30 Years of Canadian Franchises Losing in the Cup Final

[Voight]

1994
NY Rangers (1st overall) vs. Vancouver Canucks (14th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 7 games

2004
Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd overall) vs. Calgary Flames (12th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 7 games

2006
Carolina Hurricanes (3rd overall) vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 7 games

2007
Anaheim Ducks (3rd overall) vs. Ottawa Senators (8th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 5 games

2011
Vancouver Canucks (1st overall) vs. Boston Bruins (7th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 7 games

2021
Tampa Bay Lightning (8th overall) vs. Montreal Canadiens (18th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 5 games

2024
Florida Panthers (4th overall) vs. Edmonton Oilers (9th overall)
Result: US franchise wins in 7 games
____________________________________________

You'll notice a pattern here...

So, the past 7 times a Canadian franchise has made it to the Cup Finals, it lost. And in five of those seven times, it lost in game 7.

Maybe the case of 2021 Tampa - Montreal, you'd expect the stronger team to win... which it did, in 5 games. But I'd say in all the other six cases, the Canadian franchise had at least a good chance (obviously, as five of six went to 7 games). Yes, the Canadian franchise lost every single one. That's 7 in a row, people. SEVEN in a row.

Is this the inevitable result of bringing in an NBA guy to run a growing league that sells a Canadian-shaped sport as well as free-agent preference for warmer weather and lower taxes? Or, are all seven in a row somehow easily explicable?

Anaheim was a much better team than Ottawa in 2007. Sens were basically carried by the Pizza Line. No depth at all and you aren't winning any cups with Wade Redden as your #1 defensemen.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

lower taxes

I've made many posts about this topic on the main board. Yes, generally speaking, tax rates are lower in the US than in Canada, but I don't see it as a huge difference because:

1. "Jock taxes" - some places tax athletes based on the games played in that jurisdiction, which helps to normalize the tax rates across teams.
2. Tax planning - some players can use various strategies to lower their tax burden. It appears that Auston Matthews, for example, pays substantially less in tax than most of his Toronto teammates, due to how he's structured his affairs.
3. RCA - this is a tool that can help high income Canadians (including professional athletes) defer their taxes. (In fact, it's so powerful that the NBA has banned Toronto Raptors players from using it).
4. Rate differences - the tax rates vary in each state and province. For example, rates for higher-tax US teams (ie Kings, Sharks, Ducks, Rangers, Islanders) aren't very different for lower-tax Canadian teams (ie Oilers, Flames).

I know this is a tangent, and I'm not suggesting that you're doing this, but I've seen a lot of people on the main boards dramatically exaggerate the difference in tax rates.

 

[Staniowski]

There's currently 25 US-based teams and 7 Canadian-based teams. So, even if everything was equal, we shouldn't necessarily expect a big number of Cups by Canadian teams.

I have no doubt that players generally preferring to play for US-based teams is a factor, but the question is how big of a factor? I suspect it's somewhat of a small factor.

Canadian-based teams are still able to build good hockey teams. Imagine if Edmonton had drafted a little better over the past several years - they could've had a couple more impact players at low cost.

And I'm sure there are several US-based teams for which players generally prefer not to play for either.

 

[The Panther]

Of course there are plenty of good Canadian-based clubs over any period of time. However, I still think there is starting to be an evident competitive disadvantage for Canadian franchises, as 7 consecutive Finals' losses suggests.

In the salary cap-era, the advantage of any one club over another is so small that ease of things like ability to sign free-agents can tip the scales in one team's favor. And that's not tipping it in Canadian clubs' favor....

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Humans as a species are exceptionally good at identifying “patterns” in random data.

 

[Staniowski]

Of course there are plenty of good Canadian-based clubs over any period of time. However, I still think there is starting to be an evident competitive disadvantage for Canadian franchises, as 7 consecutive Finals' losses suggests.

In the salary cap-era, the advantage of any one club over another is so small that ease of things like ability to sign free-agents can tip the scales in one team's favor. And that's not tipping it in Canadian clubs' favor....

I think that the general preference of players to play for US-based teams is a factor (even more so with an increasing number of American players in the NHL), but I don't think the 7 consecutive losses in the Finals is the best way to study it.

And there are other factors that give (some) advantages - everything else being equal - to some teams over other teams.

So, any study should consider all the factors.

 

[Melrose Munch]

The media is the biggest problem.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Humans as a species are exceptionally good at identifying “patterns” in random data.

I think we're long passed the point of random data, or statistical noise. Likely something that started out the way (especially with the period beginning long after a period of a bunch of Canadian teams winning Cups with Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary collectively accounting for 8 out of 10 Cups from 1984-1993) but likely did morph into a "thing" (probably especially so the case post-salary cap). 30 straight tries though, when there are a good number of Canadian teams has a bunch of factors, but pure randomness alone wouldn't account for it.

Probability of Canadian NHL Teams Winning the Stanley Cup​

The calculated probability for the number of Stanley Cups Canadian NHL teams should have collectively won over the past 30 seasons is set forth below. There was a higher chance, based on weighted probability that Canadian teams would have won 15 cups, than 0 Cups. 6-7 Cups would have been the modal outcome.

• Probability for 0 Stanley Cups: 0.0005
• Probability for 1 Stanley Cup: 0.0042
• Probability for 2 Stanley Cups: 0.0176
• Probability for 3 Stanley Cups: 0.0477
• Probability for 4 Stanley Cups: 0.0934
• Probability for 5 Stanley Cups: 0.1407
• Probability for 6 Stanley Cups: 0.17
• Probability for 7 Stanley Cups: 0.169
• Probability for 8 Stanley Cups: 0.1408
• Probability for 9 Stanley Cups: 0.0998
• Probability for 10 Stanley Cups: 0.0607
• Probability for 11 Stanley Cups: 0.032
• Probability for 12 Stanley Cups: 0.0147
• Probability for 13 Stanley Cups: 0.0059
• Probability for 14 Stanley Cups: 0.0021
• Probability for 15 Stanley Cups: 0.0006
• Probability for 16 Stanley Cups: 0.0002
• Probability for 17-30 Stanley Cups: 0.0

 

[torontoblood]

Anaheim was a much better team than Ottawa in 2007. Sens were basically carried by the Pizza Line. No depth at all and you aren't winning any cups with Wade Redden as your #1 defensemen.

This too and they played against both pronger /niedermayer/Beauchemin.

 

[MadArcand]

I think we're long passed the point of random data, or statistical noise. Likely something that started out the way (especially with the period beginning long after a period of a bunch of Canadian teams winning Cups with Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary collectively accounting for 8 out of 10 Cups from 1984-1993) but likely did morph into a "thing" (probably especially so the case post-salary cap). 30 straight tries though, when there are a good number of Canadian teams has a bunch of factors, but pure randomness alone wouldn't account for it.

Probability of Canadian NHL Teams Winning the Stanley Cup​

The calculated probability for the number of Stanley Cups Canadian NHL teams should have collectively won over the past 30 seasons is set forth below. There was a higher chance, based on weighted probability that Canadian teams would have won 15 cups, than 0 Cups. 6-7 Cups would have been the modal outcome.

• Probability for 0 Stanley Cups: 0.0005
• Probability for 1 Stanley Cup: 0.0042
• Probability for 2 Stanley Cups: 0.0176
• Probability for 3 Stanley Cups: 0.0477
• Probability for 4 Stanley Cups: 0.0934
• Probability for 5 Stanley Cups: 0.1407
• Probability for 6 Stanley Cups: 0.17
• Probability for 7 Stanley Cups: 0.169
• Probability for 8 Stanley Cups: 0.1408
• Probability for 9 Stanley Cups: 0.0998
• Probability for 10 Stanley Cups: 0.0607
• Probability for 11 Stanley Cups: 0.032
• Probability for 12 Stanley Cups: 0.0147
• Probability for 13 Stanley Cups: 0.0059
• Probability for 14 Stanley Cups: 0.0021
• Probability for 15 Stanley Cups: 0.0006
• Probability for 16 Stanley Cups: 0.0002
• Probability for 17-30 Stanley Cups: 0.0

Well, no. You are obviously assuming here that all teams are equally likely to win the cup, but in what world was an Arizona or Montreal winning a cup with the same likelihood as Tampa or Boston? "7 losses" means nothing if most of the finalists were Cinderellas that had no business being a finalist in the first place.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Well, no. You are obviously assuming here that all teams are equally likely to win the cup, but in what world was an Arizona or Montreal winning a cup with the same likelihood as Tampa or Boston? "7 losses" means nothing if most of the finalists were Cinderellas that had no business being a finalist in the first place.

I think you missed my point, lol.

 

[reckoning]

I think we're long passed the point of random data, or statistical noise. Likely something that started out the way (especially with the period beginning long after a period of a bunch of Canadian teams winning Cups with Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary collectively accounting for 8 out of 10 Cups from 1984-1993) but likely did morph into a "thing" (probably especially so the case post-salary cap). 30 straight tries though, when there are a good number of Canadian teams has a bunch of factors, but pure randomness alone wouldn't account for it.

Probability of Canadian NHL Teams Winning the Stanley Cup​

The calculated probability for the number of Stanley Cups Canadian NHL teams should have collectively won over the past 30 seasons is set forth below. There was a higher chance, based on weighted probability that Canadian teams would have won 15 cups, than 0 Cups. 6-7 Cups would have been the modal outcome.

• Probability for 0 Stanley Cups: 0.0005
• Probability for 1 Stanley Cup: 0.0042
• Probability for 2 Stanley Cups: 0.0176
• Probability for 3 Stanley Cups: 0.0477
• Probability for 4 Stanley Cups: 0.0934
• Probability for 5 Stanley Cups: 0.1407
• Probability for 6 Stanley Cups: 0.17
• Probability for 7 Stanley Cups: 0.169
• Probability for 8 Stanley Cups: 0.1408
• Probability for 9 Stanley Cups: 0.0998
• Probability for 10 Stanley Cups: 0.0607
• Probability for 11 Stanley Cups: 0.032
• Probability for 12 Stanley Cups: 0.0147
• Probability for 13 Stanley Cups: 0.0059
• Probability for 14 Stanley Cups: 0.0021
• Probability for 15 Stanley Cups: 0.0006
• Probability for 16 Stanley Cups: 0.0002
• Probability for 17-30 Stanley Cups: 0.0

Thanks for providing those numbers, as I was curious what the odds were. But I still don't see it as something outside the realm of reasonable probability.

Everyone knows that the seven Canadian teams have not won a Cup in the last 30 years. But neither has Philadelphia, or Buffalo, or the Islanders, or San Jose. The Coyotes should be there too as they've been based in the U.S. for 27 of those 30 years. Nashville, Columbus and Minnesota have been around over 20 years and not won a Cup yet. I'm guessing the odds of none of those teams winning a Cup would be as high as none of the Canadian teams winning. It just happens like that sometimes.

The probability of Canadian teams winning 0 Stanley Cups of 0.0005 works out to about 2000-to-1. Sounds highly unlikely. Then again, the odds of Buffalo missing the playoffs 13 years in a row are over 8000-to-1, yet it happened.

 

[JianYang]

Aside from 2011, you could argue that all the canadian teams entered the final as underdogs.

 

[MadLuke]

The probability of Canadian teams winning 0 Stanley Cups of 0.0005 works out to about 2000-to-1. Sounds highly unlikely. Then again, the odds of Buffalo missing the playoffs 13 years in a row are over 8000-to-1, yet it happened.

The odd of a team missing the playoffs 13 years in a row are much higher than Buffalo in particular doing it (not sure if it is 100 time higher or something, but much higher and I think that the better way to look at a team missing the playoff 13 time in a row, any would have do for your example), but also this is the odds if everything being equal and bad management, high tax or cold Buffalo weather do not exist. Would there be a significant difference between Buffalo or Canada in power to attract player.

They are a short walk from Canada in one of the very well taxed jurisdiction of the world for a rich person, according to this:

New York Income Tax Calculator - SmartAsset

Find out how much you'll pay in New York state income taxes given your annual income. Customize using your filing status, deductions, exemptions and more.

smartasset.com

Single person at 7.5m start at 52.15% effective tax rates (not marginal, effective) before the tricks.

The coyotes are not a team that spend to the cap some years, they are far from odds as anyone else to win type, Canadians team spend to the max about every year, 2000-1 events do happen that is true, but that completely fair to assume this is not the case here, that a factor exist.

That Pronger did not stay in Edmonton for reasons that are inherent to some Canadian city could be true and that those same reason make it harder for Calgary-Edmonton-Winnipeg to win it than a California or Florida team. The Nordiques lefts for a reason (and without those would have had a good chance to win a cup in Canada), so did the Jets.

Vancouver is one of the most beautiful place, Toronto is the meca of hockey with tons of resource that got one of the biggest FA in the cap era if not the biggest, those 2 not winning are just a mix of things happen and Vancouver could very well win it soon and got close, the Leafs could win next year. Those 2 have probably way better odds to win a cup in the next 20 years than many US cities.

Montreal is probably an average destination, that was just not specially well run since Savard and a lot of the old brain left, when the dollars was low they did seem to cut spending a bit (Recchi-Damphousse for prospect-picks move could be seen as saving some) so it could have been a factor. But we can easily point to some decision that have nothing to do with their location of why they were not in the mix for long period of time, Koivu-Price injury and Roy/Turgeon mismanagement were not about being in Canada (I would guess the Leaf would be in that boat, just do not know as much about them).

Probability of Canadian NHL Teams Winning the Stanley Cup​

Not that it would move the numbers a lot but was this made with some Nordiques leave in 1995, Jets in 1996 and return in 2011

 

[JianYang]

The odd of a team missing the playoffs 13 years in a row are much higher than Buffalo doing it (not sure if it is 100 time higher or something, but much higher), but also this is the odds if everything being equal and bad management, high tax or cold Buffalo weather do not exist. Would there be a significant difference between Buffalo or Canada in power to attract player.

They are a short walk from Canada in one of the very well taxed jurisdiction of the world for a rich person, according to this:

New York Income Tax Calculator - SmartAsset

Find out how much you'll pay in New York state income taxes given your annual income. Customize using your filing status, deductions, exemptions and more.

smartasset.com

Single person at 7.5m start at 52.15% effective tax rates (not marginal, effective) before the tricks.

The coyotes are not a team that spend to the cap some years, they are far from odds as anyone else to win type, Canadians team spend to the max about every year, 2000-1 events do happen that is true, but that completely fair to assume this is not the case here, that a factor exist.

That Pronger did not stay in Edmonton for reasons that are inherent to some Canadian city could be true and that those same reason make it harder for Calgary-Edmonton-Winnipeg to win it than a California or Florida team. The Nordiques lefts for a reason (and without those would have had a good chance to win a cup in Canada), so did the Jets.

Vancouver is one of the most beautiful place, Toronto is the meca of hockey with tons of resource that got one of the biggest FA in the cap era if not the biggest, those 2 not winning are just a mix of things happen and Vancouver could very well win it soon and got close, the Leafs could win next year. Those 2 have probably way better odds to win a cup in the next 20 years than many US cities.

Montreal is probably an average destination, that was just not specially well run since Savard and a lot of the old brain left, when the dollars was low they did seem to cut spending a bit (Recchi-Damphousse for prospect-picks move could be seen as saving some) so it could have been a factor. But we can easily point to some decision that have nothing to do with their location of why they were not in the mix for long period of time, Koivu-Price injury and Roy/Turgeon mismanagement were not about being in Canada (I would guess the Leaf would be in that boat, just do not know as much about them).


Not that it would move the numbers a lot but was this made with some Nordiques leave in 1995, Jets in 1996 and return in 2011

Before the bergevin era, I don't think Montreal had much problem retaining ufas that they wanted to retain.

Perhaps an exception is souray but he had unique circumstances. Things didn't work out for souray that summer either. Regardless the Habs immediately replaced him on the ufa market with Roman hamrlik.

It's the external marquee ufas where they struggle. The biggest external ufa name they lured was prime Mike cammalleri which isn't a huge brand name.

 

[Iron Mike Sharpe]

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

View attachment 888147

Funny. A lack of Americans in the Panthers is surprising. A fully Canadian team lost to a team loaded with Europeans.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Not that it would move the numbers a lot but was this made with some Nordiques leave in 1995, Jets in 1996 and return in 2011

Yeah it’s waited probability based on number of Canadian teams per year, which ranges from 6-8, relative to the total number of teams.

 

[JianYang]

OK so the Leafs are the richest NHL franchise (as of 2023) worth $2.8 billion with a huge fanbase. The Canadiens are 3rd and the Oilers are 7th.

You'd think the NHL would want the Leafs to win a cup?

FYI the Panthers are 4th LAST

NHL franchise value by team 2023 | Statista.

I think the leafs are a matured cash cow but not alot of room for growth compared to large American markets.

If the NHL wants to make a significant breakthrough, their dream would be to somehow tap into those large American markets and turn them into mightier cash cows too.

To be clear, I'm not saying the nhl is rigging games. I'm just saying that this would be their dream.

 

[JianYang]

I've made many posts about this topic on the main board. Yes, generally speaking, tax rates are lower in the US than in Canada, but I don't see it as a huge difference because:

1. "Jock taxes" - some places tax athletes based on the games played in that jurisdiction, which helps to normalize the tax rates across teams.
2. Tax planning - some players can use various strategies to lower their tax burden. It appears that Auston Matthews, for example, pays substantially less in tax than most of his Toronto teammates, due to how he's structured his affairs.
3. RCA - this is a tool that can help high income Canadians (including professional athletes) defer their taxes. (In fact, it's so powerful that the NBA has banned Toronto Raptors players from using it).
4. Rate differences - the tax rates vary in each state and province. For example, rates for higher-tax US teams (ie Kings, Sharks, Ducks, Rangers, Islanders) aren't very different for lower-tax Canadian teams (ie Oilers, Flames).

I know this is a tangent, and I'm not suggesting that you're doing this, but I've seen a lot of people on the main boards dramatically exaggerate the difference in tax rates.

I agree that this factor has been exaggerated. I mean, it's not a non-issue but I think generally speaking, the intensity of the canadian markets and lack of privacy are even bigger detriments.

Anyways, I look at these as excuses more than anything. Yes there are certain challenges, but making sound management decisions for the big picture and hitting on draft picks are things that will have the biggest impact on cup prospects.

 

[solidmotion]

I've made many posts about this topic on the main board. Yes, generally speaking, tax rates are lower in the US than in Canada, but I don't see it as a huge difference because:

1. "Jock taxes" - some places tax athletes based on the games played in that jurisdiction, which helps to normalize the tax rates across teams.
2. Tax planning - some players can use various strategies to lower their tax burden. It appears that Auston Matthews, for example, pays substantially less in tax than most of his Toronto teammates, due to how he's structured his affairs.
3. RCA - this is a tool that can help high income Canadians (including professional athletes) defer their taxes. (In fact, it's so powerful that the NBA has banned Toronto Raptors players from using it).
4. Rate differences - the tax rates vary in each state and province. For example, rates for higher-tax US teams (ie Kings, Sharks, Ducks, Rangers, Islanders) aren't very different for lower-tax Canadian teams (ie Oilers, Flames).

I know this is a tangent, and I'm not suggesting that you're doing this, but I've seen a lot of people on the main boards dramatically exaggerate the difference in tax rates.

also, it's pretty rare that a top free agent becomes a key cog on a stanley cup winning team. i'm hard pressed to think of any since hossa in chicago and chara in boston. + probably the biggest free agent signing of the last few years was tavares in toronto. i imagine that this tax stuff isn't make-or-break for a lot of players even if there is some credence to it. and even then it doesn't come close to explaining why canadian teams haven't won the cup in 30 years. which has a lot more to do with random chance and a bit of mismanagement.

somebody mentioned that canadian teams won almost every cup between 1984 and 93... well edmonton, calgary and montreal were also the top 3 regular season teams in that span. in the last 30 years cumulatively the top canadian teams by points% are toronto and vancouver at 14th and 15th... i wouldn't expect them to win any cups with the kinds of teams they've been icing. vancouver in the early 2010s was really the only time a canadian team was a sustained contender in that span.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

If the NHL weren't run like a cartel and instead had no salary cap and no draft and relegation Canadian teams would be winning all the time.

The dumbasses who run Canadian teams would simply field a hugely expensive mediocre team.

 

[MadLuke]

also, it's pretty rare that a top free agent becomes a key cog on a stanley cup winning team. i'm hard pressed to think of any since hossa in chicago and chara in boston. + probably the biggest free agent signing of the last few years was tavares in toronto. i imagine that this tax stuff isn't make-or-break for a lot of players even if there is some credence to it. and even then it doesn't come close to explaining why canadian teams haven't won the cup in 30 years. which has a lot more to do with random chance and a bit of mismanagement.

It depend how extensive we talk about it, if we include player accepting to never become free agents or became and stayed with their teams, now it would be quite common I think.

Without free agency, maybe Nordiques stay, maybe they win.

Sakic was not a fully free agents I think, but him not leaving was a big reason the Avs won a second cup, would a non Toronto Canadian team paid or lost him ?
Fedorov not leaving the Wings, Ducks winning with Pronger, Dallas with Hull-Belfour those 2 where 2 great FA singing directly linked to the 1999 cup.

How to describe those 2002 wings, in the cap era made it rarer and more complicated, but the ability to keep them at good price seem easier in Florida than Chicago and higher, but that just an impression.

But it would match the general population if true and match common sense that California-Florida are quite nice place to live if you have the choice and will not live in the city you grew up anyway (and will travel by plane making distance from it a bit irrelevant), preference:

https://www.storagecafe.com/blog/state-to-state-moving-trends/

• Florida, Texas and North Carolina are the country’s top three states for net migration, Millennials favor the South, with Texas, Georgia and Florida

Who around say 2000 would have predicted (with climate change and other talk) that south would be that popular versus the north in the mids 2020s, making prediction about stuff like that even short range timeline seem nearly impossible and could reverse.

 

[OrrNumber4]

In 2005, Ron Wilson said that a Canadian team will never win the cup again. It was such a hyperbolic statement, but so prescient in hindsight...

 

[Crosby2010]

I can remember in the late 1990s around 1998 or so there was this panic that Canada hadn't had a team win a Cup in 5 years! The 1993 Canadiens sounded like such an ancient memory at that time, and yet they weren't. They are now though. I am not overly surprised that a Canadian team didn't win the Cup final in 7 tries since 1994, I am just surprised there has only been 7 in 31 years that have been in the final. So many times Ottawa could have gotten there, Toronto for sure was right on the doorstep. Even just statistically speaking there should be more than 7 times they get there in 31 years. 7/31 is the expected amount of wins, not appearances. 35 years since an all-Canadian Cup final, that probably should have happened since.

Either way, I agree the taxes are a big turn off for some players. Possibly the travel, Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg and Edmonton all have atrocious travel schedules. Not to mention the weather in those cities. Also, what is appealing to play in Winnipeg? Or the city alone?