Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[RandyHolt]

I might just be imagining it cause things are going well lately but are you noticing Orlov and Schmidt both(and Carlson before injury) are activating like crazy and jumping into the rush? 88 and 9 especially have been all over the ice lately. I hope that's a sign of things to come in the playoffs man.

We are a different team. It's not just your imagination. We have scored 49 goals in 10 games. It's not the odd blowout. The scoring run we were on had not been seen in close to 25 years. This includes Bruce and Ovi in their prime taking the league storm.

There will be times up big in the playoffs where Barry will once again turtle. I get it. And it will be in our wheelhouse. But I sure hope he tries to attain huge leads first.

It is so refreshing watching our players aggressively trying to score a 6th goal up 5 in the last minute of games. Barry has clearly been holding back his players offensively, for defense. It's never been more obvious.

Not anymore. I hope he doesn't panic and reign the boys back in. And BMac should have inked Kuz at a basement price before Barry flipped the O switch.

 

[OV Rocks]

We are a different team. It's not just your imagination. We have scored 49 goals in 10 games. It's not the odd blowout. The scoring run we were on had not been seen in close to 25 years. This includes Bruce and Ovi in their prime taking the league storm.

There will be times up big in the playoffs where Barry will once again turtle. I get it. And it will be in our wheelhouse. But I sure hope he tries to attain huge leads first.

It is so refreshing watching our players aggressively trying to score a 6th goal up 5 in the last minute of games. Barry has clearly been holding back his players offensively, for defense. It's never been more obvious.

Not anymore. I hope he doesn't panic and reign the boys back in. And BMac should have inked Kuz at a basement price before Barry flipped the O switch.

I wonder if it is as much Barry letting them play as much as it is they found that killer instinct they have needed for years. Instead of sitting back on a 3-1 lead they want to get to 4, 5, 6 which isn't something they did in the past. Can't remember ever seeing such a quick strike offense either. The Caps can regularly put up 3 goals in a hurry. I just hope it is the norm and something that can transition into the playoffs not just part of the streak

 

[RandyHolt]

I wonder if it is as much Barry letting them play as much as it is they found that killer instinct they have needed for years. Instead of sitting back on a 3-1 lead they want to get to 4, 5, 6 which isn't something they did in the past. Can't remember ever seeing such a quick strike offense either. The Caps can regularly put up 3 goals in a hurry. I just hope it is the norm and something that can transition into the playoffs not just part of the streak

Guys that are scoring goals, don't seem to be our normal killer instinct candidates, which of course is usually Ovi energizing the team and leading our way to glory.... usually via PPGs. That is what makes this run stand out to me. Even strength scoring. We have been living too long off the PPGs and ironically in the end think it has hurt our team at ES.

I suspect killer instinct is the players showing Barry yes we love being unleashed. They all look motivated to score. Let's face it, points = money. Players may embrace defense, but everyone loves to score. Look at their face after they score a goal, vs block a shot.

The grinders, guys like Schmidt, even Willy is getting good scoring chances, Winnik looks like freaking bearded Wayne Gretzky lately, Eller awoke, Connolly after stops in TB and Boston suddenly says he is on his best line ever. Williams is pumping in the goals. Kuz looks like his old self after a 1 year vanishing act....

Not sure what my point is other than.... Barry has unleashed the fury.

 

[BobRouse]

I think our style has changed a tad but I think it has more to do with confidence of players and them willing to be more assertive.

This past 10-15 goal scoring surge is as much an aberration as the last 3 games vs Flyers and the series against the Pens.

Sometimes you get hot (Rangers at the beginning of the year, Cbus PP at the beginning) and everything you shoot seems to go in.

Other times you just can't catch a break.

At the beginning of the year we were definitely a bit sleepy but we didn't get much in the way of puck luck and that was capped off by being shut out by the Isles and losing to the Devs in a shootout despite having 44 shots on goal.

 

[g00n]

Without getting too off topic, oshie wife posted a few videos of him at the hospital for their daughter. Hopefully she feels better soon

Get well, little Oshie

 

[txpd]

Seems to me that the goal scoring is a direct result of what Trotz has been saying in pressers for much of the season. They needed to pay the price and get to the net.

Kuzy scored a goal the other night after hitting Alzner with his original shot. Alzner was standing at the top of the crease in front of the goalie. Alzner was standing in front of the goalie. Orlov scored the other night with Eller standing in front of the goalie. Last night standing in the same spot Eller scored a rebound. On and on.

The confidence comes from finding this is working.

It might be that the team has reached evolution that the defense is more involved. Alzner in front of the net as an example. But its my read that this run of play they are having now is the evolution of the season long game plan all along.

 

[g00n]

The style has definitely changed. They aren't playing the same way and you won't hear Trotz or any of the players talking about it because it would be helping the opposition. They're going to stick to cliche answers and they should.

Trotz has always been a d-first coach and if you saw any defenseman leaving his post at the point it was probably Orlov and even then he rarely went too far below the dots. Now he and Schmidt are both activating whenever there's an opportunity to do so, and even guys like Alzner are going to the net!

Remember this is a coach who countered team speed previously by trying to pin the opposing defensemen with a forecheck while instructing his defensemen and any high forwards to default to dropping back rather than even challenging a puck (make sure nobody gets behind you). Now he's trusting the team as a 5 man unit to rotate and weave enough to have the high forwards cover the point if necessary, and the second defensemen to pay close attention to what the other d-man is doing.

Dallas showed a little of the physical and dirty play that can knock a team off this game a bit, especially if you don't get the PPs. So did the Pens and someone else I'm forgetting. But the Caps still managed to score, if not win. The other way to try and counter their style is to play as much of a zone as possible so you don't chase the weaving players right out of position, and you don't have to worry about switching off or fighting through crowds, but even this has to break down eventually.

 

[txpd]

There is clearly a new 5 man cycle/weave being used to swings the forward up and the dman down and has opened up the cycle. I could also see last night that Orlov seemed to final grasp that as a defenseman he shouldn't be both skating deeper in the attacking zone and passing the puck. That change makes what they are doing far less dangerous.

There is no way to know the genesis of these things. Its just my read that this has been the game plan. To work in this direction progressively thru the season.

I watched much of the game on the Devils broadcast. Ken Danayko said that he talked to Trotz(former junior hockey teammates) and that Trotz had said that the team is being paced more this season and that their plan to incrementally grow the way they play and spread the minutes differently was working.

Maybe I am reading that all wrong and maybe Trotz concluded that he had to change sometime after Thanksgiving.

 

[bur and 666 others]

Just wanted to chip in to the conversation about our recent scoring prowess. imho, it's been because we have been extremely lucky, i wouldn't read into it too much. the same can be said when we are unlucky. stretches like these happen, they aren't an indication of anything. you just live through them: grit your teeth and keep your head up when you are unlucky; and don't let easy wins into your head when you are lucky.

 

[twabby]

I don't think it's a stretch to say there were some systemic changes and that they have been effective. But we should also pump the brakes a bit because their current pace is clearly unsustainable (~110 PDO over the past 10 games) and there are certainly flaws creeping into their game (second worst score-adjusted shot-attempt team in the league over the past 5 games). I'd rather they not get all of the breaks sooner rather than later so that the staff and players can react appropriately and further optimize the system and lineup decisions.

 

[hockeykicker]

If it really matters, Stephenson was sent back to Hershey

 

[bur and 666 others]

Also imho, they should use this opportunity (when scoring is easy and they are extremely lucky) to polish their defensive game. i know everyone will hate that, but we won't do well in the playoffs by allowing so many good scoring chances. once weak teams like devils are gone, kuznetsov and co won't be able to walk through an entire team and score without even shooting the puck.

 

[BobRouse]

Also imho, they should use this opportunity (when scoring is easy and they are extremely lucky) to polish their defensive game. i know everyone will hate that, but we won't do well in the playoffs by allowing so many good scoring chances. once weak teams like devils are gone, kuznetsov and co won't be able to walk through an entire team and score without even shooting the puck.

It would help a lot to have Carlson back! We only really struggled since he went down

 

[troyerlaw]

Here's a case where, to me, the analytics match the eyeball test. Ovie's line giving up ton of opponent scoring chances lately. And, just to bring in a second common thread of discord on this board, the solution might be ... 88

http://www.russianmachineneverbreak...echkins-defense-is-getting-worse/#more-123100

 

[g00n]

There is no way this much scoring over this long a period is all luck.

 

[twabby]

It's not all luck. But it's not all not luck either.

 

[RandyHolt]

Gone from this offense are all the out of gas poor angle shots that come after a minute of cycling, lets call it corsipadding. Salvaging their shift. I will bet the farm a team trying to score aggressively at the beginning of shifts vs at the end of shifts, are far more successful.

Our priorities upon entry have changed, including who is leading the rush. Schmidt a great skater, weak on the boards... he is a 4th forward and looking great. I am just bummed we waited this long to use him to his strengths... better late than never. I always say, these smallish offensive PMD types, have to have direct hands in chances/goals to offset their less than stellar Dzone play, to be net positive.

Maybe Barry learned offense at worlds. Or, more likely took that Pens loss to heart and realized a Jennings quality D first team plus the playoffs best goalie plus the playoffs greatest power play, were simply not enough in the modern era.

 

[BobRouse]

It's not all luck. But it's not all not luck either.

I agree with this.

There is definitely some more aggressiveness by the D no doubt.

But lets face it we are shooting lights out right now. Lots of snipe in our game. It is just not going to last forever.

What sucks is that since after Hunter Hockey we have out Corsi'd every playoff opponent in the respective series yet still found ourselves on the short end of the stick more often than not.

It would be nice to get some bounces and snipe in April

 

[RandyHolt]

We have been outcorsi'd?

Does the famous line, if we keep shooting, one eventually has to go in, ring a bell? I contend in a game spanning rarely more than 60 minutes, no, it does not.

I think a coach preaching that, causes corsipadding. Code for players taking shots for the sake of taking shots, on a prayer that the goalie lets in a softie. It makes his own players, play differently; and stop believing in themselves. Telling your stars to not bother with their top offensive tricks. Worst off, it helps put and keep opposition goalies in the zone. It's like practice to them.

 

[BobRouse]

We have been outcorsi'd?

Does the famous line, if we keep shooting, one eventually has to go in, ring a bell? I contend in a game spanning rarely more than 60 minutes, no, it does not.

I think a coach preaching that, causes corsipadding. Code for players taking shots for the sake of taking shots, on a prayer that the goalie lets in a softie. It makes his own players, play differently; and stop believing in themselves. Telling your stars to not bother with their top offensive tricks. Worst off, it helps put and keep opposition goalies in the zone. It's like practice to them.

Or you can look at it the other way...

It makes players focus on shooting instead of getting too cute.

Its infuriating when a team gets multiple odd man breaks and tries to make a cute pass that gets cut off for example.

You'd further like your point men to fire a shot on net, find a way to get it thru, as opposed to dumping it down low for random cycling.

We've gotten beat several times with the "chuck it to the net and see what happens" game. (Tampa in 2011 for instance)

The Kings won Stanley Cups employing this. There maybe something to it I think

 

[trick9]

Relentless and effective forecheck > more goals.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think Tampa in 2011 was just throwing pucks at the net when we weren't expecting them. And it was long before they were desperate to score.

Once a team is desperate to score, the goalie is already in the zone. To then start throwing garbage, I think the goose is cooked.

 

[Hivemind]

Tampa's game did involve a lot of "throwing pucks at the net," but that was the result of their transition play. They weren't throwing them at the net once they got set up, but rather they kept getting repeated rushes down the wing as the result of their superior neutral zone play, and the winger would get clean shots at the net or throw them into a high traffic area and hope for the best. Boudreau had no answer for their on-again, off-again forecheck.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The style has definitely changed. They aren't playing the same way and you won't hear Trotz or any of the players talking about it because it would be helping the opposition. They're going to stick to cliche answers and they should.

Trotz has always been a d-first coach and if you saw any defenseman leaving his post at the point it was probably Orlov and even then he rarely went too far below the dots. Now he and Schmidt are both activating whenever there's an opportunity to do so, and even guys like Alzner are going to the net!

Remember this is a coach who countered team speed previously by trying to pin the opposing defensemen with a forecheck while instructing his defensemen and any high forwards to default to dropping back rather than even challenging a puck (make sure nobody gets behind you). Now he's trusting the team as a 5 man unit to rotate and weave enough to have the high forwards cover the point if necessary, and the second defensemen to pay close attention to what the other d-man is doing.

Dallas showed a little of the physical and dirty play that can knock a team off this game a bit, especially if you don't get the PPs. So did the Pens and someone else I'm forgetting. But the Caps still managed to score, if not win. The other way to try and counter their style is to play as much of a zone as possible so you don't chase the weaving players right out of position, and you don't have to worry about switching off or fighting through crowds, but even this has to break down eventually.

Gotta give Trotz props for changing. He did, and it's worked. He was very candid about how lucky he was to be with all that coaching acumen at the World Cup. He admittedly picked some brains. And he knew he had to pay heed.

He has. It's worked. Good for him.

 

[Corby78]

It's not all luck. But it's not all not luck either.

Isnt that hockey? While a crazy bounce here and there can decide a game, a lot of that is utilized by being in the right place. Goalie does not see the puck but saved it because of positioning. Ellar scored on a lucky rebound because he was in the right place. Ovie scored on a fumbled play because he was pressuring the defense. A lot of your luck and unluckiness is made by your actions