Laf his rookie season this year.

Yeah, it is as one-sides as I think. You're killing me dude. You think the kids really carried the team last year in the post season? REALLY?

 

[Rangers in 7]

The guy that's helping his team while on the third line this year.

The guy that has 6 more playoff points than Laf this year.

The guy that still scored more than Laf his rookie season this year.

Yeah, it is as one-sides as I think. You're killing me dude. You think the kids really carried the team last year in the post season? REALLY?

LOL no shot you aren’t going to give credit to the kid line in last years playoffs being the best line we had for long stretches. Now I just know you are full of shit.

But you’ve got me, johnson has to be the best 20 year old in the playoffs ever because he scored one nice goal.

Side note I was comparing both of there age 20 seasons in a conference final run…….I’m sure johnson will score 20 points in next years playoffs though

 

[TheWrongWay]

Nope- Only looking at a guy through rose colored glasses is lazy and not accurate. Your entire post is nonsense. He's below standard at literally every aspect of what I outlined so much so that I genuinely wonder if you've watched any other team play?

Your original point was he has not shown he's lazy and I pointed out how he's exhibited traits of a lazy player and you respond with well he might be lazy but that does not mean he won't someday not be lazy. I don't know how to argue with that.

When you say, "below standard at literally every aspect of what I outlined so much so that I genuinely wonder if you've watched any other team play," I have to wonder if you've seen other teams play and what standard you're referring to exactly. It surely isn't a standard involving all other teams.

That said, let’s look at this using other teams, in an overly simplistic but logical way, comparing him statistically to other LWs league-wide. In being overly simplistic, let’s say the top scoring 32 LWs are the line 1 LWs on the 32 teams league-wide and we’re kinda looking at this as line 1, 2, 3, and 4 LWs as follows:

• The top 32 scoring LWs avg 70 pts, ranging from 49-109 pts
• The 33-64 scoring LWs avg 38 pts, ranging from 29-48 pts
• The 65-96 scoring LWs avg 22 pts, ranging from 15-29 pts
• The 97-128 scoring LWs avg 10 pts, ranging from 4-15 pts

Lafreniere’s numbers fall squarely in the second group of 32, or second-liner territory at his position, and there are a lot of LWs a heck of a lot worse than he is. And where he stands league-wide at LW basically bears this second-line LW idea out:

• 69th in TOI/GP
• 63rd in PPG
• 46th in PTS
• 36th in ES PTS

How he progresses is anyone’s guess. But those numbers are not horrific for a guy who is 21 years old and still has room to grow.

I think folks tend to perhaps wrongly compare players against what top-tier players do, and probably also bundle wing scoring in with centers (center and wing are different beasts, and centers generally out-score wingers by a comfortable margin).

Again, this was an overly simplistic example, using only stats. But it at least adds perspective on a league-wide level. And does so on things that are measured and can be easily compared.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Wish people would not be so overly relient on stats. Lafs point totals improved in year 3 but his game didn't. I feel like this season was almost a wasted season for him coming off a very good playoff in 2022. With that said if Laf realizes that he didn't play well and works his butt off this summer than it could be a turning point.

 

[2014nyr]

Unfortunately I can’t get access to the exact numbers. But regardless whether it is 18%, 20%, 24%, or whatever it is, it’s “fat” for a 21 year old professional athlete.

Put Laf’s skills in Brendan Smith post-wedding body and that’s what we’re probably looking at. A young kid who thought he could show up and succeed off draft position alone.

This is a forum, we’re always speculating. There’s nothing else to talk about. He’s been a massive disappointment and showed up to camp out of shape. Are you expecting praise? Hey Laf keep doing what you’re doing, it’s working great!

he's definitely not fat/out of shape. he had some issues with conditioning his rookie year yea when he had his junior season ended early and was reduced to working out in a garage until a 1 week training camp because of covid.

he's in good shape now and dropped some weight since his rookie year. regardless, there's tons of nhl players who don't look the pro athlete part. he's a bigger guy just the way he's built. look at phil kessel though. has he maxed his fitness? no. but he's far from slacking. i've said for a long time i'd like to see him lean out a bit. he has done that over the last 2 years to be fair, but he can do more. ideally he fully commits...the temp[ate for him would be mackinnon. he's a bigger guy who realized he needed to lean out a bit and exploded to a whole other level. laf could see similar results doing that.

that said, again, fitness isn't holding him back from being a very productive player. i think gallant did a lot of good things for him, but his usage and vision for him as a player were way off. laf was never a net front guy, his best offensive talents are his vision, deception, and hands. he can help himself by putting himself in the best possible place physically to maximize his pace and quickness, but a new voice has the potential to bring a lot more out of him regardless. it would be insane to give up on this kid, absolutely insane. you don't dominate the world juniors in your draft year by accident, and it wasn't just on the ice. he was the heartbeat of that canadian team. he's had enough time to learn now...all he needs is a little more of a foundation within the system offensively and his confidence will balloon with success. he's not even close to a bust, he's just not a just add water player...we all thought he'd be further along right now. reality is his potential hasn't changed. people who think he's a bust because he hasn't met their expectations at 21 don't have a clue what they're looking at when it comes to hockey evaluation.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

The guy that's helping his team while on the third line this year.

The guy that has 6 more playoff points than Laf this year.

The guy that still scored more than Laf his rookie season this year.

Yeah, it is as one-sides as I think. You're killing me dude. You think the kids really carried the team last year in the post season? REALLY?

Yes lol. The kid line was our best line last postseason

Wish people would not be so overly relient on stats. Lafs point totals improved in year 3 but his game didn't. I feel like this season was almost a wasted season for him coming off a very good playoff in 2022. With that said if Laf realizes that he didn't play well and works his butt off this summer than it could be a turning point.

He has had some bad puck luck and went an incredibly long stretch without a goal. Hes a lock to have a floor 30/30 type of career as a median season production.

 

[JHS]

One off season to really train. Due to COVID he had to train in his friggin garage for his D+1 and as noted last year he didn’t have much of an off season at all. And he has gotten better. His first year was almost as abominable as Jack Hughes’ D+1. Hahahaha.
I think a lot will be answered in training camp as he starts his new 2x2mil+ contract.

Excuse after excuse after excuse. But you guys are so in love with this guy you can’t see any reality. Hope you see the light at some point.

The truth is this organization is just as ready to move on from this guy as they are to re-signing him.

A lot has already been answered- he’s not a good hockey player, he’s barely made any progress and he looks like he’s content being average.

 

[JHS]

I think this is a pretty wild take. A 21 year old who just scored at about 0.5ppg playing with two other young players trying to find their games, and effectively no pp time, and was second among our forwards in hits and you don’t think fans would want to sign him if he was a third rounder or seventh? I think you are mostly on an island there. And what do you mean long term deal? I said TWO years. And he will certainly get 2mil per, probably more, so brace yourself! Regardless if it was 1mil per year he’d still have millions to lose and that was the point of my reply.

My point is for a first overall pick this guys numbers are about the same as a late first round guy or any later round guy. He’s nothing special and honestly shows no skills to lead me to believe he’s going to be special. That’s the point of saying if this guy was drafted in rounds 3-7 people would be thrilled with his production overall. But as a first overall with now 3 seasons behind him he’s putrid and not even close to being dominant.

A typical first overall pick does not get a bridge “prove it” deal if he’s shown anything in his first contract. He’s in this spot because he’s been terrible and the only reason anyone wants to give this guy even more if a chance is because he’s the first overall pick.

Now he may not be terrible for his career but that’s not the point we are discussing. Right now this guy barely has earned any contract renewal from the Rangers and is only getting any interest because of his draft status.

 

[JHS]

those are 3rd contracts.

Laffy will get 2 years 2.1-2.3M

Don’t bother with actual facts here. The group of Laffy lovers would put the Rangers in salary cap hell just so they could watch their beloved first overall develop here.

The Rangers have to make tough decisions this off season and they can’t just give everyone “market rate.” One of the things no one brings up in this thread is Laffy’s slow development or non-existent development now means his arc does not match up with the Rangers arc to win a cup( next 2-3 years). So at his snail like development path, not only has he missed his chance at a big payday, he’s also made himself highly expendable given the clear direction the organization has taken by trying to win the cup now. Laffy does not fit with the “win now” mentality because he’s wasted 3 off seasons and seemingly stagnated his development.

 

[JHS]

When you say, "below standard at literally every aspect of what I outlined so much so that I genuinely wonder if you've watched any other team play," I have to wonder if you've seen other teams play and what standard you're referring to exactly. It surely isn't a standard involving all other teams.

That said, let’s look at this using other teams, in an overly simplistic but logical way, comparing him statistically to other LWs league-wide. In being overly simplistic, let’s say the top scoring 32 LWs are the line 1 LWs on the 32 teams league-wide and we’re kinda looking at this as line 1, 2, 3, and 4 LWs as follows:

• The top 32 scoring LWs avg 70 pts, ranging from 49-109 pts
• The 33-64 scoring LWs avg 38 pts, ranging from 29-48 pts
• The 65-96 scoring LWs avg 22 pts, ranging from 15-29 pts
• The 97-128 scoring LWs avg 10 pts, ranging from 4-15 pts

Lafreniere’s numbers fall squarely in the second group of 32, or second-liner territory at his position, and there are a lot of LWs a heck of a lot worse than he is. And where he stands league-wide at LW basically bears this second-line LW idea out:

• 69th in TOI/GP
• 63rd in PPG
• 46th in PTS
• 36th in ES PTS

How he progresses is anyone’s guess. But those numbers are not horrific for a guy who is 21 years old and still has room to grow.

I think folks tend to perhaps wrongly compare players against what top-tier players do, and probably also bundle wing scoring in with centers (center and wing are different beasts, and centers generally out-score wingers by a comfortable margin).

Again, this was an overly simplistic example, using only stats. But it at least adds perspective on a league-wide level. And does so on things that are measured and can be easily compared.

The whole point is he’s a first overall pick. Not a late first rounder, 3rd rounder or whatever. The best defense you can give this guy is he’s squarely in the second tier of left wings in the sport. Heck of an accomplishment for a first overall pick. You’ve essentially just proven that at best, Laf can be described as average. How is that any different from what I’ve been saying???

Aside from the point that still no one can point out a single thing he’s gotten noticeably better at- what other conclusion can we have than our first overall golden child is essentially a “second tier” winger???

 

[Synergy27]

I’d just like to point out that while I feel like I am driving the train that is trying to run Bread out of town, I am critical of Laf but not as nuts as some of y’all are with these proclamations about how he’s never going to improve and deserves a fourth line paycheck.

He’s been a disappointment, I find it hard to project his talent into an elite player, but he’s certainly a middle six winger at worst, should be on the team, and deserves to be paid what Kakko got if not a bit more.

 

[Rangers in 7]

I’d just like to point out that while I feel like I am driving the train that is trying to run Bread out of town, I am critical of Laf but not as nuts as some of y’all are with these proclamations about how he’s never going to improve and deserves a fourth line paycheck.

He’s been a disappointment, I find it hard to project his talent into an elite player, but he’s certainly a middle six winger at worst, should be on the team, and deserves to be paid what Kakko got if not a bit more.

I feel like there’s a whole group of people who think he’s a terrible player when in reality at worse he’s a middle six winger. Regardless of continued improvement or not he’s a very capable player in the league.

He’s being graded on a curve, which is understandable. But to say he shouldnt be on the team when we know he can produce 40 points and make peanuts is a valuable asset and piece for a winning team