GDT: #54 ⋅ ANA @ LAK ⋅ 7:30 PM PST

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That's the first time in a long time, I remember us getting outplayed 5 on 5 and being the better team on special teams.

This felt like a playoff game with little space and hard work. Think if the Kings HAD NOT played 3 games in 4 night. How much worse it have been.

Gudas would have been great for a game like this, but our faceoff and possession metrics (like very related) were god awful. We had a hard time to keeping the puck for many extended periods where as the kings had the puck the entire 3rd period. Feels like we were getting outworked not and necessarily had anything to do with strategy.

My point is that moving the coach now is going to instantly achieve results. Verbeek should have fired him in December, but that ship is sailed.
To be fair on faceoffs ….

Kopitar / Danault / Lewis are all 51% or higher.

Also I know kings played 3 out of 4, but we also are the worse team and have a bug going thru our locker room. Not giving excuses, just added context.
 
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Many have pointed out where this team would be if not for stellar goaltending. While that’s true and I don’t dispute that, in previous years they still wouldn’t be good enough to win games with it, much less be at .500. Goalies are a part of the team just like forwards and D, and if anything I look at it as this team being a player or two away from taking a big big step forward when other areas of the team begin to be shored up.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be a “how bad would they be without these goalies” and it could be a “how good could they be if they can add and compliment these goalies?”

When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change.

I also, admittedly, have to give Cronin credit right now. I’ve been in hockey locker rooms before albeit at a far lower level than the NHL. If your coaches message isn’t resonating and you have no respect for him, you aren’t winning 6 out of 7 games. It just won’t happen. Doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way but I don’t think this has been a stretch where they’re winning in spite of Cronin, regardless of what the idiots on Crash the Pond podcast think
Fire Cronin
 
I was forced to watch third period from Kings broadcast, Fox is so annoying.

With a decent special teams.. this team could have easily been 10 to 12 ahead in the standings... They lost so many games early because of horrible special teams..
That would be even worse mirage.

Team is literally carried by best goalie tandem in the league.
 
This is the same as Eakins pre-Verbeek. They’re a bad team being propped up by goaltending. Verbeek divested the team of NHL caliber top 4 defensemen for a couple years, and now he has a couple back. The last 30 days we are still bad as far as the SAT/USAT.

The team has talent. The guy running it isn’t using that talent well.
Don’t take this as a pro Cronin post, more pro Verbeek.

If you are working out and want to do a clean and jerk, but have never down a clean, and get thrown out there to do weight outside your ability. You will get hurt and you will fail.

In algebra if you miss the first half of the year you can’t catch up in the second half because the first half lays the foundation for the more complex problems later down the road.

Compete level and work ethic are traits that don’t really have underlining stats. We can be concerned about our younger talent not taking huge strides or regressing. But I think we are laying that foundation of being a hard working competitive team. And when Verbeek and co feel the kids are physically ready to handle more responsibilities, we will start to get Leo / Cutter on the PK. Leo’s TOI went from 18:07 last year to 15:56 this year. His goal pace is slightly off from last year but he’s on pace for 17 assists per 82, down from 25 last year. And that’s with 3 apples the last 3 games.

Some of that is Cronin / some of that is Leo / Zegras over McGinn / Isac / Leason also may help that too.

We are close to our lineup being (not counting if we go big game hunting this offseason)

Cutter / Leo / Sennecke
Zegras / mct / terry
Vats / Strome / Killorn
? / Gaucher / Colangelo

A new coach and system will do wonders when Verbeek feels like a proper foundation has been built: At least that’s how it looks to me.
 
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I hadn't heard anything. Lot of shit in my personal/work life right now. Haven't been paying much attention to hockey lately.
I hear you. This year a been absolutely, all around crappy for me too. I've been distancing myself because I don't want or need the added negative stress I create for myself, but I do read some of the GDTs because of the posters here and watch a game here and there. I hope things get sorted out for you.
 
Don’t take this as a pro Cronin post, more pro Verbeek.

If you are working out and want to do a clean and jerk, but have never down a clean, and get thrown out there to do weight outside your ability. You will get hurt and you will fail.

In algebra if you miss the first half of the year you can’t catch up in the second half because the first half lays the foundation for the more complex problems later down the road.

Compete level and work ethic are traits that don’t really have underlining stats. We can be concerned about our younger talent not taking huge strides or regressing. But I think we are laying that foundation of being a hard working competitive team. And when Verbeek and co feel the kids are physically ready to handle more responsibilities, we will start to get Leo / Cutter on the PK. Leo’s TOI went from 18:07 last year to 15:56 this year. His goal pace is slightly off from last year but he’s on pace for 17 assists per 82, down from 25 last year. And that’s with 3 apples the last 3 games.

Some of that is Cronin / some of that is Leo / Zegras over McGinn / Isac / Leason also may help that too.

We are close to our lineup being (not counting if we go big game hunting this offseason)

Cutter / Leo / Sennecke
Zegras / mct / terry
Vats / Strome / Killorn
? / Gaucher / Colangelo

A new coach and system will do wonders when Verbeek feels like a proper foundation has been built: At least that’s how it looks to me.
Imo most shots against in the league and least goals for in the league is enough evidence for me that Cronin isn’t teaching them the proper way to win. The system isn’t winning them most games, the goalies are. Yes they’re part of the team, but the players’ learning how to win can’t be to largely rely on them every night.
Fair enough on effort—and I do feel like there is some good along with the bad which the next coach can untangle— but still i’d rather their effort be used efficiently and with habits that translate to winning regardless of what their goalie is doing.
 
We are leaving this open for the whole 2 week break, right?


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Meh, I guess the rationale for last night is that we were the way better team during the Black Friday game and got goalied and a couple bad breaks to lose. We were owed one and Dostal nearly carried us to a shutout.
 
Imo most shots against in the league and least goals for in the league is enough evidence for me that Cronin isn’t teaching them the proper way to win. The system isn’t winning them most games, the goalies are. Yes they’re part of the team, but the players’ learning how to win can’t be to largely rely on them every night.
Fair enough on effort—and I do feel like there is some good along with the bad which the next coach can untangle— but still i’d rather their effort be used efficiently and with habits that translate to winning regardless of what their goalie is doing.
You’re not wrong on the sustainability of winning. I tend to think, based on what Verbeek and co have said about individual development being what they are focusing on currently, that they are teaching habits that translate to winning, just 20 year old Leo trying to win board battles versus 24 year old Leo is probably going to be very different.

Like our defensive system does win in the NHL, the question becomes is our personnel too young to succeed in the system and we are teaching traits and habits that when they physically mature will turn us into a Hurricanes type of machine ? Or is our personnel incapable of playing our systems and Verbeek is seeing who can play his system and who can’t before shipping kids out. Does Verbeek mind a total system change or does he only want to build a team that can play one way ?

I just don’t know many teams that ice 3-4 (5 if you count Luneau) defensive players 23 and younger whose defensive numbers aren’t near the bottom of the league. With our players starting this year as 20/20/20/23/23.

Then I don’t know many teams with 4 players in their top 6-9 who are 23 and younger too, with our guys starting the season 19/20/21/23, who aren’t at the bottom of the stats either.

Now we should question systems / regression / all those things, I just don’t think we need to be super worried about those things….. yet.

We are winning ugly in the league, something you have to do to be a good team, hopefully when the kids are ready and the bubble wrap is taken off, they will physically be able to dominate for years. Time will tell.
 
90% of the time our forwards skate the puck into the offensive zone they have no f***ing clue what to do with it. The go-to move is to stop, turn around, and give it up to the opposing team.

It is so abundantly clear that our coach has no clue what he's doing when it comes to an offensive system.

I am thrilled that Dostal and Gibson look terrific but I almost wish they would drop down to league average, because Verbeek is really threatening to derail some careers if he doesn't make a change behind the bench.
 
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You’re not wrong on the sustainability of winning. I tend to think, based on what Verbeek and co have said about individual development being what they are focusing on currently, that they are teaching habits that translate to winning, just 20 year old Leo trying to win board battles versus 24 year old Leo is probably going to be very different.

Like our defensive system does win in the NHL, the question becomes is our personnel too young to succeed in the system and we are teaching traits and habits that when they physically mature will turn us into a Hurricanes type of machine ? Or is our personnel incapable of playing our systems and Verbeek is seeing who can play his system and who can’t before shipping kids out. Does Verbeek mind a total system change or does he only want to build a team that can play one way ?

I just don’t know many teams that ice 3-4 (5 if you count Luneau) defensive players 23 and younger whose defensive numbers aren’t near the bottom of the league. With our players starting this year as 20/20/20/23/23.

Then I don’t know many teams with 4 players in their top 6-9 who are 23 and younger too, with our guys starting the season 19/20/21/23, who aren’t at the bottom of the stats either.

Now we should question systems / regression / all those things, I just don’t think we need to be super worried about those things….. yet.

We are winning ugly in the league, something you have to do to be a good team, hopefully when the kids are ready and the bubble wrap is taken off, they will physically be able to dominate for years. Time will tell.
I agree with some of this and can get behind your logic and the questions you're posing to a degree, as well as understand that winning ugly is a good tool to have, but we wouldn't even be having a discussion about them winning at all without top-tier goaltending.
We'd be in complete doom-and-gloom mode, having a collective panic attack. We'd be losing our shit that this far into our rebuild, the Sharks and Hawks are within striking distance of us and have a similar goal differential while having more goals than us ON TOP of the regression and stunted offensive development concerns. The only reason we can have these conversations with a more positive spin is because the goalies have stolen us at least 10 points. Otherwise any positivity would be a far-reach.

But I'm happy that they are in a position to play meaningful games and that the goalies are allowing them to be in highly competitive situations. There is a ton of parity in the league, so we could still end up a bubble team or a bottom-5 team and I'm cheering for them to make some individual breakthroughs and pushing past the cluster above us in the standings.
 
Many have pointed out where this team would be if not for stellar goaltending. While that’s true and I don’t dispute that, in previous years they still wouldn’t be good enough to win games with it, much less be at .500. Goalies are a part of the team just like forwards and D, and if anything I look at it as this team being a player or two away from taking a big big step forward when other areas of the team begin to be shored up.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be a “how bad would they be without these goalies” and it could be a “how good could they be if they can add and compliment these goalies?”

When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change.

I also, admittedly, have to give Cronin credit right now. I’ve been in hockey locker rooms before albeit at a far lower level than the NHL. If your coaches message isn’t resonating and you have no respect for him, you aren’t winning 6 out of 7 games. It just won’t happen. Doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way but I don’t think this has been a stretch where they’re winning in spite of Cronin, regardless of what the idiots on Crash the Pond podcast think
Your scope is this season alone. You forget Cronin was here last year. And we have Eakins the season before with a worse roster that Verbeek compiled. Cronin has had a difficult time trying to produce offense for the past two seasons despite having more talent all around. And because Cronin doesn't know how to adapt to generate more points, his first season was a failure to only generate one more point than Eakins, despite Eakins having a shitty roster given to him.

This season, we are projected to notch four more goals than the previous season. Verbeek has been adding to the roster in a positive way since Cronin became coach. Scoring goals is independent of our goalies and we have a two year running scheme that isn't working.

at 5v5 (Per Natural Stat Trick)
2023-24 GF: 127 (30th in the league)
2024-25 GF: 95 (28th in the league)

1739136422872.png




Now, let's look at our netminders between last year and this year.

1739136422891.png


Goalie, GSA and GSAx (2023-24).png
Goalie, GSA and GSAx (2024-25) Feb 9.png


If our goalies cannot carry us, then this season would end up being like last season. And if Verbeek is going to trade away Gibson, then we lose a top-10 goalie to playing over 25 games or more for a weaker netminder.


Bad Defense ===

At 5v5
2023-24 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 769 (26th in the league)
2024-25 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 575 (worst in the league)

That should explain it all.


Conclusion

When your 5v5 offense and defense are both bottom dwellers, adding to the periphery is not going to carry the team if the goalies stumble or revert to last year's standards nor if the team trades Gibby for a far inferior product.
 

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I agree with some of this and can get behind your logic and the questions you're posing to a degree, as well as understand that winning ugly is a good tool to have, but we wouldn't even be having a discussion about them winning at all without top-tier goaltending.
We'd be in complete doom-and-gloom mode, having a collective panic attack. We'd be losing our shit that this far into our rebuild, the Sharks and Hawks are within striking distance of us and have a similar goal differential while having more goals than us ON TOP of the regression and stunted offensive development concerns. The only reason we can have these conversations with a more positive spin is because the goalies have stolen us at least 10 points. Otherwise any positivity would be a far-reach.

But I'm happy that they are in a position to play meaningful games and that the goalies are allowing them to be in highly competitive situations. There is a ton of parity in the league, so we could still end up a bubble team or a bottom-5 team and I'm cheering for them to make some individual breakthroughs and pushing past the cluster above us in the standings.
And I understand goaltending is stealing games for us. But I do pose a question, that really I don’t know if there is an answer.

How is it that John Gibson is having his best season in 6 years. Did he magically suck for those years ? Did he stop caring the second half of the year getting bombarded by 40 shots a night ? Did he break down because of overuse on bad teams ?

I wonder if our defense is giving up more shots and XGA and all that, but what about tip goals and rebound goals, are teams scoring more or less goals off those in front of our crease ? I think Trouba has probably helped our net front defensively. Is that part of how we want to play, or is it just a happy accident ? Is it even true ? How often during the mid / high danger shots is it a breakaway or is our goalie screened vs unscreened. What are the % ebbs and flows for high danger shots with a screen vs without ?

This is obviously a long winded way of me saying I have questions when it comes to these stats. It doesn’t mean the stats are wrong, or if any of what I said has any effect on goal percentage and wins and such. But I have questions, and don’t really know how to get those answers. But I think these questions are important to gather more context of whether it’s all purely saved by elite goaltending, or whether we are putting goalies in better positions to be elite, shot totals be damned you know ?
 
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You’re not wrong on the sustainability of winning. I tend to think, based on what Verbeek and co have said about individual development being what they are focusing on currently, that they are teaching habits that translate to winning, just 20 year old Leo trying to win board battles versus 24 year old Leo is probably going to be very different.

Like our defensive system does win in the NHL, the question becomes is our personnel too young to succeed in the system and we are teaching traits and habits that when they physically mature will turn us into a Hurricanes type of machine ? Or is our personnel incapable of playing our systems and Verbeek is seeing who can play his system and who can’t before shipping kids out. Does Verbeek mind a total system change or does he only want to build a team that can play one way ?

I just don’t know many teams that ice 3-4 (5 if you count Luneau) defensive players 23 and younger whose defensive numbers aren’t near the bottom of the league. With our players starting this year as 20/20/20/23/23.

Then I don’t know many teams with 4 players in their top 6-9 who are 23 and younger too, with our guys starting the season 19/20/21/23, who aren’t at the bottom of the stats either.

Now we should question systems / regression / all those things, I just don’t think we need to be super worried about those things….. yet.

We are winning ugly in the league, something you have to do to be a good team, hopefully when the kids are ready and the bubble wrap is taken off, they will physically be able to dominate for years. Time will tell.

Does our defensive system win? All the metrics show we aren't great playing defense for the past two seasons. Two factors are helping the Ducks in GA: great goaltending and fewer penalties taken.

Zegras and Drysdale's official rookie seasons had them boast great offensive numbers while their defensive play was low. In Zegras' second season, we had no blueline, but Zegras' offensive game wasn't affected. For the past two seasons, Zegras' offensive production has been muted significantly. We are literally coaching the offense out of our youth offensive forwards.

If we're giving up so many HDCA for the past two seasons, why not try to cultivate an offensive measure since our goalies are standing on their heads this season.

At 5v5​
2023-24 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 769 (26th in the league)​
2024-25 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 575 (worst in the league)​

We aren't winning ugly. Our goalies are winning ugly consistently this season. And our head coach stated he cannot sacrifice any more defense to produce offense.
 
Does our defensive system win? All the metrics show we aren't great playing defense for the past two seasons. Two factors are helping the Ducks in GA: great goaltending and fewer penalties taken.

Zegras and Drysdale's official rookie seasons had them boast great offensive numbers while their defensive play was low. In Zegras' second season, we had no blueline, but Zegras' offensive game wasn't affected. For the past two seasons, Zegras' offensive production has been muted significantly. We are literally coaching the offense out of our youth offensive forwards.

If we're giving up so many HDCA for the past two seasons, why not try to cultivate an offensive measure since our goalies are standing on their heads this season.

At 5v5​
2023-24 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 769 (26th in the league)​
2024-25 High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA): 575 (worst in the league)​

We aren't winning ugly. Our goalies are winning ugly consistently this season. And our head coach stated he cannot sacrifice any more defense to produce offense.
Yes and I have questions on high danger shots / mid danger shots. Are high danger shots we are allowing on the lower tier of goal % locations ? Are the screened vs unscreened and what is the goal % difference between those two factors.

My question is on paper we have a much better defense than years prior. Are we putting our goalies in better positions to put up elite numbers, or are we a dumpster fire only getting bailed out by otherworldly goaltending.

We spend way to much time in our own zone, so shots against are obviously not going to be good. But while hemmed in our zone, are we structured better to allow weaker attempts high danger / mid danger areas ?

I don’t know the answer to this and I don’t know how to find all that information out. But I have questions.
 
Don’t take this as a pro Cronin post, more pro Verbeek.

If you are working out and want to do a clean and jerk, but have never down a clean, and get thrown out there to do weight outside your ability. You will get hurt and you will fail.

In algebra if you miss the first half of the year you can’t catch up in the second half because the first half lays the foundation for the more complex problems later down the road.

Compete level and work ethic are traits that don’t really have underlining stats. We can be concerned about our younger talent not taking huge strides or regressing. But I think we are laying that foundation of being a hard working competitive team. And when Verbeek and co feel the kids are physically ready to handle more responsibilities, we will start to get Leo / Cutter on the PK. Leo’s TOI went from 18:07 last year to 15:56 this year. His goal pace is slightly off from last year but he’s on pace for 17 assists per 82, down from 25 last year. And that’s with 3 apples the last 3 games.

Some of that is Cronin / some of that is Leo / Zegras over McGinn / Isac / Leason also may help that too.

We are close to our lineup being (not counting if we go big game hunting this offseason)

Cutter / Leo / Sennecke
Zegras / mct / terry
Vats / Strome / Killorn
? / Gaucher / Colangelo

A new coach and system will do wonders when Verbeek feels like a proper foundation has been built: At least that’s how it looks to me.
That first line is 3+ years away from being a 1st line. That 3rd line will be 2/3 gone at that point. The 2nd line, which is actually by far the top line right now, cannot stay healthy. Colangelo isn’t a 4th line player, and I’m far from convinced that Gaucher is an NHL player at all at this point.

It is generally considered a safe assumption that a new system takes 20 games minimum for the players to figure it out. If Verbeek thinks these guys are going to be grinders, he needs to be trading them for the grinders he wants, because that ain’t them. At which point the season ticket base goes away. If it’s a new system, no time like the present, before we waste another year.

The last month of our “success” has taken us from 30th in SAT/USAT to 25/26th. That’s still a bad team. In reference to your math and weightlifting analogies, if you’re 1-1/2 years into your algebra class and you’re still in the bottom 6th of your class, you need to just give it up and move to the social sciences.
 
And I understand goaltending is stealing games for us. But I do pose a question, that really I don’t know if there is an answer.

How is it that John Gibson is having his best season in 6 years. Did he magically suck for those years ? Did he stop caring the second half of the year getting bombarded by 40 shots a night ? Did he break down because of overuse on bad teams ?

I wonder if our defense is giving up more shots and XGA and all that, but what about tip goals and rebound goals, are teams scoring more or less goals off those in front of our crease ? I think Trouba has probably helped our net front defensively. Is that part of how we want to play, or is it just a happy accident ? Is it even true ? How often during the mid / high danger shots is it a breakaway or is our goalie screened vs unscreened. What are the % ebbs and flows for high danger shots with a screen vs without ?

This is obviously a long winded way of me saying I have questions when it comes to these stats. It doesn’t mean the stats are wrong, or if any of what I said has any effect on goal percentage and wins and such. But I have questions, and don’t really know how to get those answers. But I think these questions are important to gather more context of whether it’s all purely saved by elite goaltending, or whether we are putting goalies in better positions to be elite, shot totals be damned you know ?
Those are great questions for sure which I don't have a statistically verified answer lined up for. Just from eye test I do think we have more solid defensive games structurally (at times) and are harder to play against physically this year with more understanding than last year of Cronin, which is a positive that the next coach can build on while improving on everything else including possession which is the best defense.

But there have been a ton of games where it is passive bend-but-don't-break defense to legitimately terrible, shellshocked defensive breakdowns covered up by goalie vs the world and an opportunistic goal or two out of thin air where we have 0 business not being blown out in those games. I see enough of our goalies making huge saves that have nothing to do with defense to justify my opinion that we'd be at the very least 10 points down without them, which they deserve pretty much all of the credit for. If Dostal isn't a demigod early in the season we are already climbing up an insurmountable mountain.
 
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That first line is 3+ years away from being a 1st line. That 3rd line will be 2/3 gone at that point. The 2nd line, which is actually by far the top line right now, cannot stay healthy. Colangelo isn’t a 4th line player, and I’m far from convinced that Gaucher is an NHL player at all at this point.

It is generally considered a safe assumption that a new system takes 20 games minimum for the players to figure it out. If Verbeek thinks these guys are going to be grinders, he needs to be trading them for the grinders he wants, because that ain’t them. At which point the season ticket base goes away. If it’s a new system, no time like the present, before we waste another year.

The last month of our “success” has taken us from 30th in SAT/USAT to 25/26th. That’s still a bad team. In reference to your math and weightlifting analogies, if you’re 1-1/2 years into your algebra class and you’re still in the bottom 6th of your class, you need to just give it up and move to the social sciences.
I admittedly am high on Gaucher because every draft thing said he was a guaranteed NHL 3rd / 4th liner, who would be a number PK guy. Was he worth a late first instead of Brad Lambert ? A conversation I’m willing to have, as I was jumping for joy thinking Lambert fell to us.

I think going from 30th to 26th is good, especially if over the next 25+ games we can improve maybe to low 20’s. Then start off next year there and continually improve. Gradual improvement is a positive, even if it didn’t happen quick enough / or the jump isn’t as high as we’d like.

The social sciences thing made me spit out my drink laughing. f*** off hahaha. But do most teams with 9-10 players 23 and younger usually have underlining stats that are middle of the pack or top 10 ? Or do they usually have poor underlining numbers as they physically mature ?
 
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Those are great questions for sure which I don't have a statistically verified answer lined up for. Just from eye test I do think we have more solid defensive games structurally (at times) and are harder to play against physically this year with more understanding than last year of Cronin, which is a positive that the next coach can build on while improving on everything else including possession which is the best defense.

But there have been a ton of games where it is passive bend-but-don't-break defense to legitimately terrible, shellshocked defensive breakdowns covered up by goalie vs the world and an opportunistic goal or two out of thin air where we have 0 business not being blown out in those games. I see enough of our goalies making huge saves that have nothing to do with defense to justify my opinion that we'd be at the very least 10 points down without them, which they deserve pretty much all of the credit for. If Dostal isn't a demigod early in the season we are already climbing up an insurmountable mountain.
Yes we definitely get saved by some amazing goaltending and at times look shell shocked like you said. I just don’t watch with the same investment teams like Dallas. Does otter make similar saves at maybe 1-2 less opportunities a game ? Would he make those saves if he had to face more shots ?

The positive for me is that if our goaltending can continue playing elite level, which I think we have the best tandem in the league if not one of the best. When we change to a better coach / system, over this guy who is focused on individualized developmental plans and as Leo becomes 23-24 I think we should be a wagon for a long time.
 
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