Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[hockeykicker]

sounds like oshie isnt going anywhere based off interviews today and a deal will come fast

 

[Langway]

They're not going to trade Holtby. They're not going to trade Ovechkin. They're not going to trade Backstrom. They're not going to fire Trotz.

The biggest off-season dilemma is likely what to do with Orpik. Not moving him probably means no room for Williams and, of the two, they need William's leadership more IMO. Plus, they can't seriously rely on Wilson and Hershey players to offset the loss of Williams. That assumes Williams wants to return but, if not him, they'll need an established vet scoring winger regardless. It's not going to be filled by Wilson, Connolly or Vrana.

There will be some stay-at-home issues sans Alzner & Orpik potentially but someone like Lewington could get a chance or they could find a depth PKer type in UFA. Schmidt staying would help obviously but even if Vegas takes him the Orpik contract needs to be dealt with in some fashion.

 

[twabby]

https://tedstake.monumentalsportsnetwork.com/2017/05/12/this-loss-hurts

So no rebuild, no real reflection due to pressure to provide to the fans and probably losing Carlson after next year for nothing. Rinse repeat.

Why should the rebuild start next season?

Where in there does it say they will lose Carlson for nothing?

How can you say there will be no reflection? He says: "We will do our best to dissect and critically examine why we weren’t able to advance further. Then we will focus on how to improve." That sounds like reflection.

I respect many of your opinions but I feel like you really take it way over the top with your claims of organizational failure and that includes hyper-analyzing a god damn blog post. They've been legitimate contenders from 2009-2017, minus a few seasons in the middle with Hunter/Oates. Have they always made the right moves? No, but they've positioned themselves well for almost a decade. Organizationally they have been fine, and I feel like if you distance yourself a bit from the situation you might realize that.

 

[hockeyfan88]

Holtby not elite level?

Sure, his playoffs was subpar, when compared with his play in past playoffs, but he's a top 3 goalie in the league.

The Caps lost. It stings, it's terrible, but it's not like they got blown out of the rink. For what it's worth, you can make a credible argument that the Caps outplayed the Pens for much of the series. A bounce here, a goal there, and they moved on. It didn't happen. It's hockey. It just does. Not everyone's going to win each game. They lost to the second best team in the league.

Saying that players who are Vezina level are good but not great or a system goalie is just revisionist.

But we have to account his best years were played under defense first systems since the Hunter era. How much of his stats were inflated by that is a valid discussion imo. Maybe calling him a system guy was a bit harsh, I admit, but I don't put him in the same class of Lundqvist and Price, even if their stats are similar. The difference in talent is pretty clear when you watch the games.

I think Holtby is a very good goalie, make no mistake, but I always wondered if Varlamov under Korn's guidance would be a better option.

That kid was crazy talented and could steal games by himself.

 

[EroCaps]

Am I the only one not in love with Vrana? I'm not ready to give up on him, of course, but I wasn't nearly as impressed as the collective Caps HF community, and I worry that slotting him into a top six spot may be a big mistake for 17-18.

Nah, I thought they should have traded one of Vrana or Bura for a playoff caliber top 6 forward. You know, one that doesn't disappear for 10-15 games at a time.

Vrana looks every bit of Tomas Fleischmann.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...reakdown-day-as-washingtons-offseason-begins/

plenty of updates on a lot of players there

LOL - KS wants to be a #1 somewhere.

 

[hockeyfan88]

@dcsportsbog
Barry Trotz said incessant talk of past failures is "becoming a joke to the guys," something they laugh at. I...do not believe that.

So funny.

 

[twabby]

So funny.

Yeah that seems like a weird thing to say given that Carlson, Backstrom, and Niskanen have directly contradicted that in their exit interviews. They realize something is wrong in the room and I guess Trotz doesn't?

 

[Chimaera]

But we have to account his best years were played under defense first systems since the Hunter era. How much of his stats were inflated by that is a valid discussion imo. Maybe calling him a system guy was a bit harsh, I admit, but I don't put him in the same class of Lundqvist and Price, even if their stats are similar. The difference in talent is pretty clear when you watch the games.

I think Holtby is a very good goalie, make no mistake, but I always wondered if Varlamov under Korn's guidance would be a better option.

That kid was crazy talented and could steal games by himself.

And where are both of those goalies? That's right, out of the playoffs.

His numbers the last two years have been elite. It doesn't hurt to play on one of the best teams in the league, but his talent has been able to win games even when their defense wasn't the greatest.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think he's not one of the top 3 or 4 in the league.

 

[third man in]

LOL - KS wants to be a #1 somewhere.

He wants to be paid like a #1 somewhere. He can go to the Rags lol

 

[Fondue]

Failure is only excusable for so long. And I think the excuses finally ran out.

At this point, if I was GM (or hell, even Ted), I'd start to consider moving/parting ways with one or two main-stays in the room. Whatever it is, it simply isn't working. And it hasn't with this core.

I would honestly consider moving both Ovie and Holtby.

I'm a huge #8 fan, but I'm also a realist. He's not getting it done as the main-guy and hasn't gotten it done his entire career. His biggest accomplishments are at the World Championship level and that's it. Even if he drops a bunch of weight and his leg fully recovers, I don't see him being anywhere near as dominant as he was-- even in the later stages of his prime. He also clearly disappointed this playoff season. He was absolutely injured and everyone could see that, but he still made some questionable plays and his effort was up and down. I feel like the disappointments of constantly losing have caught up to him. Hell, I think he was feeling the losses for a few years now. He doesn't have a winner's drive. At least that's my opinion.

I think Holtby is a fantastic, game-changing, top-tier goaltender. But I think he too, is mentally fragile. I'm not sure how many athletes have a sport-psych, but apparently Holtby is always in contact with his. That just screams insecurity to me. I dunno if he's got the right headspace to win. Also, constantly losing when it matters most after being so dominant the entire regular season must really **** him up.

The best and biggest move WSH can dot his off-season is to part ways with their franchise player. They don't need to completely blow it up, as they still have great pieces. But they do need a drastic change, but something BIG needs to happen. There needs to be a shock in the room and some of that bad juju must go. I love Ovie. I really do. Fantastic athlete that gave many, many years of enjoyable hockey for us all. But just like breaking up, sometimes it is "for the best."

As far as who assumes the role of Captain?
Backstrom would definitely be a sufficient choice, but I'm not sure he would want it. He's definitely a leader of this team, but I don't think he's the guy that wants to wear that letter.
Niskanen? Maybe? I dunno. He plays well and always available to speak after teh room, but is he a leader?
Orpik? He's too old. Whether or not he gets traded/bought out or stays, he's still too old. He'd be gone "soon" either way.

If they somehow manage to keep Oshie (long term), I'd consider giving him the C. The dude WORKS HARD. I know he didn't score that weird opportunity with the puck hanging around his stick/feet in g7, but man, he was outstanding these playoffs (and regular season, obviously). He was battling really, really hard and constantly produced opportunities. To me, he was the best Caps player all POs. If I'm a teammate and I'm seeing my captain do what he's doing--> I'm buying what he's selling.

Just my $0.02.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

I know the Steinberg tweet was quoted already, but Isabelle responded to the tweet then followed up with this quote from Niskenen. There appears to be a differing of opinions in the Caps "room".

I also just saw this:




Trotz comes off as either clueless or he doesn't give a ****. Which ever one it is it feels like he could be one of the non-cosmetic changes this off season.

 

[g00n]

Trotz is trying to keep the heat off himself and the players. The coach saying "yeah there's something seriously wrong here and everyone is upset about it" is close to saying "fire me".

 

[amjay13]

If you want to tinker move MOJO90. His value will never be higher.

 

[Langway]

How can you say there will be no reflection? He says: "We will do our best to dissect and critically examine why we weren’t able to advance further. Then we will focus on how to improve." That sounds like reflection.

You're not truly reflecting on what's best for the organization if you've already concluded this off-season's top priority remains doing all it takes to win next season. They're still all-in all the time, in part because they think that's what fans want to hear but it's also best for the bottom line. I don't think they believe they could sell a rebuild even if they wanted to do it. And so it's never contemplated.

Perhaps Carlson is retained beyond next year but I doubt he's traded this off-season in order to become younger or more viable long-term. I highly doubt they make any moves in that direction until much more than playoff disappointment happens. It will take regular season dysfunction and the market drying up for more significant change to happen. It will have to be an unavoidable conclusion. It's just a damn blog post but it's also the person that will most heavily shape every single significant move this organization makes. I still don't believe he's any fundamentally different than Snyder. It's less egregious but he's still a problem. He's already set the agenda.

They're married to this core, in part because they believe the fanbase unconditionally loves them. It's the result of their marketing, which also boxes them into avoiding the contemplation of difficult decisions. They are indeed a fine organization. They spend and consistently have been positioned to compete. They just aren't great and excellence is as elusive as ever. It's not just a matter of improving practices in what went wrong this season. It's also a matter of figuring out how to do more with less and that's a particularly difficult dynamic compared to the past two seasons. Development has to be at the forefront in increasing efficiency but particularly offensively they don't have the environment in place to truly develop their own Rust, Sheary and Guentzel. At some point you just have to conclude certain people are who they are and answers aren't to be found in post-mortems involving all of the same actors who have failed to come up with solutions for years.

 

[Hivemind]

Now let's see if Oshie's desire to remain a Capital means he's willing to leave term/net money on the board to do it. I have no problem with keeping Oshie if they're not giving him $6M when he's 35+ years old.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Trotz is trying to keep the heat off himself and the players. The coach saying "yeah there's something seriously wrong here and everyone is upset about it" is close to saying "fire me".

But he is saying the players laughed at the choke talk at the same time his players are saying there is something to the choke talk. They are contradicting each other.

 

[g00n]

But he is saying the players laughed at the choke talk at the same time his players are saying there is something to the choke talk. They are contradicting each other.

I know. I don't expect him to keep a log of every quote made by the players. He's spinning things.

 

[Hometown70s]

I thought McPhee failed miserably to put a better team/coach around a young OVI and Trotz has never gotten by the second round but:

McPhee/Boudreau/Ovi,

McPhee/Hunter/Ovi,

Mcphee/Oates/Ovi,

B-Mac/Trotz/Ovi,

“C†the problem ?

 

[hockeyfan88]

Holtby not elite level?

Sure, his playoffs was subpar, when compared with his play in past playoffs, but he's a top 3 goalie in the league.

The Caps lost. It stings, it's terrible, but it's not like they got blown out of the rink. For what it's worth, you can make a credible argument that the Caps outplayed the Pens for much of the series. A bounce here, a goal there, and they moved on. It didn't happen. It's hockey. It just does. Not everyone's going to win each game. They lost to the second best team in the league.

Saying that players who are Vezina level are good but not great or a system goalie is just revisionist.

Yeah, but both Montreal and NYR were not Cup contenders and didn't have the same roster as Holtby in terms of talent and depth.

I'm not crazy to argue Holtby's stats over the past two years. He has played really well. I just don't think he is elite in terms of raw talent.

That makes him expendable only at the right price, especially if a #1D comes back in the deal. Otherwise, I'm convinced the Caps are better off with Holtby than without him, that's for sure.

 

[twabby]

You're not truly reflecting on what's best for the organization if you've already concluded this off-season's top priority remains doing all it takes to win next season. They're still all-in all the time, in part because they think that's what fans want to hear but it's also best for the bottom line. I don't think they believe they could sell a rebuild even if they wanted to do it. And so it's never contemplated.

Perhaps Carlson is retained beyond next year but I doubt he's traded this off-season in order to become younger or more viable long-term. I highly doubt they make any moves in that direction until much more than playoff disappointment happens. It will take regular season dysfunction and the market drying up for more significant change to happen. It will have to be an unavoidable conclusion. It's just a damn blog post but it's also the person that will most heavily shape every single significant move this organization makes. I still don't believe he's any fundamentally different than Snyder. It's less egregious but he's still a problem. He's already set the agenda.

They're married to this core, in part because they believe the fanbase unconditionally loves them. It's the result of their marketing, which also boxes them into avoiding the contemplation of difficult decisions. They are indeed a fine organization. They spend and consistently have been positioned to compete. They just aren't great and excellence is as elusive as ever. It's not just a matter of improving practices in what went wrong this season. It's also a matter of figuring out how to do more with less and that's a particularly difficult dynamic compared to the past two seasons. Development has to be at the forefront in increasing efficiency but particularly offensively they don't have the environment in place to truly develop their own Rust, Sheary and Guentzel. At some point you just have to conclude certain people are who they are and answers aren't to be found in post-mortems involving all of the same actors who have failed to come up with solutions for years.

Why do they need to rebuild and not be competitive next season? The margin between winning and losing is razor-thin and in large part came down to a poor goaltending performance from Holtby vs. a good one from Fleury. They have a very good 1/2 combination down the middle, a good top 3/4 on defense, and a goalie who is normally very reliable. I agree changes need to be made (Trotz probably should be fired and Carlson either needs to be re-signed or traded) but that doesn't mean you need to blow it up and start from scratch. Just because that happens to coincide with it making Ted more money doesn't mean it's not the best decision.

I'm just not seeing what more you would have wanted from Ted, especially over the past 3 seasons in particular. He's marketed and sold his stars because his stars have been excellent players and contributed a ton towards producing a winning team. It sucks that they haven't put it together all at once in the playoffs but I guess where you and I differ is that I accept that there is a lot of inherent randomness in hockey whereas you think there has to be a reason and someone to blame for everything. You need to position yourself as a contender as much as possible and the Capitals have done so.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I disagree with your first statement. I think the idea had merit at that time.

Holtby is a good goalie but it's pretty clear he's not elite when it comes to pure talent. I see him as a system guy, tbh.

I agree with you when it comes to Grubauer though. He played easier games than Holtby and got sheltered in a way. If he starts 40 games +, we'll see him as someone like Neuvirth. A stop-gap.

Holtby was playing awesome in the regular season and you feel that's the time it was a good idea? Floating it now is understandable. Floating it while he was playing his best and appeared bulletproof in the postseason was dumb. Just my opinion.

He won a vezina, has been a multi-year contender and may well win another in the next few seasons. He's easily "elite" by the rational definition. Nobody was more down on him in the Pens series than me, but he's one of the best in the NHL.

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

I thought McPhee failed miserably to put a better team/coach around a young OVI and Trotz has never gotten by the second round but:

McPhee/Boudreau/Ovi,

McPhee/Hunter/Ovi,

Mcphee/Oates/Ovi,

B-Mac/Trotz/Ovi,

“C†the problem ?

yeah, it's Beagle.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

There was some talk earlier on 980 about OV's leadership skills and how he could use someone to take that role from him. Not necessarily taking the "C" from him, but finding someone like a Fedorov back in '09.

I've said before OV should lose the C in favor of someone who is more traditionally suited for that role. This year a Vet like Williams has spoken up in the "room", and there are other examples of adding a Vet (Arnott) for experience, but is there someone who can be added to fill this role on a more significant/permanent basis?

A Vet in his prime, not necessarily a star, to wear an "A" and take a vocal lead in the "room", and some weight off OV's shoulders, in the hopes it changes the culture with this team.