Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIX

[AlexModvechkin8]

Orlov's more comfortable on the right side, so you could also list him there

RD that are pending UFAs

Dan Boyle
Marek Zidlicky
Stephane Robidas
Derek Morris
Matt Niskanen
Cory Sarich
Anton Stralman
Mark Fayne
Raphael Diaz
Mike Weaver
Tom Gilbert
Joe Corvo

Let's say you can add Morris and Robidas for $6M total (not unreasonable). Would you rather have Morris + Robidas + assets acquired in a Green trade, or Mike Green.

Depends what the assets are in the Mike Green trade. Does George trade 52 for a 2C and let Grabo walk? Does he trade him for a 2LD? Does he package Green + 1st/prospect for a 1LD? Whose to say the contract coming back for Green isn't similar to his? Would you be OK with trading Green for futures? I wouldn't. The team needs to win now while Ovie, Backs, Alzner, Carlson are all on the right age of 30 and under reasonable contracts.

If we could some how get Giordano (or another 1LD) for Green ++ AND sign Robidas and Morris (or Fayne) so our D would look like: Alzner-Carlson, Giordano-Robidas, Orlov-Morris then I'd be inclined to trade Green. If it's for futures or a 2C thereby just creating more holes in a porous defense then no, I'm not behind trading Green.

It is fairly obvious to me that our forward corps can get us to glory, especially with the addition of Kuzya. We should retain Grabo and focus all energy on shoring up the blueline. It also wouldn't hurt to get go begging JJ to come back and coach the D and give Calle a spot as Alumni Event Coordinator or anything other than Assistant Coach.

 

[Raikkonen]

But I would not sign a winger at all. We have too many. We need to move Fehr back to wing and bring in a true 3C. Preferably one that trolls like Ott.

Top 6 wingers: Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Brouwer, MJ, Fehr, Wilson, maybe Laich ...only room for 4 of these 7 and thats assuming Burakovsky doesn't light it up in camp and preseason. Our 3rd line wingers are set and we have plenty of 4th line wingers too.

Fehr has shown great chemistry with Grabovski. We don't need Kulemin.

You have to trade somebody to get D. So we could be short on wings soon enough. Also Chimmer and Wardo aren't that young. Competent winger wouldn't hurt, you can see McPhee got Penner for that.

And there is no evidence Kuz and Wilson are impact forwards for the whole season and playoffs, as of yet.

So your top-6 wingers are Ovechkin, Brouwer (could be traded as one of the better chips), Ward (you didn't listed, but he is capable), Fehr (a big historical if), MJ (another big if), Wilson (nothing known about him yet) and Laich (who is a best candidate for being our CBO). Adding Kuz = Ovechkin + 7 question marks.

 

[Raikkonen]

RD that are pending UFAs

Dan Boyle
Marek Zidlicky
Stephane Robidas
Derek Morris
Matt Niskanen
Cory Sarich
Anton Stralman
Mark Fayne
Raphael Diaz
Mike Weaver
Tom Gilbert
Joe Corvo


Who is true top-4 D better than Green from this list?

I'd agree to sign one of them and play him as 3RD and injury replacement for Green. Then if Green doesn't perform or progress or sign for less money trade him later in the season.

 

[Calicaps]

@washcaps: NEWS: #Caps Sign Caleb Herbert http://t.co/BrNrjQAj1f Will report to Hershey.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

RD that are pending UFAs

Dan Boyle
Marek Zidlicky
Stephane Robidas
Derek Morris
Matt Niskanen
Cory Sarich
Anton Stralman
Mark Fayne
Raphael Diaz
Mike Weaver
Tom Gilbert
Joe Corvo


Who is true top-4 D better than Green from this list?

You could make an argument for Niskanen.

But for me, most of those are just depth guys. The true replacement(s) would come through trade. I think Green + Brouwer + Mojo + can get you two top-4 D that are more effective than what we've got now.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we should trade Green at all costs. But if significant salary needs to be cut to add the players we need, he'd be my first choice to move.

 

[Raikkonen]

As was said here numerous times all of this requires VISION. Which McPhee does not have.

 

[Raikkonen]

You could make an argument for Niskanen.

But for me, most of those are just depth guys. The true replacement(s) would come through trade. I think Green + Brouwer + Mojo + can get you two top-4 D that are more effective than what we've got now.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we should trade Green at all costs. But if significant salary needs to be cut to add the players we need, he'd be my first choice to move.

1) I doubt Green/Brouwer/MJ lands 2 top4D without adding #1s or good prospects like Barber. Still I would think about it, not the end of the world.

2) If the problem is the cost of Green you can play Latta instead of Laich and get about 3,5M+ of cap space. Something like that. Make room for Wilson in top-6, play Beagle as 4RW for Wilson (move OV to the left) and so on. That is manageable.

I can live with Green/MJ/etc being traded if there is an improvement.

I'm just against trading OV, NB, KA, JC and EK.

First two trades can't be won by my opinion. KA and JC are the core. EK should be evaluated long and even more.


PS: Lately George got a couple of guys who play the game hard, with some grit and hockey sense. It seems like they are. Barber, Wilson, Latta, Brown. Add Beagle and you can make a case that Laich is redundant. He is replaceable. PP? Already. PK - should be done. ES wasn't his strong case anyway.

So George got the guys who can play some Laich minutes. For less money. Green like player isn't in the system at all and a rare commodity on the market. So that makes Green's situation different.

 

[BobRouse]

Im not asking what his +/- was..Im asking what 55's corsi stats were during his big +/- season...seeing how the corsi stats are the end all be all. Im assuming that the fancy stats indicate that 55 wasnt really that good of a player...otherwise the stats would be flawed, because in fact Schultz isnt a good player.

Green has been awful for most of the year defensively.."come a long way"? are you kidding me Hold on...were you in a coma or prison up until a week or two ago? That could explain it. I honestly can imagine how you can look at hie play, defensively, for most of this year and say "he's coming along nicely"

Not sure what Schultz's Corsi was. Thats a good question. But the team as a whole under BB was insane those years. EDIT: Guess who Schult'z D partner was...I'll give you one guess...

I watched most of the games this year. Pretty much Green's d partner has been young and inexperienced. All he needs is a vet next to him to hold the fort while he does his thing.

Read this from FJC:

Let's put this another way. Mike Green is a right-handed defenseman playing the right side of the defense. The lefties playing on the other side, and who might be a partner of Green's over the course of the season, include: Karl Alzner, Nate Schmidt, Dmitry Orlov, Alexander Urbom, John Erskine, and Jack Hillen. If you look at his minutes played at 5-on-5 this season, most of Green's time has been spent in partnership with Orlov (305 minutes) and Nate Schmidt (232 minutes). Yes, Green has spent 231 minutes with Alzner, but the point is that more than 60 percent of his five-on-five ice time this season (a total of 868 minutes) has been spent with a pair of youngsters with a combined total of 118 games of NHL experience, neither of whom project as stoppers themselves. Green has spent a lot of time with players who might one day be every-day NHLers, but who are not now what anyone would consider a true top-four defenseman on a team with playoff aspirations.

If anything, Green has covered for partners' shortcomings in an important respect. Let's take a closer look at those two players with whom Green has partnered most at five-on-five this season, Orlov and Schmidt. When paired with Green at full and even strength, Orlov has had a Corsi-for percentage of 57.4 percent (meaning almost 58% of the shots on goal, missed or blocked shots at five-on-five have been taken by the Caps when those two were on the ice together). When apart, Orlov's Corsi-for percentage drops to 45.1. Similarly, when Schmidt was paired with Green his Corsi-for percentage was 53.7, but when apart dropped to 48.3.


http://www.japersrink.com/2014/1/24/5341120/washington-capitals-on-trading-mike-green

Now that was about 6 weeks ago but it wasn't until Hillen's return a couple weeks ago that we have seen Green ratchet up his game.

Mike Green drives play. Simple as that. We are a team that struggles in that aspect and needs to improve. Removing our best (and few with positive corsi) will not accomplish that goal.

You could make an argument for Niskanen.

But for me, most of those are just depth guys. The true replacement(s) would come through trade. I think Green + Brouwer + Mojo + can get you two top-4 D that are more effective than what we've got now.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we should trade Green at all costs. But if significant salary needs to be cut to add the players we need, he'd be my first choice to move.

First I agree that the UFA pool is mostly depth guys at this point of their careers. One thing we don't lack is plenty of 5-7 dmen. We need top 4.

Now I don't think we need to cut significant salary. I mean as it stands we already have about $13 million for next year at this very moment.

Consider a $2 mil raise for Grabovski and Orlov's raise and thats about $10 mil left.

Thats without a Laich buyout (if that were to be the case) and the players we'd move to get that top 4 d (Brouwer+MJ = $5.5 million).

We'd have plenty of cap space. Thats not the problem. Finding top 4 dmen is the problem.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

You could make an argument for Niskanen.

But for me, most of those are just depth guys. The true replacement(s) would come through trade. I think Green + Brouwer + Mojo + can get you two top-4 D that are more effective than what we've got now.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we should trade Green at all costs. But if significant salary needs to be cut to add the players we need, he'd be my first choice to move.

Niskanen is having a career year in a contract year. Has he improved that much this season due to development or just coincidence that he's playing this well in a contract year?

What would you trade Green for? I'm in the camp where unless he's being traded to upgrade the left side of the D then I don't want him going any where. I don't want him traded for F/C or futures UNLESS it's part of another deal to get D help. Your thoughts?

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I agree with you on AO, JC, KA, and EK, but there are a bunch of trades I'd do for Nicklas Backstrom. He seems to be already losing foot speed, despite the weight loss, and his defensive game is terrible now.

I already suggested the Phoenix trade for Yandle/Hanzal. Some others I'd consider if the peripheral pieces are right, some based on the Mike Richards template (Top Prospect + good young player + solid future)

To Colorado based around O'Reilly and Bigras
To Columbus based around Boone Jenner and Wennberg
To Edmonton based around RNH and Mitch Moroz
To Florida based around Barkov and McCoshen or Bjugstad and Gudbrandson
To Montreal based around Subban or Galchenyuk and Tinordi
To Nashville based around Weber or Jones and Sissons
To Ottawa based around Lazar and Turris
To San Jose based around Couture and Tierney
To Vancouver based around Garrison/Hamhuis and Horvat
To Winnipeg based around Trouba and Scheifele

Now obviously, some of these teams wouldn't do those trades, and there might need to be some adjustment/additions by the Caps for others, but that's what I'd target. And for the trades that don't immediately bring back a #1 center, I wouldn't consider them without a Grabo extension (or alternatively a Stastny signing).

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of signing Stastny and trading Backstrom, especially if values similar to those above can be had.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I agree with you on AO, JC, KA, and EK, but there are a bunch of trades I'd do for Nicklas Backstrom. He seems to be already losing foot speed, despite the weight loss, and his defensive game is terrible now.

I already suggested the Phoenix trade for Yandle/Hanzal. Some others I'd consider if the peripheral pieces are right, some based on the Mike Richards template (Top Prospect + good young player + solid future)

To Colorado based around O'Reilly and Bigras
To Columbus based around Boone Jenner and Wennberg
To Edmonton based around RNH and Mitch Moroz
To Florida based around Barkov and McCoshen or Bjugstad and Gudbrandson
To Montreal based around Subban or Galchenyuk and Tinordi
To Nashville based around Weber or Jones and Sissons
To Ottawa based around Lazar and Turris
To San Jose based around Couture and Tierney
To Vancouver based around Garrison/Hamhuis and Horvat
To Winnipeg based around Trouba and Scheifele

Now obviously, some of these teams wouldn't do those trades, and there might need to be some adjustment/additions by the Caps for others, but that's what I'd target. And for the trades that don't immediately bring back a #1 center, I wouldn't consider them without a Grabo extension (or alternatively a Stastny signing).

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of signing Stastny and trading Backstrom, especially if values similar to those above can be had.

I love Backstrom, but if we could trade him for D help and sign Stasny the team is instantly better. That would certainly be a core shake-up that many are clamoring for. I wonder how team chemistry would be affect -- 19 is one of the most liked players on the team.

Out of the trades your purpose above, I'd most support the ones you mentioned with MTL, NSH, or WIN. I think Subban would be an unbelievable addition here, especially on Oates' PP. Trouba is going to be a stud. I'd also kill to have Jones here. With Nashville's atrocious track record of drafting and/or developing elite forward talent, I wonder if they'd be willing to part with Weber/Jones or a bonafide 1C.

Do you think Backstrom for Subban is realistic? I think MTL would want us to add a fairly significant piece(s).

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Niskanen is having a career year in a contract year. Has he improved that much this season due to development or just coincidence that he's playing this well in a contract year?

What would you trade Green for? I'm in the camp where unless he's being traded to upgrade the left side of the D then I don't want him going any where. I don't want him traded for F/C or futures UNLESS it's part of another deal to get D help. Your thoughts?

Minnesota for something around Brodziak and Coyle/Dumba would be a good deal. Gets the Caps a top-end 3C and either a hard-nosed young forward that can play center or a top-notch RD prospect.

I'd love Gudbranson from Florida. I think he's right on the cusp of becoming a physically punishing top-4 defensive LD.

San Jose for Demers+ returns a RH puckmover that's younger and is under team control longer.

Without knowing all the teams that need a RH puckmover, it's hard to come up with a lot of trades.

I'm sure there's teams out there that would trade very valuable futures for him, which could in turn be traded for another top-4 D (e.g., Ehrhoff).

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I love Backstrom, but if we could trade him for D help and sign Stasny the team is instantly better. That would certainly be a core shake-up that many are clamoring for. I wonder how team chemistry would be affect -- 19 is one of the most liked players on the team.

Out of the trades your purpose above, I'd most support the ones you mentioned with MTL, NSH, or WIN. I think Subban would be an unbelievable addition here, especially on Oates' PP. Trouba is going to be a stud. I'd also kill to have Jones here. With Nashville's atrocious track record of drafting and/or developing elite forward talent, I wonder if they'd be willing to part with Weber/Jones or a bonafide 1C.

Do you think Backstrom for Subban is realistic? I think MTL would want us to add a fairly significant piece(s).

Depends on if the Subban vs. Therrien stuff has any substance and if Montreal would side with Therrien. I think Backstrom + Green for Subban + could be something that might have legs.

 

[Langway]

I wonder if St. Louis would be interested in Backstrom should their run fall short this year. Berglund & Schwartz would be decent value I think.

Really, though, they need a coach that has a clue at even-strength rather than surrender and limit their flow off the hop.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I wonder if St. Louis would be interested in Backstrom should their run fall short this year. Berglund & Schwartz would be decent value I think.

Really, though, they need a coach that has a clue at even-strength rather than surrender and limit their flow off the hop.

That would hurt because Backstrom would absolutely thrive under Hitch.

 

[BobRouse]

I wonder if St. Louis would be interested in Backstrom should their run fall short this year. Berglund & Schwartz would be decent value I think.

Really, though, they need a coach that has a clue at even-strength rather than surrender and limit their flow off the hop.

Man people are jumping off the Backstrom bandwagon after a few weeks of subpar play.

I think we need to relax. Backstrom is a great player, a true #1C, top 10 in scoring, #3 assist man, and the best passer in the league behind Thornton and Crosby.

Did I mention he is on an outstanding contract for a player of his ilk?

Players struggle from time to time whether they are named Backstrom, Giroux, Malkin etc. Lets not rush to judgment here.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

That would hurt because Backstrom would absolutely thrive under Hitch.

Maybe we can just get Hitch instead. Wouldn't be surprised if they fire him if they flame out early in the play-offs again.

The irritating thing is I think if Ovechkin was raised under a coach like Hitch, he could rival Crosby for best player in the world. He was just never pressed to develop his game.

 

[Carlzner]

Backstrom won't be traded. Say all you want about his defensive game or whatever but he still has 56 assists and is almost a PPG. This team would look significantly worse without him. It's silly even suggesting otherwise.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Man people are jumping off the Backstrom bandwagon after a few weeks of subpar play.

I think we need to relax. Backstrom is a great player, a true #1C, top 10 in scoring, #3 assist man, and the best passer in the league behind Thornton and Crosby.

Did I mention he is on an outstanding contract for a player of his ilk?

Players struggle from time to time whether they are named Backstrom, Giroux, Malkin etc. Lets not rush to judgment here.

I don't think anyone is rushing to judgment. Backstrom has been good but not great (outside of a few stretches) since 2011. He and Ovechkin do nothing together at ES any more. He's also completely disappeared in the play-offs. Last year I thought he was often the worst player on the ice on many occasions. It's just exploring options to make the team better.

 

[BobRouse]

I don't think anyone is rushing to judgment. Backstrom has been good but not great (outside of a few stretches) since 2011. He and Ovechkin do nothing together at ES any more. He's also completely disappeared in the play-offs. Last year I thought he was often the worst player on the ice on many occasions. It's just exploring options to make the team better.

Backstrom is a top 10 scorer this year. Easily a top 10 center in the league. He is elite.

Lots of guys had a bad playoffs last year. Lundqvuist can do that and so can the refs by giving the other team a massive PP advantage.

He was dominant at stretches this season and lately he's been below average. Maybe an olympic hangover after the disaster ruling by the IOC.

Making the team better does not equal trading our elite #1C. It would create another gaping hole while filling one. The last time a team traded a true #1C was probably Boston in the Thornton deal and that got their GM fired.

There are plenty of other ways to improve the team. Trading Backstrom is at the bottom of the list next to trading Ovechkin, Alzner and Carlson.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Backstrom is a top 10 scorer this year. Easily a top 10 center in the league. He is elite.

Lots of guys had a bad playoffs last year. Lundqvuist can do that and so can the refs by giving the other team a massive PP advantage.

He was dominant at stretches this season and lately he's been below average. Maybe an olympic hangover after the disaster ruling by the IOC.

Making the team better does not equal trading our elite #1C. It would create another gaping hole while filling one. The last time a team traded a true #1C was probably Boston in the Thornton deal and that got their GM fired.

There are plenty of other ways to improve the team. Trading Backstrom is at the bottom of the list next to trading Ovechkin, Alzner and Carlson.

Crosby
Malkin
Toews
Tavares
Kopitar
Stamkos
Getzlaf
Seguin
Giroux
Duchene

That's 10 I'd take over Backstrom for this season and beyond. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the ones not out-producing him right now would be if they were able to feed #8 in this PP set up.

Do you know where Backstrom ranks among centers in even strength points?

41.

 

[BobRouse]

Crosby
Malkin
Toews
Tavares
Kopitar
Stamkos
Getzlaf
Seguin
Giroux
Duchene

That's 10 I'd take over Backstrom for this season. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the ones not out-producing him right now would be if they were able to feed #8 in this PP set up.

Do you know where Backstrom ranks among centers in even strength points?

41.

His shooting pctg is abnormally low this year and the whole team has struggled 5 on 5 mainly b/c of the young D we've had who can't get out of their own zone.

Getzlaf, Malkin, Giroux, Stamkos, Crosby, Toews would clearly be taken ahead. The other guys its debateable. To me he is a not top 5 or 6 but definitely is in the discussion after that...and thats some DAMN GOOD COMPANY would you not say?? Even if you were to make cases that he falls just out of the top 10 (which I firmly believe he is in). The jury is still out on Duchesne, Seguin and Tavares. None of those guys (nor Kopitar) have finished a full season at a PPG and they aren't exactly defensive stallwarts. Lets not crown them just yet.

 

[Mothra]

I still don't understand this fold under pressure business. He's been outstanding the last 2 playoffs and has a ridiculous amount of OT goals to his credit.

No....no he hasnt been "outstanding".....Outstanding describes his play early in his career, in the regular season mainly. The last couple playoffs im not sure any skater was "outstanding" Alzner/Carlson against Boston come close....52 was certainly better this last playoff than he had showed previously but its not "outstanding".

Wasnt he even yanked off the PP by Hunter and replaced with Wideman? Even that year I think he was better than previous years but still....not "outstanding" or really even close

 

[BobRouse]

No....no he hasnt been "outstanding".....Outstanding describes his play early in his career, in the regular season mainly. The last couple playoffs im not sure any skater was "outstanding" Alzner/Carlson against Boston come close....52 was certainly better this last playoff than he had showed previously but its not "outstanding".

Wasnt he even yanked off the PP by Hunter and replaced with Wideman? Even that year I think he was better than previous years but still....not "outstanding" or really even close

Yeah but Hunterhockey should not be a barometer of any sane supporting arguments for or against a player.

Remember Hunter also thought Keith Aucoin was a better PP option than Semin. Think about that.

He thought it was a good idea to roll with that disastrous Schultz/Wideman pairing.

I think Green and Hamrlik were on the ice for like 1 ES goal total in 2 playoff series or something absurd like that. Green/Hamr were awesome against Boston right along with Carlzner. It was the two bumblers who continually cost us.

Green was very good that playoffs and even better last year.

 

[Raikkonen]

Adding Stastny to Backstrom and Grabo is a good idea I think.

If we can stand Laich's 4,5 we will surely survive with 3 good centers in the roster instead of some redundant players.