A Comprehensive Review of the Kyle Dubas Era

[MilkofthePoppy]

Glaring Errors:

* Not rallying around Nazem Kadri and making him the scapegoat for three bitter playoff losses. Subsequently trading Kadri for ultimately irrelevant players in Kerfoot and Barrie.

* Nic Foligno Trade - A complete and utter disaster. The other forgotten piece - Noesen would go on to have a productive year in Carolina.

* The handling of the Marleau Contract. Under no circumstances should he have been traded with a First Round Pick. The goal here was to retain Kapanen and Johnsson, both of whom were ultimately dealt a year later.

* The signing of the Mrazek contract. Abysmal. The jettisoning of that contract was also downright atrocious.

* The handling of the Nylander contract. Should have been forced to sit the year. Would have sent a clear message the team comes first.

* The Murray contract - Almost as inexcusable as the Tukka Rask trade. When even the majority of the fanbase has it right, you definitely need new management.

* Not addressing organizational depth - The Jake Muzzin deal had an initial positive impact; however, his current injury status makes the trade a loss. No question, Durzi, Grundstrom, and Moore would be valuable members of our current depth. The loss of Hyman of also not additionally addressed.

* Promoting Keefe without considering potential alternatives. I don't blame Keefe as virulently as many of you, I think he has some positive qualities; however, he is often his own worst enemy. He may find success elsewhere.

* Increasing organizational bloat while wanting to 'streamline' the decision making processes. There are many figureheads in the organization that serve no function. Trim the fat.

* John Tavares Contract - Hard to blame him for it, but a more restrained and experienced GM probably would have avoided this. Everybody was clamoring for it, and even though Tavares has put up good numbers, and even scored the goal to get us to the next round this year, perhaps it is best if alternate options are explored.

* Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews Deals - Created false expectations that could not be met. Both players should have been bridged (like Mackinnon) and signed to monster deals after at least 1 championship run.

* Completely overthinking the expansion draft and losing McCann. This player would have added tremendous depth to our top 6.

Some Positives:

* Found sporadic quality goaltending in Jack Campbell - Ultimately the right decision to let go of Campbell

* Found a quality 1B in Samsonov - Fantastic year, needs to continue to work on his game (specifically his positioning and lateral movement) - Has proven to be mentally tough (rebounds well, especially after soft Game 5 goal against Tampa)

* Drafted and developed Joseph Woll - Have high hopes for this kid. His positioning reminds me of Belfour (my favorite Leafs goalie)

* Drafted Knies - Huge credit for this, kid is a stud. Hopefully he realizes why Florida deliberately targeted him this year and comes back stronger and angrier next year.

* Signing of Kampf - Hardworking and low maintenance fourth liner. Played with a lot of heart and developed good chemistry with a host of linemates (ranging from Engvall to Lafferty).

* Trading for Luke Schenn - I was a nonbeliever but Schenn has improved his game immensely. Strong, steady, and displayed some solid leadership, especially when absorbing those horrendous Tampa chirps.

* Signing of Bunting - Finding a youngish player that can provide 50 points is a coup.

* Acquiring McCabe - Thought he was a solid physical presence when focused. Felt he was less effective in the Florida series.

Undecided/Question Marks:

* Trading of Rasmus Sandin - Trading our young defenseman never has a habit of coming back to bite us in the rear... I thought this guy was solid. Good positioning, physical when needed, and high puck IQ. We certainly missed his breakout passing in the playoffs.

* Acquiring Lafferty - Showed some sporadic potential, felt his deployment could be better. Could use his speed on the penalty kill like Chicago did.

* Gustaffson - Didn't this guy play consistently for Montreal in the 2021 playoffs? Why was he not used instead of Giordano and Holl?


Did I miss anything?

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[Donnie740]

Not signing Corey Perry - - a proven champion and the type of aggressive player you need in the playoffs - - when Perry badly wanted to sign with Toronto for a minimum salary deal.

 

[Donnie740]

Giving away a young homegrown power forward in Mason Marchment to acquire an undersized no-talent puss in Denny Malgin.

 

[Puckstuff]

The first 2 years were horrendous, the middle year was ok, the last 2 years were very good. O'Reilly, McCabe, Schenn, Acciari was a historic deadline imho.

 

[Jmo89]

Not firing Keefe after the Montreal series.

He probably also cost the team the division the year he went with Sparks as back up.

 

[TheRumble]

Woll was a Hunter draft pick.

Dubas and Hunter co-ran the 2015 draft.

Hunter ran the 2016 and 2017 draft on his own. As much as I hate those two drafts, Woll and Liljegren are Hunter's picks so we have to give credit to Hunter for that. That being said, we had 18 picks in two drafts and only four players of significance were produced: Matthews, Woll, Liljegren and Grundstrum who was a piece in the Muzzin trade.

Dubas handled the development of all prospects from 2014 onwards though. People don't give him enough credit for the Marlies becoming a development factory.

NHLers with 100 games played produced by the Marlies between 2005-2014: Jiri Tilusty, Korbinian Holzer, James Reimer, Josh Leivo, Nazem Kadri, Gregg McKegg, Sam Carrick

Same list but with Dubas: Connor Brown, Andreas Johnsson, Pierre Engvall, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Trevor Moore, Mason Marchement, Carl Grundstrum, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Carrick, Zach Hyman, William Nylander, Justin Holl.

I'm willing to bet actual money that at least two of these guys end up on this list in the near future as well: Joseph Woll, Matt Knies, Nick Abruzzse, Topi Niemala,

 

[centipede2233]

The first 2 years were horrendous, the middle year was ok, the last 2 years were very good. O'Reilly, McCabe, Schenn, Acciari was a historic deadline imho.

It was a good deadline, but I wonder how much of it was influenced by shanahan. I’m not sure those deadline acquisitions happen with a dubas full autonomy. But even if crediting dubas for the deadline moves, they are good grit and experience but the problem was that because the top players (Matthews, marner, taveras, nylander, Reilly and Brodie) bring zero grit, O’Reilly,McCabe, Schenn and Accari were asked to do too much, especially McCabe and Schenn. These deadline moves didn’t correct the main problem, adding grit or in Burke’s terminology, “truculenc” to the core. Like a Tom Wilson, or Brayden Schenn, or tarasenko,. If you look at past cup winners they had some sort of grit and resiliency. Stamkos , kucherov and point are not huge heavy players, but they are all highly skilled guys who have an element of grittiness. Toronto does not have that, something they desperately need. Adding grit at the trade deadline is great but in Toronto’s case, it was like putting lipstick on a pig, it’s still a pig.

 

[Puckstuff]

Not firing Keefe after the Montreal series.

He probably also cost the team the division the year he went with Sparks as back up.

This needs more attention imo. His biggest downfall was Keefe.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I am going to pick apart the OP's criticisms a little bit.

* Not rallying around Nazem Kadri and making him the scapegoat for three bitter playoff losses. Subsequently trading Kadri for ultimately irrelevant players in Kerfoot and Barrie.

Kadri did it to himself. He was selfish and stupid, and couldn't keep his emotions in check. He did the same thing in his first year in Colorado too. Suspended for 8 games in the playoffs. Cost his team and let them down more than they ever let him down.

Returning Kerfoot + Barrie was the peak of his value before his contract year, even if you do not ultimately agree with the pieces in the end.

* Nic Foligno Trade - A complete and utter disaster. The other forgotten piece - Noesen would go on to have a productive year in Carolina.

Worst move of his tenure. Can really chalk up any move for "grit" and "intangibles" as somewhat of a negative, except for Schenn/Acciari in the end, even though some (like the Ritchie signing) was actually not a terrible bet. Ironically, Dubas' greatest detractors almost unanimously loved this move because it was exactly what they wanted... And meanwhile, it turns out to be the worst move he's made.

* The handling of the Marleau Contract. Under no circumstances should he have been traded with a First Round Pick. The goal here was to retain Kapanen and Johnsson, both of whom were ultimately dealt a year later.

Clearly a no-win move for him left behind by Lou. The Leafs are supposed to dump quality depth (which was a separate issue according to this list), for far less than they are worth mind you because teams know we would have had no choice, in the middle of a window because of a 6.25 million dollar, 39-year old anchor who couldn't even keep up in the bottom 6 anymore? A 1st round pick was the price, because of how poorly the contract was structured in terms of bonuses and trade protection. If we could have done it for a 2nd, we would have. It wasn't available.

* The signing of the Mrazek contract. Abysmal. The jettisoning of that contract was also downright atrocious.

Bad luck more than anything. Suffers 3 groin injuries after not having groin injuries in the past. Never got his footing. Ultimately moved off for the equivalency of a 2nd round pick at most. Crap happens and ultimately Mrazek received a contract that was comparable to what he was as a tandem goalie in a weaker goalie market.

* The handling of the Nylander contract. Should have been forced to sit the year. Would have sent a clear message the team comes first.

Once again, guaranteed there would have been plenty of haters just waiting to jump on his ass for this one. Also don't think it would send the message you would think it send... It effectively would have meant Nylander was gone, and Nylander would have been gone for far less than he is worth. Considering that contract has turned into an absolute steal... That would have been a far worse outcome.

* The Murray contract - Almost as inexcusable as the Tukka Rask trade. When even the majority of the fanbase has it right, you definitely need new management.

He was excellent in the first half, we got an asset out of him, and then he ultimately got hurt and fell off, which I guess is not a huge surprise. What is the worst case scenario here? We have to pay the same amount as we got for taking him in the first place just to dump him again? And meanwhile the upside was immense, the alternatives were worse, and he still provided good value for us at the beginning of the season. Seems like a major overreaction.

* Not addressing organizational depth - The Jake Muzzin deal had an initial positive impact; however, his current injury status makes the trade a loss. No question, Durzi, Grundstrom, and Moore would be valuable members of our current depth. The loss of Hyman of also not additionally addressed.

Hyman was addressed with Bunting. Bunting was just as effective in the regular season, and just as useless in the playoffs. Good for Hyman for having some early success in EDM, but that contract is only going to get worse with time and it is damn well good that we avoided it.

As for organizational depth... Hasn't really been a huge reason we have lost. Sure, maybe it could have been the difference maker in some series that we ultimately lost. But our depth has also come up big at various points in the playoffs. Maybe they didn't light the roof on fire, and even had some rough moments at times, but if everyone else showed up as much as they generally did (goaltending especially, and the core at various key points), we are probably in a Cup Final or two by now.

* Promoting Keefe without considering potential alternatives. I don't blame Keefe as virulently as many of you, I think he has some positive qualities; however, he is often his own worst enemy. He may find success elsewhere.

Which potential alternatives should they have looked at? Keefe was hired to be Babcock's eventual replacement, if he was not poached earlier (and there were rumblings that would have happened had we not made him HC). Just happened a few years earlier than they likely expected.

I think Keefe has made mistakes, but so has every coach he's apparently been "outcoached" by in the series we've played against. The main difference is his goaltending always got outplayed, and his core was often far more bipolar and fans were left blaming him for not doing something about it (when, I think after 7 years and 2 coaches with much of the same issues, it may be time to start looking at what those players need to do better themselves).

If he is let go, I find it hard to believe he lasts very long on the market. Unless someone like Quenneville becomes available, or there is a surprise firing like Sullivan, he immediately becomes the best experienced coach available on the market... better than Gallant - who is massively overrated as a coach, Laviolette, and Sutter.

* Increasing organizational bloat while wanting to 'streamline' the decision making processes. There are many figureheads in the organization that serve no function. Trim the fat.

Like who exactly? Honestly, Shanny may be the most "irrelevant" person in the organization since 2018.

The only "figurehead" moves Dubas made were giving Metcalf and Wickenheiser AGM titles when they were already Department Heads... And I would be shocked if their roles changed at all. Meanwhile, we actually let go of more people than we've brought in. Paliafito left. Vuori left. Gilman left. None of these guys were formally replaced by anyone. I think he maybe added some more pro scouts and a couple of video analysts, but we are talking about support staff who are at the very bottom of the decision-making hierarchy and are there for greater coverage; something a team like the Leafs, with a ton of resources and no formal limitations on how much we can invest, should be doing.

* John Tavares Contract - Hard to blame him for it, but a more restrained and experienced GM probably would have avoided this. Everybody was clamoring for it, and even though Tavares has put up good numbers, and even scored the goal to get us to the next round this year, perhaps it is best if alternate options are explored.

Will tell you right now that there would not be a single GM in their right mind who would have turned down the opportunity to add a franchise center for nothing but cap space... And if they did, they would be fired on the spot. What you are saying may be logical, but that "more restrained" GM doesn't exist. And experience? If anything, they would be even more for it. Experienced GMs love throwing their money around in UFA and it usually backfires. Same thing kind of happened with Dubas TBH, and it also backfired on him at times too.

* Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews Deals - Created false expectations that could not be met. Both players should have been bridged (like Mackinnon) and signed to monster deals after at least 1 championship run.

MacKinnon signed a 7 year deal post-ELC, and was in the Nylander-tier of player when he did sign that deal. Matthews and Marner were in a tier with very few historical comparables. Marner's closest was probably Kane. Matthews really only had to compare himself with McDavid and knowing that he was getting a fair bit better deal than Eichel.

If Matthews and Marner signed bridge deals, we are looking at an even worse situation than we are in right now. If you thought Marner was getting overpaid after one 90 point season, imagine how it looks with 2 or 3 more tacked on? And having to wait to get paid again. Whatever you think he is getting on his next deal, add at least 2 mill to that AAV and that is what it would have taken to get him signed... If he was nice.

* Completely overthinking the expansion draft and losing McCann. This player would have added tremendous depth to our top 6.

Really not much to overthink here at all. Holl was far more difficult to replace, and we brought in McCann for practically nothing to ensure we were not left without depth up front.

McCann is also very overrated. If Jarnkrok played the entire year in the top 6 (he was terrible for the first ~20 games of the year in the bottom 6 which bring his numbers down), he would have put up similar ES numbers as McCann for less than half the price and with more defensive value. McCann would still put up more overall points, because he is a focal point on PP1... Something that he never would be here and would plummet his value.

And both were equally useless in the playoffs. We had Bunting + Jarnkrok for 3 mill combined, and now we have Jarnkrok + Knies + potentially Robertson. Don't think it was a regrettable choice even if Holl is now a UFA.

Some Positives:

* Found sporadic quality goaltending in Jack Campbell - Ultimately the right decision to let go of Campbell

* Found a quality 1B in Samsonov - Fantastic year, needs to continue to work on his game (specifically his positioning and lateral movement) - Has proven to be mentally tough (rebounds well, especially after soft Game 5 goal against Tampa)

* Drafted and developed Joseph Woll - Have high hopes for this kid. His positioning reminds me of Belfour (my favorite Leafs goalie)

* Drafted Knies - Huge credit for this, kid is a stud. Hopefully he realizes why Florida deliberately targeted him this year and comes back stronger and angrier next year.

* Signing of Kampf - Hardworking and low maintenance fourth liner. Played with a lot of heart and developed good chemistry with a host of linemates (ranging from Engvall to Lafferty).

* Trading for Luke Schenn - I was a nonbeliever but Schenn has improved his game immensely. Strong, steady, and displayed some solid leadership, especially when absorbing those horrendous Tampa chirps.

* Signing of Bunting - Finding a youngish player that can provide 50 points is a coup.

* Acquiring McCabe - Thought he was a solid physical presence when focused. Felt he was less effective in the Florida series.

Undecided/Question Marks:

* Trading of Rasmus Sandin - Trading our young defenseman never has a habit of coming back to bite us in the rear... I thought this guy was solid. Good positioning, physical when needed, and high puck IQ. We certainly missed his breakout passing in the playoffs.

* Acquiring Lafferty - Showed some sporadic potential, felt his deployment could be better. Could use his speed on the penalty kill like Chicago did.

* Gustaffson - Didn't this guy play consistently for Montreal in the 2021 playoffs? Why was he not used instead of Giordano and Holl?

- I think the Leafs were not sold on Sandin's upside overall, and they are possibly sold on Niemela/Villeneuve/Timmins long term (even though they are RD). Offensively there was some potential, but he was never going to be PP1 with Rielly around and that was his main value. Defensively, he may have been a passable 2nd pairing guy but then there were worries about injuries and also with what happened with Dermott too (after he looked promising for a very long time). I think the return on him was fine enough, and I think we will be able to replace him, just like he ultimately replaced Dermott. Not sure Kral does it, because he did have a bit of a down year, and Kokkonen/Rifai are much further away and completely different types of defensemen, but I think Niemela/Villeneuve/Timmins (or even Liljegren) could take that 2PP role long term and it wouldn't be very hard to find a LD through UFA.

- He didn't draft Woll.

- Gustafsson is a pure offensive defenseman. He does not play the same role as those other guys. He was mostly insurance in case Rielly got hurt or we desperately needed another PP QB, in which case he came in as a 7th defenseman.

- McCabe was terrible in the playoffs. Both he and Giordano deserved just as much hatred and vitriol as Holl ultimately received. Brodie had his down moments too, but was at least better at other times and sadly was our 3rd best defenseman in the playoffs (which was not a good thing based on how he played). On the positive side, he did look better in the regular season and I would expect the entire defensive unit to pick up their play going forward.


I am not saying that there are not reasons to criticize Dubas, but I do think that they often get blown way out of proportion because of the overall results. And there certainly were far fewer "WTF were you thinking" moves vs. what most other GM's make (i.e. signing Marleau to that contract, signing Campbell to 5x5, etc.). I look at results too, but then I think that people would almost certainly say that Foligno was a great move had we won the Cup even if he continued to be useless (similar to Denis Savard when Tampa won the Cup)... When in reality, unless he did play better or contributed in some valuable way, it should still be seen as a bad move. Same applies if a move was good in theory but didn't work out as planned... Because if you sign a Vesey one time and it doesn't work out, then you do not want to be afraid of signing a Bunting the next time. Both were solid moves in theory, but one worked and the other did not.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This needs more attention imo. His biggest downfall was Keefe.

Long list of other things went wrong in that MTL series, and it looks really bad to fire a coach without even getting a full season behind the helm, especially when he did a lot more good than bad in both seasons.

If Keefe is fired in favour of a clear cut better candidate, then by all means. Not sure one exists out there right now, and I do not think coaching is what is holding this team back (plus I think we can go far with Keefe in charge), but I do not think anyone would be against it if that candidate did present itself. Although if it turns into another Dubas debacle, where we could very well be left with a worse option than we had (plus we actually have to fire Keefe, not just choose to not extend him)... Then Shanahan looks that much more incompetent.

And you certainly cannot fire another coach without there being some kind of core change. Can't let them off the hook with two coaches when, in the case of the Keefe at least, they are more to blame.

 

[Puckstuff]

Leafs could add Bertuzzi, Orlov and Monahan for close to the price of Tavares. Gives us way more balance and grit.

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Knies-O’Reilly-Nylander
Bertuzzi-Monahan-Jarnkrok
ZAR-Holmberg-Acciari

Rielly-Schenn
Orlov-Liljegren
McCabe-Brodie

Samsonov
Woll

 

[Jozay]

Started with Matthews, Nylander, Marner on ELC's, won one round in 5 years.

Thats all you need to know.

 

[KMNRB]

In short,

Positives: Process (at least, the talk about it, and the spending associated with it)

Negatives: Result (the lack of meaningful improvement, given the team already had regular season success, with 105 pts, before he took over the GM job from Lou)

 

[Notsince67]

Not signing McElhinney and bringing in Sharts

 

[Americanadian]

It actually bothers me how good Noesen is right now and he's signed for the upcoming season under league minimum.

 

[socko]

Someone posted the Dubas draft record the other day and I was shocked at how bad it was. He really won't be missed by me at all. But the disappointing thing is Shanahan is still here. So they missed their chance to really make a change. Bringing this same core back is just plain discouraging. And he wanted Dubas back too, just Dubas tried to squeeze more money out of them and I guess that soured things.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Dubas' legacy is a shitty bottom 6, shitty d core, and hail mary/cross your fingers goalie situation.

NEXT!

 

[IPS]

Really not much to overthink here at all. Holl was far more difficult to replace, and we brought in McCann for practically nothing to ensure we were not left without depth up front.

Luke Schenn came in dirt cheap this year and became a superior D to Holl right off the hop - Rielly played his best hockey of the season with Schenn at his side.

Holl was very easy to replace - management was just too stupid to see what he was as a player.

 

[FerrisRox]

* Gustaffson - Didn't this guy play consistently for Montreal in the 2021 playoffs? Why was he not used instead of Giordano and Holl?

Gustaffson suited up for 16-games, but he didn't play consistently at all. In half of those games, he logged less than ten minutes of ice.

He was helpful on the power play but was really bad without the puck. The guy is an absolute defensive liability and wouldn't have been an improvement over Holl and Giordano.

 

[MK78]

The first 2 years were horrendous, the middle year was ok, the last 2 years were very good. O'Reilly, McCabe, Schenn, Acciari was a historic deadline imho.

Well, it was his last ditch effort to keep his job, as prior deadlines have not been good.

And it worked, because he was offered a new contract, and had he not screwed the pooch, he'd still be the GM.

 

[Donnie740]

It actually bothers me how good Noesen is right now and he's signed for the upcoming season under league minimum.

Sure would be nice to have Noesen and Mason Marchment and their minimum salary contracts on the Leafs roster.

Thanks again for the mismanagement, Dubas.

 

[Americanadian]

Sure would be nice to have Noesen and Mason Marchment and their minimum salary contracts on the Leafs roster.

Thanks again for the mismanagement, Dubas.

Carolina signed Noesen as a UFA twice since he was acquired by the Leafs. It's not a Dubas issue - anyone could have signed him. It's more so an issue with Noesen turning a corner in his career the season after the Leafs acquired him.

 

[HandshakeLineRespect]

You forgot about the Garret Sparks fiasco. Trading Marchment. Losing Connor Brown.

 

[DuklaNation]

Dubas style could be described as patching up holes instead of just taking the time and cost to fix them properly.

 

[kevsh]

He was excellent in the first half, we got an asset out of him, and then he ultimately got hurt and fell off, which I guess is not a huge surprise. What is the worst case scenario here? We have to pay the same amount as we got for taking him in the first place just to dump him again? And meanwhile the upside was immense, the alternatives were worse, and he still provided good value for us at the beginning of the season. Seems like a major overreaction.

"Not a huge surprise" is a serious understatement! Pretty much goes for the rest of this puzzling attempt by you to spin the Murray trade as a net positive. I mean, seriously, you really stretched on this. "Good value at the beginning of the season". Yikes.

First, goaltending was a huge priority last off-season given Campbell was gone and there was literally no one else. So Dubas addressed it by bringing in what was clearly a broken down Murray and a cheap 1B who had very little playoff experience and a poor record in the few post-season games he had played.

And that predictably left the Leafs in a position where a completely untested rookie was going to have to back up their unproven 1B in the playoffs in arguably the toughest division in the league and facing opponents with goalies like Vasi and Ullmark.

True that there were no easy alternatives, and goaltenders can be notoriously inconsistent from season to season (or even in the same season, like Bob for instance), but Dubas apparently didn't even float moving one of the core or any other bold move to shore up the net - which everyone who watches hockey agrees is a number one/two priority.

Sadly Dubas took the same after-thought approach assembling a competitive bottom 6, at least until the trade deadline where he tries to band-aid a core toughness/compete/production problem with rentals.