Alex Ovechkin - 500 Goals

[Voight]

So with last nights OT Winner against the Rangers, The GR8 is at 499 goals and has a chance to reach 500 tonight in Washington against the Sens.

Ovechkin is among the quickest NHL players to reach the edge of one of hockey's time-honored scoring marks.

Only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy and Brett Hull scored 500 goals in fewer than 800 games.

Phil Esposito scored his 500th in his 803rd game.

Saturday marked Ovechkin's 800th NHL game. Since entering the league in 2005-06, Ovechkin has scored 147 more goals and collected 46 more points than any other player.

Anyone know where he would place age-wise? 30 is pretty young especially when considering he didnt make his debut until he was 20, and is now playing in a low-scoring era.

Regardless, Congrats Ovy, and heres to another 500

Click to read more...

 

[vivalavili]

With this rate he could get to 1000 before the end of his career, that is just amazing

 

[Danny46]

He is the best player of this generation and he will overtake the 894 goals from Gretzky in the regular season...

 

[blogofmike]

So with last nights OT Winner against the Rangers, The GR8 is at 499 goals and has a chance to reach 500 tonight in Washington against the Sens.



Anyone know where he would place age-wise? 30 is pretty young especially when considering he didnt make his debut until he was 20, and is now playing in a low-scoring era.

Regardless, Congrats Ovy, and heres to another 500

Not sure about age, but he'll be 5th fastest in terms of games played if he can beat Espo's 500 in 803.

Ahead of him are:

Gretzky, 575 GP, Age 25
Lemieux, 605, 30
Bossy, 647, 28
Br. Hull, 693, 32

He's likely younger than everyone else who took more GP, as Espo is next with 803 GP (age 32) and that's a sizeable jump.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

895 goals is still a pretty long ways to go. Let's say Ovechkin finishes the season with exactly 50 goals for 525 career goals. Ovechkin would need 370 goals in the second half of his career (age 31 onward) to hit 895.

Here is the list of players who have managed to score 370 goals from age 31 onward:

Gordie Howe: 383 (923 games played)

Yes, that's it.

Of course, another way of looking at it would be goals per game. Ovechkin would need to average 0.45 goals per game for the next ten seasons if he plays full 82-game seasons to squeak past Gretzky. To be safe, he'd probably need to average 0.5 goals per game since he's bound to miss some games.

Only Phil Esposito and Mike Gartner have averaged 0.45 goals per game or better from age 31 onward, but those two played only 8 seasons. Had they forced themselves a couple more years, their averages would have definitely been lowered.

That being said, Brett Hull did average 0.44 goals per game in ten seasons from age 31 onward. (Howe averaged 0.42 goals per game in 13 NHL seasons from age 31 onward.)

So it's not a certainty that Ovechkin would pass 894 (or even 800). I'm pretty sure that he'll end up at least 4th in career goals barring any significant injury, though.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Yeah I don't know if Ovi will hit 895 because he would need his speed to continue to score at the current pace and without it, maybe he's closer to a 30ish goal scorer.

My expectation though is that the NHL MAY see the light and open up the game somewhat in the next few years to get scoring up but cnsidering that he did most of it in dead puck era 2.0, it's super impressive.

 

[BenchBrawl]

It is amazing to score 500 goals in under 820 games as this is the 50 goals per current season pace.

 

[seventieslord]

Omg, 1000 goals, are you kidding me? He is 30 and about to score 500.

 

[Hardyvan123]

895 goals is still a pretty long ways to go. Let's say Ovechkin finishes the season with exactly 50 goals for 525 career goals. Ovechkin would need 370 goals in the second half of his career (age 31 onward) to hit 895.

Here is the list of players who have managed to score 370 goals from age 31 onward:

Gordie Howe: 383 (923 games played)

Yes, that's it.

Of course, another way of looking at it would be goals per game. Ovechkin would need to average 0.45 goals per game for the next ten seasons if he plays full 82-game seasons to squeak past Gretzky. To be safe, he'd probably need to average 0.5 goals per game since he's bound to miss some games.

Only Phil Esposito and Mike Gartner have averaged 0.45 goals per game or better from age 31 onward, but those two played only 8 seasons. Had they forced themselves a couple more years, their averages would have definitely been lowered.

That being said, Brett Hull did average 0.44 goals per game in ten seasons from age 31 onward. (Howe averaged 0.42 goals per game in 13 NHL seasons from age 31 onward.)

So it's not a certainty that Ovechkin would pass 894 (or even 800). I'm pretty sure that he'll end up at least 4th in career goals barring any significant injury, though.

AO is at 600 adjusted goals, good for 19th all time (another iron iconic milestone) and Jagr has 824 2nd behind Howe at 925.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_adjusted_career.html

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Ovechkin seems quite likely to hit 700 goals. I'd give him an outside chance at 800. But 895 is almost certainly out of reach.

Say he closes out the year at 525. He still needs another 9 years at a 41-goals to get himself up to 894 career goals. You know how many such years he has now? Seven. Eight if we assume he hits the mark this year.

Ovechkin will either need to remain an elite sniper to a much later age than anyone else ever has (not impossible, he's an incredible athlete), suddenly rip off a couple 70-goal seasons (this seems practically impossible unless there are drastic rule changes that increase scoring), or hang around as a productive non-elite player well into his 40's (Jagr is doing it, so not unprecedented I suppose).

An optimistic but conceivable scoring trend would be finishing this season with 50, followed by a couple more 50-goal seasons, a couple 40-goal seasons, and a couple 30-goal seasons. That would put him at 765 at age 37. But geez, he still needs 130 more at that point. That's another four years of solid 30-goal production, or six more at 20-goals. Those last 93 goals that Gretzky scored after passing Howe is what really put that record out of reach.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

With this rate he could get to 1000 before the end of his career, that is just amazing

That's not going to happen..

He will be lucky to hit 750...

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

 

[Hawksfan2828]

Omg, 1000 goals, are you kidding me? He is 30 and about to score 500.

Gretzky hit 500 at 25 lol...

I think he may hit 700-750, and that is being optimistic, but I think 650-700 is more likely.

 

[Voight]

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

People keep saying that, yet hes now 30 and 10 seasons in, hes never had a significant injury.

If you honestly think he's going to turn into Mike Richards, then I really dont know what to say.

 

[The Pale King]

Even when he loses a step or two, he's still got an absolutely world-class shot. Enough to keep him as a very good Power Play specialist into his late 30s I would think.

Say he's in an environment where he's no longer getting matched up against top pairing defensemen, where a team isn't focusing their entire defensive gameplan around shutting him down. That could definitely help push him past the 800 mark.

Then again there could be another lockout. Tough to say.

 

[seventieslord]

People keep saying that, yet hes now 30 and 10 seasons in, hes never had a significant injury.

If you honestly think he's going to turn into Mike Richards, then I really dont know what to say.

He doesn't have to turn into Mike Richards to fail to hit 1000 goals. You think he's going to score 50 for 10 more seasons? No one in history has ever done anything close to that.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Ovechkin seems quite likely to hit 700 goals. I'd give him an outside chance at 800. But 895 is almost certainly out of reach.

Say he closes out the year at 525. He still needs another 9 years at a 41-goals to get himself up to 894 career goals. You know how many such years he has now? Seven. Eight if we assume he hits the mark this year.

Ovechkin will either need to remain an elite sniper to a much later age than anyone else ever has (not impossible, he's an incredible athlete), suddenly rip off a couple 70-goal seasons (this seems practically impossible unless there are drastic rule changes that increase scoring), or hang around as a productive non-elite player well into his 40's (Jagr is doing it, so not unprecedented I suppose).

An optimistic but conceivable scoring trend would be finishing this season with 50, followed by a couple more 50-goal seasons, a couple 40-goal seasons, and a couple 30-goal seasons. That would put him at 765 at age 37. But geez, he still needs 130 more at that point. That's another four years of solid 30-goal production, or six more at 20-goals. Those last 93 goals that Gretzky scored after passing Howe is what really put that record out of reach.

What really put the record out of reach is Gretzky starting in 79-80 and AO starting in 05-06.

AO will (health permitting) easily pass everyone in adjusted goals by a wide enough margin to be the undisputed goal scoring career leader in NHL history IMO.

 

[The Panther]

AO will (health permitting) easily pass everyone in adjusted goals by a wide enough margin to be the undisputed goal scoring career leader in NHL history IMO.

Umm...

1) Nobody cares about "Adjusted goals". The very fact that you project an "adjusted" leader means that it WILL be disputed.

2) I'm not sure what your source is, but according to hockey-reference Ovechkin has about 600 'adjusted goals' and Gordie Howe has 925. Are you really confident that a healthy Ovechkin will score 325 more "adjusted goals"? I'm not.

3) We're all welcome to have our opinions on who is the "greatest". There is no stat that indisputably proves anything.

 

[Voight]

He doesn't have to turn into Mike Richards to fail to hit 1000 goals. You think he's going to score 50 for 10 more seasons? No one in history has ever done anything close to that.

That wasnt the point. Obviously he wont hit 1000 goals but to say hes going to fall of a cliff like Richhards did is just absurd.

 

[jcbio11]

That's not going to happen..

He will be lucky to hit 750...

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

I don't know, I remember people had been saying in this in all those Crosby vs Ovechkin threads HFboards used to be infected with some year ago. Stuff like he's bound to slow down, he'll be an ineffective scorer because his body will break down from all the running around and goalies figured out he's a one trick pony (obviously this was on the main board, not the history one). If anything, he has adjusted his game, doesn't hit as much as he used to (I guess? Don't have the numbers on this) and if anybody has slowed down it's actually Crosby. Hope he rebounds.

750 seems very reachable for him at this point. 800 possibly, would be amazing. Gretzky's record? Unlikely, as others have said in this thread.

 

[seventieslord]

Umm...

1) Nobody cares about "Adjusted goals". The very fact that you project an "adjusted" leader means that it WILL be disputed.

2) I'm not sure what your source is, but according to hockey-reference Ovechkin has about 600 'adjusted goals' and Gordie Howe has 925. Are you really confident that a healthy Ovechkin will score 325 more "adjusted goals"? I'm not.

3) We're all welcome to have our opinions on who is the "greatest". There is no stat that indisputably proves anything.

Well he's probably technically correct, and there's nothing all too mathematically flawed about adjusted stats (they make a lot more sense than raw stats).... But that said, I would not use career adjusted goals as a way of judging the greatest goal scorers of all-time. I'd probably start by looking at the number of times they led the league in goals. And there's a pretty good chance he'll soon be the all-time leader in that category. right?

That wasnt the point. Obviously he wont hit 1000 goals but to say hes going to fall of a cliff like Richhards did is just absurd.

That's a strawman, because no one thinks that. You're taking a legitimate point to an absurd level so you can refute it.

 

[Syckle78]

That's not going to happen..

He will be lucky to hit 750...

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

This is about as likely as the 1000 goal statement. Even if Ovie suddenly falls off a cliff speedwise in three years. He'll still remain a top notch sniper like Hull did. That shot and instinct isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[The Panther]

Well he's probably technically correct, and there's nothing all too mathematically flawed about adjusted stats (they make a lot more sense than raw stats)....

Make more sense in terms of what...?

There are different ways to adjust stats, and they're always going to make stars from lower-scoring eras look better than stars from higher-scoring eras who, in some cases, were much more dominant.

I personally don't think stats, in any way, are the starting point for judging the "best" players. What is the starting point is watching the player for years and seeing how he competes against his peers, and how he contributes to being part of a team.

Scoring totals are obviously going to fluctuate up and down over eras. We don't need 'Adjusted stats' to inform us that Rocket Richard was better than Dennis Maruk, or that Ovechkin is more dominant than Denis Savard.

But that said, I would not use career adjusted goals as a way of judging the greatest goal scorers of all-time.

That's exactly what I said in my last post.

I'd probably start by looking at the number of times they led the league in goals. And there's a pretty good chance he'll soon be the all-time leader in that category. right?

There's a chance, yes, but a small one. Hull did it 7 times by age 33. Ovechkin has done it 5 times, and is in the running this year but hasn't done it yet. Until you do it, you haven't done it.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Well, NHL.com just posted an estimate of Ovechkin's future production based on "the average scoring decrease of history's other great goal-scorers as they aged".

Converting from chart to table form:

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|49|574
2017-18|48|622
2018-19|43|665
2019-20|38|703
2020-21|42|745
2021-22|36|781
2022-23|29|810
2023-24|19|829
2024-25|16|845

I'm not sure why there's a sudden bump in at age 35. Here's my somewhat more conservative (but still wildly optimistic, IMHO) estimate after smoothing out that weird bump:

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|49|574
2017-18|48|622
2018-19|43|665
2019-20|38|703
2020-21|35|738
2021-22|29|767
2022-23|22|789
2023-24|19|808
2024-25|16|824

EDIT: NHL.com estimates Ovechkin scoring 320 goals in 9 seasons starting from his age 31 season. My somewhat pared-down estimate says 299 in 9 seasons. Not sure this passes the smell test... maybe? Esposito managed an incredible 319 goals in 8 seasons. Shanahan managed 262 goals in 9 seasons. Gartner had 259 goals in 8 seasons. Discuss (or not... it's up to you ).

 

[BenchBrawl]

It's pretty exciting to have something (I would take anything at this point) historical to witness by a forward.That Ovechkin is now in the conversation for greatest goalscorer ever is pretty exciting and a rare event for us hockey history junkies.

In this era of disappointment and where most top players are stripped of their opportunities for true glory either by injuries or the nature of modern hockey which castrated talent, it's fun to catch a break.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

New conservative estimate (assuming exactly 50 goals for Ovechkin this season):

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|46|571
2017-18|42|613
2018-19|37|650
2019-20|33|683
2020-21|29|712
2021-22|25|737
2022-23|21|758
2023-24|15|773
2024-25|14|787

That's 262 goals in 9 seasons, same as Brendan Shanahan. One more season after this one being a favorite for the Rocket. Three more years after this one being an elite goal scorer. The remaining years being a compiler. Fifteen consecutive 30-goal seasons when it's all said and done. Third most career goals after calling it quits. That seems pretty fair.

Exciting to watch what actually happens, as BenchBrawl says. Let the games begin!