Prospect Info: #46 Overall, RD Seamus Casey US-NTDP

[Guttersniped]

but considering the value we save on goaltending, and especially in two years with one of the kids likely starting and a cheap backup (or so I hope, I believe in Daws) - 35% for three defenseman playing 21+ a night is very expensive but seems like it can be made due with

Youll have a very cheap third pair and one or both of Dillon/Siegenthaler gone, Pesce can slide to LD or be moved as well (though moving him would cost something)

The offense is going to be an amalgamation of wingers to supplant into the middle-6 over time and eventually internal replacements so youll save a lot of money that way

Not an easy situation to maneuver but it can be done

It’s always bad to overspend on defense. You pay for production and it makes more sense to put it into forward production.

One expensive offensive defensemen will cannibalize the other’s production, it won’t be worth it to pay a bunch of defenders big money.

I don’t see Hamilton isn’t staying here all 4 years unless he ends up on the LTIR.

I get that you disagree, but teams don’t wildly overspend on defense and win.

 

[Hisch13r]

It’s always bad to overspend on defense. You pay for production and it makes more sense to put it into forward production.

One expensive offensive defensemen will cannibalize the other’s production, it won’t be worth it to pay a bunch of defenders big money.

I don’t see Hamilton isn’t staying here all 4 years unless he ends up on the LTIR.

I get that you disagree, but teams don’t wildly overspend on defense and win.

I don’t even see how he can be here 3 seasons from now. We’re looking at potentially 38-40 mil on the 6 D in 26-27 if Dougie’s here. That’s just wild. Even if Siegs or Dillon are gone and replace with a guy making basically nothing you’re still looking at like 35-37.5. Moving Dougie out and replacing that with Casey on an ELC is just flat out the smart move. Even if Dougie’s better is he going to be 8 mil better? Unless Casey wildly disappoints he definitely won’t be. Love Dougie but if someone will take on the full deal I’d be fine moving him and getting back nothing but cap relief

 

[Triumph]

I don’t even see how he can be here 3 seasons from now. We’re looking at potentially 38-40 mil on the 6 D in 26-27 if Dougie’s here. That’s just wild. Even if Siegs or Dillon are gone and replace with a guy making basically nothing you’re still looking at like 35-37.5. Moving Dougie out and replacing that with Casey on an ELC is just flat out the smart move. Even if Dougie’s better is he going to be 8 mil better? Unless Casey wildly disappoints he definitely won’t be. Love Dougie but if someone will take on the full deal I’d be fine moving him and getting back nothing but cap relief

I don't think anyone takes the full deal but you move him out with $2M retention and get back 2 2nds or whatever.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I think it’s going to cost nj to move Dougie. Hypothetically if they had to move him this summer and he only had one year left on his deal, which teams could have traded for him at full cap hit? Chicago or San Jose? Detroit had to pay to trade walman who is a decent top 4 defenseman not making a lot of money.

There would probably have to be some retention to trade Dougie. But we are talking 3 years from now. Anything can happen he could even develop an allergy to his hockey equipment 3 years from now like Hossa

 

[MasterofGrond]

I think it’s going to cost nj to move Dougie. Hypothetically if they had to move him this summer and he only had one year left on his deal, which teams could have traded for him at full cap hit? Chicago or San Jose? Detroit had to pay to trade walman who is a decent top 4 defenseman not making a lot of money.

There would probably have to be some retention to trade Dougie. But we are talking 3 years from now. Anything can happen he could even develop an allergy to his hockey equipment 3 years from now like Hossa

Detroit didn’t have to pay to move Walman reportedly. Rumor is a couple GMs are on record saying they woulda taken him for free, lol. YZERPLAN

And in the 2 years when Dougie is up to be moved, the cap will have continued to increase, there’s probably multiple years of increases as big or bigger than this year coming. There will be more options for a deal than there would have been hypothetically this year.

 

[Guadana]

I think it’s going to cost nj to move Dougie. Hypothetically if they had to move him this summer and he only had one year left on his deal, which teams could have traded for him at full cap hit? Chicago or San Jose? Detroit had to pay to trade walman who is a decent top 4 defenseman not making a lot of money.

There would probably have to be some retention to trade Dougie. But we are talking 3 years from now. Anything can happen he could even develop an allergy to his hockey equipment 3 years from now like Hossa

Its a problem of Yzerman or some kind of future considerations from the past worked. Wallman was attractive for some teams.

 

[dgibb10]

I think it’s going to cost nj to move Dougie. Hypothetically if they had to move him this summer and he only had one year left on his deal, which teams could have traded for him at full cap hit? Chicago or San Jose? Detroit had to pay to trade walman who is a decent top 4 defenseman not making a lot of money.

There would probably have to be some retention to trade Dougie. But we are talking 3 years from now. Anything can happen he could even develop an allergy to his hockey equipment 3 years from now like Hossa

presumably he would have gone to Utah.

Or maybe Nashville. Or maybe seattle.

Those are 3 teams who spent large on dmen this offseason

In terms of next season, the good news is that the RD market sucks ass.

 

[Triumph]

I think it’s going to cost nj to move Dougie. Hypothetically if they had to move him this summer and he only had one year left on his deal, which teams could have traded for him at full cap hit? Chicago or San Jose? Detroit had to pay to trade walman who is a decent top 4 defenseman not making a lot of money.

There would probably have to be some retention to trade Dougie. But we are talking 3 years from now. Anything can happen he could even develop an allergy to his hockey equipment 3 years from now like Hossa

The Devils won't be able to move Hamilton's entire contract for free, but if they retain on him they can pick up assets. I don't know if Markstrom would've cost anything if the Devils had taken on his whole salary - maybe a 2nd round pick. If the Devils pick up around 20-25% they can get a few picks for him or maybe a 2nd and a useful body.

 

[My3Sons]

The Devils won't be able to move Hamilton's entire contract for free, but if they retain on him they can pick up assets. I don't know if Markstrom would've cost anything if the Devils had taken on his whole salary - maybe a 2nd round pick. If the Devils pick up around 20-25% they can get a few picks for him or maybe a 2nd and a useful body.

my best guess is that he plays this upcoming season and the following season for NJ. They likely need his cap when Nemec needs an extension. My presumption is that Mercer signs a bridge deal and NJ will be able to cobble together enough cap to fit in Luke's extension next offseason.

 

[dgibb10]

my best guess is that he plays this upcoming season and the following season for NJ. They likely need his cap when Nemec needs an extension. My presumption is that Mercer signs a bridge deal and NJ will be able to cobble together enough cap to fit in Luke's extension next offseason.

Luke's cap should deal with itself via the cap increase, assuming we don't get burned by big overage penalties due to injuries again

Nobody significant due a raise.

assuming a 5 mill cap increase, we have I think 1-1.5 mill extra in space now assuming we bridge mercer (rip capfriendly), the overages from last year come off the books (1.6 mill), I think the kovalchuk stuff comes off (250k again rip capfriendly).

That should be something like 8.5 mill of a raise we can give Luke. He'll probably require only 7-7.5 of that. Save the rest for Nemec bonuses again.

Unless Gritysuk demands something crazy right away after coming over at the end of the year

 

[My3Sons]

Luke's cap should deal with itself via the cap increase, assuming we don't get burned by big overage penalties due to injuries again

Nobody significant due a raise.

assuming a 5 mill cap increase, we have I think 1-1.5 mill extra in space now assuming we bridge mercer (rip capfriendly), the overages from last year come off the books (1.6 mill), I think the kovalchuk stuff comes off (250k again rip capfriendly).

That should be something like 8.5 mill of a raise we can give Luke. He'll probably require only 7-7.5 of that. Save the rest for Nemec bonuses again.

Unless Gritysuk demands something crazy right away after coming over at the end of the year

I forgot about the bonus overage penalty.

 

[dgibb10]

I forgot about the bonus overage penalty.

Assuming we don't go over again it should open up.

Worst case scenario we have approximately the same bonuses from luke and nemec totalling 1.6 mill maximum (unless they win the norris or some shit and then it's a mill each for those hefty bonuses)

 

[Blackjack]

And in the 2 years when Dougie is up to be moved, the cap will have continued to increase, there’s probably multiple years of increases as big or bigger than this year coming. There will be more options for a deal than there would have been hypothetically this year.

I don't really take this as the fait accompli that everyone else seems to. The big jump we saw this year was related to the league selling out to the betting houses. Now every other word on the broadcast is Draft Kings or whatever shit heel company is draining addicts of their rent money these days.

Where's the next jump coming from? Even higher ticket prices? Higher distribution revenues? I'm a little skeptical.

 

[Triumph]

I don't really take this as the fait accompli that everyone else seems to. The big jump we saw this year was related to the league selling out to the betting houses. Now every other word on the broadcast is Draft Kings or whatever shit heel company is draining addicts of their rent money these days.

Where's the next jump coming from? Even higher ticket prices? Higher distribution revenues? I'm a little skeptical.

What are you talking about? League revenues are way, way above where the cap is right now. The players had to pay back their salaries from when league revenues were more than halved during the 2020-21 season, which kept the cap artificially low. They've now completed paying the league back. The salary cap should be $100 million right now, and it's at $88M. Barring unforseen economic turmoil, the cap will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, and it has very little to do with sports betting.

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't really take this as the fait accompli that everyone else seems to. The big jump we saw this year was related to the league selling out to the betting houses. Now every other word on the broadcast is Draft Kings or whatever shit heel company is draining addicts of their rent money these days.

Where's the next jump coming from? Even higher ticket prices? Higher distribution revenues? I'm a little skeptical.

The NHL could only raise the cap by 5% this year, that limit was set by the 2022 Memorandum of Understanding.

The MOA also laid out the previous COVID rules: the cap was frozen for two years and then any yearly increase was limited to 1m for two years.

So the bump in 24-25 includes a lot of inflation and the new revenue for Seattle. Vegas led to a 4.5m bump in 2018-19, a new team adds a lot.

If it wasn’t for escrow and the players’ COVID debt they could’ve been more aggressive with the upper limit, the revenue is already there for it to be higher than it is now.

The estimate for next off-season ~92m and that was before Utah.

And this pent up growth is supposed to take three seasons, so that’s a bump in 2026-27.

After that it the growth will presumably be a lot slower until another expansion team is added.


.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

It’s always bad to overspend on defense. You pay for production and it makes more sense to put it into forward production.

One expensive offensive defensemen will cannibalize the other’s production, it won’t be worth it to pay a bunch of defenders big money.

I don’t see Hamilton isn’t staying here all 4 years unless he ends up on the LTIR.

I get that you disagree, but teams don’t wildly overspend on defense and win.

The fourth year I can understand and sort of agree with

But I do think its not that outlandish to see Dougie here the same year Nemec is paid; but just for that season, after youd gain a lot of breathing room for a buy-in for the next year

Bigger issue IMO than the money is Nemec proving enough before then to warrant it on its own, money aside; cant have him stalling out because of Dougie

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Though I regret derailing the Casey thread lol

Should be fun to watch him in the A this season

 

[Devs3cups]

He seems to have a great attitude.

 

[Bad Goalie]

He seems to have a great attitude.

Utica will welcome him with open arms as it does to all NJ prospects and be behind him all the way on his quest for the NHL.

 

[Xirik]

Utica will welcome him with open arms as it does to all NJ prospects and be behind him all the way on his quest for the NHL.

He played forward for a bit. Maybe he can play Center for the Utica.

 

[Bad Goalie]

He played forward for a bit. Maybe he can play Center for the Utica.

It would be something the Devils might have up their sleeves. They have spent 3 seasons trying to put square pegs (non centers) into a round hole (the center slot) and it hasn't worked out.