40% of Season Complete - who is living up to their contract AAV?

[Stealth JD]

Blues are 33 games into their 82 game season, sitting at 15-15-3. Simple question - check the guys who have been worth what they're being paid. Don't check the guys who haven't been worth their money.

Injured Leddy was omitted, as was newcomer Fowler as there's simply not enough data to warrant an assessment.

For guys in the final year of their current contract but who have already signed a contract for next year (Neighbours & Buchnevich), I'm asking about next year's contract as I doubt very much the club is expecting either of those guys to take a massive step forward in their development from what they're bringing today. Both guys are clearly worth their current contracts ($835k & $5.8M) so there's little to be gleaned from having that discussion. The more interesting question is 'Are they worth what Army just extended them for'?

The guys who get selected that are living up to their contracts and likely are the guys Army/Steen wouldn't be interested in moving; though it could be argued that it's a good time to sell on those guys if that should be a consideration.

The guys not checked would probably find themselves on the list of 'problems to be addressed'.

Let's have a look at the consensus views of Army's roster for '24-'25.

Click to read more...

 

[Stealth JD]

Toughest ones for me were Binnington & Perunovich. Binny has played well, but his numbers are ugly. I tend to believe that it's a function of the flawed roster around him, but for $6M it's a flimsy limb to go out onto in order to say he's been worth the money.

Perunovich was a dud for the first quarter of the season, getting very little playing time. But for what he makes and what he's brought over the past month it's tough to say he's not worth a shade over $1M. If he was brought back at that number as a UFA, I could live with it and say he's worth that amount - even though I think the Blues need better defenders than him. His contract would presumably have value at that number though and be able to be moved.

Guys like Toropchenko, Texier, Faksa, M. Joseph, Sunny - bottom of the lineup guys making substantially more than league minimum...they've brought very little bang for the buck.

Drastically overpaid vets like Faulk, Saad, Schenn, even Buchy, are why this club is where it is. You can't spend that much money for such inconsistent-to-'bad' play. Buchnevich has turned it around a bit since Monty come on board, but that new contract is scary if he settles into a 50-60 point winger.

Leddy, Fowler, Krug - on top of the first three guys mentioned in the last section....that's a hell of a lot of money tied up in bottom of the roster veterans.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Thomas is great. He missed some time but is still rocking a point per game pace

Kyrou is doing well. Currently top 10 in the league in 5v5 goals and top 20 in 5v5 points. Leads the team in PP points, Even Strength Points, and Points with the Goalie Pulled.

Neighbours is on pace for another 25 goal season. While I want more assists from him as a 3.5m PP net front presence I think it lives up to that price tag.

Broberg and Holloway are fantastic worth every penny

Bolduc is a rookie and is doing fine.

Hofer is doing fantastic when his starts, there's a couple stinkers but he makes .775

Walker is a little engine going everywhere playing like someone who is 5 inches taller than he actually is

Grandpa Suter is playing in over his head but it's a league minimum deal and putting in 20 minutes a night.

Parayko i think has been fantastic.

I think Faksa is fine for his money and his role.

 

[HighNote]

There are less players who are not living up to their contract, so I'll list those:

Buchnevich
Faulk
Saad
Schenn
Texier

Buch is beginning to turn it around, he's looked good lately. Faulk hasn't been terrible but he hasn't been good. I don't know what Saad even does anymore. Schenn hasn't been awful, but we all saw this coming with age. Texier is pretty much useless.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm voting for Bolduc, Broberg, Hofer, Holloway, Kessel, Kyrou, Neighbours, Parayko, Suter, Thomas and Walker.

Neighbours is borderline in that group. I'd like a little more over the duration of that contract. But he's pacing for 20+g and 40 points. Offensively he's fine but defensively and possession-wise, I'd like better.

Kessel and Walker were also borderline, but are on cheap deals. I'd rather have someone better, but for league minimum, I can't really complain. Perunovuch was close to a check, surprisingly, but he hasn't played enough solid games. He started slow, was great for a stretch but then was getting scratched again.

Buchnevich is off the list due to his time at C. That was awful, and not his fault. I don't see him as an issue going forward at wing. But I couldn't give him a check

Binnington, Faulk, and Saad are my worst offenders. People will push back on Binner but Hofer is outplaying him at near league minimum. Schenn isn't as bad, but I'd expect more out of his salary and the C.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Strong-ish consensus on this board.

 

[StlBigFly]

Saad is tough. He’s not getting anywhere near the icetime you’d usually assign him.

People keep saying Buchnevich at center was bad, or even horrible. It’s literally not what happened.

He was top 3 in league wide +/- after 8 games, his possession stats tilted the ice in our favor for a dozen games. He outperformed career centers.


The reason it doesn’t work is because we don’t have a winger to fill his spot and that exposes one of the two top 6 lines. We need somebody who has at least a little puck possession game to fill the void that is left when Buchnevich moves out of the wing slot. If we had this it would work. We don’t have this, and it’s super magnified when CenterBuch and Kyrou share a line - the other line is hosed.

I will die on this hill.

(Call Steve y get debrincat for Thomas’ right pocket)

 

[Majorityof1]

How can 3 people (so far) justify voting for Binnington? I'm asking not to argue but to try to see your viewpoint. Mine?

He is the 7th highest paid goalie, yet he is 30th is GSAA/60, 20th in wins above replacement. He has lower stats than near league minimum Hofer playing in front of the same team. He has a .413 point capture which would pace him for a 68 point season.

 

[ExtremeColdWeather]

Yeah, I love Binner but he's not having a good year

 

[Oberyn]

Saad is tough. He’s not getting anywhere near the icetime you’d usually assign him.

People keep saying Buchnevich at center was bad, or even horrible. It’s literally not what happened.

He was top 3 in league wide +/- after 8 games, his possession stats tilted the ice in our favor for a dozen games. He outperformed career centers.


The reason it doesn’t work is because we don’t have a winger to fill his spot and that exposes one of the two top 6 lines. We need somebody who has at least a little puck possession game to fill the void that is left when Buchnevich moves out of the wing slot. If we had this it would work. We don’t have this, and it’s super magnified when CenterBuch and Kyrou share a line - the other line is hosed.

I will die on this hill.

(Call Steve y get debrincat for Thomas’ right pocket)

Why use 8 game cutoff for Buchnevich? He was a center for a lot longer than that. His last plus game as a center was the Blues 8th game against the Leafs. Over the next 11 games as center he was either neutral or a minus player and was a collective -11 over that stretch.

 

[Stealth JD]

How can 3 people (so far) justify voting for Binnington? I'm asking not to argue but to try to see your viewpoint. Mine?

He is the 7th highest paid goalie, yet he is 30th is GSAA/60, 20th in wins above replacement. He has lower stats than near league minimum Hofer playing in front of the same team. He has a .413 point capture which would pace him for a 68 point season.

i can't think of too many soft goals he's given up; I'd venture to say he's saved about as many goals as expected. He's been steady; spectacular at times but the results just haven't been there often enough. I don't know that I can blame Binner for the team scoring 1 or 2 goals per game. I think he's provided about what was expected of him. He was a tough call for me, but I'm comfortable keeping him at that $-number based on his play and would expect better results with a better team in front of him.

 

[Majorityof1]

i can't think of too many soft goals he's given up; I'd venture to say he's saved about as many goals as expected. He's been steady; spectacular at times but the results just haven't been there often enough. I don't know that I can blame Binner for the team scoring 1 or 2 goals per game. I think he's provided about what was expected of him. He was a tough call for me, but I'm comfortable keeping him at that $-number based on his play and would expect better results with a better team in front of him.

Thank you for the response. I remember some bad/borderline goals but I am more critical than most. He has saved more than expected by the stats (just barely), but expected does not account for salary. He is paid to save far more than just expected.

There is an argument that the stats don't account for puck movement prior to the shot. That has been an issue gauging his performance in prior years. But I don't see that as much of an issue this year. We aren't giving up near as many back door tap-ins as years past.

 

[Brian39]

I very much disagree that the present-season expectations for Buch/Neighbours are the same as the expectations for them through duration of the extensions.

Buch was asked to change positions to be a stop gap center to buy the organization time while we wait for Dvorsky (and other developing prospects) to get to the NHL. He was very much asked to eat one for the team this year with the understanding that eventually he'd go back to his natural position/role. I think his role during the extension when he's making $8M AAV will be very different than the role he played for the first 20ish games of the season. I'm not willing to ignore the context of that when evaluating whether his play in that role has been worth a future contract where he won't be playing that role.

Neighbours is 22. I very much don't believe that the organization expects him to stop improving and just be who he is now through the duration of his extension. That number is absolutely based on both past performance and expected growth in his game.

But even if we are saying that the Blues expect nothing about either player to change, we can't fairly compare their AAV's that will kick in under a noticeably higher cap to that value of that AAV against the current cap. The cap is going up at least 5% and it is widely reported that the league wants to reach an agreement with the PA to increase by more than that. 2025/26 is the last season under the existing CBA and the last year where the cap will be artificially low due to the COVID agreement. No one wants a $15M+ single season cap jump in the summer of 2026 and it is in all parties best interest to smooth that out starting this summer. Realistically, the cap is probably going to increase by 7-10% this summer. $8M in 2025/26 is probably going to be worth about $7.5M (or less) today in terms of cap percentage.

 

[MissouriMook]

It's a bit nit-picky, but I wanted to point out that Buch is still in the last year of his $5.8 million AAV contract.

 

[StlBigFly]

Why use 8 game cutoff for Buchnevich? He was a center for a lot longer than that. His last plus game as a center was the Blues 8th game against the Leafs. Over the next 11 games as center he was either neutral or a minus player and was a collective -11 over that stretch.

At no point would I expect Buch to perform well as center if we’re down Robert Thomas. He isn’t that guy. There’s maybe 16 guys league wide who are that guy. We don’t have the depth for this.

Thomas’ line draws the premium matchup.

Buchnevich’s hypothetical line gets to be a counter attack threat.

That will fully break apart and fail if Thomas isn't there to Eat the premium matchup.

Worst case scenario for Buch, when Thomas is in the lineup, is that he gets the premium matchup - this is the source of my Debrincat wishes. Let the other team do that and find out. Balanced attack ftw. It only works when it cuts both ways.

If we need a center for 2 years while Dvorsky develops, what if instead of paying a lot for a center we instead paid less for a winger and used the quasi center we have, but also replaced him when we moved him on the depth chart so there isn’t a huge hole.

 

[Majorityof1]

It's a bit nit-picky, but I wanted to point out that Buch is still in the last year of his $5.8 million AAV contract.

OP addressed it in the first post. For players in the last year if their current deal, he put the extention AAV for those that are already signed one. He felt the discussion would be more interesting than Buch at sub $6m and neighbours on an ELC.

 

[Brian39]

i can't think of too many soft goals he's given up; I'd venture to say he's saved about as many goals as expected. He's been steady; spectacular at times but the results just haven't been there often enough. I don't know that I can blame Binner for the team scoring 1 or 2 goals per game. I think he's provided about what was expected of him. He was a tough call for me, but I'm comfortable keeping him at that $-number based on his play and would expect better results with a better team in front of him.

My eye test sees him getting beat clean more often than last year. He's getting beaten short side too often and pucks have found their way between his arms/chest and 5 hole too often. There have been way too many instances where he makes a number of great saves, but (as has been an issue in the past) he's getting beaten from distance more than he should.

The numbers back up my eye test.

At 5 on 5, his average goal distance is from 23.08 feet away. That is 32nd of the 35 goalies who have played 600+minutes at 5 on 5 this year.

His low danger SV% on unblocked attempts is 27th of 36 goalies who have played 14+ games. The difference between his expected low danger SV% and his actual low danger SV% is 25th. His medium danger SV% is 23rd and the difference between his expected medium danger SV% is 25th. In both categories he is allowing more goals than expected. HIs high danger performance has been good so far (7th in the league in terms of the raw number and vs expected).

I think we are starting him too often, but he's on pace to start 57 games so it isn't like the workload has been insane. We are also not giving Hofer all the cupcakes while Binner gets the good teams. Hofer has only played 1 of our 4 games against teams who have fewer than 30 standings points. Half of Hofer's starts are against teams currently sitting in playoff position, including the 1st place Jets and both our games against the 6th place Hurricanes.

I'm not panicked about Binner and I wouldn't say that he's playing poorly. But he hasn't been a top 10 goalie this year and I don't think he's been even an average starter. That happens to a lot of great goalies over a small sample size and goaltending is not near the top of my complaints about the team. But in a thread where we are talking about to living up to AAVs, he hasn't done that this season.