Player Discussion Alexander Ovechkin (Vol. 4)

[george14]

You forgot: "Leads the team in assists & points".

Neither are true now, and Carlson always had a big lead in assists.

Ovi’s point total isn’t troubling; if you flipped his projected goals and assists he would be fine, as he is 38. But he has never been good defensively (at least not recently) so he doesn’t really bring anything to the team currently aside from leadership. He is immobile and floats, while getting the most PP TOI in the league lol.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Wow this has become a troll thread. Just a reminder Jagr is still playing professional hockey

 

[YippieKaey]

Neither are true now, and Carlson always had a big lead in assists.

Ovi’s point total isn’t troubling; if you flipped his projected goals and assists he would be fine, as he is 38. But he has never been good defensively (at least not recently) so he doesn’t really bring anything to the team currently aside from leadership. He is immobile and floats, while getting the most PP TOI in the league lol.

Sounds like a Pens fan to me. Oh wait.....

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

What’s behind Alex Ovechkin’s scoring decline? Breaking down his offensive drop-off

One of the greatest goal scorers of all time is experiencing an unexpected decline this season. Can the aging superstar turn things around?

theathletic.com

 

[marcel snapshot]

Good piece. This excerpt from the article highlight the habits Carbs is trying break:

"What also has to be considered is the predictability of their power-play formation. But a lack of fluid movement and too much stagnant standing in formation hurts Washington. So does the obvious strategy of trying to feed Ovechkin for his patented one-timer."

And these touch on the habits Carbs is trying to cultivate:

"pre-shot movement is essential to the danger of a shot. . . . The one power-play goal Ovechkin did score this year actually started with a cross-slot pass from Wilson. While the initial one-timer wasn’t the shot that beat Toronto’s Joseph Woll, the player movement on the sequence afterward led to a goal."

The reason why 39-24-21 has been our most effective line this year is because they're always moving. And when Ovie does move without the puck, he and his line (or the PP) are more effective, but there's just not enough of that.

 

[bacchist]

I was looking at this earlier. His shots on goal per attempt are right in line with the rest of his career... so he's not having trouble hitting the net, and it doesn't seem like he's suddenly getting a lot more shots blocked (which you would expect if his release had slowed down dramatically). And his shot volume hasn't fallen off a cliff... But nothing is going in.

So it could be that his shot just isn't as hard as it used to be, which is possible I suppose. And his accuracy could be off, especially if he's feeling out of sync, gripping the stick too tight, not picking his spots because he's lost a bit of speed and just wants to get the puck to the net. Or it could be an issue with his teammates and/or the system not threatening from other parts of the ice, letting the goalies key in on him...

I'm inclined to chalk it up to luck more than anything else. Probably both getting lucky in recent years to keep scoring at a high rate despite losing a bit of his edge, combined with getting unlucky this year with nothing working for him. The contrast probably makes it seem worse than it really is.

 

[g00n]

Someone said his shot was still clocked pretty fast during one of the games. It's not his power it's the predictability and the fact that he's not skating as hard to get to spots on the ice that force the defense and goaltenders to react instead of keeping an eye on him and watching for the usual behaviors/shots.

He's also probably a bit off in accuracy. He might be trying harder to get the same shot speeds, at the expense of picking and hitting his targets more cleanly.

If he really is shooting slower pucks then maybe he needs a more flexible stick. If it's accuracy then maybe less flex?

 

[YippieKaey]

Yeah his shot is still 90 mph+ most of the time. He does have a tendency to shoot it through the goaltenders armpits (whatever that's called in hockey language?) and i've noticed he keeps on hitting the goalies straight in the torso so might be an accuracy thing. It's weird though to have a 2/3 decline in shooting percentage like that.

Maybe his fathers passing did something.

 

[traparatus]

I think it might be time for the team to re-evaluate Ovechkin's goal scoring record project and start treating it as a long-term endeavour. Begin by accepting that this is going to take a minimum of the entire length of Ovi's contract (2 years after this one) and a realistic target is three years after this current season.

Are you going to keep playing Ovechkin for the entirety of NHL's worst power play for the next ~3 years, for example? If the answer is no, than Caps have to forget about names on the back jerseys and begin structuring their systems around profiles of players that they have, not players that they had 5 years ago. Get your systems setup in a way that benefits the team most and after that is done, you can start worrying about how to utilize Ovechkin in that setup.

Ovechkin has 3 non-empty net goal this season, 1 5-on-5 goal. In a way, this sucks. In another way, this is an opportunity for the team and Ovechkin to accept that they are in it for the long haul and stop trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

 

[BallardEra]

Raise your hand if you thought Radko Gudas would have as many goals as Ovechkin at this point of the season.

 

[bacchist]

Yeah his shot is still 90 mph+ most of the time. He does have a tendency to shoot it through the goaltenders armpits (whatever that's called in hockey language?) and i've noticed he keeps on hitting the goalies straight in the torso so might be an accuracy thing. It's weird though to have a 2/3 decline in shooting percentage like that.

Maybe his fathers passing did something.

I don't think it has anything to do with losing his father. I think we would have seen that start to manifest after he rejoined the team when they lost 4 straight and basically took themselves out of playoff contention while he was back in Russia dealing with it.

It's not really weird, just uncommon. Statistics and probabilities are just funny that way. We tend to read way too much into short term variance, and 28 games (104 shots on goal) is an extremely small sample size.

I pretty much only watch Caps games, so I can't say for sure, but I highly doubt 26 year old Matthew Tkachuk is washed, but he's going through the same thing. He and Ovechkin have similar career shooting percentages, but both are sub 5% so far this year.

He might need to make some adjustments to hit his stride with the new system, but he'll still get his goals. As long as he stays healthy, I fully expect him to pass Gretzky.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Inclusive…hah that’s adorable…..but we got brave covered. Hit the bricks.

 

[YippieKaey]

I don't think it has anything to do with losing his father. I think we would have seen that start to manifest after he rejoined the team when they lost 4 straight and basically took themselves out of playoff contention while he was back in Russia dealing with it.

It's not really weird, just uncommon. Statistics and probabilities are just funny that way. We tend to read way too much into short term variance, and 28 games (104 shots on goal) is an extremely small sample size.

I pretty much only watch Caps games, so I can't say for sure, but I highly doubt 26 year old Matthew Tkachuk is washed, but he's going through the same thing. He and Ovechkin have similar career shooting percentages, but both are sub 5% so far this year.

He might need to make some adjustments to hit his stride with the new system, but he'll still get his goals. As long as he stays healthy, I fully expect him to pass Gretzky.

Okay. Good point about Tkachuk, but he was pretty badly injured during last years playoffs so guessing that might have something to do with it. You're right about sample sizes but this amount of variation probably can't be explained by chance (too lazy to do the math but would love to see someone do it) and thus i wouldn't be surprised if there is indeed a variable that has changed somewhere.

 

[BallardEra]

There is a strong likelihood that he retires at some point next season.

 

[Raikkonen]

Ppl were much more optimistic here in this thread some 5 pages ago

Enough time passed to conclude he's not scoring the amount required to catch 99 before his current contract ends

I have to reiterate that I see retiring as a real option if he can't get better suddenly (if it's injury or smth)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

$20 mil reasons for him not to quit….

 

[Fred22406Capsfan]

It's practically blasphemy to some but it's time for him to step aside. Probably won't but he's barely a shell of his former self. I just don't see a way for him to catch Gretzky. We're what, 46 games in and he doesn't have double digits in goals? Ouch.

 

[trick9]

There is no reason for him to step aside if he wants to play. While it tells you much about this team he's still useful and among the scoring leaders.

That being said it's propably time to take a reality check and have a conversation with him about the rebuild. This team isn't going anywhere even if they wanted to. We are actually at a point where we could blow this up and spend some assets we bring in and cap space wisely to have better offense around him to help him score more.

As is who is our best playmaker? Ovechkin himself? Get him help in that regard while moving other assets that bring value back. Go after a real playmaker in the summer after Kuznetsov is bought out.

 

[Acallabeth]

There is no reason for him to step aside if he wants to play. While it tells you much about this team he's still useful and among the scoring leaders.

That being said it's propably time to take a reality check and have a conversation with him about the rebuild. This team isn't going anywhere even if they wanted to. We are actually at a point where we could blow this up and spend some assets we bring in and cap space wisely to have better offense around him to help him score more.

As is who is our best playmaker? Ovechkin himself? Get him help in that regard while moving other assets that bring value back. Go after a real playmaker in the summer after Kuznetsov is bought out.

Totally agree. There's a reason AO's assists per game rate is in the 2009 territory, and he leads the team in primary assists (which he never does). And that reason isn't that he suddenly sucks or somehow decided 'not to prepare for the season'.

A defensive team that sucks at defense and has only two decent passers, one of whom is an old defenseman and another plays with the least effort in the NHL is the very worst case scenario for Ovechkin's goal scoring. Relax a bit. Let the guys play fun hockey. It is much healthier for the entire team.

 

[crazy8888]

There is no reason for him to step aside if he wants to play. While it tells you much about this team he's still useful and among the scoring leaders.

That being said it's propably time to take a reality check and have a conversation with him about the rebuild. This team isn't going anywhere even if they wanted to. We are actually at a point where we could blow this up and spend some assets we bring in and cap space wisely to have better offense around him to help him score more.

As is who is our best playmaker? Ovechkin himself? Get him help in that regard while moving other assets that bring value back. Go after a real playmaker in the summer after Kuznetsov is bought out.

Exactly! I know Ovi set the bar high but the whole if you ain't catching Gretzky then you might as well retire thing is honestly making me nauseous. Some people would die just to play one game in nhl, yet Ovi who leads his team in points needs to retire because by game 46 he is not in the double digits. Got used to all this hate over the years but to see all this hate coming from caps fans is truly demoralizing. Some folks are acting like he is Brett Hull in 2005. What the hell man.

Here is reality check. The team sucks from top to bottom. We probably have the worst center depth in the whole league. Undoubtably the slowest team in the league. The needs have been left unaddressed for years now. Biggest free agent signing in the last what 5 years or so is a goalie with pretty average underlying stats. Waiver picks ups. Got some guy out of Calgary who could not make the team there. Barely able to make this team. Mantha! Biggest change on defense came with trading away a first round pick for a undersized defenseman who the other team did not see as part of their future. $9+M center calls it quits 2 weeks into the season. $7+M center called it quits back in 2018 apparently. Oh and to top it all off they pick a rookie coach (# 4 rookie coach since 05) to lead this team of waiver wire superstars. Perfect!

at 38 Ovechkin is playing as good as you can want a 38 year old to play. Obviously there is room for improvement but overall he is a product of this team that GMBM scotch taped together. People seem to think that caps made a decision a while back to retool instead of rebuild and now its biting them in the ass. There was no retool. Just patchwork. They were old last year, they got older this year. This roster was always doomed to fail. Ovi scoring more goals this year would not fix anything, only mask the problems.

 

[Raikkonen]

What hate are you talking about? Guy is playing since 16. That's a lot of mileage. The time to stop it has come. He only signed that long contract to beat 99. If you deem that impossible you can stop. Money is not a problem at all.

 

[Corby78]

Unfortunately we have the wrong owner for this situation. This is where you need the team to have an honest talk with Ovie after the year.

“We got forced into a rebuild, we aren’t going to be good while you are still here, your not getting to 99.

Let’s build a plan that we both are happy with.”

 

[Acallabeth]

"We got forced into a rebuild, we aren’t going to be good while you are still here, your not getting to 99."

Way to leave the greatest player in franchise history bitter and ruin a 20-year-long relationship of mutual trust and support.

As if some guy who doesn't know how to put the skates on would tell Ovechkin whether he's getting to 895 or not after one bad half-season with a terrible team around him.

 

[Capitals40]

Way to leave the greatest player in franchise history bitter and ruin a 20-year-long relationship of mutual trust and support.

As if some guy who doesn't know how to put the skates on would tell Ovechkin whether he's getting to 895 or not after one bad half-season with a terrible team around him.

If they don't do a rebuild, they will still be as bad as if they did a rebuild.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If they don't do a rebuild, they will still be as bad as if they did a rebuild.

You either forgot or weren’t around for the last one….it will be way worse than now.