BMAC needs to focus on resigning Carlson now. From all indications, Shattenkirk was being heavily pursued by NJ and Buffalo before deciding to sign with the NYR. Right after the MOJO trade Devils fans were talking about the team pursuing Carlson once he hits the UFA market and bringing him home. Looking at right shooting defenseman, there does not seem to be many available come 2018 free agency, so Carlson will be heavily sought after as demonstrated by the recent pursuit of Shattenkirk's services. Two dman from Hershey will be filing the void left by Alzner and Schmidt this season. Chorney and Carlson are both in the last season of their contracts, thus at the very minimum you can see another Hershey dman join the ranks next season and then another one the season after that once Orpik departs. That's a changeover of 4 dman coming from Hershey in a period of three years hence the need to maintain some stability by signing Carlson ASAP!
17/18
Niskanen - Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Orpik - Hershey
Chorney
18/19
Niskanen -Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Orpik - Hershey
Hershey
19/20
Niskanen - Orlov
Hershey - Carlson
Hershey - Hershey
Hershey
You can trust whatever you want to trust. I would never use the buy out for this team, at this time. It's creating a lower cap ceiling than your competition. That's moronic to do in the last few Ovy/Backs years.
Schmidt or Orpik for 2017 season.....one v the other isnt going to mean "plan the parade". As I have stated a few times now, I think the 2017-18 season is one of transition, where they are going to try and position themselves for 18-19 and beyond. Having Schmidt + 2.5 in wasted space for 18-19 (or 1.5m for 19-20 & 20-21) is plain dumb.
It's obvious that they want Orpik for *this season* to help mentor 1-2 young D-men. Maybe 2-3, depending on injuries etc. They see that as a necessary piece. You dismiss what Orpik may have done for your favourite 2 players that you tout you know so much about (Orlov and Schmidt). I assume you totally disregard his value to their growth. The team doesn't disregard it.(and I'm certain I will trust their knowledge of this over yours, twabmind...no disrespect). So they want him around for Bowey, Siegenthaler, Lewington, Djoos, etc. At least for this year.
So they have Orpik. They want him for 2017. You dont agree because all you look at is on-ice metrics. Ok then.
I think Trotz is gone next summer (or sooner). This will be Rierdon's club shortly. Then you and others can shred him too for knowing less than you about coaching and line construction. Orpik will be gone too, IMO, but he will have earned his $$$ by propping up the kids for 2018, and they will use his $$$ to resign Carlson.
I see the future top 4 as being
Orlov/Niskanen
Carlson/Bowey
Prob starting 2018. Orpik will play a part in that.
Well, if they feel that they can earn more than 62.8m over 8 years by breaking the contract into 2 pieces, then they do it. NBA guys do it all the time.
Say it was 6.5m for 3 years (so 19.5m total). Then 9.5m for another 5 years (of UFA) as salaries have risen and his performance merits it.
So thats 67m over 8 years, not 62.8m. Or they do the 8yr deal post the bridge (10mx8years).
Lots of options.
I see the future top 4 as being
Orlov/Niskanen
Carlson/Bowey
Prob starting 2018. Orpik will play a part in that.
This is where I hope they use the prospects glut at G and D to add F's. I think they are easier to acquire (wingers, especially). I hope they sign Gersich, and let him play for a spot (a la Sanford last year).
I honestly think Grubauer and Samsanov (heck, even Vanicek) will get dealt. Holtby has another 5 years....just on his current contract. I dont see them holding onto to Samsanov for that long (and certainly not Grubauer). If a deal is to be made, its prob for an F
Acting as he was brutal last season. He was 18th in points among centers. Tied for 12th in ES points among centers.
Combine the last 2 years. List of players that produce more on the even-strength goes: Crosby, Scheifele, McDavid. Period. 7 points ahead of John Tavares. 13 ahead of Nicklas Backstrom. 21 ahead of Jonathan Toews. 31 ahead of Patrice Bergeron. 40 ahead of Claude Giroux.
Brutal? I didn't say that, but he wasn't elite like he just got paid and your selective stats highlight. Did you forget the first 1/4 of the season? I'm being realistic. He's put in one great partial season so far and got paid for it because he threatened a desperate franchise that he would take his ball and run home. If you think he's been elite (like he just got paid) for the entire last two entire seasons, his disappearing act that last part of the previous season and subsequent playoff disappearing act, and 59 points and 19 goals last season combined with common sense disagree. Not saying he's not a great player and this deal in 3 years might seem a lot better, but try to be honest with yourself when assessing the player and the situation.
There's no accompanying "Circle of trust" ceremony with a bridge deal. It's simply business. Go out and prove your worth, not just show us one awesome partial season.
I imagine Kuzy's agent was asking $8mil + per initially and I bet the Caps would have seriously considered a shorter deal if there was no Khl threat.
I love how you spend the whole post talking about how others don't know squat and then finish it by postulating that our future 2nd pair -- one that you think is worth paying Carlson 7m per -- is two right-shot defensemen with similar skillsets.
So which guy are you moving to the left? "Carlson/Bowey" makes it look like Carlson's on the left. So you're going to pay him 7 million to play his weak side while a lesser RD plays the right? Or are you going to curtail Bowey's future by putting him on his weak side?
Also, you keep insisting we would have had to buy Orpik out to lose his hit. You don't know that. Mac insists he was keen on keeping him, so it's unclear if we could have moved him with 50% retained. That's far from impossible.
You also keep insisting that our speculation about expansion and MoJo/Schmidt requires hindsight. It doesn't. The only things it requires are:
1) Understanding Schmidt's value. And here I mean his value in general, his value to Vegas, and his specific value to us as a team in severe need of a 2LD (so much so that one of our biggest fans wants to sacrifice Bowey or Carlson's futures to manufacture one).
2) Understanding the impending cost of Oshie and our RFA crop.
It seems now that they grossly underestimated both of those things, and they had all year and 6 weeks after elimination to wrap their heads around both.
Schmidt's performance last year was pretty stellar. His value to Vegas versus Grubauer seems obvious given the goalie market and McPhee's announcement to the entire world that he planned to use expansion to leverage a team's needs to increase his position.
The whole world knew we needed a 2LD WAAAYYYYYY more than a backup keeper, so it was never a matter of, "Will they take Schmidt or Grubauer???" McPhee made it clear that he'd leverage our preference for Schmidt to pay him to select Grubauer or someone else.
Given that huge chunk of obvious, knowing how much our RFAs would cost became VERY important and, again, Mac had all year to narrow that ballpark figure down to something he could be reasonably sure of.
It requires ZERO hindsight to take all of this into account, and we have a GM and his staff working around the clock for weeks to do exactly that. They blew it. Huge.
If they had properly done just those two things, there is absolutely no reason they couldn't have landed on a decision to sacrifice MoJo for a crap return, explored every avenue to move Orpik, considered not signing Connolly, maybe looked to swap Eller for a less costly option, looked at cheaper alternatives to Oshie (Williams!), or any of the many other possibilities.
The way it unfolded makes it clear they got outmaneuvered or planned poorly in major ways.
Your mileage may vary. I respect that you've made your peace with this and have decided that we (and damn near every media outlet not paid by Ted Leonsis) are wrong. But not allowing for these possibilities and giving management a blanket pass for how it ended up seems a bit much.
Niskanen will probably start to decline at some point, he's 30 and he's already not the fastest guy. That makes resigning Carlson more critical.
Take a look in the mirror.
My ''selective stats highlight'' is based on his performance for the duration of the bridge contract previously discussed. Yours is the one highlighting the bad stretches that majority of the elite players go through. Either way keep highlighting the small sample size stretches all you want, i don't need to get to that.
I thought that these negotiations were simply business. Why are you complaining about his agent for taking full advantage of that?
Carlson has declined the last two years. What is critical is finding out what some of the young guys have. At this point I think it's more likely than not that Carlson has reached his ceiling.
I don't see a complaint, simply an assessment of what actually happened. Is there a complaint in there somehow made up by your own mind?
I highlight 1 of the 2 most important times in the last 2 years. His no show last playoffs killed the team and is worth talking about. I carefully discern that while you simply lump the last two seasons all together with the dime store analysis of a guy seemingly talking about his favorite player who can do no wrong.
50+ points and an all-situations player. That's not a ceiling any of their prospects are likely to hit. Absolute best-case maybe Hobbs could match that offensive production if everything and more goes right but he's got a way to go to be an all-situations defenseman.But that ceiling, when he's healthy should be 50+ points shouldn't it? Not a bad ceiling.
so no Dman can play to his off-side? didnt know that was such a hard and fast rule. noted.
For you to say that they had all year to prepare is disingenuous. You assume the other side of the equation was clear and concise around their needs. Kuz and his agent put all of their cards on the table months ago, is that it?
retaining in Orpik is no different than a by out, as it leads to wasted cap space. They dont see the value in doing that (wasted cap space in the last few Ovy years), and I dont see it either. They obv didnt see a value in trading Orpik either, not with whatever cost would have been associated with it.
I was also very clear in the Connolly thread that I didnt want him resigned at any value. So not sure where I have management as pass their either.
Okay i'll bite once more. How the statistics i pointed out were selective? Because i value the ~180 game sample size more than 2 stretches of ~10 games? That's how these contracts are worked out, you know.
The end of regular season of '15-'16 that you pointed out as disappearing act.
Grubi didn't file for arbitration.
Not when there are specific, major advantages to having both players on their strong side, no. It's not like Schmidt playing his weak side this season, because Schmidt has no shot and Orpik on his strong side anchored the pair. Carlson/Bowey isn't remotely similar.
If you see 2nd-pair potential in Bowey, it should be to maximize all that he does well, and a good portion of that favors his strong side. Same with Carlson.
Those two together would be wasteful. If anyone saw Bowey playing LD, there wouldn't be much discussion at all about Djoos right now.
If Bowey strongly projected as a quality top-4 D, it would be to play on the right and to justify trading John Carlson. As it is now, he's a 3RD at best if he makes the team at all. Seeing him as a top-4 LD is laughable.
Lol, what possible gain does the player get from being coy about what they want? What the player wants is never a secret in negotiations. MacLellan DID have all year to assess each of those situations. In the cases of Orlov and Kuznetsov where the KHL is a very real option, you have to treat them like UFAs. They can sign with someone else, period.
So yes, GMBM should have had a very good idea of what these deals would cost prior to expansion. The results were in at that point. The season was over for us for 6 weeks and there was little reason for him to NOT be working on it well before that.
Being surprised in a big way by the cost of any of those deals and the potential fallout shouldn't have been an option. They should have considered all of it beforehand and clearly did not.
Don't be daft. There is a very literal 2-year, $2.5 million difference between 50% retention and a buyout. The "wasted cap space" is mitigated greatly by not losing valuable players for nothing, keep specific players that have more value immediately AND long-term, and not being terrible at your job.
It's hilarious that you believe the siren song of the virtues of keeping Brooks Orpik as if they're not 100% motivated by the sudden and glaring need for a left defenseman because they botched Schmidt, having to say SOMETHING to justify to fans why they just punted a great contract and kept a horrible one, and justifying the continued existence of a contract that was a bad idea in the first place.
No one's buying that song and dance but you. We all quietly appreciate the value Orpik has left, but NO ONE but MacLellan has ANY reason to defend it so publicly at the moment, purely in an attempt to save face. There is nothing that justifies paying Orpik $11 million over the next two years given the horrible position that contract has put us in. Mac's praises are woefully hollow.
You ignored a ton of my feelings on these topics and players in the exact post you quoted to start this conversation, and you expect me to do a deep dive into your posting history to find out how you feel about Brett Connolly? No thanks.
And you're skipping my point here, too, which is that discarding Connolly was just another of PLENTY of ways to afford a much better path forward as these events unfolded. You keying on that one to bring up a post you made whenever ago in another thread is just more baiting.
BMAC needs to focus on resigning Carlson now
Agreed. Now is def the time to push for a Carlson contract extension.
That makes resigning Carlson more critical.
Wasting cap space is wasting cap space. 50% retention is 2yrs of wasted cap space. 2.75m of it. How am I being "daft" by stating thats its moronic to waste cap space -- in any manner -- during Ovey's last few years? Spin it any way you want, its a bad decision.
The rest of it.....well, I think you like to argue, and put words in people's mouths. So we can just leave it at that. I dont see reason to engage in your tactics any further. its a waste of my time (and yours)