A better ping pong ball draft system.

[Runforthecup]

The current system needs improvement. The problem is that the odds are based on predetermined odds which bear no relationship to how bad the teams might be. Tonight was a great example. Toronto and Edmonton were tied with the leafs playing first and behind on ROW. A loss would improve their odds of first overall by 6.5%, and of a top three by about 20%. Too large a differential to expect anything other than the eventual result. There is a better way.

Current System. Operated based on predetermined odds with the equivalent of 200 ping pong balls each representing a 0.5% chance of winning.

Better System. Why not give each non playoff team 2 balls plus a ball for each point they finished behind the 16th placed playoff team? Some years there would be more than 200 balls (2015) and some years there would be less (2016). In any case each team's chances would more accurately reflect how bad they were relative to the weakest playoff team and all other non playoff teams. Any given point differential would only mean about 0.5% The incentive to "tank" would be reduced sharply while still giving bad teams (depending on how bad they actually were) better odds. I call it the LEVOTS system.

 

[Bending and Tending]

The current system needs improvement. The problem is that the odds are based on predetermined odds which bear no relationship to how bad the teams might be. Tonight was a great example. Toronto and Edmonton were tied with the leafs playing first and behind on ROW. A loss would improve their odds of first overall by 6.5%, and of a top three by about 20%. Too large a differential to expect anything other than the eventual result. There is a better way.

Current System. Operated based on predetermined odds with the equivalent of 200 ping pong balls each representing a 0.5% chance of winning.

Better System. Why not give each non playoff team 2 balls plus a ball for each point they finished behind the 16th placed playoff team? Some years there would be more than 200 balls (2015) and some years there would be less (2016). In any case each team's chances would more accurately reflect how bad they were relative to the weakest playoff team and all other non playoff teams. Any given point differential would only mean about 0.5% The incentive to "tank" would be reduced sharply while still giving bad teams (depending on how bad they actually were) better odds. I call it the LEVOTS system.

They are based on point totals, so they most certainly reflect how good/bad teams are

 

[Noodletoro]

This board really needed a draft change proposal megathread about a year ago.

 

[LeafsLegendAkiBerg]

Oh look, it's the hourly "fix the lottery system we haven't even tried once yet" thread.

 

[AvroArrow]

I was suggesting something similar not too long ago. It makes no sense to me that two teams with the same amount of points have a 6.5% difference in their odds. Not a bad proposal. I would try and combine this idea with another one that was proposed recently which changed lottery odds based on previous years winners. It was something along the lines of, depending on how high you picked the previous year(s) you would have a certain amount of points added to your point total when determining the present years lottery winners.

I think that would be the most fair way to reduce the effects of tanking, stop the same teams from winning top picks, and keeping the odds fair for everyone.

 

[Runforthecup]

They are based on point totals, so they most certainly reflect how good/bad teams are

The current system is based on standings (including ROW, head to head etc.) and does not give any weight to the differential between the teams. The LEVOTS system attempts to quantify the differential so that a point or two in the standings doesn't make a huge difference in the odds. Lets eliminate tanking.

 

[AvroArrow]

Oh look, it's the hourly "fix the lottery system we haven't even tried once yet" thread.

Just because we haven't seen it used yet doesn't mean that it's not a very stupid lottery system. The system right now is terrible and doesn't address the real concerns around drafting, the draft lottery and tanking. We know the rules, the format and understand how the new lottery system works. We don't need to see it in action to determine whether or not it's stupid.

 

[CogNoman]

I don't know what the best way to deal out the balls is. All I know is I would actually like to *see* the lottery happen for once, ping-pong balls and all, instead of having the lottery take place in some secret hidden undocumented back-room from which some ultra-secret superspy covertly emerges under the dark of night and hands Bill Daly the results in a sealed envelope (you know, like how they usually run the lottery).

 

[PuckNorris]

Unless I misunderstood, wouldn't this increase tanking? It would literally mean, the more you lose, the better odds you get.

 

[Clamshells]

As much as I hate all the "fix the draft" threads, this is one that I've quietly thought needed to be done myself. Having the lottery odds being proportional to the points earned by the teams, instead of the literal rankings is a must, imo.

As an example, of how it would work, would look like:

[table=head]Team|Points|Modified Points|Lottery Percent
Boston|93|49|0.7
Carolina|86|196|3.0
Ottawa|85|225|3.4
New Jersey|84|256|3.9
Colorado|82|324|4.9
Montreal|82|324|4.9
Buffalo|81|361|5.5
Arizona|78|484|7.4
Calgary|77|529|8.1
Winnipeg|76|576|8.8
Columbus|76|576|8.8
Vancouver|73|729|11.1
Edmonton|69|961|14.7
Toronto|69|961|14.7[/table]

Where the formula to modify the points used here is (100 - Points Earned)^2, for no specific reason, other than it spreads the percentages nicely. Obviously there would be a lot of subjectiveness to what the formula should be, but whatever.

 

[tsanuri]

Just because we haven't seen it used yet doesn't mean that it's not a very stupid lottery system. The system right now is terrible and doesn't address the real concerns around drafting, the draft lottery and tanking. We know the rules, the format and understand how the new lottery system works. We don't need to see it in action to determine whether or not it's stupid.

I don't think many do. If they would research the NBA and their lottery system that has even better odds for the worst teams and lesser odds for the better teams. They would know that finishing last doesn't do much for you. So with the odds in the NHL I suspect over time it will be even more so than the NBA.
Worst team has won only 3X in 17 years. And 4X total since 1990 when they went to a weighted system.

 

[Runforthecup]

I was suggesting something similar not too long ago. It makes no sense to me that two teams with the same amount of points have a 6.5% difference in their odds. Not a bad proposal. I would try and combine this idea with another one that was proposed recently which changed lottery odds based on previous years winners. It was something along the lines of, depending on how high you picked the previous year(s) you would have a certain amount of points added to your point total when determining the present years lottery winners.

I think that would be the most fair way to reduce the effects of tanking, stop the same teams from winning top picks, and keeping the odds fair for everyone.

I like the idea of adding the idea of slightly altering the odds based on how you picked in the previous year(s). Will give thought to how you would quantify that.

It is important that you give fans of the non playoff teams who are not "gaming" the system hope.

 

[Penguinator]

I was suggesting something similar not too long ago. It makes no sense to me that two teams with the same amount of points have a 6.5% difference in their odds. Not a bad proposal. I would try and combine this idea with another one that was proposed recently which changed lottery odds based on previous years winners. It was something along the lines of, depending on how high you picked the previous year(s) you would have a certain amount of points added to your point total when determining the present years lottery winners.

I think that would be the most fair way to reduce the effects of tanking, stop the same teams from winning top picks, and keeping the odds fair for everyone.

Your ideas sure makes sense to me, however the # of balls increase is too steep, goes from 2 balls (...) to 3 & so forth so the incentive to tank is right there, you want more balls right?
AvroArrow's addition to CalgaryJetsFan's proposition is thus solid. Both are sound arguments to be considered, together.

 

[Mayor Bee]

[deleted]

 

[AvroArrow]

Idea for fairer draft lottery

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2051603

^ Name of the thread i was talking about earlier. I feel like a hybrid system using this idea proposed by CalgaryJetsFan along with the one proposed in the link above would be as close to perfect as we're gonna get.

 

[RealityBytes]

The current system needs improvement. The problem is that the odds are based on predetermined odds which bear no relationship to how bad the teams might be. Tonight was a great example. Toronto and Edmonton were tied with the leafs playing first and behind on ROW. A loss would improve their odds of first overall by 6.5%, and of a top three by about 20%. Too large a differential to expect anything other than the eventual result. There is a better way.

Current System. Operated based on predetermined odds with the equivalent of 200 ping pong balls each representing a 0.5% chance of winning.

Better System. Why not give each non playoff team 2 balls plus a ball for each point they finished behind the 16th placed playoff team? Some years there would be more than 200 balls (2015) and some years there would be less (2016). In any case each team's chances would more accurately reflect how bad they were relative to the weakest playoff team and all other non playoff teams. Any given point differential would only mean about 0.5% The incentive to "tank" would be reduced sharply while still giving bad teams (depending on how bad they actually were) better odds. I call it the LEVOTS system.

It's only your opinion that is a better system.

The owners decided the system to use and that's what is in place.

 

[CogNoman]

As much as I hate all the "fix the draft" threads, this is one that I've quietly thought needed to be done myself. Having the lottery odds being proportional to the points earned by the teams, instead of the literal rankings is a must, imo.

As an example, of how it would work, would look like:

[table=head]Team|Points|Modified Points|Lottery Percent
Boston|93|49|0.7
Carolina|86|196|3.0
Ottawa|85|225|3.4
New Jersey|84|256|3.9
Colorado|82|324|4.9
Montreal|82|324|4.9
Buffalo|81|361|5.5
Arizona|78|484|7.4
Calgary|77|529|8.1
Winnipeg|76|576|8.8
Columbus|76|576|8.8
Vancouver|73|729|11.1
Edmonton|69|961|14.7
Toronto|69|961|14.7[/table]

Where the formula to modify the points used here is (100 - Points Earned)^2, for no specific reason, other than it spreads the percentages nicely. Obviously there would be a lot of subjectiveness to what the formula should be, but whatever.

Minor problem with this is: Can you build an actual ping-pong ball machine that deals these odds? Or would you have to just run a computer simulation? Having a guy just click a button on a computer simulation is kind of boring.

Edit: Whoooops, I just realized this isn't actually a problem at all. You could just use the exact same ball system the NHL currently uses (the current system gives you 1000 possible combinations... so you could divide those combinations differently each year based on each team's odds).

 

[Nithoniniel]

In general, I think odds based on points rather than standings make sense. Not sure it would decrease tanking though. Wouldn't it mean that Toronto, for example, could have done a much worse tank job, ended up with fewer points, and had a better chance of Matthews?

I've toyed a bit with the idea of a draft system based on even chance for any pick for all non-playoff teams, but modified by the difference between placement in standings and draft position in previous years.

Advantages:

1) Gives no benefit of short-term tanking. What you do this year doesn't affect your lottery chances for that draft.
2) Any team outside the playoffs might end up with #1, but their chance of getting another high pick will be smaller in the upcoming years. Little chance for another Edmonton.
3) Balances out luck factor. If you are unlucky one year, in time you'll be compensated.
4) Still protects teams from being perpetual bottom feeders.

 

[RealityBytes]

I don't know what the best way to deal out the balls is. All I know is I would actually like to *see* the lottery happen for once, ping-pong balls and all, instead of having the lottery take place in some secret hidden undocumented back-room from which some ultra-secret superspy covertly emerges under the dark of night and hands Bill Daly the results in a sealed envelope (you know, like how they usually run the lottery).

It's a copy of the NBA system and it is fairly complex. The NBA has it behind closed doors (monitored by independent auditors) because they also think it will just confuse people. The NHL follows the same process its just that there are different distribution of the 1,000 combinations, e.g. the NBA has the lowest team with 250 combinations and the NHL has 200 combinations.

"To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. There are a total of 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before the trade) still determines eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.

Since 2005, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances
1.250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2.199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3.156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4.119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5.88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6.63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7.43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8.28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9.17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10.11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11.8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12.7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13.6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14.5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007 .982

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

The lottery is conducted with witnesses (from the accounting firm Ernst & Young) verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomise before having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals. NBA officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the one unassigned combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is determined. When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it can drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.

A simple explanation: 1000 different outcomes of an experiment exist and are equally likely to occur. A certain number of outcomes is assigned to each non-playoff NBA team. The largest number of outcomes is assigned to the team with the worst record. The team with the second worst record gets the second largest number of outcomes, and so on for each of the 14 teams in the lottery. The experiment is conducted, and the team to which the winning outcome was assigned receives the 1st pick in the NBA draft. The experiment is conducted again. If the winner is the same team that already won, the experiment is performed over again until there is a different winner. The winner of the second experiment receives the 2nd pick. The winner of the third experiment receives the 3rd pick. After the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks are determined, the 4th-14th picks are assigned to teams based on weakness of record.

In a case where a lottery team trades its pick to a playoff team, the playoff team assumes the lottery team's position in all draft lottery situations, unless provisioned by the conditions of the trade."

 

[Runforthecup]

Minor problem with this is: Can you build an actual ping-pong ball machine that deals these odds? Or would you have to just run a computer simulation? Having a guy just click a button on a computer simulation is kind of boring.

The system suggested at the start of this thread deals in actual ping pong balls (not percentages). In a year where there is great inequality (2015) there are more balls and bad teams (Buffalo last year) get more balls. In years like 2016 when the teams are closer to playoff levels and are more equal, there are fewer balls more equally distributed. In no cases do the balls vary so much that they can't be dealt with as the are currently.

 

[Runforthecup]

It's a copy of the NBA system and it is fairly complex. The NBA has it behind closed doors (monitored by independent auditors) because they also think it will just confuse people. The NHL follows the same process its just that distribution of the 1,000 combinations, e.g. the NBA has the lowest team with 250 combinations and the NHL has 200 combinations...

The video of the actual lottery drawing will be available on NHL.com after the reveal."[/I]

Getting back to the original suggestion. Given that there would only be 200 plus or minus balls, could not a draw be held on television much like 6/49 and others are held now. How transparent can you get?

 

[LeafsLegendAkiBerg]

I don't know what the best way to deal out the balls is. All I know is I would actually like to *see* the lottery happen for once, ping-pong balls and all, instead of having the lottery take place in some secret hidden undocumented back-room from which some ultra-secret superspy covertly emerges under the dark of night and hands Bill Daly the results in a sealed envelope (you know, like how they usually run the lottery).

It would be neat to see just for curiosity, but don't expect it to silence any of the conspiracy types.

 

[RealityBytes]

Getting back to the original suggestion. Given that there would only be 200 plus or minus balls, could not a draw be held on television much like 6/49 and others are held now. How transparent can you get?

Read post #19. The NHL lottery (like the NBA system) system in use only uses 14 ping pong balls.

As for changing the system as to what posters here think is better is not going to happen. It's the owners who decide on what lottery distribution to use and they will protect all of their franchises. One thing they don't want is weaker teams getting weaker and the lower ranked the team the better their odds will be.

The NHL (like the NBA) will probably show an after the fact televised version of the actual lottery draw once pick positions are determined and the ceremony for the pick positions is shown on TV. Maybe the day after. It is done that way so people do not become confused with the results as they are actually happening ... at least that's what David Stern said. Keep in mind that it just doesn't work like the 6/49. Four balls are drawn to make the 1 to 1,000 number that is used against pre determined reference sheets and it may have to be repeated if that number has been previously drawn.

The NBA uses external auditors Ernst & Young to do the procedure and there are usually representatives from each team and the league present who can look but not touch. The NHL used Bortz and company last year.

 

[tsanuri]

I don't know what the best way to deal out the balls is. All I know is I would actually like to *see* the lottery happen for once, ping-pong balls and all, instead of having the lottery take place in some secret hidden undocumented back-room from which some ultra-secret superspy covertly emerges under the dark of night and hands Bill Daly the results in a sealed envelope (you know, like how they usually run the lottery).

Considering they have released videos of the draw just not show it live it's not some deep dark secret. It's also witnessed by an accounting firm. Think there are also reps from each team in the room.
In the case of the NBA as has been mentioned there is a rep from each team in the room. And all those people are kept sequestered until after the revealing. Each team sends two people one to watch and one to be on stage for the revealing.

 

[Butch 19]

Oh look, it's the hourly "fix the lottery system we haven't even tried once yet" thread.

is it July already?