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Player Discussion: Adam Fantilli

ThisIsMyAlibi said:
Not a rocket scientist, huh? To be fair, Oppenheimer couldn’t hit a one timer if his life depended on it.
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Are you sure? I’ve been to Los Alamos and saw this picture.

1744196906893.png


ahf.nuclearmuseum.org

Los Alamos, NM - Nuclear Museum

ahf.nuclearmuseum.org ahf.nuclearmuseum.org
 
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This kid is something special. Will he get to 30 goals at the age of 20? That would be amazing.

Hope he plays for Canada at the World Championships.
 
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Superstar in the making …took a bit to recover from his injury, but when Sean went down , Adam stepped up in a major way as a 20 yr old playing #1 center . As his confidence has grown , you can he he has that alpha dog mentality that refuses to lose . He’s had multiple hat tricks, and multiple games where he was pushing for a hat trick. Going into January, he was at 7 goals for the season , as of Jan 4th he’s been on an absolute heater with 22 goals in 41 games , and 37 points in last 41 games
 
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KJ Dangler said:
Going into January, he was at 7 goals for the season , as of Jan 4th he’s been on an absolute heater with 22 goals in 41 games , and 37 points in last 41 games
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the fun and irresponsible thing here is to look at his last 41 games (where he only has one power play point) and extrapolate that into a full 82-game season, which nets out with:
  • a 44-28–72 line
  • 40 (!!!) even strength goals
  • 66 even strength points
  • a +28 rating
    • trailing only protas, hagel, draisaitl and eichel among forwards
that would put him firmly in the league lead for even strength goals (comfortably ahead of tage thompson's 37), seventh in even strength points (behind only pastrnak, mackinnon, kucherov, draisaitl, hagel and mcdavid) and fifth among forwards in +/-.
 
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Cowumbus said:
10 million are you crazy?
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blind comp time!
  • player A: 117 games, 52 points (15 on power play), 17:24 toi/gp, -29 rating
  • player B: 132 games, 87 points (35 on power play), 17:20 toi/gp, -45 rating
  • fantilli: 129 games, 80 points (7 on power play), 16:48 toi/gp, -20 rating
 
IMO, Its probably in Fantilli’s best interest to not sign an extension until after next season. At that point it’s possible we see 8x10. For example if he hits 40G/40A. If Waddell offers him a long term deal this summer, I imagine it will be 8x8 or $8.5m at most.
 
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cbjthrowaway said:
blind comp time!
  • player A: 117 games, 52 points (15 on power play), 17:24 toi/gp, -29 rating
  • player B: 132 games, 87 points (35 on power play), 17:20 toi/gp, -45 rating
  • fantilli: 129 games, 80 points (7 on power play), 16:48 toi/gp, -20 rating
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answers:
  • player A: jack hughes when he signed his 8x8 extension
  • player B: tim stutzle when he signed his 8.35x8 extension
additional note: the cap was flat at $81.5m when both of these players signed their deals; it will be $95.5m when fantilli signs his this summer.

so… no, $10m isn't crazy for fantilli in theory given the projected cap growth after next year. might be something more along the lines of $9.5m given that werenski may have set the internal cap for now.
 
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Fantilli could score 50 goals next year, there is a good chance of it. I would have a $10m x 8 offer ready for him in case he is interested in signing the extension this summer.

cbjthrowaway said:
the fun and irresponsible thing here is to look at his last 41 games (where he only has one power play point) and extrapolate that into a full 82-game season, which nets out with:
  • a 44-28–72 line
  • 40 (!!!) even strength goals
  • 66 even strength points
  • a +28 rating
    • trailing only protas, hagel, draisaitl and eichel among forwards
that would put him firmly in the league lead for even strength goals (comfortably ahead of tage thompson's 37), seventh in even strength points (behind only pastrnak, mackinnon, kucherov, draisaitl, hagel and mcdavid) and fifth among forwards in +/-.
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I would be most bullish on him meeting (or exceeding) those point extrapolations. If he's on PP1, possibly exceeding them by a lot. Now I'm not sure where to put him on PP1 - Marchenko and KJ are excellent halfwall guys and Monahan is the best bumper and seemingly the most pivotal player (literally and figuratively).

I would be least bullish on the ES goal results / +/-. He's still been spending too much time stuck in our zone and our goalies have been bailing him out.
 
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8x10 seems reasonable to me. 8 yrs for sure, maybe as high as $11mm works. 11/107 = approximately 10% of cap in 2026-27. and decreases going forward.Seems reasonable for a 1C.
 
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majormajor said:
I would be most bullish on him meeting (or exceeding) those point extrapolations. If he's on PP1, possibly exceeding them by a lot. Now I'm not sure where to put him on PP1 - Marchenko and KJ are excellent halfwall guys and Monahan is the best bumper and seemingly the most pivotal player (literally and figuratively).
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the long-term shape of PP1 probably involves marchenko moving off the half-wall and into a position where he and monahan can trade off some of the bumper + netfront duties. marchenko's ability to win back pucks would be great down low.

they're not a "dual one-timer threats on the half walls" power play. they can (and i'd argue should) have a lefty attacking downhill. KJ has been (by far) their best right-side half wall guy but i think i'd like him better on the left side attacking downhill and running the unit with fantilli in the right circle.

KJ's deception and passing ability could really pop, as he'd have lefty one-timer options up top (werenski), in the bumper (monahan) and cross-ice (fantilli), plus a right handed shooting threat on the back post (marchenko) for tap-ins.

they could also do a sort of in-zone rotation set play where KJ carries it up high, werenski goes to the right circle as a one-timer threat and marchenko goes out to the right circle with fantilli and monahan in the middle. KJ's looked excellent up top.

majormajor said:
I would be least bullish on the ES goal results / +/-. He's still been spending too much time stuck in our zone and our goalies have been bailing him out.
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we're talking about a 41-game sample size here, a big chunk of which has seen the jackets get atrocious play in net.

his defensive zone reads leave a lot to be desired at present, but i'd bet on them being significantly better next season with more experience + an offseason of improvement. not to mention that the roster will likely be stronger on the blueline next year, too.

my other big concern with fantilli was that his game and KJ's didn't seem to mesh well at 5v5, especially post zone entry. the last couple games have really quelled that and they're creating a lot of good chemistry together.
 
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cbjthrowaway said:
the long-term shape of PP1 probably involves marchenko moving off the half-wall and into a position where he and monahan can trade off some of the bumper + netfront duties. marchenko's ability to win back pucks would be great down low.

they're not a "dual one-timer threats on the half walls" power play. they can (and i'd argue should) have a lefty attacking downhill. KJ has been (by far) their best right-side half wall guy but i think i'd like him better on the left side attacking downhill and running the unit with fantilli in the right circle.

KJ's deception and passing ability could really pop, as he'd have lefty one-timer options up top (werenski), in the bumper (monahan) and cross-ice (fantilli), plus a right handed shooting threat on the back post (marchenko) for tap-ins.

they could also do a sort of in-zone rotation set play where KJ carries it up high, werenski goes to the right circle as a one-timer threat and marchenko goes out to the right circle with fantilli and monahan in the middle. KJ's looked excellent up top.


we're talking about a 41-game sample size here, a big chunk of which has seen the jackets get atrocious play in net.

his defensive zone reads leave a lot to be desired at present, but i'd bet on them being significantly better next season with more experience + an offseason of improvement. not to mention that the roster will likely be stronger on the blueline next year, too.

my other big concern with fantilli was that his game and KJ's didn't seem to mesh well at 5v5, especially post zone entry. the last couple games have really quelled that and they're creating a lot of good chemistry together.
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KJ and Fantilli play at 2 different speeds which is definitely taking time but I agree, there are definitely flashes of a dynamic duo there. All the talent in the world between those 2 and now are working on the part that can't simply be taught and that's experience. A solid offseason there will be huge, especially another big one for KJ.

Long-term we just need to figure out who rounds out that group. Was fair to hope for Brindley who plays fast pace give and go game with a little bite but who knows when he'll be ready for NHL duty. Might not be someone we have in house right now but I'd be lying if I said I haven't envisioned Lindstrom-Fantilli-Johnson some time in the future
 
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stevo61 said:
KJ and Fantilli play at 2 different speeds which is definitely taking time but I agree, there are definitely flashes of a dynamic duo there. All the talent in the world between those 2 and now are working on the part that can't simply be taught and that's experience. A solid offseason there will be huge, especially another big one for KJ.
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they're also seeing huge improvements in the things that are being taught. too much one-and-done offense (or hurried low-danger chances) post-entry up until the last few games. now we're seeing more creative rush delay plays by both guys, some nice little give-and-gos, and smarter ways to create and take advantage of open space.

stevo61 said:
Long-term we just need to figure out who rounds out that group. Was fair to hope for Brindley who plays fast pace give and go game with a little bite but who knows when he'll be ready for NHL duty. Might not be someone we have in house right now but I'd be lying if I said I haven't envisioned Lindstrom-Fantilli-Johnson some time in the future
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there are other reasons to not like this guy as a target, but if they want to 'round out' the line this summer, brock boeser's strengths would certainly seem to align.

he doesn't do anything in transition, but that's not where KJ and fantilli need help. the in-zone play is where they need to make strides, and that's where boeser is great – in the o-zone. he's incredible at getting to dangerous areas, great along the boards, and can beat goalies from anywhere.

JVR's been a great fit on that line (and really, a great fit with KJ all year) – boeser would essentially be an improved (and much younger) version.

don't love the idea of the contract, but the player in a nutshell is exactly what they should target – a respected veteran who can make them more dangerous in the offensive zone. would also allow KJ to move to LW where frankly i think he'd be a lot more consistent.

the best trade option (which would presumably keep KJ at RW) would be jared mccann. and his contract fits extremely well.
 
cbjthrowaway said:
they're also seeing huge improvements in the things that are being taught. too much one-and-done offense (or hurried low-danger chances) post-entry up until the last few games. now we're seeing more creative rush delay plays by both guys, some nice little give-and-gos, and smarter ways to create and take advantage of open space.


there are other reasons to not like this guy as a target, but if they want to 'round out' the line this summer, brock boeser's strengths would certainly seem to align.

he doesn't do anything in transition, but that's not where KJ and fantilli need help. the in-zone play is where they need to make strides, and that's where boeser is great – in the o-zone. he's incredible at getting to dangerous areas, great along the boards, and can beat goalies from anywhere.

JVR's been a great fit on that line (and really, a great fit with KJ all year) – boeser would essentially be an improved (and much younger) version.

don't love the idea of the contract, but the player in a nutshell is exactly what they should target – a respected veteran who can make them more dangerous in the offensive zone. would also allow KJ to move to LW where frankly i think he'd be a lot more consistent.

the best trade option (which would presumably keep KJ at RW) would be jared mccann. and his contract fits extremely well.
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McCann would be a nice get to add even more offense to an already offensive duo but would probably be nicer to find a 2 way guy that can keep up
 
stevo61 said:
McCann would be a nice get to add even more offense to an already offensive duo but would probably be nicer to find a 2 way guy that can keep up
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JVR isn't fast or a two-way guy, and he's been an excellent fit with them just by being savvy and positionally sound.

jared mccann is a very good two-way forward. boeser's also better there than his reputation would suggest. keeping up isn't as much of a consideration as being able to keep plays alive or convert on scoring chances. both of those guys are great at getting in tight and making the most of those chances.
 
cbjthrowaway said:
JVR isn't fast or a two-way guy, and he's been an excellent fit with them just by being savvy and positionally sound.

jared mccann is a very good two-way forward. boeser's also better there than his reputation would suggest. keeping up isn't as much of a consideration as being able to keep plays alive or convert on scoring chances. both of those guys are great at getting in tight and making the most of those chances.
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There are different ways to accomplish the "getting there". JVR, Hartnell, etc made careers of reading plays but I don't think it means every player of that style works out as well. Boeser is fairly reliant on his linemates which obviously Fantilli-KJ have the potential to provide but I don't know if I love it on paper. Jenner kinda fills that role as a not incredibly speedy but get to dirty/scoring area's type and that didn't really work, felt like 3 guys pulling in 3 different directions.

It might be a hard pair to play with as they evolve too. Playing with talent isn't always easy but who knows, maybe if we do add Boeser he could work with Marchenko-Monahan and if Voronkov figures out his conditioning we might actually have the answer in house

McCann would be a good add, I didn't think he'd be a legit target but his contract is coming up right away, I thought it had more term.
 
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