Proposal: Alex Nedeljkovic to Edmonton

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I mean, Pickard has been as much as we could ask for from a backup this year. I don't think he's the problem necessarily, although if Oiler management is set on Skinner being part of the team in the future, we might have to upgrade on Pickard just as a piece of insurance. Pickard is clearly a backup, and a good one, but he's not a 1B, and it wouldn't be ideal to have him come in to bail out Skinner in the playoffs yet again this year.

As numerous people myself included have pointed out, Skinner and Pickard rank pretty low in GSAx and play relatively poorly given the quality of their team.

I have a soft spot for Pickard, but he was brought in as a third-string goalie and that's what he should really still be. Ned (GSAx 27th - min. 20 games) is performing better than Stu in GSAx (GSAx 35th - min. 20 games) on a much worse team, behind a defense that's even worse now than at the start of the year, and he's actually still somehow stringing together strong performances. It's not like Stu playing behind Nurse-Kulak when they were doing well, Ned is playing behind an aging Letang and Karlsson neglecting all zero defensive awareness, and then Vinny Desharnais and guys slightly above, at, or below his level...

Again, if there's no other goalies, adding Ned and keeping on Pickard as our third string is better than the status quo come playoff time, and his 2.5 cap hit makes it relatively low risk.

There needs to be some kind of goalie insurance in the playoffs anyway given how often Stu implodes and how unproven Pickard is. And our Bakersfield goalies inspire zero confidence right now.

If we can get Gibson at 50% retained, which I hope more than anything else we get, perfect, but it's looking like Vej isn't available, so if we can't get either guy, better to hedge our bets with Ned than do nothing. You just know Stu will collapse as he's done the last two playoffs...and his last game...and the game two games before that...and the game three games before that, and Pickard's GSAx (75th) is even lower than Stu's, which is even more concerning when you realize that Pickard has mostly played the weakest teams all season. And I say this as a fan of Picks who is very grateful that he saved our playoffs in the Vancouver series.
 
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And it's very obvious that you only included 2022-2023 because that year was the ony year where they had a notable difference :dunno:

Nedjelkovic is pretty middling, he's a platoon goalie for sure, but saying he's not an upgrade on Pickard is pretty silly. He's a 1B goalie similar to Skinner. Hence why their stats in the last 2 years are extremely similar.

Or another way to put it that was nicely stated above: if Stuart Skinner was still what he was in 2022-2023, the Oilers wouldn't be worried about their goaltending.
You think a swing of 5.3 goals isn't significant? No wonder you guys think Nedeljkovic has any value. In the other Ned to EDM thread a Pens fan wanted more for Ned than the Avs gave up for Blackwood.

Even if we accept the bolded as true, why would we want our goaltending to be in the hands of two guys with gigantic question marks and more poor years than good years? I'm not about to have the wool pulled over my eyes by a nice 8 game stretch.
 
You think a swing of 5.3 goals isn't significant? No wonder you guys think Nedeljkovic has any value. In the other Ned to EDM thread a Pens fan wanted more for Ned than the Avs gave up for Blackwood.

Where is that number coming from? In the last 2 years, Nedjelkovic has a GSAx of -1.7. Skinner is at +0.3. It's a 2 GSAx difference over 2 seasons of play, that is nothing. They're both middling platoon goalies.

Also you're just literally lying about what Penguins fans are asking for. Every Penguins fan is asking for either a 2nd or 3rd for Nedjelkovic.
 
Where is that number coming from? In the last 2 years, Nedjelkovic has a GSAx of -1.7. Skinner is at +0.3. It's a 2 GSAx difference over 2 seasons of play, that is nothing. They're both middling platoon goalies.

Also you're just literally lying about what Penguins fans are asking for. Every Penguins fan is asking for either a 2nd or 3rd for Nedjelkovic.
you said 2022-23 was the only year they had a notable difference. It's not, since last year Skinner was +2.0 and Ned was -3.3. That's a big difference. You're wanting to lump them all together because it makes Ned look better, but not 2022-23 because it make him look worse.

I'm not lying.

Ned
Lizotte

2nd
3rd
Pickard
Podkolzin

 
you said 2022-23 was the only year they had a notable difference. It's not, since last year Skinner was +2.0 and Ned was -3.3. That's a big difference. You're wanting to lump them all together because it makes Ned look better, but not 2022-23 because it make him look worse.

No, I'm not including 2022-2023 because Skinner is blatantly obviously not the caliber of goalie he was in that season. Hence why people are still talking about the Oilers needing goalie help.

Again, they're both middling platoon goalies. You wanting to go back 3 years to when Skinner was actually more than that doesn't change what the two are now.

I'm not lying. The thread was closed, but the ask was:

Ned
Lizotte

2nd
3rd
Pickard
Podkolzin

So you're just conveniently ignoring that Lizotte is in that deal as well?
 
No, I'm not including 2022-2023 because Skinner is blatantly obviously not the caliber of goalie he was in that season. Hence why people are still talking about the Oilers needing goalie help.

Again, they're both middling platoon goalies. You wanting to go back 3 years to when Skinner was actually more than that doesn't change what the two are now.



So you're just conveniently ignoring that Lizotte is in that deal as well?
Skinner's currently posting his worst GSAX of his career, and it's still better than Ned has been at any point in the last four years prior to the hot streak he's currently on. Nedeljkovic has posted negative GSAX for the prior four years before this one, check for yourself and you're trying to sell high before he crashes back down to earth. I get it, you're rebuilding and want to extract value wherever you can, but Ned is not the answer here. He's simply not good enough.

"THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN YOU'RE LYING"
*proves it happened*
"YA OKAY WELL..."

Yes, I saw the inclusion of the injury prone fourth liner making almost two million. You understand that Podkolzin has more value to us than he does, right?
 
Skinner's currently posting his worst GSAX of his career, and it's still better than Ned has been at any point in the last four years prior to the hot streak he's currently on. Nedeljkovic has posted negative GSAX for the prior four years before this one, check for yourself and you're trying to sell high before he crashes back down to earth. I get it, you're rebuilding and want to extract value wherever you can, but Ned is not the answer here. He's simply not good enough.

We don't know if Ned isn't good enough. He's on a terrible team that is in the middle of a firesale, just lost one of its best (or only?) defensive defenseman and hasn't totally collapsed in net, and in fact, it's quite the opposite. Skinner is on one of the best teams in the league and has had an .870 or worse in 35% of his games this season. Past performance doesn't dictate current performance. Yesterday's price is not today's price. But since we are talking about past performance, Ned did really well in the first and only time he ever had a chance in the postseason (.920 over 9 games in 2020-21)

Again, I want Gibson or Vejmelka. I'm sure you do too. But I won't say no to Ned if the option is him or nothing. Do you seriously believe Skinner, who by every account has regressed over the past two seasons, will somehow perform better in these playoffs than last year's? Because last year and the year before he was more bad than good in the postseason. Something that conveniently gets forgotten because "the Dallas series" and "Game 7."

When Skinner implodes again in the playoffs, I don't feel confident in having him replaced by a goalie who even the team doesn't trust against playoff contenders and whose GSAx is still worse than Skinner's despite strictly playing bottom-feeders...and who is only in the NHL after being a mid-career AHL goalie because the team's intended starter was a dismal failure.

I'm grateful Pickard stepped in and saved us, but this team was very lucky Demko was hurt and Vancouver had to play their AHL goalie against us. There's no guarantee of us having similar luck with goalies this year.
 
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We don't know if Ned isn't good enough. He's on a terrible team that is in the middle of a firesale, just lost one of its best (or only?) defensive defenseman and hasn't totally collapsed in net, and in fact, it's quite the opposite. Skinner is on one of the best teams in the league and has had an .870 or worse in 35% of his games this season. Past performance doesn't dictate current performance. Yesterday's price is not today's price.

Again, I want Gibson or Vejmelka. But I won't say no to Ned if the option is him or Cam Talbot or nothing. Do you seriously believe Skinner, who by every account has regressed over the past two seasons, will somehow perform better in these playoffs than last year's? Because last year and the year before he was more bad than good in the postseason. Something that conveniently gets forgotten because "the Dallas series" and "Game 7."
Talbot is a much better option, IMO. We know him, he knows us, and he's shown that his top level is much higher than Ned's.

We have years of information on Nedeljkovic. From 2022-2024 he posted a combined -19.1 GSAX. This isn't a good player, or one that should be relied on to take playoff starts. I'm all for adding another option in goal, but Ned's not the guy. I'm not down for spending a 2nd to get a guy that's been wobbly as all hell for most of the last four years outside of a decent stretch this year.

Also keep in mind:

Nedeljkovic Oct 1 2023 to Jan 15 2025: .896 SV%
Nedeljkovic Jan 16 - Feb 12: .934 SV%

The Pens fans trying to tell you that he's a real good add and Edmonton should definitely spring on him and send them a second are doing so because they want to get value for their asset, not because they actually think he's good and he'd help us. He's a largely poor goalie that is in the middle of the best streak he's had since he was a member of the Hurricanes.
 
Talbot is a much better option, IMO. We know him, he knows us, and he's shown that his top level is much higher than Ned's.

We have years of information on Nedeljkovic. From 2022-2024 he posted a combined -19.1 GSAX. This isn't a good player, or one that should be relied on to take playoff spots. I'm all for adding another option in goal, but Ned's not the guy. I'm not down for spending a 2nd to get a guy that's been wobbly as all hell for most of the last four years outside of a decent stretch this year.

Also keep in mind:

Nedeljkovic Oct 1 2023 to Jan 15 2025: .896 SV%
Nedeljkovic Jan 16 - Feb 12: .934 SV%

The Pens fans trying to tell you that he's a real good add and Edmonton should definitely spring on him and send them a second are doing so because they want to get value for their asset, not because they actually think he's good and he'd help us. He's a largely poor goalie that is in the middle of the best streak he's had since he was a member of the Hurricanes.

Again, you need to exclude data from two other seasons before we can have a serious discussion. Every season is different. That's why we're seriously considering Vejmelka and Gibson right now instead of laugh-reacting any proposal for them.

I posted this recently when someone else suggested Talbot because I was curious about him as well:

Talbot is better than no move, but might be just as inconsistent as Stu. Talbot has 12 Games with a save percentage under .870 in 31 games, so that means in 39% of his games he has a save percentage under .870, which is worse than 35% of Stu's games being under .870. The only asterix is that, much like all the other available goalies, he's playing behind a much worse defense in Detroit. Talbot has also had 4 games under .800 (Stu has 5), so he's prone to collapses as well and even had a Stu-like implosion in his last game. Gibson and Vejmelka look like steadier options.

However, Talbot is 16th in GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 games), and actually right behind Vejmelka and ahead of teammate Lyon. Skinner is 35th in GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 games) and has only played in six more games.

Here's how Talbot fares against some top teams:

vs FLO (.953 - 41 saves)
vs LAK (.920 & .925)

BUT...

vs TOR (.762...which is worse than either of Stu's games against Toronto)

That said, if there is no other deal on the table, go for it. Better to add Talbot for cheap than stay the course. But he would be my distant fourth choice based on who I assume is available...
 
Again, you need to exclude data from two other seasons before we can have a serious discussion. Every season is different. That's why we're seriously considering Vejmelka and Gibson right now instead of laugh-reacting any proposal for them.

I posted this recently when someone else suggested Talbot because I was curious about him as well:

Talbot is better than no move, but might be just as inconsistent as Stu. Talbot has 12 Games with a save percentage under .870 in 31 games, so that means in 39% of his games he has a save percentage under .870, which is worse than 35% of Stu's games being under .870. The only asterix is that, much like all the other available goalies, he's playing behind a much worse defense in Detroit. Talbot has also had 4 games under .800 (Stu has 5), so he's prone to collapses as well and even had a Stu-like implosion in his last game. Gibson and Vejmelka look like steadier options.

However, Talbot is 16th in GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 games), and actually right behind Vejmelka and ahead of teammate Lyon. Skinner is 35th in GSAx per 60 (minimum 20 games) and has only played in six more games.

Here's how Talbot fares against some top teams:

vs FLO (.953 - 41 saves)
vs LAK (.920 & .925)

BUT...

vs TOR (.762...which is worse than either of Stu's games against Toronto)

That said, if there is no other deal on the table, go for it. Better to add Talbot for cheap than stay the course. But he would be my distant fourth choice based on who I assume is available...
Why? Because if you exclude the games he's bad, he's super good? I'm not chucking two entire seasons of data just because they're bad for your argument, haha.

Vejmelka has been up and down. Two of his last four seasons were good, two not so good. Ned was very poor in three of his last four. He's also been good all season long this year, not just an eight game stretch that could very well be a flash in the pan.

.870 is a cherry picked number. Nedeljkovic is no stranger to yoyoing up and down. He had an .879 in the entire month of december.

Also, look at the teams he's getting in against. Part of Edmonton's problem is we can't trust Pickard with starts against good teams. The "omg he's been so good lately" teams he's been playing against in his last 8 starts include games against juggernauts like the Rangers, Nashville, Utah, San Jose, Anaheim, and Buffalo. Getting another guy that can put up decent numbers against popgun offenses but we have to carefully control his starts isn't an upgrade, that's just Pickard with extra steps (he's better than Pickard, but he's also more than double his cap hit).
 
Why? Because if you exclude the games he's bad, he's super good? I'm not chucking two entire seasons of data just because they're bad for your argument, haha.

Vejmelka has been up and down. Two of his last four seasons were good, two not so good. Ned was very poor in three of his last four. He's also been good all season long this year, not just an eight game stretch that could very well be a flash in the pan.

No, because they're irrelevant for the exact reason I gave that you conveniently ignored. We wouldn't want Gibson or Vejmelka a year ago and would laugh at the proposal. What changed? Oh yeah...it's a new season. Should we go after Jarry too and ignore his numbers because he was good a couple seasons ago? No. It's pointless and it's all you have because you're desperate to prove your point instead of actually trying to determine what is best for this team.

Guess what, this isn't a long-term gamble, we don't have a massive window to win the Cup anymore. The time to win is now and you seem to be missing that point entirely. Go with who is hot, not who used to be.

.870 is a cherry picked number. Nedeljkovic is no stranger to yoyoing up and down. He had an .879 in the entire month of december.

Oh, and how was Skinner in the month of October since you're cherry picking single months where a goalie played bad? .872. And second or third last in the entire league in GSAx until what, December? And still behind Ned like he's been all season, on a Pens team where the Oilers made them look like a beer league outfit even when the Oilers were still way behind in the standings from where they are now... Which was a totally different game from the one in January, btw, where Ned made 40 saves and goalied us after...Stu had yet another first period implosion that set us back early.

No, .870 is a number that looks bad to everybody in almost any era so I picked it to prove a point. Skinner has had 13 games below that number throughout the season, including the last game he played and the one two games before that and the one three games before that. He's continued imploding even when the team has played well.

Also, look at the teams he's getting in against. Part of Edmonton's problem is we can't trust Pickard with starts against good teams. The "omg he's been so good lately" teams he's been playing against in his last 8 starts include games against juggernauts like the Rangers, Nashville, Utah, San Jose, Anaheim, and Buffalo. Getting another guy that can put up decent numbers against popgun offenses but we have to carefully control his starts isn't an upgrade, that's just Pickard with extra steps (he's better than Pickard, but he's also more than double his cap hit).

Except Ned has a way better GSAx than Pickard with a heavier workload, so your argument falters when you leave out that point, and he has a better GSAx than Stu.

And the best part of your response is that you made sure to exclude the two playoff teams from his last eight starts, which are LA (where Ned had 25 saves and a .962 in a win against the Kings on January 20th) and New Jersey (where he had a .905 without Pettersen on D). Is it because I would've mentioned Pickard's .813 and only 13 saves against New Jersey in our one game against them?

Hi $2.5 is not impossible to make work and is not impossible to make go away. The Pens have one retention spot. The ask still won't be much based on the responses in this thread. And we probably don't have to give up anybody to do it. I'm not married to this idea as I've stated, but as a Plan C it isn't the worst idea.
 
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Obviously a fan of Ned.

He's a largely poor goalie that is in the middle of the best streak he's had since he was a member of the Hurricanes.
As a starter (Feb - May 21, 21-22 season, Jan-Feb 25) he has been at least .009 better than any other goalie on the team. As a backup, he has been equivalent to the starter. Given the opportunity to be the starter, Ned has proven effective. It is also true he isn't one of the few goalies that can significantly outperform the team in front of him.
 
No, because they're irrelevant for the exact reason I gave that you conveniently ignored. We wouldn't want Gibson or Vejmelka a year ago and would laugh at the proposal. What changed? Oh yeah...it's a new season. Should we go after Jarry too and ignore his numbers because he was good a couple seasons ago? No. It's pointless and it's all you have because you're desperate to prove your point instead of actually trying to determine what is best for this team.

Guess what, this isn't a long-term gamble, we don't have a massive window to win the Cup anymore. The time to win is now and you seem to be missing that point entirely. Go with who is hot, not who used to be.



Oh, and how was Skinner in the month of October since you're cherry picking single months where a goalie played bad? .872. And second or third last in the entire league in GSAx until what, December? And still behind Ned like he's been all season, on a Pens team where the Oilers made them look like a beer league outfit even when the Oilers were still way behind in the standings from where they are now... Which was a totally different game from the one in January, btw, where Ned made 40 saves and goalied us after...Stu had yet another first period implosion that set us back early.

No, .870 is a number that looks bad to everybody in almost any era so I picked it to prove a point. Skinner has had 13 games below that number throughout the season, including the last game he played and the one two games before that and the one three games before that. He's continued imploding even when the team has played well.



Except Ned has a way better GSAx than Pickard with a heavier workload, so your argument falters when you leave out that point, and he has a better GSAx than Stu.

And the best part of your response is that you made sure to exclude the two playoff teams from his last eight starts, which are LA (where Ned had 25 saves and a .962 in a win against the Kings on January 20th) and New Jersey (where he had a .905 without Pettersen on D). Is it because I would've mentioned Pickard's .813 and only 13 saves against New Jersey in our one game against them?

Hi $2.5 is not impossible to make work and is not impossible to make go away. The Pens have one retention spot. The ask still won't be much based on the responses in this thread. And we probably don't have to give up anybody to do it. I'm not married to this idea as I've stated, but as a Plan C it isn't the worst idea.
You're not even listening anymore.

The fact that we don't have a massive window anymore is why I am so firmly against Ned as the option. We don't need a slightly better backup goalie. We need a legitimate 1A/1B option that could potentially take the net away from Skinner if he falters. Ned isn't that guy. Aside from a hot streak that isn't even ten games long, he hasn't been good since he left Carolina.

Hell if we're getting down to INDIVIDUAL STARTS against playoff teams, Pickard had a .967 against MIN, a .923 against VAN, and another .912 against MIN. Any goalie can have a good game one-off here and there. We need consistency. Ned is not consistent. In that manner, he's too much like Skinner.

A team leaning on Nedeljkovic to win them a Cup is quite simply not winning a cup. He's not good enough, he doesn't have enough of a track record as the guy that can come in and stabilize the goaltending. There are multiple options better than he is. His numbers over the last two years are BARELY better than Pickard's from a GSAX perspective, which, by the way, take the quality of the team in front of him into account.
 
Obviously a fan of Ned.


As a starter (Feb - May 21, 21-22 season, Jan-Feb 25) he has been at least .009 better than any other goalie on the team. As a backup, he has been equivalent to the starter. Given the opportunity to be the starter, Ned has proven effective. It is also true he isn't one of the few goalies that can significantly outperform the team in front of him.
He wouldn't be *given* that opportunity here. He would have to take it. I don't think he's a guy that can. And if he can't, he's just an expensive backup.

You mention the 21-22 season? That year his GSAX was -6.9, good for 95th in the NHL. He wasn't good at all. Detroit just didn't have a better option.
 
It is unfortunate the Oilers have a new GM this season. Any smart GM would recognize how bad Skinner actually has been considering he plays on one of the best teams in the league and a team overall that plays pretty good defense. To risk another season depending on such an unreliable starter who in my opinion has put up lousy numbers considering the team he plays for, will be really disappointing as a fan of the team. I think most average goalies in the league including backup level goalies could post a .900 save percentage and 2.70 goals against average on this team.
 
It is unfortunate the Oilers have a new GM this season. Any smart GM would recognize how bad Skinner actually has been considering he plays on one of the best teams in the league and a team overall that plays pretty good defense. To risk another season depending on such an unreliable starter who in my opinion has put up lousy numbers considering the team he plays for, will be really disappointing as a fan of the team. I think most average goalies in the league including backup level goalies could post a .900 save percentage and 2.70 goals against average on this team.
Being a new GM shouldn't be an excuse. Skinner has been around long enough that those in the know, should know.
 
You're not even listening anymore.

The fact that we don't have a massive window anymore is why I am so firmly against Ned as the option. We don't need a slightly better backup goalie. We need a legitimate 1A/1B option that could potentially take the net away from Skinner if he falters. Ned isn't that guy. Aside from a hot streak that isn't even ten games long, he hasn't been good since he left Carolina.

Hell if we're getting down to INDIVIDUAL STARTS against playoff teams, Pickard had a .967 against MIN, a .923 against VAN, and another .912 against MIN. Any goalie can have a good game one-off here and there. We need consistency. Ned is not consistent. In that manner, he's too much like Skinner.

A team leaning on Nedeljkovic to win them a Cup is quite simply not winning a cup. He's not good enough, he doesn't have enough of a track record as the guy that can come in and stabilize the goaltending. There are multiple options better than he is. His numbers over the last two years are BARELY better than Pickard's from a GSAX perspective, which, by the way, take the quality of the team in front of him into account.

I'm not listening? You're completely ignoring all of my rebuttals and repeating yourself, so I may as well repeat myself: if we went off last year's stats then Gibson and Vejmelka would be atrocious options.

Also, thanks to you, I finally looked at last year's GSAx data out of sheer curiosity and saw that Ned actually finished 37th in GSAx per 60 and Stu finished 52nd. Stu played more games, but an interesting result nevertheless... Maybe Ned is even better than I thought.

"There are multiple options better than he is."

Like who? Seriously? Please tell me! Because I'm looking, dude. Again, Ned is not my first pick but he's better than Talbot or doing nothing. What are these better options out there besides Gibson (Vejmelka isn't going anywhere now that Utah has a chance at the WC)? It certainly isn't what we currently have, and that's my point.

There aren't many clear upgrades because teams with good goalies don't want to give them up if they still have a hope in making the playoffs and there seems to be more parity than usual this season. These teams have to be open to doing business for their goalies to be options for us.

As for those Minnesota games, context matters...they were dealing with major injuries.

In the .967 performance: Minnesota is missing top-six forwards Joel Eriksson Ek and Mats Zuccarello and another top-four defenseman, Jonas Brodin, to injuries.

In the .912 performance: Wild: With four key players out in leading-scorer Kirill Kaprizov and defensemen Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber, Minnesota has a hard time keeping pace with teams. The Wild have lost three of the four games Brodin and Faber have missed. Kaprizov missed his 10th straight game but has started skating.


Edmonton probably considered Minnesota a weak team without those players and that's why Pickard even got the starts in the first place. And pretty sure that Vancouver game was right after Demko came back from injury and had been absolutely atrocious, even worse than Skinner had been, which again, is probably why Pickard got the start in that game too.
 
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You mention the 21-22 season? That year his GSAX was -6.9, good for 95th in the NHL. He wasn't good at all. Detroit just didn't have a better option.
Greiss was the backup 21-22. His previous 3 seasons: .927/.913/.912. GSAA. 19.8/2.8/3.4. He was definitely a decent option. Except that in front of the same Detroit D Greiss was .891 and -13.7

That definitely looks like a team issue.
 
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Being a new GM shouldn't be an excuse. Skinner has been around long enough that those in the know, should know.
Well hopefully not, but if you look at his stats but haven't watched him on a game to game basis over the past few seasons and the fact he made it to game 7 last year, someone could get the impression that he has performed better then he actually has overall. I am hoping at the very least they add maybe a cheap veteran goalie with some experience as some type of insurance as cap wise it might not be possible for them to make a substantial move.
 

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