Alex Ovechkin - 500 Goals

[blundluntman]

As close to a lock as you can get for 900 at this point. Easy to forget with all his goal-scoring but he's also a ppg player at age 39. Call me crazy but I'm curious how close he gets to 1k if he decides to stick around another 3 years or so.

 

[Sentinel]

Yes, it's fun to go back 9 years.

 

[895]

Anytime you bump a 9 year old there will be bad takes.

I’m pleasantly surprised this thread didn’t have that many except one or two trolls.

Most people thought he could do it with some good injury luck and whatnot.

Good read

 

[BallardEra]

7 years ago on this day Ovechkin scored career goal #600 in his 990th game. (March 12, 2018)

Since then he has scored 286 more goals in 485 games from age 32-39 seasons.

That's a .5897 goals per game pace and averages out to 48.4 goals over 82 games.

 

[BallardEra]

Well, he definitely didn’t limp to the goals record with 42 goals in 61 games, after missing 16 games with a broken fibula at the age of 39:


Ovechkin: 895 goals in 1487 games.

Gretzky: 894 goals in 1487 games.

 

[authentic]

He is the best player of this generation and he will overtake the 894 goals from Gretzky in the regular season...

Good call

 

[authentic]

Well, he definitely didn’t limp to the goals record with 42 goals in 61 games, after missing 16 games with a broken fibula at the age of 39:


Ovechkin: 895 goals in 1487 games.

Gretzky: 894 goals in 1487 games.

I still can’t get over stuff like this, completely different eras and types of players yet it came down to him beating him by 1 goal in the same amount of games over a 20 year career.

 

[authentic]

Also Gretzky’s last goal was also against the Islanders, and Washington won the draft lottery in April. 6th to draft Ovechkin.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Good call

That was a good call. It's too bad that poster hasn't logged in since mid 2023. He deserves props for that!

 

[Danny46]

He is the best player of this generation and he will overtake the 894 goals from Gretzky in the regular season...

I was right

 

[BallardEra]

I was right

Insane call.

 

[bobholly39]

As close to a lock as you can get for 900 at this point. Easy to forget with all his goal-scoring but he's also a ppg player at age 39. Call me crazy but I'm curious how close he gets to 1k if he decides to stick around another 3 years or so.

I don't think he's going to hit 1000 because it really sounds like he's going to leave after next year.

Is he physically able to play in the NHL long enough to hit 1000? I would say.....yes. Which is insane. He can literally come back and hit 50 goals each of the next 2 years and I wouldn't be shocked...maybe be more conservative and say he does it in 3 years instead of 2. But he's still scoring at a 50 goal clip, even at age 39. In fact - he's scoring at a ~57 goal pace, which would be the 2nd highest total of his career had he played all 82 games and kept pace.

That being said, in my opinion - Ovechkin has nothing to stay in the NHL for beyond next year. He not only beat the goal-record this year - but he's also shockingly leading the Capitals to the best record in the NHL - and has a real shot at the cup...and maybe again next year. So - he might win another cup, or he might not - but I can't imagine he'd have a better shot at a cup in 2 years than he does this year or next...goal record beaten...absolutely nothing left to stick around for. So I think he likely does leave the NHL after next year.

 

[blundluntman]

I don't think he's going to hit 1000 because it really sounds like he's going to leave after next year.

Is he physically able to play in the NHL long enough to hit 1000? I would say.....yes. Which is insane. He can literally come back and hit 50 goals each of the next 2 years and I wouldn't be shocked...maybe be more conservative and say he does it in 3 years instead of 2. But he's still scoring at a 50 goal clip, even at age 39. In fact - he's scoring at a ~57 goal pace, which would be the 2nd highest total of his career had he played all 82 games and kept pace.

That being said, in my opinion - Ovechkin has nothing to stay in the NHL for beyond next year. He not only beat the goal-record this year - but he's also shockingly leading the Capitals to the best record in the NHL - and has a real shot at the cup...and maybe again next year. So - he might win another cup, or he might not - but I can't imagine he'd have a better shot at a cup in 2 years than he does this year or next...goal record beaten...absolutely nothing left to stick around for. So I think he likely does leave the NHL after next year.

Yeah didn't even realize he'd mentioned going to the KHL until he tied the record. It would be cool to see him go after it but as long as he breaks 900 it's all good with me. He's done more than enough in the league anyway like you said though. Nothing left to prove. (I'd still like to see him go for it just in case Ovi lurks the boards though)

 

[Voight]

Could be just me but he'll likely have much better goal scoring years later in his career than Shanahan or even Gartner did.

Well, I was right (for once)

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Since 1996-97 (in 'Dead puck era')

Age 31: Joe Sakic 54, Mario Lemieux 50, Alexander Mogilny 43
Age 32: Peter Bondra 45, Brett Hull 42, Luc Robitaille 39
Age 33: Jaromir Jagr 54, Daniel Alfredsson 43, Jarome Iginla 43
Age 34: Luc Robitaille 37, Alexei Kovalev 35, Chris Kunitz 35
Age 35: Daniel Alfredsson 40, Teemu Selanne 40, Mario Lemieux 35 (43 GP)
Age 36: Teemu Selanne 48, Brett Hull 39, Mark Messier 36
Age 37: Brendan Shanahan 40, Joe Sakic 36, Mike Gartner 32
Age 38: Brett Hull 37, Martin St. Louis 30, Brendan Shanahan 29 (67 GP)
Age 39: Daniel Alfredsson 27, Teemu Selanne 27 (54 GP), Joe Nieuwendyk 26 (65 GP)
Age 40: Teemu Selanne 31 (73 GP), Mark Messier 24, Mark Recchi 23
Age 41: Teemu Selanne 26, Jaromir Jagr 24, Daniel Alfredsson 18 (68 GP)
Age 42: Mark Messier 18, Jaromir Jagr 17, Mark Recchi 14



So, IF Ovechkin finishes this seasons with 50 goals AND averages 40 goals up to 35 age for the next 4 seasons, THEN he would need to average 30 goals up to his 42 age to beat Gretzky or to average 17 goals up to his 42 age to beat Howe.

In hindsight, it's refreshing to see that even those who were optimistic OV could do it were conservative about how he might.

"Up to age 42"

 

[Voight]

Anytime you bump a 9 year old there will be bad takes.

I’m pleasantly surprised this thread didn’t have that many except one or two trolls.

Most people thought he could do it with some good injury luck and whatnot.

Good read

Which surprises me cause on this site (in other threads) and elsewhere tons of people were saying he was done as an elite goal scorer around this time (2016, 2017) and would likely just retire when his contract ended.

 

[Matsun]

A really cool thing about OV is that that he will go down as a guy that never really stopped scoring goals at an elite level. Even if he has a bad season next year and then leaves, I think most people would still think he would be fully capable of bouncing back the season after if he was staying.

 

[Mr Nogatco]

Omg, 1000 goals, are you kidding me? He is 30 and about to score 500.

Would be tickling 1,000 now if not for various work stoppages

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Would be tickling 1,000 now if not for various work stoppages

You're seriously going to cherry pick nine-year-old posts?

(And perhaps Ovechkin has a major injury in one of the work stoppage games, or the extra wear and tear grinds him down. It's easy to speculate but you never know.)

 

[Mr Nogatco]

Well, he definitely didn’t limp to the goals record with 42 goals in 61 games, after missing 16 games with a broken fibula at the age of 39:


Ovechkin: 895 goals in 1487 games.

Gretzky: 894 goals in 1487 games.

Mind blowing

You're seriously going to cherry pick nine-year-old posts?

(And perhaps Ovechkin has a major injury in one of the work stoppage games, or the extra wear and tear grinds him down. It's easy to speculate but you never know.)

Isn’t that why the thread was bumped?