#87 Sidney Crosby Milestone Thread - History will be made (600 goals, 1600 points)

[orby]

In those 3 partial seasons you mentioned, his PPG was 1.61. Excluding those, his career pace is 1.24 PPG. That's why it is unrealistic to think he would have been able to keep up that pace. He's never done that over a full season.
He may still have achieved the PPG those seasons but without playing a full season, you just never know. Maybe he'd be more like the 4 year run from 2014-2018 where he averaged 1.10 PPG

That's very possible...but even if that were the case, and Crosby played out the remainder of those seasons scoring at a career-worst pace, he'd still have finished all 3 seasons well above a point per game. The whole point of the "per-game" stat is that it doesn't account for number of games played. So why should the games he missed disqualify him from a record for consecutive point-per-game seasons?

 

[Daeni10]

I think some guys are also misunderstanding arguments on purpose.

Obviously you can never be 100% sure with on pace and/or projected stats, but I think we can all agree that its within reason and in fact highly likely that Sid would have been above 1.00PPG in any of those years.

It's also completely within reason to project Ovi scoring 50 when he has 25 in his first 41 games because he has done it what feels like a million times.

It's not as likely to argue that any of them would have or will hit 150 points just because they are on pace for it unless they are actually close (like 60 games in).

Because one time you are assuming something would have happened what has happened a lot of times before and after that.
The other time there is simply no reason to think its likely because neither has done it.

 

[MadLuke]

My stat was from an older post, and I think I was counting seasons of more than 1 PPG.

Gretzky being at 17 instead of 18 should have been a clue.

Obviously you can never be 100% sure with on pace and/or projected stats, but I think we can all agree that its within reason and in fact highly likely that Sid would have been above 1.00PPG in any of those years.

It is so close to 100% certain that I am not sure that it much of even a conversation, for me it is more would he have played those added game, does the different mental/physical tool of those higher played game season make so that later on, on those close call season he miss ?

Like maybe Gretzky goes above 48 in 48 and reach a ppg during is very last season if he miss more time younger.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Ya, there's no chance Crosby would have kept up that pace during those shortened seasons. He has never come close to that pace in any of the years he played close to a full season. To believe he would have is wishful thinking.
Fact is, including Crosby in this unofficial record of consecutive PPG seasons is a stretch. 22 game "season" qualifies him?,...ya, okay.

120 in 79 gp
1.52 ppg.....

 

[Scandale du Jour]

In those 3 partial seasons you mentioned, his PPG was 1.61. Excluding those, his career pace is 1.24 PPG. That's why it is unrealistic to think he would have been able to keep up that pace. He's never done that over a full season.
He may still have achieved the PPG those seasons but without playing a full season, you just never know. Maybe he'd be more like the 4 year run from 2014-2018 where he averaged 1.10 PPG

Even if he scored at 1.10 PPG for the rest of those seasons, he would still easily have had more than 1 PPG. Like very easily.

Using career pace is also a little dumb here. Players of Sid's caliber usually have their scoring peak around 22-24. His performance in 2010-13 aligns with that (23-25 instead of 22-24, but close enough). His peak was an outlier, sure, but it is for all players.

I do not want to make it a Sid vs Ovy comparison, but look at AO's 3-year point scoring peak (which is age 22-24, btw):

2007-08: 82 GP, 112 points, 1.37 PPG
2008-09: 79 GP, 110 points, 1.39 PPG
2009-10: 72 GP, 109 points, 1.51 PPG
TOTAL: 233 GP, 331 points, 1.42 PPG

So, during his 3-year point scoring peak, he scored at 1.42 PPG. His career PPG is 1.11. His 3-year peak is 27.93% over his career average.

Let's look at Sid now.

2010-11: 41 GP, 66 points, 1.61
2011-12: 22 GP, 37 points, 1.68
2012-13: 36 GP, 56 points, 1.55
TOTAL: 99 GP, 159 points, 1.61

So, during his 3-year point scoring peak, he scored at 1.61 PPG. His career PPG is 1.27. His 3-year peak is 26.77% over his career average. That's remarkedly close to Ovechkin's deviation, isn't it?

Season before that peak in PPG, Crosby scored 109 in 81 (1.35). Season after, he scored 104 in 80 (1.30).

Based on the data, there is absolutely no reason to think he would have dipped under 1 PPG for any of the seasons in which he missed a lot of game. His deviation matches his closest peer. He had a very good pace the season before and the season after. His career LOW is 1.06 in a season in which he finished 3rd in scoring.

His career low is a 16.35% deviation from his career average. For comparison's sake, Ovechkin's lowest PPG season is 0.83 PPG which is a 25.23% deviation from his career average. So Crosby's worst year deviated less than his closest peer's worst season. Heck, if you want to argue that Sid is more consistent, while Ovechkin's deviation for his best and worst is more volatile and say that Crosby would probably have regressed to like 1.45 PPG (14.17% deviation from career average, which is more aligned with his deviation from average to worse)... he still VERY easily scores more than 1 PPG

If people were to argue that he would have broken 150 all these years, games missed and difficult to sustain pace would be good arguments. When it comes to consecutive PPG seasons? Nah, that's just arguing in bad faith.

 

[daver]

Very likely reaches Top 25 in career secondary assists by year's end!

 

[Video Nasty]

No, Lemieux would have been 2nd overall if he had been able to stay healthy.

Agreed.

If one is going to play the what if game, they can’t pick and choose when it’s convenient. Crosby with a little more health would likely need more than 1,922 points to sit in second place if Lemieux also had a little more health.

Mario missed 311 games through his first retirement. Playing just half of those games at simply a 1.5 ppg pace would give him about 1,727
points at retirement. If everything stayed the same post his 2000-2001 comeback, he would sit with about 1,955 points.

Other than the unrealistic premise of Mario playing an extra 150 games, those are extremely conservative numbers, almost disrespectful estimates, considering he was firmly averaging 2 ppg and above.

It’s much more likely a completely healthy Crosby would never even touch the point total of a half healthier Lemieux.

 

[Rengorlex]

The critcism of Crosby having some injuries to boost him here is ridiculous. Everyone else has had injuries, almost every all-time great has had injuries. Crosby is not special in this regard and has not had particularly more than others. The idea of injuries even making this easier for him or anyone else is suspicious at best and completely insane at worst.. The player that he surpassed in this regard was Mario Lemieux who had much more injuries and partial seasons than Crosby.

People just looking for ways to discredit this absurd accomplishment.

 

[authentic]

The critcism of Crosby having some injuries to boost him here is ridiculous. Everyone else has had injuries, almost every all-time great has had injuries. Crosby is not special in this regard and has not had particularly more than others. The idea of injuries even making this easier for him or anyone else is suspicious at best and completely insane at worst.. The player that he surpassed in this regard was Mario Lemieux who had much more injuries and partial seasons than Crosby.

People just looking for ways to discredit this absurd accomplishment.

He missed an especially large number of games in his peak seasons. It's not like it's a non factor compared to most elite players in league history, obviously Lemieux is a pretty big exception.

 

[wetcoast]

Ya, there's no chance Crosby would have kept up that pace during those shortened seasons. He has never come close to that pace in any of the years he played close to a full season. To believe he would have is wishful thinking.
Fact is, including Crosby in this unofficial record of consecutive PPG seasons is a stretch. 22 game "season" qualifies him?,...ya, okay.

How is it a stretch though?

The seasons before and after any season you pick he scored at a PPG or above, usually very easily.

He has been an impact player when he played for 17 straight seasons that's simply elite even among the elite.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

How is it a stretch though?

The seasons before and after any season you pick he scored at a PPG or above, usually very easily.

He has been an impact player when he played for 17 straight seasons that's simply elite even among the elite.

It's simply arguing in bad faith, it's best to not engage with them.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

Here's my obligatory 'i used to work at the arena and Sid caught me stealing a pop one time and didn't care and I was just like oh hey Sid like it was no big deal' story. Oddly enough a year later I got a job doing snow removal and one of our stops was Sid's house. I know his gate code!

Is it “8787”?

 

[crosby87]

I fully understand that you can't laud a player for hypotheticals, but I've always though this was a significant "what if..."

Over the course of his "injury seasons" (2010-13), Crosby missed a total of 113 games. When he did play in those seasons, he averaged 1.61 points per game. Assuming he continued to score at the same rate, Crosby would have had 182 more points than he does now if he had stayed healthy for the duration of those 3 seasons. Even allowing for some missed time and scoring inconsistency, I think it's reasonable to say Crosby missed out on 150+ points during his prime years.

Sid is closing in on 1400 career points, but if he hadn't missed so much of his prime, it's reasonable to assume he'd be closer to 1600 today, likely with at least 3 years left in his career. He will likely finish with close to (if nor more than) 1700 career points, but I think that if not for his injury woes, Sid would have had an outside shot at 2000.

Again, you can't give him credit for points he hypothetically scored...but it makes me wish we got to see more of prime Crosby.

Sadly it wasn't even just prime Crosby we missed but peak crosby. Crosby never really got to have a consistent stretch at his peak. On top of that it also probably lowered how good his peak actually would have been since he wasn't able to get that consistent stretch of play to keep on improving during it.

 

[daver]

Sadly it wasn't even just prime Crosby we missed but peak crosby. Crosby never really got to have a consistent stretch at his peak. On top of that it also probably lowered how good his peak actually would have been since he wasn't able to get that consistent stretch of play to keep on improving during it.

Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

Inspired by the Best 82 game stretch thread, this is Crosby's best stretch of hockey which took place between Nov. 28, 2009 (after shaking off his Cup hangover) to Nov. 8, 2014 (before a viral illness kicked in). NHL Stats Despite playing 42% less games than the scoring leader during this...

hfboards.mandatory.com

 

[Shrimper]

3 games from 1,100

3 points from 1,400

15 assists from 900

 

[kladorf2005]

3 games from 1,100

3 points from 1,400

15 assists from 900

Doing the math remaining on his current contract:

- 12 games + 3 years = 258 max games
- 1.27 career ppg = 328 "max" points

Let's say he plays a conservative 203 games at 1.0 ppg. That would put him at 1600 points in 1300 games played at the end of his contract. That would put him 10th in all time points, with Lemieux being the only player in front of him with fewer games played.

I could see him hanging up the skates if it plays out like that. Especially if the Pens are no longer contenders by then.

EDIT - Crosby is currently 23rd w/ Lemieux being the only player in front of him with fewer games played - you have to go all the way down to 40th to find the next guy with fewer games played than Crosby

 

[TooManyHumans]

Sadly it wasn't even just prime Crosby we missed but peak crosby. Crosby never really got to have a consistent stretch at his peak. On top of that it also probably lowered how good his peak actually would have been since he wasn't able to get that consistent stretch of play to keep on improving during it.

It would have been really nice if the NHL had protected its best player so he could have actually played more, but the NHL did not care to do that.

 

[MadLuke]

In those 3 partial seasons you mentioned, his PPG was 1.61. Excluding those, his career pace is 1.24 PPG. That's why it is unrealistic to think he would have been able to keep up that pace. He's never done that over a full season.
He may still have achieved the PPG those seasons but without playing a full season, you just never know. Maybe he'd be more like the 4 year run from 2014-2018 where he averaged 1.10 PPG

That is such a strange statement, that it feel like possibly boderline trolling. Specially using the old Crosby career part in is career PPG part, Crosby career ppg at the end of the 2012-2013 season was 1.415, before those 3 season it was 1.36

Outside the stopped short career (or league scoring going down during their peak by a lot), player ppg during their peak will tend to be head and shoulder above their career ppg, Joe Thornton is significantly below 1ppg in is career and he peaked at 1.466.

I doubt he would have achieved those exact ppg those seasons would he have played over 75 games in each (2012-2013 106.9 PDO is really high at least he does not have a +60 season, so is the 19.9% shooting percentage in 2010-2011, I doubt he put 60+ goals versus coming down to earth back to 17.x% while still winning the Richard like he did in 2016-2017), but 15% above is previous career average and doing 1.55 for those 3 years, very possible, is 2010-2011 pace was ridiculous and did look unsustainable on the stat sheet, but not on the eye test and it got even worst the next year it was even more unsustainable and he did again the next short season the year after the same ridiculous 14.1% on ice shooting percentage.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Guys I fully agree maybe he doesn't hit like 70 goals in a season or 140 points but come on.

The guy hasn't ever had a season below PPG yet.

It's a pretty safe bet that a player in his scoring peak would be scoring at enough of a rate.

This stat is ppg seasons and Crosby has managed to do that every season so far.

If you wanna argue he doesn't reach ridiculous numbers fine. But thats not what we are here for.

Great job by Crosby and really shows how great he is.

 

[Shrimper]

Doing the math remaining on his current contract:

- 12 games + 3 years = 258 max games
- 1.27 career ppg = 328 "max" points

Let's say he plays a conservative 203 games at 1.0 ppg. That would put him at 1600 points in 1300 games played at the end of his contract. That would put him 10th in all time points, with Lemieux being the only player in front of him with fewer games played.

I could see him hanging up the skates if it plays out like that. Especially if the Pens are no longer contenders by then.

EDIT - Crosby is currently 23rd w/ Lemieux being the only player in front of him with fewer games played - you have to go all the way down to 40th to find the next guy with fewer games played than Crosby

35 this year with 3 more years on his contract. He could hit 266 going by 1.00 PPG.

281 points in last 4 seasons at 1.20 PPG

Would be 295 points.

He'll be around 1520 points aged 37.

Mario had 1601 when he turned 37.

Not far off

 

[Calderon]

.....

Let's look at Sid now.

2010-11: 41 GP, 66 points, 1.61
2011-12: 22 GP, 37 points, 1.68
2012-13: 36 GP, 56 points, 1.55
TOTAL: 99 GP, 159 points, 1.61

So, during his 3-year point scoring peak, he scored at 1.61 PPG. His career PPG is 1.27.

I'm replying to a part of your post, as shown above. Let's take the the injury season with the lowest ppg for the sake of it being the easiest to attain over a full season. So Sid had 56 points or a 1.55 ppg in 36 games. How many players have had 56 or more points in 36 games in the 2000s? I don't know the answer but maybe someone reading this can obtain that info via scripts and other sizzling IT skillz. I'll bet the number is in dozens.

Now then, how many instances are there of a 1.55 ppg over a full season in the 2000s? Say what, 82 games is somewhat hard to come by, you are bound to miss a game or two due to flu, a funeral, birth of your kid or something like that. So lets lower the bar just a smidge and say 80 games minimum, let's call that a full season. 80 x 1.55 is 124 (points), 81 x 1.55 rounds up to 126 and 82 x 1.55 rounds down to 127. How many of such point totals are there in the 2000s? If I'm not mistaken, just one, Kucherov's 128 in 82, 2018-19. Virtually any top 20-30 level NHL forward is capable of hot stretches to the tune of 56 points in 36 games but sustaining it over more than twice as long is a very tall order.

Having said that, it is possible that Crosby was just at his peak during those years, a peak that would've been considerably higher than his prime before and after those years and we never got to see those 130+ point seasons he was cooking had he stayed healthy. We'll just never know.

 

[Bouboumaster]

This Crosby kid seems able to play that ice hockey thing well

 

[Mr Buckles]

I know his gate code!

Go on....

 

[andrjusha]

Will he get 1400 before OV?
Sid has 3pts to go, OV has 1pt.
Pens playing now, Caps tomorrow.
OV was first to 1300

 

[andrjusha]

Crosby was first to 1200