Adam Larsson..

[devilsblood]

At 21 Larsson was sent down in favor of Merrill

At just about 22 he was scratched from the start of the season in favor of Severson and even upon his return to the lineup he didn't look good until the Severson injury allowed him to paired with Greene.

That is how the first 4 years of his career went, now we are supposed to sing his praises for doing essentially what a 5th round pick, straight out of college did in Mark Fayne? Please.

If you are pleased with a good top 4 dman who essentially performing the exact same role as Fayne from a #4 overall, so be it. I'm not.

Fayne coming in and playing well as a rookie makes the fact that he was a 5th rnd pick irrelevant to this discussion.

It would be relevant to a discussion regarding whether Fayne was a good pick. Yeah given most 5th rounders never make it to the NHL, the fact that he played well as a rookie, makes that pick look really good.

But it's irrelevant to this one. Bottom line is Fayne played well as a rookie.

Never mind that Fayne didn't come to the league until 5 years after his draft year. Was 23.

 

[Zippy316]

I don't disagree with much of anything here but I do take exception with the "bias for Larsson" comment. There is no bias, I'm just saying what I see.

It's almost as if some want to revise history. This is a player on his 3rd contract and we've gotten 1 year of reliable play...Is that an over exaggeration? Is that not true? Is it overly critical?

Do you find any of this acceptable for a former #4 overall? Or do you think the draft position shouldn't even factor into the conversation?

What has Larsson's provided over about his last 70 or so games that a Greene/Fayne pairing didn't provide? What are we celebrating here?

If it's not bias, then your expectations were unreasonable. You can't expect a young defender to come in and dominate. It doesn't happen often. Yes, he has struggled; that is undeniable. However, at the same time, you really can't say he looked out of place. He suffered from a bit of bad luck and a numbers situation for a while here.

Most players don't really start to make an impact in this league until the age he's at now. If you look at him with respect to his draft year, the other options out there just show his progression isn't really far off from them. Strome looked good last year but he's been sent down to the AHL this year. Zibanejad has recently settled in nicely as a 40-50 point second line center, Schiefele as well. Couturier has seemed to stagnate as a 40 point checking center. Hamilton has struggled since he was removed from Chara, pulled the ultimate diva move to be shipped out to Calgary, and is making 1.5 million more than Larsson right now. Brodin hasn't really done much more then Larsson and has had a better partner in Suter then Larsson ever had.

We desperately needed a defender there. Larsson was, and still is, the best guy at that pick. He's trending upwards just when he should be. A lot of people liken his development to Hedman because just like Hedman he had a few decent years until his play took off. Then again, look who Hedman has to play with.

When comparing him to other players drafted near him and other young defenders, Larsson is not a disappointment and has been developing just as expected. He went through some struggles like all young defenders, but he's started to progress upwards. You can't pinpoint cases like Merrill and Severson have a nice little surge resulting in Larsson being benched or demoted for them. Larsson had that surge early on as well, but then he hit a wall just like Merrill and Severson have. He's trending up now and has been separated from Greene and hasn't lost a beat so far, let's look at that as a positive instead of dwelling on how long it took him to develop.

 

[JimEIV]

See, it's comments like this one that are funny. You keep railing on the same point ignoring anything that goes against your argument, then glossing over the same issue with your favorites.

But it's the truth, regardless of whether you like it or not.

You want revise what happened and make believe Larsson was a stud in the making when the truth is everyone was better than he was over their first 100+ games.

 

[GDDevils*]

I was NEVER wrong about Larsson from his sophomore season when things looked the bleakest I always said he would be a good top 4 defender but his skating would keep him from being a #1...I was spot on from day one with Larsson.


What have I been wrong about Merrill? I've always compared him to a Greene, Martin-lite type of defender with solid top 4 potential. He tracking exactly to that in my opinion.

Yeah, no. You've been on the Larsson bust train for years. Wrong #1. You were also spouting the Merrill will be better than Larsson drivel for years. Wrong #2. And you want to talk about revisionist history. This post I've quoted is literally the exact opposite of what you've been saying for the last 2-3 years.

 

[devilsblood]

Means his development has hit a wall and it is time to slow down and reevaluate. It happens to many Dmen in there first couple of seasons.

It's a bit disconcerting when a rookie is a more viable option than a 4 year former #4 overall however.

And since that time? Live in the now man!!!

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah, no. You've been on the Larsson bust train for years. Wrong #1. You were also spouti g the Merrill will be better than Larsson drivel for years. Wrong #2. And you want to talk about revisionist history. This post I've quoted is literally the exact opposite of what you've been saying for the last 2-3 years.

That's just not true...I never once ever said Larsson was or would be a bust. NEVER...always said would would be a top 4 defender. And always said he is a major disappointment for a #4 overall. From the lockout shortened 2013 year I have been saying this...you are simply wrong here. I had multiple conversations on the trade board and here about not wanting to trade Larsson for anything, when people were talking about Yakapov and Sven Beartsi... that would be weird if I thought he was a bust dontcha think? You are really 100% off base here.

I'm not sure where you are going with Merrill though?

No doubt I like him. I like his toolset and I think he projects to be a solid top 4 defender. He showed a ton of poise early his career and I think he'll be a fantastic player in the future....I don't believe I have ever made any difinative predictions beyond that so I'm not sure where you are going.

 

[GDDevils*]

That's just not true...I never once ever said Larsson was or would be a bust. NEVER...always said would would be a top 4 defender. And always said he is a major disappointment for a #4 overall. From the lockout shortened 2013 year I have been saying this...you are simply wrong here. I had multiple conversations on the trade board and here about not wanting to trade Larsson for anything, when people were talking about Yakapov and Sven Beartsi... that would be weird if I thought he was a bust dontcha think?

I'm not sure where you are going with Merrill though?

No doubt I like him. I like his toolset and I think he projects to be s top solid defender. He showed a tin of poise early his career and I think he'll be a fantastic player in the future....I don't believe I have ever made any difinative predictions beyond that so I'm not sure where you are going.

Sure thing. Whatever you say.

Obviously you aren't going to admit you were wrong. I will say that if you are disappointed in Larsson then your expectations must have been sky high. He has quite simply been our best defender this year.

 

[JimEIV]

Sure thing. Whatever you say.

Obviously you aren't going to admit you were wrong. I will say that if you are disappointed in Larsson then your expectations must have been sky high. He has quite simply been our best defender this year.

How can I admit yo being wrong when I never said what you are accusing me of? I had long conversations with Swedish fans on the main board Systemful and a guy with a Jim Morrison avatar about Larsson being a top 4 defender. And that he wasn't being jerked around by management... His positioning and skating needed a lot of work. Nobody believed it then.

I railed hard against his skating before anyone was really willing to even talk about it... couple of user here told me "I have no idea what I was talking about" and threw out all the scouting reports that said he was a good skater. Then in year 3 it was pretty much out in the open.

His skating is not good. And it will prevent him from being an elite defenseman. A defenseman that needs to always have the play in front of him because he doesn't have the makeup speed will never be elite. That has always been my opinion of Larsson and still is... getting that from a #4 overall sucks in my opinion.

 

[Blender]

You're splitting hairs here. You've called him a bust in some posts, but in others claimed you never called him a bust and that the term must mean something different to them than to you.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=82796061&postcount=416

And here is another thing... In terms of a 4th overall pick Larsson is already a bust.

One of the primary benefits of a top 5 picks should be getting quality NHL caliber play on the cheap out of at least 1 year of that players 3 year Entry Level Contract.

If you’re not getting quality play on the cheap what is the point? He could be a second, third or 4th rounder if it is going to take a 2nd contract (which means 4 years) to become a mainstay. The last 3 years have been a waste. We should’ve gotten at least Mark Fayne level play out of Larsson’s ELC and we didn’t even get that.

A number 4 overall that can’t firmly entrench themselves in the lineup by year 3 is an extreme disappointment. I really hope he turns it around. But from the trajectory so far no one can be pleased.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=82796913&postcount=420

It's very easy to call a #4 overall that has just blown through his ELC and is still not an NHL regular a bust pick.

You could've gotten 3 years of $900k salary and better quality play from the 2nd round. Merrill still has 2 years remaining on his ELC....that is the point.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=91030087&postcount=119

I have never claimed Larsson was a bust...actually I have repeatedly said the opposite. I fully believe Larsson is a top 4 defenseman.

The comparison was more of a joke to highlight how irrational the board became with Larsson out and Severson in. We had to hear that DeBoer hates Larsson for days and that his development and confidence was ruined by the organization..not once considering that Severson was just plain ol' better in every aspect.

As far as Larsson goes the term 'bust', I think means different things to different people.

I think some people would consider getting a Mark Fayne with a bit more offensive potential at #4 overall a 'bust' for others 'bust' means no NHL career...that is always the word game that is played on message boards.

All of that said, make no mistake, Larsson is not in the class of Severson in any imaginable way.

 

[JimEIV]

You're splitting hairs here. You've called him a bust in some posts, but in others claimed you never called him a bust and that the term must mean something different to them than to you.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=82796061&postcount=416


http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=82796913&postcount=420


http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=91030087&postcount=119

I never called him a bust though, at least not in term of not having an NHL career...look what I'm saying there... we got nothing out of his ELC in terms of a cheap, serviceable player from Larsson... I remember that conversation. that is the point of that post .

 

[Blender]

Here is the last 20 years worth of 4th overall picks. Stating that a 4th overall pick being a top 4 defenseman is a "major disappointment" is laughable based on draft history. There is a small group of elite talent in there, but that is far from the norm. I still think Larsson is and can be a top pairing defenseman as well, not even just top 4. His defensive skill set and play is fantastic at this moment.

Year	Player			Position	GP	G	A	P	PIM
2014	Sam Bennett		Center		1	0	1	1	0
2013	Seth Jones		Defense		159	14	38	52	44
2012	Griffin Reinhart	Defense		8	0	1	1	6
2011	Adam Larsson		Defense		192	6	45	51	78
2010	Ryan Johansen		Center		271	73	94	167	119
2009	Evander Kane		Left Wing	361	109	113	222	385
2008	Alex Pietrangelo	Defense		386	44	174	218	133
2007	Thomas Hickey		Defense		202	7	41	48	68
2006	Nicklas Backstrom	Center		145	145	427	572	298
2005	Benoit Pouliot		Left Wing	429	95	99	194	285
2004	Andrew Ladd		Left Wing	691	185	235	420	434
2003	Nikolai Zherdev		Right Wing	421	115	146	261	225
2002	Joni Pitkanen		Defense		535	57	225	282	484
2001	Stephen Weiss		Center		732	156	267	423	341
2000	Rostislav Klesla	Defense		659	48	111	159	620
1999	Pavel Brendl		Right Wing	78	11	11	22	16
1998	Bryan Allen		Defense		721	29	107	136	839
1997	Roberto Luongo		Goalie		864	0	17	17	38
1996	Alexandre Volchkov	Right Wing	3	0	0	0	0
1995	Chad Kilger		Center		714	107	111	218	363

http://editorinleaf.com/2015/04/24/nhl-draft-retrospective-4th-overall-history/

 

[JimEIV]

Here is the last 20 years worth of 4th overall picks. Stating that a 4th overall pick being a top 4 defenseman is a "major disappointment" is laughable based on draft history. There is a small group of elite talent in there, but that is far from the norm. I still think Larsson is and can be a top pairing defenseman as well, not even just top 4. His defensive skill set and play is fantastic at this moment.

Year	Player			Position	GP	G	A	P	PIM
2014	Sam Bennett		Center		1	0	1	1	0
2013	Seth Jones		Defense		159	14	38	52	44
2012	Griffin Reinhart	Defense		8	0	1	1	6
2011	Adam Larsson		Defense		192	6	45	51	78
2010	Ryan Johansen		Center		271	73	94	167	119
2009	Evander Kane		Left Wing	361	109	113	222	385
2008	Alex Pietrangelo	Defense		386	44	174	218	133
2007	Thomas Hickey		Defense		202	7	41	48	68
2006	Nicklas Backstrom	Center		145	145	427	572	298
2005	Benoit Pouliot		Left Wing	429	95	99	194	285
2004	Andrew Ladd		Left Wing	691	185	235	420	434
2003	Nikolai Zherdev		Right Wing	421	115	146	261	225
2002	Joni Pitkanen		Defense		535	57	225	282	484
2001	Stephen Weiss		Center		732	156	267	423	341
2000	Rostislav Klesla	Defense		659	48	111	159	620
1999	Pavel Brendl		Right Wing	78	11	11	22	16
1998	Bryan Allen		Defense		721	29	107	136	839
1997	Roberto Luongo		Goalie		864	0	17	17	38
1996	Alexandre Volchkov	Right Wing	3	0	0	0	0
1995	Chad Kilger		Center		714	107	111	218	363

http://editorinleaf.com/2015/04/24/nhl-draft-retrospective-4th-overall-history/

There are only 7 dmen on that list in 21 years, but 5 in the last 10 years. Larsson is clearly better than 2 of the 4 and clearly not as good as 2 of the 4 in the last 10 years.

So how do I interpret that?

Thank god we didn't get Thomas Hickey or Griffen Reinhardt?

Or god dammit why couldn't we have gotten Seth Jones or Alex Pietreanglo?

 

[Blender]

There are only 7 dmen on that list in 21 years, but 5 in the last 10 years. Larsson is clearly better than 2 of the 4 and clearly not as good as 2 of the 4 in the last 10 years.

So how do I interpret that?

Thank god we didn't get Thomas Hickey or Griffen Reinhardt?

Or god dammit why couldn't we have gotten Seth Jones or Alex Pietreanglo?

The only way it needs to be interpreted is that your expectations of the typical talent you get with a top 10 draft pick needs to be tempered. Top 10, or even top 5 does not equal a guaranteed elite player.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Is it hard for that guy to understand that these 3 players are nowhere near each other in their development path?

But it was okay to do it three years ago when you were calling out a teenager for not being as polished as guys older/more experienced than him?

How can you not see the hypocrisy in your statement?

 

[JimEIV]

The only way it needs to be interpreted is that your expectations of the typical talent you get with a top 10 draft pick needs to be tempered. Top 10, or even top 5 does not equal a guaranteed elite player.

Elite? No one ever said that. But look at your list nearly every single person had a significant NHL career with the exception of 2 or 3. Getting an NHL player with a top 5 pick in most years should be a given. I think this list pretty much shows that.
I'd prefer to look at just defensemen, a mediocre forward with 700+ career games like Weiss is a bit difficult for compare to a defenseman.

Half of the defensemen on that list are better players than Larsson, half are not. Really Larrson seems to be smack in the middle of the good vs bad...not nearly as good as Jones, Pietrangelo or Pitkanen but not as bad as Reinhardt, Hickey, or Allen. Not sure how I would compare Larsson to Klesla?

Either way the talent above Larsson in this list is pretty significant. What is below is pretty bad. That pretty much makes me more disappointed.

 

[JimEIV]

But it was okay to do it three years ago when you were calling out a teenager for not being as polished as guys older/more experienced than him?

How can you not see the hypocrisy in your statement?

You mean comparing Merrill to Larsson 3 years ago?

You don't think that is a reasonable comparison? Larsson had been in the league 3 years at the time and he was a former number 4 overall...Merrill had no experience at the time and stepped in seamlessly after a nasty concussion. Those were very reasonable
comparisons...but this "older" thing is very funny. Seriously, I chuckle every time someone says Merrill is older than Larsson.

They share the same birth year and some people make it out like Merrill was some kind of a Sergei Makorov rookie compared to Larsson.

You'd think a #4 overall with 3 years of NHL experience should be head and shoulders ahead of an incoming rookie who happens to be 9 months older....No?

 

[GDDevils*]

Elite? No one ever said that. But look at your list nearly every single person had a significant NHL career with the exception of 2 or 3. Getting an NHL player with a top 5 pick in most years should be a given. I think this list pretty much shows that.
I'd prefer to look at just defensemen, a mediocre forward with 700+ career games like Weiss is a bit difficult for compare to a defenseman.

Half of the defensemen on that list are better players than Larsson, half are not. Really Larrson seems to be smack in the middle of the good vs bad...not nearly as good as Jones, Pietrangelo or Pitkanen but not as bad as Reinhardt, Hickey, or Allen. Not sure how I would compare Larsson to Klesla?

Either way the talent above Larsson in this list is pretty significant. What is below is pretty bad. That pretty much makes me more disappointed.

Looking back at it like you are is the problem. It doesn't matter where he was drafted anymore. It also doesn't matter what other players were drafted in the same position. Every draft is different, some stronger some weaker. You just can't base much of anything off of draft position.

The point is we have a very young defenseman, playing top pairing minutes, performing very well in a shutdown role, who has 200+ games under his belt. I don't think there is a single team in the league that would be disappointed in that.

 

[JimEIV]

Looking back at it like you are is the problem. It doesn't matter where he was drafted anymore. It also doesn't matter what other players were drafted I. The same position. Every draft is different, some stronger some weaker. You just can't base much of anything off of draft position.

The point is we have a very young defenseman, playing top pairing minutes, performing very well in a shutdown role, who has 200+ games under his belt. I don't think there is a single team in the league that would be disappointed in that.

I'm not looking back at it anyway... I'm responding to the list that was put in front of me to show talent level.

 

[AfroThunder396]

You mean comparing Merrill to Larsson 3 years ago?

You don't think that is a reasonable comparison? Larsson had been in the league 3 years at the time and he was a former number 4 overall...Merrill had no experience at the time and stepped in seamlessly after a nasty concussion. Those were very reasonable
comparisons...but this "older" thing is very funny. Seriously, I chuckle every time someone says Merrill is older than Larsson.

They share the same birth year and some people make it out like Merrill was some kind of a Sergei Makorov rookie compared to Larsson.

You'd think a #4 overall with 3 years of NHL experience should be head and shoulders ahead of an incoming rookie who happens to be 9 months older....No?

Every other defenseman this team has produced in the past 15 years has had extra time in lesser leagues to refine and polish their skills. Larsson did not. He was thrown to the wolves as a teenager, then suffered a major back injury, then lost NHL development time due to lockout. And you expected these things to have no impact on his game?

The bottom line is that when Merrill was playing well and Larsson wasn't you were all too happy to bring both facts up. But now that Merrill is struggling and Larsson is excelling, it's nothing but excuses and backtracking. Larsson has been every bit Greene's equal this season, while Merrill is getting yo-yo'd in and out of the lineup, yet you refuse to give credit where credit is due. It's a bad look.

This is my last post in this thread, I'm not going down this rabbit hole again.

 

[NJDevs26]

I wish this thread had never gotten bumped, apparently some can't even play nice on New Year's.