Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part II

[RangersFan1994]

Idk why you're using Rick Nash as your player in this example, Nash was actually a gritty forward compared to most skilled goal scorers. Nash always went into the corners, he finished every check and did a ton of dirty work. He was far grittier than most of the skilled stars in the league.

If you're trying to say X player who isn't gritty at all had more grit than Laf then Gaborik would be a more apt player to use in that example.

Nash wasn't any of this on the Rangers, at all. Rangers and Bluejackets Rick Nash were 2 different players.

 

[brakeyawself]

If, for example, 5 teams thought Byfield > Laf and 26 teams thought Laf > Byfield then the more likely scenario is the five teams are wrong.

So you are using pure "odds" as a determinant? That's so meaningless in regard to what I am discussing at least. It's also completely antithetical to logic and science at least, considering it is based on opinion and thus bias. That is ultimately worse than pure "gambling" rational. Because you are not even basing such odds on statistical input, but the aggregate of human opinion.

While there is absolutely risk assessment and a degree of "chance" involved in drafting, in NHL drafting even more so than NFL or NBA drafting, it is not wholly dependent upon "gambling logic" either. If it were, there would be no need for human intervention or decision making. You would simply input various data and representative figures in a computer, calculate the odds and use that to determine the choice.

Except, that's not how it works. At all. And the existence of outliers, by itself, proves that. And outliers in this regard, are not so out of the range of probability that you would never make such a choice. The odds are in fact, close enough to where human discrimination plays a major role in the outcome. To this extent, human opinion comes into play, but not in the sense of aggregating unequal and unequally informed opinion.

So, "the more likely scenario" in regard to what you are suggesting, is completely irrelevant.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Yikes. a) Another way to say that is "safe". As in "can't miss" As in "it won't facilitate much criticism.

and b) You have absolutely no way of knowing they "both were the obvious choices, for every team in the league."

Did you speak to every GM? Did every GM explicitly state that? You, nor anyone else here has any idea what all 31 NHL teams would have done. So please, stop pretending just because something is popular that it is "correct" or "better" or that "everyone thought" the same. Please stop pretending that a minority of people didn't prefer Byfield, which they did. Please stop pretending that there weren't and aren't real concerns about certain aspects of Laf's game. You are way oversimplifying this, which is exactly the initial point I was making.

You often hear this phrase around draft time, "don't overthink the pick." BS. Use every intuition, perception and bit of intelligence you can to determine the best possible choice for your team and the best possible player for your teams goals and needs.

That kind of fallacious logic, when a situation goes ass up, is generally followed by a statement like "ahh well, who could have known?" or "what can you do?". Um, well now you can't do anything, but there were a number of other things you could have done if you didn't rely on faulty wisdom like "don't overthink it." Sure, don't be indecisive. Don't sit on the fence, rocking both ways, just waiting to see in which direction you fall. That's different. But think about it all day and all night. Think about every possible aspect and outcome to make an informed decision. And whatever you do, don't depend on the opinion of the crowd to determine what you should do.

Dude you keep writing these long rambling posts insinuating that anyone saying Laf and Kakko would've been chosen by all other teams at their draft slots is somehow wrong.

Lafreniere and Kakko were far and away the runaway selections at 1st and 2nd in their drafts respectively, with Kakko even getting consideration at 1st OV from some teams. Selecting them isn't being indecisive, it's not the 'safe' pick in a derogatory sense. They were the slam dunk selection in each draft at their slots and choosing anyone else behind them would've been going off the board. You take the BPA and each of them was considered the BPA at their slots.

People in here don't need to have talked to every GM to know this. Bob McKenzie's rankings, which are made after Bob talks to his contacts in 10-15 organizations about their rankings. We can look at every ranking published by all other legitimate hockey media outlets. We can look at how the prospects were talked about in all of the hockey world.

Lafreniere would've gone 1st overall whether we had the pick or one of the other 30 teams had the pick.

Kakko would've gone second overall whether we had the pick or one of the other 30 teams had the pick.

 

[brakeyawself]

Dude you keep writing these long rambling posts insinuating that anyone saying Laf and Kakko would've been chosen by all other teams at their draft slots is somehow wrong.

Lafreniere and Kakko were far and away the runaway selections at 1st and 2nd in their drafts respectively, with Kakko even getting consideration at 1st OV from some teams. Selecting them isn't being indecisive, it's not the 'safe' pick in a derogatory sense. They were the slam dunk selection in each draft at their slots and choosing anyone else behind them would've been going off the board. You take the BPA and each of them was considered the BPA at their slots.

People in here don't need to have talked to every GM to know this. Bob McKenzie's rankings, which are made after Bob talks to his contacts in 10-15 organizations about their rankings. We can look at every ranking published by all other legitimate hockey media outlets. We can look at how the prospects were talked about in all of the hockey world.

Lafreniere would've gone 1st overall whether we had the pick or one of the other 30 teams had the pick.

Kakko would've gone second overall whether we had the pick or one of the other 30 teams had the pick.

Dude, your argument is based on completely fallacious logic and is completely untrue. You are confusing popular opinion or majority opinion for absolute opinion. They are two different things. And again, you have no way of knowing what all 31 teams would have done because not all 31 teams were actually in the situation to make the choice. Neither does Bob McKenzie, Craig Button or anyone else. In truth, even IF they spoke to all 31 GM's it's unlikely all 31 GM's would a) be completely honest and b) have decided the same when put into the actual decision of having that choice.

So, believe what you want to believe. But that argument entirely misses the point and reality of the situation.

Using terms like "slam dunk" is exactly the problem I am pointing at. Obviously, NO prospect is a "slam dunk". No prospect is an "absolute."

And no, I am not using "safe" in a derogatory sense, I am using it in a risk assessment sense.

Further, I am suggesting that both Laf and Kakko were, unfortunately, misrepresented as "slam dunks", when they are not even as close to "slam dunks" as other actual prospects have been and will be. While none are absolutes, Kakko and Laf were not at the very top of the range of possibility within the bounds of reality. They were misrepresented as such by many.

Guys like McDavid and Crosby would be at the absolute top of that range of possibility. Yet still neither would be "absolutes". They would just be much closer than Laf or Kakko. Which is largely a rhetorical issue anyway rather than a material one. As it's largely the "rhetoric" that I am discussing here. That which existed at the time of the draft and that which to an extent still exists today.

Anyway, I think I've explained it in every possible way at this point.

 

[Crease]

I am satisfied that the Rangers did not have a scouting issue with respect to Lafreniere or Kakko.

 

[Synergy27]

I vividly remember the trepidation and concern among many here regarding whether or not the Rangers would go ahead and make the consensus picks in both of these drafts, but particularly the Kakko draft. Many here, myself included, were worried that they would pull the smartest man in the room trick and not pick Kakko because, we’ll, that’s what they always do.

Just throwing this out there again to strengthen the fact that both Kakko and Laf were the clear consensus picks in both drafts.

 

[deathb4disco]

I vividly remember the trepidation and concern among many here regarding whether or not the Rangers would go ahead and make the consensus picks in both of these drafts, but particularly the Kakko draft. Many here, myself included, were worried that they would pull the smartest man in the room trick and not pick Kakko because, we’ll, that’s what they always do.

Just throwing this out there again to strengthen the fact that both Kakko and Laf were the clear consensus picks in both drafts.

This team can never win with some of its fan base. They take who they are supposed to? They should have went off the board! They go off the board? Rangers never take who they are supposed to! They always think they are the smartest!

 

[brakeyawself]

I vividly remember the trepidation and concern among many here regarding whether or not the Rangers would go ahead and make the consensus picks in both of these drafts, but particularly the Kakko draft. Many here, myself included, were worried that they would pull the smartest man in the room trick and not pick Kakko because, we’ll, that’s what they always do.

Just throwing this out there again to strengthen the fact that both Kakko and Laf were the clear consensus picks in both drafts.

What you see as a "concern" I see as a positive aspect of decision making. And should be completely differentiated from simply being contrarian. Which is what you are implying by your use of that phrase.

But you are then missing the distinction between being contrarian and making an informed and decisive choice.

Calling it the "smartest man in the room trick" is exactly the type of BS "wisdom" that in reality often leads to failure. Dependence upon such rhetorical nonsense is in itself, a fallacious perception of humanity and reality. It's right up there with "where there's smoke there's fire." Both completely antithetical to the nuances of reality. Good luck with that.

 

[brakeyawself]

This team can never win with some of its fan base. They take who they are supposed to? They should have went off the board! They go off the board? Rangers never take who they are supposed to! They always think they are the smartest!

Obviously, they don't ........... There is no standard. It's completely situational. There's no rule and there should be no pattern or habit.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Nash wasn't any of this on the Rangers, at all. Rangers and Bluejackets Rick Nash were 2 different players.

Yes, correct, Nash became the grittier and more physical player when he came here.

Playing PK for Team Canada in 2010 is really what changed Nash's game to add the grittier elements to it.

I'm not saying Nash was Adam Graves out there or anything like that but he was a very physical player for being a high end skill player. Everyone likes to get on him all the time but the guy killed penalties, forechecked hard, was superb along the boards and always finished his checks. He did a ton of stuff in those regards that most high end scorers never do. Idk why he gets such a bad rap in this regard. I'm as disappointed in his playoff performances as anyone else, but the guy played a pretty gritty and physical game for almost his entire time here.

 

[Cmox]

I think he'll be Tavares tier... and that's fine.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Using terms like "slam dunk" is exactly the problem I am pointing at. Obviously, NO prospect is a "slam dunk". No prospect is an "absolute."

They were slam dunks to be selected where they were.

I'm not saying they are slam dunks to reach their potential and slam dunks as the best players to come out of their drafts, I'm strictly talking about their draft positions.

The preponderance of information pre-draft on both of them and player ratings, word from organizations, insider reports, mock drafts. Lafreniere and Kakko were both 100% slam dunks to be chosen where each of them were chosen, every single team in the league makes these selections and honestly there were a handful based on leaked info that would've taken Kakko 1st overall.

 

[Synergy27]

What you see as a "concern" I see as a positive aspect of decision making. And should be completely differentiated from simply being contrarian. Which is what you are implying by your use of that phrase.

But you are then missing the distinction between being contrarian and making an informed and decisive choice.

Calling it the "smartest man in the room trick" is exactly the type of BS "wisdom" that in reality often leads to failure. Dependence upon such rhetorical nonsense is in itself, a fallacious perception of humanity and reality. It's right up there with "where there's smoke there's fire." Both completely antithetical to the nuances of reality. Good luck with that.

It’s a phrase with meaning. I’m not spouting rhetorical nonsense.

I wouldn’t call the Rangers contrarian drafters. They have made several picks that aren’t quite “contrarian”, but are definitely out of sync with the consensus and questioned by many at the time they are made. Lias Andersson is an example. VK to a lesser extent. Dylan McIlrath is the poster boy. As is Jessiman.

These weren’t “contrarian” picks. I’m honestly having a hard time coming up with an example of a contrarian pick though. I don’t think that word works when there are many options vice just a single option that the majority are against.

 

[mas0764]

It's not a scouting issue. But you can't tell me it's not disappointing to draft top-2 twice and not even getting a single Calder vote out of those 2. First time in 50+ years we pick that high, and we get to do it in back-to-back drafts. This is not to say Kakko and Laf won't grow into good players but I can't fault Ranger fans for being annoyed by the lack of production when Lucas Raymond gets a hattrick last weekend.

And yeah, I have heard all the reasons behind it. I am not posting this to discuss the list of reasons why "it was different for Laf/Kakko". Albeit still early, Lafrenière ranks 36th out of 44 first overall picks in their D+2 season in P/GP with 0.43.

Fans want to see more from a guy that has been marketed as generational by some (he isn't but that's a debate for another day) and franchise-altering by others.

This. All the “give it time,” and “he wasn’t really Matthews/Mackinnon level,” excuse making us just that. Oh, so I’m supposed to be happy he’s more on par with the first overall picks who turned out to be busts?

 

[mas0764]

And he followed that up with 14, 21, and 16 for 38, 52, and 53 points and was a huge minus each of those three seasons.

But is Laf on pace for even 52 points?

 

[mas0764]

God help us if Laf tops out as a third line talent.

I mean we get our only first overall in basically 100 years, that would be cruel.

But hey, we got Fox

God help us if he tops out as Chris Kreider. Even if Laf is just that, we aren’t winning any Cups.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

But is Laf on pace for even 52 points?

Currently on pace for 34 points and 23 goals, but it's so early still. A couple 2 point nights in his next 3 games and he'd be on a 60 point pace and if he goes pointless in the next 3 he's on a 23 point pace.

God help us if he tops out as Chris Kreider. Even if Laf is just that, we aren’t winning any Cups.

What if he ends up a Landeskog level player? Bonafide 1st line player who brings a well rounded game but isn't really a superstar level player.

 

[Machinehead]

Kakko: "Hey Laf do you think we should get more assists?"

Laf: "Assists?"

Kakko: "Yeah, you know assists, helpers, apples, lollies..."

Laf:

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Kirby Dach did this last night posterizing a really solid defenseman, feelsbatman.jpeg...haven't seen anything like this from 13 or 24.

 

[2014nyr]

i dont get the panic...laf is fine. he's going to be a big point producer, it might be another year or 2 though. people need to understand just how bizarre last year would have been for him. no hockey for the better part of a year going into the season - and given canada extreme restrictions wouldn't have had much access to ice or a gym, a week of camp, no preseason...extremely limited socializing w/ team, family couldn't visit...on ice and off ice really a year incomparable to any other. beyond that most number 1s go into a desperate situation where they're immediately leaned on which inherently will lead to more points/a different perception than laf going to a team with some high end talent up front where he could be sheltered. obviously he's not mcdavid/matthews level, but his ceiling is still extremely high. his season last year didn't bring any cause for concern - there was no way he wasn't going to be pretty overwhelmed early in the year with everything working against him - i think its extremely impressive and telling he improved significantly over the course of the season. it was a long, hard year for everyone...for a teenager to deal with all that not to mention the expectations both internal and in the media and not only not break down but continuing to stay engaged and show improvement as he got a feel for the pace and playing within a structure. if you were at any games last year you saw before periods he'd be sitting on the boards facing the bench running the conversation. it was clear the way teammates celebrated with him after games he was already a big part of the room. we've seen glimpses of his ability to walk through players effortlessly, the vision and weight he threads passes with, the shot he can unleash - and most importantly, there's no doubt about his hockey iq...i just don't know how anyone would be worried about him busting. he definitely was well behind the pace last year, especially so early but looked better as he got into game shape and more comfortable. his acceleration was really bad though - he's significantly improved this year but that he'll have to keep working on in the summers.

as far as this season and his performance - he's never been a good fit with mika. there's a reason panarin doesn't like playing with him. mika and kreider are more straight line, chip and chase down the ice, in multiple iterations if necessary. for one laf has never looked completely comfortable on the puck playing w/ mika, not sure if its a deferential thing not wanting to step on toes or just not sure how to read off him. bottom line is mika doesn't tend to initiate coordinated, controlled breakouts with 3 forwards coming down the ice with control and attacking with some semblance of a plan to create a chance off a zone entry. thats not a great situation for laf who's at his best going at defenders and getting shots / finding passing lanes off it. he just doesn't get the puck in those situations because of the nature of the line. i hope he settles on the line w/ chytil/blais. its not perfect...fil has a lot of mika in him in the d zone / coming up ice, very straight line w/ blinders on, slap the puck if he gets in trouble - what i can't make sense of is fil then having very competent vision/hockey sense with the puck in the o zone - don't see that very often. but blais is a very smart player with way more skill than people realize - with what we have available right now roster wise this seems like the best situation for laf - expect if that sticks we'll start seeing a lot more of him with the puck on his stick and looking a lot more deliberate. there's a ton more there than there was even last year, might also just be a slow starter...i mean mika is fanning on one timers and panarin hasn't shown much interest in passing to his own team yet and there's no panic there...maybe we cut the 19 yr old w/ 3 game winners in 7 games some slack

there's a reason gallant said laf's name in who we need more from rather than high paid vets in mika and panarin and it was't to throw him under the bus. that alone should be pretty telling about what he sees in laf

 

[chosen]

Dude, your argument is based on completely fallacious logic and is completely untrue. You are confusing popular opinion or majority opinion for absolute opinion. They are two different things. And again, you have no way of knowing what all 31 teams would have done because not all 31 teams were actually in the situation to make the choice. Neither does Bob McKenzie, Craig Button or anyone else. In truth, even IF they spoke to all 31 GM's it's unlikely all 31 GM's would a) be completely honest and b) have decided the same when put into the actual decision of having that choice.

So, believe what you want to believe. But that argument entirely misses the point and reality of the situation.

Using terms like "slam dunk" is exactly the problem I am pointing at. Obviously, NO prospect is a "slam dunk". No prospect is an "absolute."

And no, I am not using "safe" in a derogatory sense, I am using it in a risk assessment sense.

Further, I am suggesting that both Laf and Kakko were, unfortunately, misrepresented as "slam dunks", when they are not even as close to "slam dunks" as other actual prospects have been and will be. While none are absolutes, Kakko and Laf were not at the very top of the range of possibility within the bounds of reality. They were misrepresented as such by many.

Guys like McDavid and Crosby would be at the absolute top of that range of possibility. Yet still neither would be "absolutes". They would just be much closer than Laf or Kakko. Which is largely a rhetorical issue anyway rather than a material one. As it's largely the "rhetoric" that I am discussing here. That which existed at the time of the draft and that which to an extent still exists today.

Anyway, I think I've explained it in every possible way at this point.

What does the term "absolute opinion" mean?

Do you mean a belief held by everyone without exception?

How would Rasmus Dahlin fit into this description?

 

[jay from jersey]

i dont get the panic...laf is fine. he's going to be a big point producer, it might be another year or 2 though. people need to understand just how bizarre last year would have been for him. no hockey for the better part of a year going into the season - and given canada extreme restrictions wouldn't have had much access to ice or a gym, a week of camp, no preseason...extremely limited socializing w/ team, family couldn't visit...on ice and off ice really a year incomparable to any other. beyond that most number 1s go into a desperate situation where they're immediately leaned on which inherently will lead to more points/a different perception than laf going to a team with some high end talent up front where he could be sheltered. obviously he's not mcdavid/matthews level, but his ceiling is still extremely high. his season last year didn't bring any cause for concern - there was no way he wasn't going to be pretty overwhelmed early in the year with everything working against him - i think its extremely impressive and telling he improved significantly over the course of the season. it was a long, hard year for everyone...for a teenager to deal with all that not to mention the expectations both internal and in the media and not only not break down but continuing to stay engaged and show improvement as he got a feel for the pace and playing within a structure. if you were at any games last year you saw before periods he'd be sitting on the boards facing the bench running the conversation. it was clear the way teammates celebrated with him after games he was already a big part of the room. we've seen glimpses of his ability to walk through players effortlessly, the vision and weight he threads passes with, the shot he can unleash - and most importantly, there's no doubt about his hockey iq...i just don't know how anyone would be worried about him busting. he definitely was well behind the pace last year, especially so early but looked better as he got into game shape and more comfortable. his acceleration was really bad though - he's significantly improved this year but that he'll have to keep working on in the summers.

as far as this season and his performance - he's never been a good fit with mika. there's a reason panarin doesn't like playing with him. mika and kreider are more straight line, chip and chase down the ice, in multiple iterations if necessary. for one laf has never looked completely comfortable on the puck playing w/ mika, not sure if its a deferential thing not wanting to step on toes or just not sure how to read off him. bottom line is mika doesn't tend to initiate coordinated, controlled breakouts with 3 forwards coming down the ice with control and attacking with some semblance of a plan to create a chance off a zone entry. thats not a great situation for laf who's at his best going at defenders and getting shots / finding passing lanes off it. he just doesn't get the puck in those situations because of the nature of the line. i hope he settles on the line w/ chytil/blais. its not perfect...fil has a lot of mika in him in the d zone / coming up ice, very straight line w/ blinders on, slap the puck if he gets in trouble - what i can't make sense of is fil then having very competent vision/hockey sense with the puck in the o zone - don't see that very often. but blais is a very smart player with way more skill than people realize - with what we have available right now roster wise this seems like the best situation for laf - expect if that sticks we'll start seeing a lot more of him with the puck on his stick and looking a lot more deliberate. there's a ton more there than there was even last year, might also just be a slow starter...i mean mika is fanning on one timers and panarin hasn't shown much interest in passing to his own team yet and there's no panic there...maybe we cut the 19 yr old w/ 3 game winners in 7 games some slack

there's a reason gallant said laf's name in who we need more from rather than high paid vets in mika and panarin and it was't to throw him under the bus. that alone should be pretty telling about what he sees in laf

Agree. Covid was basically a throw away year for development.
Stamkos, if you remember also had issues early with trying to defer too much and not trusting his skillset at the NHL level.
It got to the point where Tampa was considering trading him.
Sather had a package ready headlined by Callahan and Girardi, Tampa balked at the 11th hour.
The rest is history.
I see many parallels with stamkos/LaF development and many similar problems they both had/have as kids.
They were both very highly touted, and both demonstrated an elite shot early that their clubs wished they’d use more.
I personally, think Laf will be ok. I don’t think we’re going to see a 100pt guy, but a wing that will grow into a leader, and score between 70–80 pts maybe hit 90 in a season or 2.
He’s got good size and hands already. He’s got to get a little stronger. Both on his skates, and in the weight room.
There’s going to come a point where he lets loose and begins to trust his skillset. That’s when we’re going to see the player we hoped we got right away when we drafted him.
Right now he’s still a small fish in big pond syndrome.

 

[mas0764]

Currently on pace for 34 points and 23 goals, but it's so early still. A couple 2 point nights in his next 3 games and he'd be on a 60 point pace and if he goes pointless in the next 3 he's on a 23 point pace.



What if he ends up a Landeskog level player? Bonafide 1st line player who brings a well rounded game but isn't really a superstar level player.

I wouldn’t bet on it. No MacKinnon, no Rantanen.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Leave Laf on the 3rd line til he gets it. Force feeding him top minutes isn't working.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

But is Laf on pace for even 52 points?

I honestly don't care what he's on pace for, I care more about how he progresses and the team getting as many points as possible. We're 7 games into the season.