Proposal: 4th -> 1st

[SI90]

Isles don't have any interest in dropping to 4th. We need to guarantee one of Hagens, Misa or Schaefer. Obviously that guarantee cannot happen at #4.

Utah would first have to trade for either the 2nd or 3rd pick. And then trade that plus something good as the add on to us for the 1st.

Im not convinced CHI won’t take Martone. Seems like a great fit

 

[saintunspecified]

The Islanders will get killed by the local media if they trade down from the 1st overall and not end up with Hagens. The only real guarantee, is if they don't trade past 3

Local media is no issue. What local media, lol.

It's about had core fans. Such media as there is will almost certainly defend the pick.

If NYI pick Schaefer, it doesn't mean they're closed for business.

 

[ON3M4N]

The value difference between 1OA & 4OA is ~44.7 point in value according to the pick value table on Puckpedia. That point value is equal to the #6OA pick.

 

[Grinner]

Local media is no issue. What local media, lol.

It's about had core fans. Such media as there is will almost certainly defend the pick.

If NYI pick Schaefer, it doesn't mean they're closed for business.

The long Island media. Local sports talk radio. Whoever covers the Islanders on social media.
If they pick Schaefer and I think they will, will of course mean they used the #1 pick.
I think it doubtful, they'd use it to select Hagen

 

[saintunspecified]

The long Island media. Local sports talk radio. Whoever covers the Islanders on social media.
If they pick Schaefer and I think they will, will of course mean they used the #1 pick.
I think it doubtful, they'd use it to select Hagen

Long Island is subsumed under the auspices of Greater NY Metro media. That's why the Islanders disappear. They'll be talking Mets & Yankees in June, and will hardly notice the NHL draft, much less the Islanders at the NHL draft.

And local media people aren't big on home town heroes. New Yorkers, by and large, are from everywhere, so the home town angle is really not as big a deal as you'd think. The only thing that NYI will pay significant attention to is attendance, and maybe TV ratings. Tbh I think the whole Carmelo Anthony & Stephon Marbury thing killed whatever sentiment for that kind of thing there was city-wide.

It's about hard core fans who buy tickets, and them alone.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Value seems way off. It would cost at least Iginla to move up from #4 to #1. Especially since there is no guarantee Hagens would be available at #4

 

[miscs75]

Long Island is subsumed under the auspices of Greater NY Metro media. That's why the Islanders disappear. They'll be talking Mets & Yankees in June, and will hardly notice the NHL draft, much less the Islanders at the NHL draft.

And local media people aren't big on home town heroes. New Yorkers, by and large, are from everywhere, so the home town angle is really not as big a deal as you'd think. The only thing that NYI will pay significant attention to is attendance, and maybe TV ratings. Tbh I think the whole Carmelo Anthony & Stephon Marbury thing killed whatever sentiment for that kind of thing there was city-wide.

It's about hard core fans who buy tickets, and them alone.

This will gain traction in the local market for outside of the active teams. The Isles have the first pick and the whole Hagens ordeal is a big sell for the Long Island news outlets. The only way I see if getting pushed down quite a bit is if the Knicks win the next 2 rounds and make it into the championship. That’ll blow past the MLB for sure.

 

[T_Cage]

If NYI is the one that wants to trade down to take Hagens at 4 instead of 1, why should Utah overpay to help them out?

You want Hagens, take him at 1. I don't see enough of a difference between the top guys to warrant the kings ransom Isles fans are asking for

 

[JPeeper]

Minimum is Iginla + 4th overall, probably add a 2nd rounder in as well (or multiple).

Lol at 3 B- to C- grade prospects getting it done.

 

[Summer Rose]

I don't think it's worth it for us to trade up from 4th to 1st in this year's draft. What would actually be a reasonable add for us to send to Long Island in exchange for the privilege of moving up would be more than I'm comfortable giving up to move up three spots.

I've said it elsewhere, but that said, I could see us being good trading partners with the Islanders for something else, just not an exchange of first round picks this year.

 

[Qwijibo]

You don't win the lottery then not take the best player available just because there's a local kid available too. That's lunacy

 

[saintunspecified]

This will gain traction in the local market for outside of the active teams. The Isles have the first pick and the whole Hagens ordeal is a big sell for the Long Island news outlets. The only way I see if getting pushed down quite a bit is if the Knicks win the next 2 rounds and make it into the championship. That’ll blow past the MLB for sure.

I think the media angle is the wrong angle to consider. As I said elsewhere, the people I know who really care about the local Hagens angle are youth sports famlies. And for them it's really important, which isn't surprising. My guess is that these people are probably more important to the Islanders than a similar group would be to the Rangers just because they are a higher percentage of the current fanbase, and also include the future fan base.

 

[impaaaaaact]

If NYI is the one that wants to trade down to take Hagens at 4 instead of 1, why should Utah overpay to help them out?

You want Hagens, take him at 1. I don't see enough of a difference between the top guys to warrant the kings ransom Isles fans are asking for

tf? offer was made by a Utah fan. no one has any leverage but the Isles as they have the most valuable position here.

you want Misa that bad? pay the price to move up. IMO it would be 4th OA + Iginla + something else. Which is why these trades do not happen.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Speculating that Hagens will still be there @ 4th:
4th OA, Skahan (BC teammate), Beaudoin, Lavoie
1st OA -> Misa

Enough?
Is this the kinda overkill needed?

Remove the junk, and make it 4th + Iginla
That’s what it takes to entice a GM to move up to first overall, so not worth it imo.

 

[miscs75]

I think the media angle is the wrong angle to consider. As I said elsewhere, the people I know who really care about the local Hagens angle are youth sports famlies. And for them it's really important, which isn't surprising. My guess is that these people are probably more important to the Islanders than a similar group would be to the Rangers just because they are a higher percentage of the current fanbase, and also include the future fan base.

It's just the optics of a local kid from a small community like Long Island having a shot to truly play for the local franchise right from the start. It would have been just as big if the year McAvoy got drafted he was going to the Isles or Rangers. Not really saying people will ultimately care but they'll sell it as such and it'll get some random viewers and people locally to possibly tune in for the first pick to see if the Islanders take that local kid. Not quite the Anthony Volpe level big but still somewhat notable.

 

[Llewzaher]

It’s best for NYI not to drop below 3

And Best for Utah to get into the top 2

IMO

 

[miscs75]

I've said it elsewhere, but that said, I could see us being good trading partners with the Islanders for something else, just not an exchange of first round picks this year.

It's more so the teams desperate enough to move up to 1 to take Schaefer or Misa and entice the Isles with the right quality in order to have them move down. If a team in the top 4 wants one of those two and is 100% positive the Islanders can still get the other player they want by moving down then its worth it for the Isles. For the Isles to move down to 4 and miss out on essentially all of Hagens, Misa and Schaefer; the offset would have to be massive.

 

[Brodeur]

The value difference between 1OA & 4OA is ~44.7 point in value according to the pick value table on Puckpedia. That point value is equal to the #6OA pick.

Draft pick value charts work better for the NFL than the NHL. With hockey it really does come down to the year.

4OA and spare parts doesnt get you 1OA

It depends on what the Islanders' intentions are. I think there's a misconception that if a team offers up enough draft pick value then the other team would say yes. Typically teams trading down are doing so because they can still land their intended target while adding a couple assets. With regards to Utah, it would depend on whether San Jose or Chicago wanted to move up for Schaefer as well.

The handful of times we've seen a top 2 pick moved:

1993: San Jose traded #2 to Hartford for #6, #45, #58, Sergei Makarov - For better or worse the Sharks decided to take Viktor Kozlov instead of Chris Pronger because they wanted a franchise center.

1998: San Jose traded #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29 - San Jose had drafted Patrick Marleau the previous year so they thought David Legwand was a redundant piece / they wanted a cornerstone D. Meanwhile Nashville was in its first draft and wanted a presumed high scoring forward to be the face of the franchise.

1999: Tampa Bay traded #1 to Vancouver for #4, #75, and #88 - It was a year without a consensus #1. Most figured Tampa was going to get a winger for Vinny Lecavalier so they'd be debating between Daniel Sedin or Pavel Brendl. After the fact, Tampa GM Rick Dudley said they would have taken Brendl had they kept the pick. Dudley waited to see if Brian Burke would improve his meager offer. Simultaneously Dudley shopped the pick outright and worked out a deal with the Rangers who also wanted Brendl. The morning of the draft, Dudley agreed to Vancouver's offer since he was now a middle man to deliver Brendl to the Rangers.

2003: Florida traded #1 and #73 to Pittsburgh for #3, #55, and Mikael Samuelsson - Florida won the lottery and had Nathan Horton atop their list. Dudley, now GM in Florida, figured he could trade down a spot or two and still get Horton. He tried to drum up a bidding war between Carolina and Pittsburgh but eventually settled on a forgettable offer from the Penguins.

 

[Schemp]

4thOA+ -> 2ndOA
then 4thOA -> Dobson+
NYI drafts Schaefer & Hagens, trades Dobson (no idea what the plus is)
SJ trades 2nd OA and pick up +s from Utah & NYI to make the trade work and Dobson.

 

[ON3M4N]

Draft pick value charts work better for the NFL than the NHL. With hockey it really does come down to the year.



It depends on what the Islanders' intentions are. I think there's a misconception that if a team offers up enough draft pick value then the other team would say yes. Typically teams trading down are doing so because they can still land their intended target while adding a couple assets. With regards to Utah, it would depend on whether San Jose or Chicago wanted to move up for Schaefer as well.

The handful of times we've seen a top 2 pick moved:

1993: San Jose traded #2 to Hartford for #6, #45, #58, Sergei Makarov - For better or worse the Sharks decided to take Viktor Kozlov instead of Chris Pronger because they wanted a franchise center.

1998: San Jose traded #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29 - San Jose had drafted Patrick Marleau the previous year so they thought David Legwand was a redundant piece / they wanted a cornerstone D. Meanwhile Nashville was in its first draft and wanted a presumed high scoring forward to be the face of the franchise.

1999: Tampa Bay traded #1 to Vancouver for #4, #75, and #88 - It was a year without a consensus #1. Most figured Tampa was going to get a winger for Vinny Lecavalier so they'd be debating between Daniel Sedin or Pavel Brendl. After the fact, Tampa GM Rick Dudley said they would have taken Brendl had they kept the pick. Dudley waited to see if Brian Burke would improve his meager offer. Simultaneously Dudley shopped the pick outright and worked out a deal with the Rangers who also wanted Brendl. The morning of the draft, Dudley agreed to Vancouver's offer since he was now a middle man to deliver Brendl to the Rangers.

2003: Florida traded #1 and #73 to Pittsburgh for #3, #55, and Mikael Samuelsson - Florida won the lottery and had Nathan Horton atop their list. Dudley, now GM in Florida, figured he could trade down a spot or two and still get Horton. He tried to drum up a bidding war between Carolina and Pittsburgh but eventually settled on a forgettable offer from the Penguins.

You could say the same for the NFL when you're talking picks in the top 5. Sometimes there's a generational prospects at #1 and other times maybe just a future star.

I think the value sets a good foundation though.

 

[Jormungandr]

Draft pick value charts work better for the NFL than the NHL. With hockey it really does come down to the year.



It depends on what the Islanders' intentions are. I think there's a misconception that if a team offers up enough draft pick value then the other team would say yes. Typically teams trading down are doing so because they can still land their intended target while adding a couple assets. With regards to Utah, it would depend on whether San Jose or Chicago wanted to move up for Schaefer as well.

The handful of times we've seen a top 2 pick moved:

1993: San Jose traded #2 to Hartford for #6, #45, #58, Sergei Makarov - For better or worse the Sharks decided to take Viktor Kozlov instead of Chris Pronger because they wanted a franchise center.

1998: San Jose traded #2 and #85 to Nashville for #3 and #29 - San Jose had drafted Patrick Marleau the previous year so they thought David Legwand was a redundant piece / they wanted a cornerstone D. Meanwhile Nashville was in its first draft and wanted a presumed high scoring forward to be the face of the franchise.

1999: Tampa Bay traded #1 to Vancouver for #4, #75, and #88 - It was a year without a consensus #1. Most figured Tampa was going to get a winger for Vinny Lecavalier so they'd be debating between Daniel Sedin or Pavel Brendl. After the fact, Tampa GM Rick Dudley said they would have taken Brendl had they kept the pick. Dudley waited to see if Brian Burke would improve his meager offer. Simultaneously Dudley shopped the pick outright and worked out a deal with the Rangers who also wanted Brendl. The morning of the draft, Dudley agreed to Vancouver's offer since he was now a middle man to deliver Brendl to the Rangers.

2003: Florida traded #1 and #73 to Pittsburgh for #3, #55, and Mikael Samuelsson - Florida won the lottery and had Nathan Horton atop their list. Dudley, now GM in Florida, figured he could trade down a spot or two and still get Horton. He tried to drum up a bidding war between Carolina and Pittsburgh but eventually settled on a forgettable offer from the Penguins.

Also, In 2002 Columbus traded up from #3 to #1 to draft Rick Nash. The only other compensation was “Florida's option to swap first-round picks in the 2003 draft”.

People seriously overestimate the value these types of trade bring. They’re usually very underwhelming, and dependent on GM’s preference of players available.

 

[miscs75]

Also, In 2002 Columbus traded up from #3 to #1 to draft Rick Nash. The only other compensation was “Florida's option to swap first-round picks in the 2003 draft”.

People seriously overestimate the value these types of trade bring. They’re usually very underwhelming, and dependent on GM’s preference of players available.

I’d laugh if the Isles did that and Chicago goes and win next years lottery. Isles walk away with Hagens and McKenna.

 

[Brodeur]

Also, In 2002 Columbus traded up from #3 to #1 to draft Rick Nash. The only other compensation was “Florida's option to swap first-round picks in the 2003 draft”.

People seriously overestimate the value these types of trade bring. They’re usually very underwhelming, and dependent on GM’s preference of players available.

I always enjoyed that 2002 trade, kudos to Rick Dudley and Doug MacLean for creativity. In Florida's case they were set to take Jay Bouwmeester #1. Columbus was set to take Rick Nash at #3 since they figured Atlanta wouldn't be taking another wing after Heatley/Kovalchuk. But then on the morning of the draft Philadelphia moved up to #4 and Columbus got spooked that the Flyers could leapfrog them for Nash at #2. If Nash was off the board, Columbus didn't love the options after using their firsts on Klesla/Leclaire.

Trade downs are tough to negotiate since the team trading down likely has a particular target in mind. It'd be rare for a team at #1 thinking "Any of those next three or four guys would be fine." In 2002, Florida still got Bouwmeester at #3 and added extra lottery odds for 2003 (at a cost of giving Atlanta a 3rd round to bypass JBo).

Apparently in 2013 Florida made an offer to swap #2 + something (a young Dmitri Kulikov?) to Colorado for #1 but were declined. Kings talked to the Rangers about swapping the Lafreniere/Byfield picks in 2020 but New York wasn't interested. It'd be interesting to know if the Islanders scouts had even made a determination or if they're just getting ramped up (especially with a new GM pending). When the Devils won the 2017 lottery it seemed like they had to pivot to do their homework on the top guys since they had been more recently focused on other players (Devils were #5 pre-lottery).

At least in the context of this proposal, it's difficult to tell because if the Islanders were looking to trade down then it likely wouldn't be just Utah in a vacuum looking to move up. San Jose and Chicago could throw their hats into the ring which would drive up the price.

When San Jose auctioned off the #2 pick in 1993, one of the requirements was that they needed to still land Viktor Kozlov if they were trading down. The Rangers offered something around #8 and other assets but that pick was too late to guarantee Kozlov. Quebec offered Mike Ricci and #10 but were turned down. Hartford became the trade partner by default since they were the only team who could realistically still deliver Kozlov (and that became a funny anecdote).

TL;DR - Who knows if the Islanders are willing to move down to #4

 

[Juxtaposer]

4thOA+ -> 2ndOA
then 4thOA -> Dobson+
NYI drafts Schaefer & Hagens, trades Dobson (no idea what the plus is)
SJ trades 2nd OA and pick up +s from Utah & NYI to make the trade work and Dobson.

Why on earth are the Sharks doing this? Unless the plus is Simashev or Iginla then the Sharks have absolutely zero reason to facilitate this.

 

[Mr grumpy]

So 4th

Speculating that Hagens will still be there @ 4th:
4th OA, Skahan (BC teammate), Beaudoin, Lavoie
1st OA -> Misa

Enough?
Is this the kinda overkill needed?

So 4th overall is better than first due to his boyfriends?