RedHawkDown
still trying to trust the yzerplan
Because last year we were riding very high shooting % and PDO
24/25 Waivers/Rumors/TDL Thread.
- Thread starter Snuggs
- Start date
The NMC doesn't prevent a buyout, from what I understand. They can refuse to report to anyone who claims them, or from going to the minors, but they can still be placed on waivers for the purpose of a buyout.
I'm not a fan of it just because of the dead cap aspect.
I'm also not sure who we have in GR to call up. If not for injury, Mazur was probably the next candidate. Danielson could handle it, but I'm not sure it's ideal considering it's his first pro year and he's still adjusting to GR. Lombardi is hurt. Soderblom isn't exactly lighting it up down there. Nygaard, Buch, and ASP aren't options.
We're not in a great spot right now with the whole just throw a kid in there angle.
Ok
It's not just that we had more better offensive players?
I think we intentionally chose to surrender goals for better team defense and its just not worked out
I would like to know if those people, who always repeat how good our prospect pool is, have enough knowledge about all other teams prospects to actually back that stance.
I for one don’t have that knowledge, so I could only read articles about that, where journalists rank the teams, and assume they know enough.
What’s really become obvious for years is, that Dats and Z are actually our last great finds in the later rounds (5-7). Happens for other teams every few years.. but for us?
And even in the earlier rounds we’re selecting too many average guys, who don’t make an impact.
I for one don’t have that knowledge, so I could only read articles about that, where journalists rank the teams, and assume they know enough.
What’s really become obvious for years is, that Dats and Z are actually our last great finds in the later rounds (5-7). Happens for other teams every few years.. but for us?
And even in the earlier rounds we’re selecting too many average guys, who don’t make an impact.
Also 3 fewer shots per game compared to last year, on average. Volume down...% down. Can't score goals if you don't shoot the puck
What are sprong, fabbri, and perron doing this year? And I know folks are going to want to point to Walman and Ghost but the guy who took Walman's spot is Ed. And despite the career year Walman is having I would still take Ed in that spot.
Now, if Walman wasn't moved for whatever reason he was moved and we kept Ghost, could that have been an entertaining third pair? Maybe, though I'm not sure why we would believe we would get the same Walman that SJ is getting. We might have gotten the same Walman we saw the last four months of last season (4 points, 29 games, -4).
I don't disagree that we sacrificed some offensive talent to bring in some better defensive guys, but I also think we got a lot of luck our way last year, and we haven't gotten a lot of luck our way this year. We need better players so luck is a smaller variable.
cjm502
Holy Jumpin!
I became pretty interested in following the teams prospect pool in the mid 2000s, and was always pretty underwhelmed with what the Wings had in the cupboard. Its common for a teams fans to get hyped over their top prospects regardless of how bad the prospect pool is, but I have always tried to stay somewhat grounded. For me, the Wings current prospect pool is so far ahead of anything else they have had since I've been following prospects that its almost laughable. Now I don't expect Danielson to end up better then Larkin, and I don't think ASP will be taking the #1 RD spot from Seider, but if you take the 89 draft out of the equation I genuinely believe the Wings prospect pool may have more guys with a realistic shot at becoming regular NHLers then ever.I would like to know if those people, who always repeat how good our prospect pool is, have enough knowledge about all other teams prospects to actually back that stance.
I for one don’t have that knowledge, so I could only read articles about that, where journalists rank the teams, and assume they know enough.
What’s really become obvious for years is, that Dats and Z are actually our last great finds in the later rounds (5-7). Happens for other teams every few years.. but for us?
And even in the earlier rounds we’re selecting too many average guys, who don’t make an impact.
I will continue to pump up this current group of prospects and if I end up looking like a fool then so be it, but I think Yzerman will have an easy time filling out the roster from within over the next few years.
AlwaysSunnyInDetroit
i may or may not have been drunk when i said that
- Oct 1, 2021
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everyone keeps saying february last year but we won 7 out of 10 that month. in march we went 3 and 11
The Zermanator
In Yzerman We Trust
- Jan 21, 2013
- 3,531
- 1,553
I think you have unreasonable expectations, and they're setting you up for disappointment.
20+ years ago late round gems were far more common. Finding a diamond in the 6th round because nobody else scouted him (Datsyuk) just doesn't happen anymore. Scouting has become a well-oiled machine since then.
Other teams do not make great finds in rounds 5-7 every few years. Go back the last 10 years and you'll find less than 10 great finds (if that) in those rounds, spread across 30+ different teams.
Look up the likelihood that a drafted player has a meaningful NHL career. At the top end of the draft, it's a near certainty. Once you get to around pick #20, that likelihood starts to lower dramatically, and it only gets more pronounced the deeper you go in the draft. Hence what I referred to above where the vast majority of 5th-7th round picks never amount to anything in the NHL.
And not only are 2nd round and later picks far less likely to be impactful players, they tend to take a lot longer to get there too. They usually take several years to get to NHL level. If they were closer to that level to begin with, they wouldn't have been picked so late. So Yzerman's 2nd round and later picks from around 2022 to now have not had enough time to develop yet. There are still several players drafted from 2019-2021/22 with some potential and promise from those non-1st round picks.
2019: Johansson, Tuomisto
2020: Wallinder
2021: Mazur, Buium
2022: Buchelnikov, Lombardi
Yzerman has knocked it out of the park with his 1sts, I can't think of a single 1st round pick he's made that isn't looking really good right now. And there are several players picked in the 2nd and later rounds that still have potential to be quality role players, and some with potential for more than that (like Buchelnikov).
Drafting is not an area of concern with Yzerman IMO.
20+ years ago late round gems were far more common. Finding a diamond in the 6th round because nobody else scouted him (Datsyuk) just doesn't happen anymore. Scouting has become a well-oiled machine since then.
Other teams do not make great finds in rounds 5-7 every few years. Go back the last 10 years and you'll find less than 10 great finds (if that) in those rounds, spread across 30+ different teams.
And even in the earlier rounds we’re selecting too many average guys, who don’t make an impact.
Look up the likelihood that a drafted player has a meaningful NHL career. At the top end of the draft, it's a near certainty. Once you get to around pick #20, that likelihood starts to lower dramatically, and it only gets more pronounced the deeper you go in the draft. Hence what I referred to above where the vast majority of 5th-7th round picks never amount to anything in the NHL.
And not only are 2nd round and later picks far less likely to be impactful players, they tend to take a lot longer to get there too. They usually take several years to get to NHL level. If they were closer to that level to begin with, they wouldn't have been picked so late. So Yzerman's 2nd round and later picks from around 2022 to now have not had enough time to develop yet. There are still several players drafted from 2019-2021/22 with some potential and promise from those non-1st round picks.
2019: Johansson, Tuomisto
2020: Wallinder
2021: Mazur, Buium
2022: Buchelnikov, Lombardi
Yzerman has knocked it out of the park with his 1sts, I can't think of a single 1st round pick he's made that isn't looking really good right now. And there are several players picked in the 2nd and later rounds that still have potential to be quality role players, and some with potential for more than that (like Buchelnikov).
Drafting is not an area of concern with Yzerman IMO.
I would like to know if those people, who always repeat how good our prospect pool is, have enough knowledge about all other teams prospects to actually back that stance.
I for one don’t have that knowledge, so I could only read articles about that, where journalists rank the teams, and assume they know enough.
What’s really become obvious for years is, that Dats and Z are actually our last great finds in the later rounds (5-7). Happens for other teams every few years.. but for us?
And even in the earlier rounds we’re selecting too many average guys, who don’t make an impact.
Worth an examination if you have time.
The Zetterberg Era
Ball Hockey Sucks
Not a huge fan of the buyout, but if we have so much inflexibility we might have to look at what the Rangers are doing with a few guys.
Soderblom, a couple fliers on waivers from other teams. The stagnation through 30+ games on most guys except the core deserves a pretty big shake. If you play like replacement level players, then shuffling the deck isn’t as big of a deal to me.
Also move on guys you don’t believe in the system. If you cannot call anybody up that is another indictment on our front office.
19 for president
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2002
- 3,108
- 1,389
I agree that we definitely had some luck last year with the shooting percentage but I do think we lost a lot offensively as well.
Looking at the guys we lost. Perron provided a net presence/ physicality on the PP that we have not figured out how to replace. Sprong could and did score on his own from a lower line. We don't have a single guy in our bottom 6 that can do that now. Tank and Motte were not good replacements, but if Kane and Compher hadn't also taken a downturn from last year this would be less noticeable.
The big change is the difference in structure and personnel on defense. From a shooting perspective we went from having Ghost and Walman as guys that would consistently shoot with Seider, Ed, and Petry adding on. To having Petry as the only guy that will consistently shoot from the point. This is my biggest issue with Seider on the PP, everyone knows he won't shoot so we have zero threat from the point. This allows teams to put more pressure down low in blocking passing lanes. Last season we had a guy on every pair that was a threat now we basically have Petry and on occasion Ed. If the point isn't really even an option it makes it a lot easier to neutralize an offense.
Then we look at passing which is both a personnel and structure issue. One can definitely argue that Ed is an upgrade over Walman, but Ghost for any of our current 3rd pair guys was a major downgrade. We've compounded that downgrade by putting our only 2 good passes on one pair. Ed/Seider is an elite pair but it also means that for the other 35 minutes of the game we can barely complete a pass. Last year we had multiple pairs that had at least one guy that could complete a pass up ice Seider/Ghost, Seider/ Walman, 3rd Pair/Ghost, Ed/Petry. This gave us a much better breakout overall which as a team with smaller forwards suites us much better than trying to cycle the puck. We aren't built to be a cylce/ dump & chase kind of team.
This overall offensive downgrade might have been ok if we had picked up a couple of dmen to supplement a more defensive strategy but we didn't. If you could split Ed and Seider you'd at least allow one of them to have better offensive zone deployment and matchups. Instead we downgraded our offense from the back end, didn't effectively replace offense up front, saw a drop off in two key vets in Kane & Compher thus leading to an overall worse offensive and defensive team.
JediOrderPizza
Registered User
Too lazy to look up what disaster month it was. For my mental health I didn't wanna see a row of losses.
19 for president
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2002
- 3,108
- 1,389
I am also against buyouts for the most part unless they are in their last yea or two. Like one of Chia and Holl would both be good candidates after this season as we'd like have to do a large retainage to move them. Even Copp wouldn't be terrible as his extra years would only be -1.6mil. The only big contract we have coming up soon will be Ed, so we can retain or buyout a salary if the payout is only spread over an extra season. We also have so many entry level contracts coming up that it makes those hits a lot easier to replace.
Most of our guys appear to have a 10 team NTC, which I don't think would be that crazy to move if we were straight trying to dump them. A little trickier if you trying to do a player deal like the Rangers, as you are limiting your trade pool. I think we'd have interest in these guys if we held a bit of salary. Like Copp is overpaid at 5.6 but if we held 2.6 and got him down to 3 I think he'd be very attractive for a couple of seasons. He's a good 3rd line defensive center, he just isn't a 2nd line center.
Puck luck is definitely a big factor this year. But that’s going to happen when the opposing team gets more possession and shots on goal.
For me it clearly comes down to a failure in roster construction. Through the players they brought in and the systems they run, Yzerman and Co. have managed all risk out the game. And we’re left with a team that has no identity, no personality, no strengths. Just a bunch of average, low risk players
Ghost put up 60 points last year and is on pace for almost 70 this year. Walman paced for 15+ goals in both of his years here in Detroit and is on pace for 60 points this year. We replaced them with Gustafsson and Johansson who combined are on pace for less than 20 points
Sprong put up 43 points last year playing exclusively on the bottom two lines and the pp2. Fabbri was also in a similar role and scored 18 goals. We replaced them with Berggren and Motte who are on pace for a combined 25 points
That’s the main reason scoring as completely disappeared. We gutted our d and depth scoring for more low risk players. Yzerman has failed big time. Simple as that. Hopefully he learns from this offseason and fixes things
