Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part II

[Harbour Dog]

Stutzle is a better skater than Laf, which makes it easier for him to create separation. He is given more ice time and a more prominent role on a bad team (nearly 3 minutes of PP time per game). He also has experience playing against men and got to warm up playing in the WJC. It's not surprising that he is doing better. But more points as a rookie doesn't mean he will be the better player long term.

Laf's skating will likely improve, but where he really needs to improve is the pace at which he processes the game. And he will. He isn't the first kid to struggle with it and he won't be the last, but he has shown good vision and hockey IQ at every other level, and we've seen flashes of it at the NHL level. He's been dominating against kids for the last 2 years. Playing in the NHL is a big adjustment, no matter who you are.

But I get it. We all want instant gratification. No one wants to read posts by other fans calling him (or Kakko) a bust. But that type of stuff shouldn't be driving the Rangers' decision making when it comes to developing these kids.

 

[LokiDog]

I think there is a chance Stuetzle ends up the better producing player. I don’t think there is ANYONE in an NHL front office who would have taken him over Lafreniere and I don’t think that necessarily means he ends up the better PLAYER. But the 1st OA isn’t the best player taken in every draft. It happens. Redraft 2014 and #3 is clearly #1 now (also German).

I’m not saying that in reaction to Laf’s first 30 games. I still have monumentally high hopes for him. I’m just acknowledging that it happens sometimes and no one can be angry or blame our scouts if that ends up being the case. Lafreniere was the consensus #1 with a very safe margin.

Stuetzle, to me, (and it was said around draft time too so I’m guessing that contributes to my feeling) has a Kane vibe. He’s a dynamic offensive threat that jumps off the screen. Good for him. He may well be a superstar/the best player from his draft one day. Lafreniere, at this stage, I can’t completely tell what kind of player I expect from him, but given that I do fully expect him to be A-okay and a serious impact player down the road, I’m wondering if something like Zetterberg (mostly LW, eventually used at C) isn’t a good comparable. Zetterberg (not a high pick) also came on slowly but became a star. Zetterberg outmuscled a lot of people for pucks, was deadly with his hands in tight and could wire it at times. Lafreniere is being forced to learn responsibility and a defense first system right now (and even if he looks terrible in it, look at how Kakko evolved in that regard from year one to year two).

So if Stuetzle ends up like peak Kane and Lafreniere ends up like peak Zetterberg (yes, these are probably both over projections, just using them to illustrate a point) which player is “the best” from the draft (and we’re not counting Kane or Z’s team success, just the type of individual). Kane peaked at 106-110 points as a dynamic somewhat one dimensional winger (although that one dimensions had dimensions unto itself - I just mean you’d never confuse him for physical or defensive). Zetterberg peaked at 92 points, but was a Selke candidate with more elements to his game. Obviously, Kane will be viewed as the “greater” player but actually Zetterberg averaged 73 points per 82 over a 1082 game career and Kane at this point averages 87 points per 82, over 1004 games. The difference isn’t monumental despite Kane being viewed as a the far superior offensive player. And while Kane came in at 18 scoring 72, 70, 88 his first three years, Z didn’t come in until 22 and had 44, 43, 85. He made up some lost points along the way, despite being older.

Obviously Laf is 19 and already in the NHL. But it’s fine if he comes along slower and if he has the same underlying analytics improvement as Kakko in year two, I wonder if this could be a good comparison. I obviously don’t expect Stuetzle to reach Kane’s peak and I think it’s more likely Laf would reach Z’s peak, minus the full defensive prowess. If Laf becomes a consistent 80 point guy who is at least responsible and plays a hard 200 foot game, and Stuetzle becomes a consistent 90 point dynamic score off the rush guy, it’s a toss up as to which is actually the better player.

Right now there’s nothing to judge. This season is a wash. Ridiculous circumstances all around and it’s just impossible to gauge Laf’s trajectory. I believe he’ll be fine.

 

[chosen]

I think there is a chance Stuetzle ends up the better producing player. I don’t think there is ANYONE in an NHL front office who would have taken him over Lafreniere and I don’t think that necessarily means he ends up the better PLAYER. But the 1st OA isn’t the best player taken in every draft. It happens. Redraft 2014 and #3 is clearly #1 now (also German).

I’m not saying that in reaction to Laf’s first 30 games. I still have monumentally high hopes for him. I’m just acknowledging that it happens sometimes and no one can be angry or blame our scouts if that ends up being the case. Lafreniere was the consensus #1 with a very safe margin.

Stuetzle, to me, (and it was said around draft time too so I’m guessing that contributes to my feeling) has a Kane vibe. He’s a dynamic offensive threat that jumps off the screen. Good for him. He may well be a superstar/the best player from his draft one day. Lafreniere, at this stage, I can’t completely tell what kind of player I expect from him, but given that I do fully expect him to be A-okay and a serious impact player down the road, I’m wondering if something like Zetterberg (mostly LW, eventually used at C) isn’t a good comparable. Zetterberg (not a high pick) also came on slowly but became a star. Zetterberg outmuscled a lot of people for pucks, was deadly with his hands in tight and could wire it at times. Lafreniere is being forced to learn responsibility and a defense first system right now (and even if he looks terrible in it, look at how Kakko evolved in that regard from year one to year two).

So if Stuetzle ends up like peak Kane and Lafreniere ends up like peak Zetterberg (yes, these are probably both over projections, just using them to illustrate a point) which player is “the best” from the draft (and we’re not counting Kane or Z’s team success, just the type of individual). Kane peaked at 106-110 points as a dynamic somewhat one dimensional winger (although that one dimensions had dimensions unto itself - I just mean you’d never confuse him for physical or defensive). Zetterberg peaked at 92 points, but was a Selke candidate with more elements to his game. Obviously, Kane will be viewed as the “greater” player but actually Zetterberg averaged 73 points per 82 over a 1082 game career and Kane at this point averages 87 points per 82, over 1004 games. The difference isn’t monumental despite Kane being viewed as a the far superior offensive player. And while Kane came in at 18 scoring 72, 70, 88 his first three years, Z didn’t come in until 22 and had 44, 43, 85. He made up some lost points along the way, despite being older.

Obviously Laf is 19 and already in the NHL. But it’s fine if he comes along slower and if he has the same underlying analytics improvement as Kakko in year two, I wonder if this could be a good comparison. I obviously don’t expect Stuetzle to reach Kane’s peak and I think it’s more likely Laf would reach Z’s peak, minus the full defensive prowess. If Laf becomes a consistent 80 point guy who is at least responsible and plays a hard 200 foot game, and Stuetzle becomes a consistent 90 point dynamic score off the rush guy, it’s a toss up as to which is actually the better player.

Right now there’s nothing to judge. This season is a wash. Ridiculous circumstances all around and it’s just impossible to gauge Laf’s trajectory. I believe he’ll be fine.

I still think Laf will be worth taking first, but he has to improve his skating.

 

[17futurecap]

This has nothing to do with his future or even next year, but right now, he’s useless.

Now, I don’t think the Rangers are even getting to the 4 seed so you should keep playing him a fair amount of minutes, but it’s been a really blah season for him.

 

[Synergy27]

.But I get it. We all want instant gratification. No one wants to read posts by other fans calling him (or Kakko) a bust. But that type of stuff shouldn't be driving the Rangers' decision making when it comes to developing these kids.

This over simplifies the counterpoint and shows a misunderstanding of the criticisms. Yes, there are people already calling him a bust. That’s absurd, and coming from people looking for “instant gratification”.

Then there are people, myself included, looking for some semblance of the player he will ultimately be here in the now. I am not looking for instant gratification, I am looking for signs of the player that we drafted, indications that that elite talent is lurking beneath, and yes, some degree of results that would indicate that he’s going to be a top scorer in the league someday.

I had zero expectation that we’d be getting a near finished product this year. I absolutely thought we’d be getting a kid that would from day one excel in the offensive zone and with the puck al over the rink, and who would require quite a bit of time to round out his game without it.

Is that wanting “instant gratification”?

 

[GAGLine]

This over simplifies the counterpoint and shows a misunderstanding of the criticisms. Yes, there are people already calling him a bust. That’s absurd, and coming from people looking for “instant gratification”.

Then there are people, myself included, looking for some semblance of the player he will ultimately be here in the now. I am not looking for instant gratification, I am looking for signs of the player that we drafted, indications that that elite talent is lurking beneath, and yes, some degree of results that would indicate that he’s going to be a top scorer in the league someday.

I had zero expectation that we’d be getting a near finished product this year. I absolutely thought we’d be getting a kid that would from day one excel in the offensive zone and with the puck al over the rink, and who would require quite a bit of time to round out his game without it.

Is that wanting “instant gratification”?

No, it's not. The desire to give him more time with better players so he can pad his stats is. Maybe you don't fall into that category, but there are plenty who do.

 

[clmetsfan]

He most certainly did...

I should have clarified, I meant this year.

 

[CLW]

He’s been a bit disappointing overall but to say he’s been “nothing” is just plain hyperbole. If Mika and Strome weren’t absolute dog poop the first two months of the season and he had a bit more luck he’d easily be at 15 points or so right now which isn’t too bad given he hadn’t skated in months prior to the start of camp. I know, could woulda shoulda, but it’s a legit argument.

I think he needs to slim down a bit and become more athletic during the offseason. Seems to have bulked up a bit much which is probably diminishing the explosiveness we’ve seen from him in the Q

I noticed the same thing, also with Kakko last season especially. Both of them look less agile but physically stronger. Guess it's a deliberate approach by the Rangers to build their physical strength up as a first step, have them learn team defense and earn their minutes as they go. In contrast Stützle doesn't look much bulkier, he looks fast and athletic, but also a little light weight at times.

 

[LokiDog]

I will say Stuetzle is surprisingly more physical than I expected.

 

[CLW]

I will say Stuetzle is surprisingly more physical than I expected.

He is without a doubt very well trained physically.

 

[CasusBelli]

I will say Stuetzle is surprisingly more physical than I expected.

And on pace for a 50 point regular season. Not bad, even with the North’s subpar defense, considering Ottawa’s roster.

 

[jay from jersey]

And on pace for a 50 point regular season. Not bad, even with the North’s subpar defense, considering Ottawa’s roster.

Stuetzle s wheels are helping him a lot this year. That is the biggest difference I see. He can flat out skate, LaF needs to improve his skating. Both still puppies. They both have talent and vision but LaF doesn’t have that explosiveness when skating.. he also doesn’t get the PP time and top minutes as stuts.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I dont care what Kakko and AL do this year or next. I care about what they do at 23 or 24. If they are stars at that point and carrying the Rangers who the hell cares how they looked at 19 or 20. I’m going to wait rather than burn them at the stake for sucking as teenagers or sophomores in a joke season with only 7 teams — 5 Cup contenders — on the schedule

 

[Backstreets Back]

Stuetzle s wheels are helping him a lot this year. That is the biggest difference I see. He can flat out skate, LaF needs to improve his skating. Both still puppies. They both have talent and vision but LaF doesn’t have that explosiveness when skating.. he also doesn’t get the PP time and top minutes as stuts.

Very true on the skating. We knew this though.

What I'm most upset about is the so called motor and drive that we were told he had. If he was anything but Canadian, people wouldn't sugar coat it, the kid flat out floats. Could be largely due to the fact that he's uncomfortable but as of now it's the truth.

 

[chosen]

I dont care what Kakko and AL do this year or next. I care about what they do at 23 or 24. If they are stars at that point and carrying the Rangers who the hell cares how they looked at 19 or 20. I’m going to wait rather than burn them at the stake for sucking as teenagers or sophomores in a joke season with only 7 teams — 5 Cup contenders — on the schedule

You don't care about the present, at all?

If I had told you before the season that Laf wouldn't be a top-10 scoring rookie, you would have concluded that would mean that he was injured for over half the season.

Actually, you would still have been surprised that he didn't crack the top 10.

 

[Leetch3]

You don't care about the present, at all?

If I had told you before the season that Laf wouldn't be a top-10 scoring rookie, you would have concluded that would mean that he was injured for over half the season.

Actually, you would still have been surprised that he didn't crack the top 10.

obviously we all wish he was tearing it up right now. that would be way better. but yes ultimately what happens in his rookie season doesn't really matter. we need him to lead us to the cup one day, whether or not he wins a calder is less important. lots of guys never won the calder

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Part of the benefit of landing an elite prospect is not only their peak output but also that they are supposed to help the NHL club faster. If these kids follow the Buchnevich development curve and really start producing at 23/24 that is...not a great thing.

 

[ThirdEye]

I can't see it taking 4 years for either Kakko or Laf to become game breakers... Way too much skill and drive. I think both will be at around 55-60 points next season and will become go-to players the following year. You can tell Kakko is right on the verge of breaking out and probably would have already done so if the schedule wasn't so damn grueling.

 

[Rongomania]

I can't see it taking 4 years for either Kakko or Laf to become game breakers... Way too much skill and drive. I think both will be at around 55-60 points next season and will become go-to players the following year. You can tell Kakko is right on the verge of breaking out and probably would have already done so if the schedule wasn't so damn grueling.

I can't help but thinking about Kak after he scored that SO goal when he almost put it through the net entirely. Then is out for two weeks. Kid is beyond unlucky this year.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

And on pace for a 50 point regular season. Not bad, even with the North’s subpar defense, considering Ottawa’s roster.

This is an underrated point in discussing rookies this year. I think odds are good the counting numbers would be very different, and potentially even reversed, if the two players swapped teams.

 

[Rongomania]

This is an underrated point in discussing rookies this year. I think odds are good the counting numbers would be very different, and potentially even reversed, if the two players swapped teams.

Yeah, buf and devs seemed a little scarier to me before the season which has changed my perception of our division of course, now as they've folded. Though our division is still filled with top ranking playoff teams. I don't want to use this as an excuse for our young guys. I honestly am even more impressed that they're hanging every night and some actually impressing under all the circumstances literally surrounding them daily. I think next year when we absolutely demolish 15 teams in multiple games each , you know, the teams some of these kids have played never or once. Cannot wait.

I finally see a decent (maybe a round win) playoff shot for the first time since Jesus, Staal and Holden out there with a minute left.

 

[CupSeeker]

Yeah, buf and devs seemed a little scarier to me before the season which has changed my perception of our division of course, now as they've folded. Though our division is still filled with top ranking playoff teams. I don't want to use this as an excuse for our young guys. I honestly am even more impressed that they're hanging every night and some actually impressing under all the circumstances literally surrounding them daily. I think next year when we absolutely demolish 15 teams in multiple games each , you know, the teams some of these kids have played never or once. Cannot wait.

I finally see a decent (maybe a round win) playoff shot for the first time since Jesus, Staal and Holden out there with a minute left.

Do the Caps have any young players? These top teams in our division are solid defensively, with mostly veteran defenses. I want more production, but I am more interested in their compete level; this is where Laf is falling down a little. I remain patient due to the huge jump he made this year without training camp and with the long layoff; nothing is normal this year.

 

[Peltz]

Part of the benefit of landing an elite prospect is not only their peak output but also that they are supposed to help the NHL club faster. If these kids follow the Buchnevich development curve and really start producing at 23/24 that is...not a great thing.

I want them to produce faster, but definitely don’t consider it a bad thing if they take until 23 to play well. It’s all part of the process. I doubt the team will be a contender until 2023-24 anyway.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I want to see more fire in his game.

What we saw of him in Juniors and the way he played at worlds - a bit of a different player. He isnt as physcial and is lackluster on the forecheck. Seems to me that hes on a similar path as Kakko. Worried about positional play and is thinking a little too much instead of reacting instinctually and forcing plays with his skill.

There is some truth about his pacing - which was one of the only knocks on him coming into the draft. He WILL improve in that department. He has the drive. He is mentally strong and as a super young player in this league it takes a little time to develop that. But i'd like to see more flashes of it.

I'd like to see him have more shifts at top speed, forcing plays, taking the body and being more of a pest. I dont even care if he has the puck on his stick, I dont care if the shifts are shorter, I dont even care if he makes more mistakes because of it.

I want to see the pace pick up. Im sure the coaching staff notices it too - as a young player that is something that will come with time and watching more and more video of yourself.

 

[leetch99]

Sending him back to junior now would not make much sense as they must be close to winding up their regular season in the Q and Rimouski I think is 2nd last in the league and likely no playoffs . He would have to quarantine for 2 weeks ? and then how many games would the club have left at that point . Then he would have to hibernate for two more weeks before a return to the big club....I doubt it happens .

I have no problem sitting him out a game or two though. We are in a tough division and sometimes watching from above is not a bad idea for a rookie . Gives him a bit of a rest physically and mentally and a couple of games to recharge .
I wonder though on account of Covid if instead of a return to Canada....would they make a special allowance to send him to Hartford ? I am not familiar with how Covid protocol works between two states if two weeks or whatever ?