Adjusting playoff scoring for defense faced

[overpass]

Also does anyone want to discuss the elephant in the room of McDavid topping Gretzky here?

I’ll start by adding that beginning in the 2022 playoffs McDavid has basically looked like the most dominant offensive hockey player I’ve ever seen, and his dominance over Kucherov and MacKinnon (Lafleur, Jagr levels according to these adjustments) these past 3 playoffs has been nothing short of extraordinary. This is also before getting into Gretzky playing on a dynasty with a notable ice time advantage.!!

McDavid's 2022 is an all-timer for sure when you consider the defences he faced.

But you have to consider he may have had the best #2 linemate of all time in Draisaitl. What could Crosby and Malkin have done if they played most of a playoff on the same line? Or Sakic and Forsberg?

 

[authentic]

McDavid's 2022 is an all-timer for sure when you consider the defences he faced.

But you have to consider he may have had the best #2 linemate of all time in Draisaitl. What could Crosby and Malkin have done if they played most of a playoff on the same line? Or Sakic and Forsberg?

Yeah I’ve pondered the same thing for sure, I just don’t know if they’re putting up quite the same offense McDavid does.. but it would definitely be closer.

That said, Gretzky played on a dynasty, in the run and gun 80s, with a lot more ice time, and McDavid plays with Draisaitl and they carry the weight of the team on their shoulders. I’m not sure any modern player does as well in their spot if Gretzky didn’t even do better on an adjusted basis.

 

[Namba 17]

As talked about in a thread, it would be maybe interesting to adjust playoff scoring over player career around a weighted defensive score of the opponent they face, 6 games against a 3 goals against, 4 games against a 4 goals a game, faced a average 3.4 goals a games defensive team that year.

Could you clarify, please, what "defensive score of the opponent" is and how you calculate adjusted?

 

[authentic]

McDavid's 2022 is an all-timer for sure when you consider the defences he faced.

But you have to consider he may have had the best #2 linemate of all time in Draisaitl. What could Crosby and Malkin have done if they played most of a playoff on the same line? Or Sakic and Forsberg?

Actually where does this rank here? I don’t believe it’s posted yet unless I missed it.

 

[MadLuke]

Could you clarify, please, what "defensive score of the opponent" is and how you calculate adjusted?

The defensive score of the opponents is based on the regular season goals against average of that year.

To give an example of 1981 Gretzky (the first result on the first page) that say that the average defense faced was 3.13 goals against.

In 1981 Gretzky played 3 games against MTL in the first round and 6 games against the Islanders in the second round.

MTL allowed 2.90 goal per game that seasons, islanders 3.25,

(3*2.90 + 6 *3.25) / 9 = 3.13 goals.

Has for calculating adjusted, I use the average defense Gretzky faced when he set the 47 pts records (3.68 goals against) and simply did a ratio with it, so if you faced 3 gpg defense your total * 3.68/ 3.0

 

[MadLuke]

Actually where does this rank here? I don’t believe it’s posted yet unless I missed it.

Most adj pts in an individual playoff run:

full_name	season	games	average defense	Goals	Points	adj_goals	adj_points	a_gpg	a_ppg
Connor McDavid	20232024	25	2.62	8	42	11	59	0.45	2.36
Mario Lemieux	19901991	23	3.29	16	44	18	49	0.78	2.14
Nikita Kucherov	20192020	25	2.60	7	34	10	48	0.40	1.92
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	18	3.68	17	47	17	47	0.94	2.61
Brayden Point	20192020	23	2.59	14	33	20	47	0.87	2.04
Nikita Kucherov	20202021	23	2.54	8	32	12	46	0.50	2.02
Evgeni Malkin	20082009	24	2.86	14	36	18	46	0.75	1.93
Wayne Gretzky	19921993	24	3.20	15	40	17	46	0.72	1.92
Daniel Brière	20092010	23	2.43	12	30	18	46	0.79	1.98
Joe Sakic	19951996	22	2.78	18	34	24	45	1.09	2.05
Logan Couture	20152016	24	2.45	10	30	15	45	0.63	1.88
Evan Bouchard	20232024	25	2.62	6	32	8	45	0.34	1.80
Wayne Gretzky	19871988	19	3.53	12	43	13	45	0.66	2.36
Connor McDavid	20212022	16	2.73	10	33	13	45	0.84	2.78
Leon Draisaitl	20232024	25	2.62	10	31	14	44	0.56	1.74
Leon Draisaitl	20212022	16	2.73	7	32	9	43	0.59	2.70
Peter Forsberg	20012002	20	2.34	9	27	14	42	0.71	2.12
Evgeni Malkin	20162017	25	2.44	10	28	15	42	0.60	1.69
Phil Esposito	19691970	14	2.38	13	27	20	42	1.44	2.99

2022 McDavid 2.78 adjPts a game is the highest for anyone with 15 games or more in a run (Drai 2.70 the second)

Howe 1955, scoring almost 2 ppg against the 1955 TOR and MTL is the all time highest adj PPG. 1956 Beliveau the highest for goals.

1996 Sakic the most goals,

 

[authentic]

Most adj pts in an individual playoff run:

full_name	season	games	average defense	Goals	Points	adj_goals	adj_points	a_gpg	a_ppg
Connor McDavid	20232024	25	2.62	8	42	11	59	0.45	2.36
Mario Lemieux	19901991	23	3.29	16	44	18	49	0.78	2.14
Nikita Kucherov	20192020	25	2.60	7	34	10	48	0.40	1.92
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	18	3.68	17	47	17	47	0.94	2.61
Brayden Point	20192020	23	2.59	14	33	20	47	0.87	2.04
Nikita Kucherov	20202021	23	2.54	8	32	12	46	0.50	2.02
Evgeni Malkin	20082009	24	2.86	14	36	18	46	0.75	1.93
Wayne Gretzky	19921993	24	3.20	15	40	17	46	0.72	1.92
Daniel Brière	20092010	23	2.43	12	30	18	46	0.79	1.98
Joe Sakic	19951996	22	2.78	18	34	24	45	1.09	2.05
Logan Couture	20152016	24	2.45	10	30	15	45	0.63	1.88
Evan Bouchard	20232024	25	2.62	6	32	8	45	0.34	1.80
Wayne Gretzky	19871988	19	3.53	12	43	13	45	0.66	2.36
Connor McDavid	20212022	16	2.73	10	33	13	45	0.84	2.78
Leon Draisaitl	20232024	25	2.62	10	31	14	44	0.56	1.74
Leon Draisaitl	20212022	16	2.73	7	32	9	43	0.59	2.70
Peter Forsberg	20012002	20	2.34	9	27	14	42	0.71	2.12
Evgeni Malkin	20162017	25	2.44	10	28	15	42	0.60	1.69
Phil Esposito	19691970	14	2.38	13	27	20	42	1.44	2.99

2022 McDavid 2.78 adjPts a game is the highest for anyone with 15 games or more in a run (Drai 2.70 the second)

Howe 1955, scoring almost 2 ppg against the 1955 TOR and MTL is the all time highest adj PPG. 1956 Beliveau the highest for goals.

1996 Sakic the most goals,

Ohh and Esposito with that 2.99 run, are any of Gretzky’s that high? So Gordie Howe had an over 3 points per game adjusted run? That’s amazing.

 

[seventieslord]

Also does anyone want to discuss the elephant in the room of McDavid topping Gretzky here?

I’ll start by adding that beginning in the 2022 playoffs McDavid has basically looked like the most dominant offensive hockey player I’ve ever seen, and his dominance over Kucherov and MacKinnon (Lafleur, Jagr levels according to these adjustments) these past 3 playoffs has been nothing short of extraordinary. This is also before getting into Gretzky playing on a dynasty with a notable ice time advantage.!!

I don't think it's an elephant in the room, it's a symptom of a small sample. What would Gretzky look like at age 28? What would McDavid look like after 208 games?

 

[Namba 17]

Has for calculating adjusted, I use the average defense Gretzky faced when he set the 47 pts records (3.68 goals against) and simply did a ratio with it, so if you faced 3 gpg defense your total * 3.68/ 3.0

Did you use Gretz PO record for each player? Or for each player you calculated adjusted usinf their highest?

 

[MadLuke]

Did you use Gretz PO record for each player? Or for each player you calculated adjusted usinf their highest?

I use the average defense Gretzky faced for each player as the reference point. I could have picked any value, using the record setting year is just a really well known one for a mental image

 

[authentic]

I don't think it's an elephant in the room, it's a symptom of a small sample. What would Gretzky look like at age 28? What would McDavid look like after 208 games?

As far as I see here McDavid also has the higher peaks, but yeah that was mostly just a joke on my part, perhaps not a very funny one anyway

 

[MadLuke]

If we keep it only for those that played 4th round of playoff (not sure how fair it is to compare 06 2 rounds, or partial run to them, we often see crazy 2 first round that slow down before the end). 5-6 rnd values are from that covid extra rounds era if they appear, the code count the number of distinct opponent you faced.... those could be ignored if judged invalid, I did try to keep only the actual finalist like Point-Kucherov in there...

full_name	season	rds	games	points	adj_points	ppg	goals	adj_goals	gpg
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	4	18	47	47	2.61	17	17	0.94
Mario Lemieux	19911992	4	15	34	38	2.56	16	18	1.21
Wayne Gretzky	19821983	4	16	38	39	2.46	12	12	0.78
Wayne Gretzky	19871988	4	19	43	45	2.36	12	13	0.66
Connor McDavid	20232024	4	25	42	59	2.36	8	11	0.45
Mario Lemieux	19901991	4	23	44	49	2.14	16	18	0.78
Paul Coffey	19841985	4	18	37	37	2.06	12	12	0.67
Joe Sakic	19951996	4	22	34	45	2.05	18	24	1.09
Brayden Point	20192020	6	23	33	47	2.04	14	20	0.87
Nikita Kucherov	20202021	4	23	32	46	2.02	8	12	0.5
Daniel Brière	20092010	4	23	30	46	1.98	12	18	0.79
Sidney Crosby	20072008	4	20	27	40	1.98	6	9	0.44
Evgeni Malkin	20082009	4	24	36	46	1.93	14	18	0.75
Wayne Gretzky	19921993	4	24	40	46	1.92	15	17	0.72
Nikita Kucherov	20192020	6	25	34	48	1.92	7	10	0.4
Marian Hossa	20072008	4	20	26	38	1.9	12	18	0.88
Sergei Fedorov	19941995	4	17	24	32	1.88	7	9	0.55
Logan Couture	20152016	4	24	30	45	1.88	10	15	0.63
Mark Messier	19871988	4	19	34	35	1.87	11	11	0.6
David Krejci	20122013	4	22	26	41	1.84	9	14	0.64
Mike Bossy	19801981	4	18	35	33	1.83	17	16	0.89
Jonathan Toews	20092010	4	22	29	40	1.82	7	10	0.44
Cale Makar	20212022	4	20	29	36	1.82	8	10	0.5
Brian Leetch	19931994	4	23	34	41	1.8	11	13	0.58
Brad Richards	20032004	4	23	26	42	1.8	12	19	0.83
Evan Bouchard	20232024	4	25	32	45	1.8	6	8	0.34
Eric Lindros	19961997	4	19	26	34	1.79	12	16	0.83
Matthew Tkachuk	20222023	4	20	24	36	1.79	11	16	0.82
Mike Bossy	19791980	4	16	23	28	1.77	10	12	0.77
Joe Sakic	20002001	4	21	26	37	1.77	13	19	0.89
Patrick Kane	20092010	4	22	28	39	1.76	10	14	0.63
Leon Draisaitl	20232024	4	25	31	44	1.74	10	14	0.56
Henrik Zetterberg	20072008	4	22	27	38	1.73	13	18	0.83
Jari Kurri	19841985	4	18	31	31	1.72	19	19	1.06
Evgeny Kuznetsov	20172018	4	24	32	41	1.72	12	16	0.65
Wayne Gretzky	19831984	4	19	35	32	1.71	13	12	0.63
Wayne Gretzky	19861987	4	21	34	36	1.71	5	5	0.25
Jari Kurri	19871988	4	19	31	32	1.7	14	15	0.77
Evgeni Malkin	20162017	4	25	28	42	1.69	10	15	0.6
Sidney Crosby	20162017	4	24	27	41	1.69	8	12	0.5
Martin St. Louis	20032004	4	23	24	38	1.67	9	14	0.62
Bryan Trottier	19791980	4	21	29	35	1.66	12	14	0.69
Sidney Crosby	20082009	4	24	31	40	1.66	15	19	0.8
Ville Leino	20092010	4	19	21	31	1.66	7	10	0.55
Steve Yzerman	19971998	4	22	24	36	1.65	6	9	0.41
Pavel Bure	19931994	4	24	31	39	1.61	16	20	0.83
Evgeni Malkin	20072008	4	20	22	32	1.61	10	15	0.73

That look more like a list of the best playoff run we tend to talk about, I could compare first 2, first 3 rounds independently eventually..

 

[authentic]

If we keep it only for those that played 4th round of playoff (not sure how fair it is to compare 06 2 rounds, or partial run to them, we often see crazy 2 first round that slow down before the end). 5-6 rnd values are from that covid extra rounds era if they appear, the code count the number of distinct opponent you faced.... those could be ignored if judged invalid, I did try to keep only the actual finalist like Point-Kucherov in there...

full_name	season	rds	games	points	adj_points	ppg	goals	adj_goals	gpg
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	4	18	47	47	2.61	17	17	0.94
Mario Lemieux	19911992	4	15	34	38	2.56	16	18	1.21
Wayne Gretzky	19821983	4	16	38	39	2.46	12	12	0.78
Wayne Gretzky	19871988	4	19	43	45	2.36	12	13	0.66
Connor McDavid	20232024	4	25	42	59	2.36	8	11	0.45
Mario Lemieux	19901991	4	23	44	49	2.14	16	18	0.78
Paul Coffey	19841985	4	18	37	37	2.06	12	12	0.67
Joe Sakic	19951996	4	22	34	45	2.05	18	24	1.09
Brayden Point	20192020	6	23	33	47	2.04	14	20	0.87
Nikita Kucherov	20202021	4	23	32	46	2.02	8	12	0.5
Daniel Brière	20092010	4	23	30	46	1.98	12	18	0.79
Sidney Crosby	20072008	4	20	27	40	1.98	6	9	0.44
Evgeni Malkin	20082009	4	24	36	46	1.93	14	18	0.75
Wayne Gretzky	19921993	4	24	40	46	1.92	15	17	0.72
Nikita Kucherov	20192020	6	25	34	48	1.92	7	10	0.4
Marian Hossa	20072008	4	20	26	38	1.9	12	18	0.88
Sergei Fedorov	19941995	4	17	24	32	1.88	7	9	0.55
Logan Couture	20152016	4	24	30	45	1.88	10	15	0.63
Mark Messier	19871988	4	19	34	35	1.87	11	11	0.6
David Krejci	20122013	4	22	26	41	1.84	9	14	0.64
Mike Bossy	19801981	4	18	35	33	1.83	17	16	0.89
Jonathan Toews	20092010	4	22	29	40	1.82	7	10	0.44
Cale Makar	20212022	4	20	29	36	1.82	8	10	0.5
Brian Leetch	19931994	4	23	34	41	1.8	11	13	0.58
Brad Richards	20032004	4	23	26	42	1.8	12	19	0.83
Evan Bouchard	20232024	4	25	32	45	1.8	6	8	0.34
Eric Lindros	19961997	4	19	26	34	1.79	12	16	0.83
Matthew Tkachuk	20222023	4	20	24	36	1.79	11	16	0.82
Mike Bossy	19791980	4	16	23	28	1.77	10	12	0.77
Joe Sakic	20002001	4	21	26	37	1.77	13	19	0.89
Patrick Kane	20092010	4	22	28	39	1.76	10	14	0.63
Leon Draisaitl	20232024	4	25	31	44	1.74	10	14	0.56
Henrik Zetterberg	20072008	4	22	27	38	1.73	13	18	0.83
Jari Kurri	19841985	4	18	31	31	1.72	19	19	1.06
Evgeny Kuznetsov	20172018	4	24	32	41	1.72	12	16	0.65
Wayne Gretzky	19831984	4	19	35	32	1.71	13	12	0.63
Wayne Gretzky	19861987	4	21	34	36	1.71	5	5	0.25
Jari Kurri	19871988	4	19	31	32	1.7	14	15	0.77
Evgeni Malkin	20162017	4	25	28	42	1.69	10	15	0.6
Sidney Crosby	20162017	4	24	27	41	1.69	8	12	0.5
Martin St. Louis	20032004	4	23	24	38	1.67	9	14	0.62
Bryan Trottier	19791980	4	21	29	35	1.66	12	14	0.69
Sidney Crosby	20082009	4	24	31	40	1.66	15	19	0.8
Ville Leino	20092010	4	19	21	31	1.66	7	10	0.55
Steve Yzerman	19971998	4	22	24	36	1.65	6	9	0.41
Pavel Bure	19931994	4	24	31	39	1.61	16	20	0.83
Evgeni Malkin	20072008	4	20	22	32	1.61	10	15	0.73

That look more like a list of the best playoff run we tend to talk about, I could compare first 2, first 3 rounds independently eventually..

That 1.21 GPG only .05 PPG behind Gretzky here looks most impressive to me, but 15 games played Lemieux must’ve missed some games but in which round now I’m wondering?

 

[MadLuke]

which round now I’m wondering?

1 in round 1, 4 against the rangers in round 2 and 1 against Boston in round 3.

 

[MadLuke]

As far as I see here McDavid also has the higher peaks, but yeah that was mostly just a joke on my part, perhaps not a very funny one anyway

I am not sure how the best way to evaluate it like that, one possible way to look at it to give a change to the 06 players but also not reward them too much for their short playoff and taking the best one during a long career could be to look at the best stretch of consecutive playoff games played.

If we look at the best consecutive 70 playoffs games played (McDavid as 74 career one so for him that basically his career versus others best stretch), Mc-Drai and the MacKinnon-Rantaen pair look good:

full_name	start_date	end_date	avgDef	games	goals	points	adj_goals	adj_points
Wayne Gretzky	4/8/1981	4/12/1986	3.75	70	57	159	56.5	158.3
Connor McDavid	4/16/2017	6/18/2024	2.7	70	36	115	48.6	156.6
Mario Lemieux	4/23/1989	5/11/1996	3.23	70	60	132	68.3	151
Leon Draisaitl	4/18/2017	6/21/2024	2.7	70	41	108	55.2	148.7
Gordie Howe	3/22/1955	4/21/1964	2.42	70	35	95	54.6	147.5
Phil Esposito	4/6/1968	4/11/1975	2.56	70	46	101	66.3	145.8
Peter Forsberg	5/11/1999	4/17/2004	2.39	70	31	87	47.6	134.6
Jaromir Jagr	5/10/1995	5/10/2001	2.55	70	42	92	61	134.1
Nikita Kucherov	8/8/2020	4/18/2023	2.66	70	23	94	31.5	132
Sidney Crosby	4/9/2008	5/17/2013	2.71	70	36	97	48.9	131.9
Guy Lafleur	4/13/1975	4/8/1980	3.04	70	49	108	58.9	130.4
Bobby Orr	4/2/1969	4/11/1975	2.57	70	26	90	38.1	129.7
Nathan MacKinnon	4/11/2019	5/7/2024	2.78	70	42	95	55.2	128.5
Joe Sakic	4/26/1993	5/30/1999	2.64	70	38	90	52.6	126.9
Ryan Getzlaf	4/16/2009	5/5/2017	2.47	70	25	85	36.6	126.6
Mikko Rantanen	4/11/2019	5/7/2024	2.78	70	32	94	43.5	126.5
Bernie Geoffrion	4/16/1953	4/7/1960	2.58	70	43	89	62.6	126
Evgeni Malkin	4/9/2008	5/14/2013	2.72	70	35	90	47.9	121.4
Jean Beliveau	3/23/1954	3/27/1962	2.56	70	37	84	52.9	120.5
Bobby Hull	4/19/1962	5/2/1971	2.65	70	42	85	58.1	119.2
Ted Lindsay	4/18/1950	3/26/1960	2.28	70	35	72	56.4	118.5
Johnny Bucyk	4/6/1968	4/8/1975	2.55	70	36	81	52.1	116.8
Henrik Zetterberg	4/24/2008	5/12/2013	2.59	70	37	81	53.2	115.9
Mike Bossy	4/21/1980	5/17/1983	3.58	70	60	109	63.4	114.4
Martin St. Louis		4/27/2014	2.38	68	35	74	53.7	113.9
Brad Richards	4/12/2004	5/25/2012	2.42	70	27	72	41.5	111.2
Patrick Kane	5/31/2010	5/7/2015	2.35	70	28	70	43.8	110.1
Brad Marchand	4/28/2018	4/24/2024	2.8	70	35	82	47	109.3
Daniel Brière	5/6/2007	4/29/2012	2.59	70	37	76	52.7	109.2
Alex Delvecchio	4/1/1954	4/2/1964	2.37	70	29	69	45.7	109
Brett Hull	4/10/1990	4/23/1998	3.07	70	50	89	59	108.9
Stan Mikita	4/12/1961	4/19/1970	2.66	70	29	77	40.6	108.6
Mark Messier	4/8/1987	4/4/1991	3.6	70	33	107	33	107.3
Bryan Trottier	4/17/1980	5/17/1983	3.57	70	34	102	35.4	107.1
Yvan Cournoyer	4/18/1968	4/14/1974	2.74	70	42	80	55.4	106.9

Look of the expected suspect, Orr-Espo, the Lemieux-Gretzky-Howe (not sure I expected Howe to be that high but why be surprised).

Marchand 2018-2024 run, maybe a bit of a surprise to see that high.

Looking at Lemieux, espo, Richard, Bossy goals, does not help much ranking them versus one and others quite close...

best adjusted goals scoring 70 consecutives playoff games,

full_name	start_date	end_date	avgDef	games	goals	points	adj_goals
Mario Lemieux	4/23/1989	5/11/1996	3.23	70	60	132	68.3
Phil Esposito	4/6/1968	4/11/1975	2.56	70	46	101	66.3
Jaromir Jagr	5/4/1993	5/2/2000	2.72	70	47	94	66.3
Maurice Richard	4/5/1951	4/17/1958	2.45	70	44	66	65.7
Bernie Geoffrion	3/24/1953	4/2/1959	2.53	70	44	82	64.8
Mike Bossy	5/8/1979	5/7/1983	3.58	70	60	108	63.5
Bobby Hull	3/29/1962	4/8/1971	2.66	70	45	82	62.8
Joe Sakic	4/12/2001	4/9/2008	2.42	70	40	77	61.9
Brett Hull	4/10/1990	4/23/1998	3.07	70	50	89	59
Guy Lafleur	4/13/1975	4/8/1980	3.04	70	49	108	58.9
Gordie Howe	4/11/1948	3/31/1957	2.26	70	34	78	57.2
Wayne Gretzky	4/11/1980	4/10/1986	3.74	70	57	157	56.8
Nathan MacKinnon	4/14/2018	4/21/2024	2.78	70	43	91	56.8
Ted Lindsay	4/15/1950	3/24/1960	2.29	70	35	71	56.4
Jean Beliveau	4/9/1955	4/6/1965	2.63	70	39	77	56.2
Yvan Cournoyer	4/11/1968	4/13/1974	2.74	70	42	79	55.4
Leon Draisaitl		5/29/2024	2.71	65	41	103	55.2
Brayden Point	5/2/2018	4/18/2023	2.67	70	38	72	54.6
Jake Guentzel		5/9/2024	2.61	66	38	66	54.4
Henrik Zetterberg	4/23/2006	4/16/2010	2.65	70	39	74	54.3
Alex Ovechkin	4/21/2008	4/18/2016	2.52	70	38	69	54.3
Daniel Brière	5/12/2007	5/3/2012	2.59	70	38	75	54.2
Martin St. Louis		4/22/2014	2.37	66	35	73	53.7
Johnny Bucyk	4/2/1959	5/12/1974	2.57	70	37	79	53.5
Jari Kurri	4/22/1984	5/5/1988	3.7	70	54	106	52.6
Johan Franzen	4/16/2008	5/18/2013	2.59	70	37	65	52.2
Cam Neely	4/26/1988	5/10/1995	3.37	70	46	73	50.8
Sidney Crosby	4/14/2008	5/22/2013	2.68	70	37	95	50.7
Peter Forsberg	5/25/1996	4/30/2001	2.52	70	35	86	50.1
Steve Shutt	5/6/1976	5/1/1984	3.18	70	42	76	49.8