GDT: 7/3/2014 - Rangers @ Hurricanes. I'm not saying it was Aliens... But, it was Aliens

[Stickpucker]

I like Boudreau and his system leads to a LOT of regular season success. But that said his teams typically flounder in the playoffs because of the emphasis on defense. How much of that is the ineptitude of GMGM in Washington and how much of that is Boudreau is the question though.

The last two teams they'll want to be playing in the first round are Minnesota and Winnipeg, even having Pavs in net is the equivalent of having a drunken squirrel back there.

That's true. After the last few years having hope of making the playoffs would be nice, though.

 

[Mr Whipple]

I honestly think they need to hire a couple people for the front office and Billy Beane this mother ****er up. Bring in a capologist if they don't have one already, and bring in some advanced stats gurus.

If Muller doesn't use the team correctly, as he certainly didn't do last night, give him the Art Howe treatment.

The owner of SAS is a minority owner, and we only have to watch a bunch of their commercials every game. There's got to be somebody working right in the Raleigh area they could easily hire to pull this off.

 

[What the Faulk]

I honestly think they need to hire a couple people for the front office and Billy Beane this mother ****er up. Bring in a capologist if they don't have one already, and bring in some advanced stats gurus.

If Muller doesn't use the team correctly, as he certainly didn't do last night, give him the Art Howe treatment.

JR was on Adam and Joe the other day and mentioned analytics again when talking about Jordan. He said Jordan goes up against the other teams' best players "96%" of the time. I'm pretty sure he made that number up.

The weird zone starts are about the lack of synergy in line possibilities, not bad decisions.

Jordan's line deserved offensive zone starts.
Gerbe and Dwyer are arguably the two best defensive wingers.
Murphy's strength is bringing the puck up the ice, and opposing 4th lines usually start in offensive (our defensive) zone.

And at the end of the day, Canes finished up 1-0 in 5v5 play + penalty shot.

I actually think it takes Muller too long to get more creative with lines and roles, like he did tonight.

Special teams need to be burned with fire.

That's not how it works. If you give Jordan's line a ton of offensive zone starts, you're throwing Nash or Eric to the wolves in the neutral or defensive zone. And they drowned, again. Murphy/Harrison can't handle tough assignments, and it's not about "bringing the puck up the ice". It's about usage and protection, which they need.

Jordan is really the only one who can take defensive zone draws the way this team is right now. Malhotra can win them, but he's struggling in every other facet of the game. Everyone else needs to be protected.

NYR edged them 54-36 in 5v5 attempts, and that was after Khudobin's heroics and 3 no-goal calls. They attempted one shot total after Skinner's goal. They're lucky that this game was even close.

Nash's goal was even strength, by the way.

 

[DaveG]

The owner of SAS is a minority owner, and we only have to watch a bunch of their commercials every game. There's got to be somebody working right in the Raleigh area they could easily hire to pull this off.

Capologist isn't that difficult for someone with a pretty basic understanding of algebra, even I could do that pretty solidly frankly... especially if I was getting paid to do so.

It's the advanced stats stuff that's unique, and while I understand what the numbers mean I don't know how to effectively track that stuff on a game to game basis.

 

[Ole Gil]

JR was on Adam and Joe the other day and mentioned analytics again when talking about Jordan. He said Jordan goes up against the other teams' best players "96%" of the time. I'm pretty sure he made that number up.



That's not how it works. If you give Jordan's line a ton of offensive zone starts, you're throwing Nash or Eric to the wolves in the neutral or defensive zone. And they drowned, again. Murphy/Harrison can't handle tough assignments, and it's not about "bringing the puck up the ice". It's about usage and protection, which they need.

Jordan is really the only one who can take defensive zone draws the way this team is right now. Malhotra can win them, but he's struggling in every other facet of the game. Everyone else needs to be protected.

NYR edged them 54-36 in 5v5 attempts, and that was after Khudobin's heroics and 3 no-goal calls. They attempted one shot total after Skinner's goal. They're lucky that this game was even close.

Nash's goal was even strength, by the way.

I guess you can bang your head against the wall, and send out the same thing that's not working over and over, forever. If the team were riding a wave of success, sure, don't try something different. Not exactly the case.

Jordan playing 1C means he's going to get the ozone draws. He's being relied to score at even strength (and has). They've been, by far, the best line (I think). The consequence of that, is that Nash has to center Dwyer/Gerbe now instead of Jordan against St. Louis/Richards.

It's not throwing Nash to the wolves. It's just asking him to do more. All 3 guys on that line kill penalties. Gerbe/Dwyer have been in that role all year. Unfortunately, we only have one Jordan Staal. It'd be nice to stick him in both roles, but that's not an option. Either Nash is centering a scoring line, or a shutdown line. Either way, he's over his head. But I think of the two, he's more suited to the defensive play.

Also, I think the thing advanced stats misses, is that in situations like the Nash or Malholtra centering Gerbe/Dwyer against top lines, they are essentially playing like they have a 2+ goal lead. All defense, no offense, just keep G/60 down as much as possible. So I'd expect Corsi to be particularly bad, but SV% to be higher than normal.

The advanced stats folks recognize that when teams have a 2 goal lead, they play a different style that throws corsi and such out of whack as one team goes for it and the other sits back. What it doesn't seem to recognize, is that this style of play is employed at points during the game when the score is close.

The bigger, and more pertinent point, however, is that the team is struggling to score. Getting Jordan more involved in the offense is good for the team. It comes at the cost of asking more of someone in the bottom 6. Even if it fails in the big picture, it is good for next year to see what Jordan can do in a more pronounced offensive role.

And again, with Jay/Murphy, zone starts are important. But who they are matched up against is probably most important. You want them out against 3rd/4th lines. 3rd/4th lines get a lot of offensive zone starts. So Jay/Murph get defensive zone starts against weak competition. Which works out fairly well, as it could be argued Murphy is at his most effective on the rush.

I didn't pay attention to defense pairings playing with specific lines. That's the other caveat that comes into play. If you're looking to jumpstart Eric/Skinner, maybe you play them with Jay/Murphy coming out of the defensive zone to generate chances on the rush. It's been talked about a lot recently, how playing with Bellemore/Hainsey really hamstrings a lines ability to generate offense coming out of the zone. There's just so much more to think about than Zone starts, that reducing it to that and then acting incredulous is silly. Maybe in context, it was a huge mistake, but context wasn't given.

And while Nash's goal was even strength, I'm fairly sure it was 4v4. Last goal also even strength, but 6v5.

 

[Identity404]

The owner of SAS is a minority owner, and we only have to watch a bunch of their commercials every game. There's got to be somebody working right in the Raleigh area they could easily hire to pull this off.

AFAIK Dr. Goodnight doesn't have any ownership stake in the Hurricanes. I believe the Hurricanes are using SAS software, but only in a revenue optimization capacity, not for any advanced stats/on ice stuff.

The NHL did approach SAS recently to jazz up their website similar to what SAP did for http://stats.nba.com/, which would have been really cool, but it never materialized.

 

[Mr Whipple]

AFAIK Dr. Goodnight doesn't have any ownership stake in the Hurricanes. I believe the Hurricanes are using SAS software, but only in a revenue optimization capacity, not for any advanced stats/on ice stuff.

The NHL did approach SAS recently to jazz up their website similar to what SAP did for http://stats.nba.com/, which would have been really cool, but it never materialized.

Don't have any links, but I'm pretty sure it was mentioned that he was one of the local minority owners added. They never have really gone into details on that, so maybe it was just an assumption?

Still, the point being that it would be easier for the Canes to do this than any other when we've got a resource right here in our backyard. Just need for PK/JR to buck the hockey traditionalism and try something new. Which by itself is a major step.

Nice that they use it for revenue, but there's other uses they have as well.

Would be awesome for the Canes to be behind 'Moneypuck'.

 

[What the Faulk]

I guess you can bang your head against the wall, and send out the same thing that's not working over and over, forever. If the team were riding a wave of success, sure, don't try something different. Not exactly the case.

Jordan playing 1C means he's going to get the ozone draws. He's being relied to score at even strength (and has). They've been, by far, the best line (I think). The consequence of that, is that Nash has to center Dwyer/Gerbe now instead of Jordan against St. Louis/Richards.

There's also trying things just to try them, like putting Mike Komisarek on the powerplay earlier in the year. They don't work for a reason. Nash has been one of the most protected players (high ozone starts, easy competition) on the team all year for a reason. He's done well when protected, and drowned when not.

Jordan wasn't playing 1C. Eric got 2:00 more at even strength than he did. And even if he were, playing 1C doesn't gift you high offensive zone starts. You still have to play players to their strengths. Jordan is a good defensive center, and one of the few on the team. As tarheel explained awhile ago: "despite starting the majority of his shifts in his own zone against the other teams' top guys, he typically outshoots the other team when his shift is over." He doesn't need to be protected with offensive zone starts. Eric/Skinner/Lindholm do.

It's not throwing Nash to the wolves. It's just asking him to do more. All 3 guys on that line kill penalties. Gerbe/Dwyer have been in that role all year. Unfortunately, we only have one Jordan Staal. It'd be nice to stick him in both roles, but that's not an option. Either Nash is centering a scoring line, or a shutdown line. Either way, he's over his head. But I think of the two, he's more suited to the defensive play.

Forcing Nash into a role he's not capable of handling is on the coach. 60+ games into the season, he should know where he stands with Nash. Giving him tough assignments, regardless of the wingers, is just not a winning strategy.

But it's also on the makeup of the team. I'm intrigued by what Loktionov brings, but this team desperately needs another defensive center capable of handling tough assignments to take the pressure off Jordan. Nash isn't that guy, and Malhotra hasn't been that guy except for a few games early on. I don't know if anyone in Charlotte can be that guy.

Also, I think the thing advanced stats misses, is that in situations like the Nash or Malholtra centering Gerbe/Dwyer against top lines, they are essentially playing like they have a 2+ goal lead. All defense, no offense, just keep G/60 down as much as possible. So I'd expect Corsi to be particularly bad, but SV% to be higher than normal.

The advanced stats folks recognize that when teams have a 2 goal lead, they play a different style that throws corsi and such out of whack as one team goes for it and the other sits back. What it doesn't seem to recognize, is that this style of play is employed at points during the game when the score is close.

But that's not a winning strategy. When one team sits back, and the other team presses and presses and drives play, they eventually break through. Look at what happened in Anaheim:

From the moment the Ducks scored their 5th goal, they were outshot 44-17 the rest of the way. It's not a coincidence the Hurricanes scored 3 times. If you routinely send out unfavorable matchups and get pinned in your own zone, you're going to lose.

The bigger, and more pertinent point, however, is that the team is struggling to score. Getting Jordan more involved in the offense is good for the team. It comes at the cost of asking more of someone in the bottom 6. Even if it fails in the big picture, it is good for next year to see what Jordan can do in a more pronounced offensive role.

And again, with Jay/Murphy, zone starts are important. But who they are matched up against is probably most important. You want them out against 3rd/4th lines. 3rd/4th lines get a lot of offensive zone starts. So Jay/Murph get defensive zone starts against weak competition. Which works out fairly well, as it could be argued Murphy is at his most effective on the rush.

I didn't pay attention to defense pairings playing with specific lines. That's the other caveat that comes into play. If you're looking to jumpstart Eric/Skinner, maybe you play them with Jay/Murphy coming out of the defensive zone to generate chances on the rush. It's been talked about a lot recently, how playing with Bellemore/Hainsey really hamstrings a lines ability to generate offense coming out of the zone. There's just so much more to think about than Zone starts, that reducing it to that and then acting incredulous is silly. Maybe in context, it was a huge mistake, but context wasn't given.

And while Nash's goal was even strength, I'm fairly sure it was 4v4. Last goal also even strength, but 6v5.

I don't have a problem with getting Jordan more offensively involved. But it comes at the expense of getting others more defensively involved. You can't look at his line in a vacuum. They've done well offensively, I agree, but they're also capable defensively, and have posted by far the best corsi since being put together.

Harrison/Murphy did play most of their shifts with Eric and company, and it didn't work, to say the least. Harrison was on the ice for 15 scoring chances against and the team was outshot 25-10 with him out there. On the flip side, Hainsey/Bellemore were on the ice for almost 8 minutes with Jordan, and that was clearly the best line. All of this is at 5v5.

Muller used defensive guys in offensive situations, offensive guys in defensive situations, paired the weakest teammates together against the toughest matchups, gave the most minutes to offensive black holes (Dwyer was your ES TOI leader), and then blamed everything on execution. I've been a Muller supporter, but he's really not looked good lately.

 

[Ole Gil]

Nash's line has been getting easy minutes competition-wise. That's not the same as Nash specifically needing protection. It's somewhat obvious in context.

When he was on the 3rd line with Skinner, the goal of the line is to take advantage of having a top tier talent playing in the bottom 6 to abuse weaker matchups. By default, regardless of Riley Nash's defensive prowess, that line is going to get offensive zone matchups against weaker competition. Even when Skinner was bumped up, Nash was still playing with Bowman/Ruutu in the same role. Usually as a fairly talented (relatively) 4th line from an offensive standpoint.

What, I think, makes it clear that it wasn't about keeping Riley Nash away from good hockey players, is that Nash has been killing penalties for much of the season. Typically, when you're looking to shield someone from defensive responsibilities, you don't send them out to kill penalties very often.

So I see Dwyer/Nash/Gerbe, I see Nash in a role that more suits him than trying to make him a scoring line center. That's the #1, #5, #7 PK forwards. If you have to protect the guys you are using regularly on the PK, then you're screwed.

I think Nash is a little underskilled for both roles, but I think a defensive spot is a better fit for him than an offensive one.

 

[Ole Gil]

But that's not a winning strategy. When one team sits back...

It's not a team sitting back. It's Gerbe/Nash/Dwyer focusing on keeping their G/GA per 60 down against the other teams top line. It's practically a penalty kill.

The goal being that in doing so, Tlusty/11/Semin will be able to dominate from the stronger start position for a higher G/GA per 60.

You can, of course, play a more even game with Gerbe/Jordan/Dwyer, but that line has been doing it's job all year, and it hasn't been enough. It's not enough for Jordan to mostly break even on the score sheet.
--

A simpler way to look at it would be: You play to lose 1-0 or tie 0-0 when Gerbe/Nash/Dwyer are out there, and play to win 1-0 or 2-0 when Tlusty-Jordan-Semin are out there. Total it up, and it should be a win more often than not.

Unfortunately, there's Skinner/eStaal/Lindholm involved in this mess, which I think is where the whole thing falls apart.

Jeff Skinner's inability to mesh with anyone really has hampered the teams ability to create 4 good lines.

 

[What the Faulk]

I think, more than anything, this team lacks another center that can take pressure off Jordan, play the difficult minutes that Nash (IMO) is not capable of doing, and would go a long way into making this team so much tougher to play against. That's indictment number one against Rutherford. The hole at 3C has been a season-long epidemic, and after Nash's shooting percentage skyrocketed, he thought the issue was resolved. It wasn't.

They expected too much from Lindholm in year one on the basis of what he did in the SEL. Bleed called it, but I do think that Lindholm has turned a bit of a corner this year. He's over his head defensively, and struggles in the middle in general, but has looked solid on the right wing and on the PP, which has been another area of concern.

Imagine this team with a guy like Backlund. Automatically you have another guy to take defensive draws, play on the PK, and even contribute on the PP. It takes pressure off Jordan to play more of a two-way game, and continue playing the punishing role with Semin and Tlusty that has been one of the few success stories over the last several. It frees up Eric to play a strictly offensive game, and somewhat negates the disadvantage of being paired with Skinner and Lindholm. Malhotra would even be able to play a bit more of a 4th line role rather than being one of the most heavily used defensive forwards in the league. As a whole, the team becomes stronger.

As it stands, there are precious few options other than Jordan to play a true defensive role. Rather than forcing players into situations that are over their heads, they would be better from top to bottom.

I like what Loktionov is capable of, but he's not the 3C this team needs.