You can't just add up point totals though, since not every player can get the same opportunity offensively. Koivunen has been getting 18 minutes a game like you said. He has one point at ES while he has 2 on the PP, one EN point, and one 6v5. There are quite a few bad team scorers who can put up point totals in the 50s in this era with that kind of usage. That's why there's a bigger difference in impact going from an 80 point player to a 60 point player than there is from a 60 to a 40.
It's about getting the most effectiveness from guys per minute deployed, relative to their contracts.
Koivunen may have not been the best example, for the reasons you mentioned. Sure.
Can just look at 2021 instead then and why the Pens won that division. Why was the offense #2 in the league?
They just had a really high median in the Forward group. They didn't need Crosby to carry like this year's 2.64. They had other guys blowing away their AAV's to cover for him producing fairly average top-six ES numbers.
Malkin only having 3 5v5 goals (and missing 23 games) was also covered by lesser guys having career year rates.
Carter's not on this list cuz of the game filter, but he's another one who blew away his AAV.
The PP was 4th, another extension of well deployed cap resulting in net-positive performances.
It was the same on the blue line. Letang had possibly his best all-rounder year. Definitely outplayed his AAV by at least a few mil.
Dumo, Ceci, Marino (925k), Matheson all outplayed theirs too.
Jarry was only .909. They didn't even need him to be excellent to win that division. Just average.
The reason they lost in the playoffs was largely because of Jarry, but also because of L1 disappearing and getting almost nothing from McCann, ERod and Kapanen.
So their performance relative to AAV's dropped all over the map.
I agree 2017 Vegas is the best example, but they also didn't win. Vegas didn't win the cup until after getting elite guys like Eichel and Pietrangelo. That first Vegas team had almost every skater in their prime/mid-20s. That is a lot more difficult to do naturally, and obviously they can't really be a blueprint for the Penguins since they are not an expansion team. It's not like they can just go out and grab the equivalent of Fleury, Theodore, Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault, etc.
Yes, but that doesn't happen if Eichel doesn't outperform his AAV. It's not enough to just be a superstar. You need the right price tag for your team too.
Pietrangelo also played up to his 8.8M.
It isn't a fair blueprint, that's true. But what I'm saying is that you can win a Cup with like three 2nd lines, and a 3rd line. You have three middle defensive level pairings. Then maybe average to slightly above average goaltending at good AAVs gets it done.
If you're able to keep running back this formula, you have a huge chance to win.
It's not a formula teams even really try, so we don't have much precedent. GMs were always taught to go after the powerful core and build from there.
But I believe it can be done, with smart management. I think it's a huge strength to have enough guys who can cover for high-end players disappearing at critical times. You just get someone else stepping up every night, on rotation...much like the 2021 regular season Pens.
