Salary Cap: 24-'25 Salary Thread: Crosbicles Volume MMXXVII: Retool over! Time to go for a cup in 2026!

[DesertedPenguin]

I just hope there is a good thoughtful balance on how to use the draft capital. I know the thought is to use some of it on young players for now, but I don't want them to go overboard. I would rather they start trading a handful of the prospects we have instead. Like I'd rather trade Bemstrom or Puustinen instead of a 2nd. I might prefer to trade Poulin instead of a 3rd.

Players like Bemstrom and Puustinen have minimal value. Second round picks are far more attractive to teams.

 

[BobCole]

This team is so, so, so far away. I think each of the bolded positions require upgrading:

Rakell - Crosby - Rust
Hayes - Malkin - Bemstrom
Dewar - Novak - Tomasino
Imama - Lizotte - Acciari

Shea - Letang
Grzelcyk - Karlsson
Kolyachook - Timmins

Nedeljkovic
Blomqvist

That's 7 of 12 forwards, 4 of 6 dmen, and both goalies.

It's not unrealistic to say it will take 7-10 years until this team is competitive again.

 

[Pancakes]

This team is so, so, so far away. I think each of the bolded positions require upgrading:

Rakell - Crosby - Rust
Hayes - Malkin - Bemstrom
Dewar - Novak - Tomasino
Imama - Lizotte - Acciari

Shea - Letang
Grzelcyk - Karlsson
Kolyachook - Timmins

Nedeljkovic
Blomqvist

That's 7 of 12 forwards, 4 of 6 dmen, and both goalies.

It's not unrealistic to say it will take 7-10 years until this team is competitive again.

Kolyachook....what he did....there was not one guy close to do something. Maybe Maxim Talbot at the end. With five second left. Pffft.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Sullivan is the coach, Dubas is the GM, FSG owns the team and they're going to try to compete again before Sid retires. These are facts and they are unlikely to change, so complaining about them is like yelling at the sky. Pointless.

Id rather consider what it would take to pull off this plan and that's going to take a top line F and LD. Sure, not everyone will be willing to sign here, and we'll need to pay a premium for guys, but it's still Pittsburgh and it's still Sid. We didn't suddenly become Columbus, and even there they managed to sign Johnny Gadreau, God rest him. This isn't as bleak as you claim.

Dubas shouldn't be GM, he's better at his other job but has done a decent enough job in a role FSG forced him into.

FSG is f***ing garbage. f*** them.

Sullivan is absolute f***ing garbage, f*** him and his entire bloodline until they're wiped out by the eventual asteroid that ends us all. f*** the Sullivan's.

There's no "future" with Sullivan. There's only darkness.

 

[Turin]

This team is so, so, so far away. I think each of the bolded positions require upgrading:

Rakell - Crosby - Rust
Hayes - Malkin - Bemstrom
Dewar - Novak - Tomasino
Imama - Lizotte - Acciari

Shea - Letang
Grzelcyk - Karlsson
Kolyachook - Timmins

Nedeljkovic
Blomqvist

That's 7 of 12 forwards, 4 of 6 dmen, and both goalies.

It's not unrealistic to say it will take 7-10 years until this team is competitive again.

Novak and Lizotte is fine. A few of those forwards will be replaced by WBS players in the next year or so. If they sign/draft impact players this year it makes those other depressions in the lineup less.. depressed.

 

[DesertPenguin]

This team is so, so, so far away. I think each of the bolded positions require upgrading:

Rakell - Crosby - Rust
Hayes - Malkin - Bemstrom
Dewar - Novak - Tomasino
Imama - Lizotte - Acciari

Shea - Letang
Grzelcyk - Karlsson
Kolyachook - Timmins

Nedeljkovic
Blomqvist

That's 7 of 12 forwards, 4 of 6 dmen, and both goalies.

It's not unrealistic to say it will take 7-10 years until this team is competitive again.

Too pessimistic. We've got four forwards in WBS right now trending towards being NHL players by this time next year, if not sooner. Hayes and Dewar are fine on the 4th line, they're just too high in the lineup. Lizotte is solid. Novak too. So I think you fill one F spot with a WBS forward, another in free agency or trade. Keep the pipeline flowing and push more players out of the lineup when ready.

On D, definitely more work to do, but not awfuk. Letang and Karlsson can still play. Koly and Timmons on the 3rd pair is fine. Pickering looks like a viable #4D next year, so that just leaves gaping hole at top pair LD. Needs to be a defensively responsive guy who can cover for Letang or Karlsson, not a high scorer. Those are easier and cheaper to acquire.

In goal, im not sure how it sorts out but I think we've got the answer in house already. Ned keeps the seat warm till Blom or Murashov is ready to lead. Nothing needed there but time and a little luck in their development.

So again, go get me a top pair D and a top 6 F and we're gonna be way better next season.

 

[BobCole]

Too pessimistic. We've got four forwards in WBS right now trending towards being NHL players by this time next year, if not sooner. Hayes and Dewar are fine on the 4th line, they're just too high in the lineup. Lizotte is solid. Novak too. So I think you fill one F spot with a WBS forward, another in free agency or trade. Keep the pipeline flowing and push more players out of the lineup when ready.

On D, definitely more work to do, but not awfuk. Letang and Karlsson can still play. Koly and Timmons on the 3rd pair is fine. Pickering looks like a viable #4D next year, so that just leaves gaping hole at top pair LD. Needs to be a defensively responsive guy who can cover for Letang or Karlsson, not a high scorer. Those are easier and cheaper to acquire.

In goal, im not sure how it sorts out but I think we've got the answer in house already. Ned keeps the seat warm till Blom or Murashov is ready to lead. Nothing needed there but time and a little luck in their development.

So again, go get me a top pair D and a top 6 F and we're gonna be way better next season.

To clarify, I wasn't saying all of my original mentions were "bad" in a vacuum, just that they were playing above where they should be, so I agree with some of what you say here.

I still maintain that we need at least 3 upgrades on the wing, 3 on defense, and a starting goalie, at minimum. That's a lot of work

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have 1 "future" lineup, but it's based on the assumption that this team will try to compete again with Crosby still here in the 2027-2028 timeframe. If you think this team could possibly be good again before Crosby retires, I think you have a decent basis for a forward group with:

Rakell-Crosby-Rust
XXXX-XXXX-Koivunen
McGroarty-Novak-Tomasino

You still need significant additions to L2, but you have a L1 and L3 there. The defense needs a significant amount of work though, that involves both trading Karlsson and either trading Letang or demoting him to a 3rd pair role.

If you're talking more long-term than 2027-2028, I think it's pointless to try to project a lineup. So much is going to change with this team between now and 2030 that it's impossible to predict who will be on the team and who won't be on the team by then.

 

[orby]

I think the Pens have a lot of legitimately interesting prospects in the system who are close to NHL ready, but if they are looking to avert a full on rebuild and compete again before Sid retired, they had better hope they can attract a legitimate top 6 center, winger, and first pairing defenseman in free agency...at minimum. I don't see it happening. I am focusing on Crosby's quest through the record books rather than the team itself at this point.

 

[IcedCapp]

Even if we delay the rebuild 2 years for the core, 7-10 years seems wayyyyy too pessimistic

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

7-10 more years of rebuild on top of another 7+ prior to that of playoff one-and-dones and flat out no-shows would be a pretty huge failure on multiple levels, yeah.

I know we've had it good and that warps perception a bit... there are the Buffalos of the world, after all. I suppose it's possible but holy shit that would be a truly incredible stretch of futility particularly right off the heels of so much success. I feel like the league is so much different now than it was the last time the Penguins were truly bad, too. Admitted outliers aside... it's kinda hard to be awful for too long the way the league is set up, now.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Gonna need a lot of luck on top of a shift in approach more geared toward scouting, drafting and development.

I think like, absolute best case scenario is this team jumps a few spots and lands Misa. They trade Rakell/Rust and EK this summer and recoup two 1sts and prospects. Get lucky next year and win the McKenna sweepstakes. Geno retires, Letang goes LTIRetirement, You throw a max contract at McDavid in FA in 2026-27.

McKenna-McDavid-???
Misa-Sid-???
McG-Bear-Koivunen
???

Chychrun-Brunicke
Pickering-???
Kolya-???

Murashov
Blomqvist

Think that's the best skeleton roster, with way too much shit falling into place perfectly for it to be any kind of realistic.

It might be a really, really long time. You'd hate for it to be another 7+ years on top of the bullshit that's been going on since 2020 at the least, but it might. /shrug

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I WOULD say that even the truly pathetic XGen Penguins didn't even take nearly that long to rebuild but I mean... they got monumentally lucky within a very short span of time. Unlikely to fall into place that way again maybe like... ever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think you have to have downright terrible management to not be able to rebuild in a 4-6 year window. Even the Oilers, who had arguably the worst management of the 2010s, still only took 7 years to go from first bottoming out (62 points in 2009-2010) to making the playoffs (103 points in 82 games in 2016-2017). Expecting this team to take a 10+ year rebuild is just expecting them to be Buffalo 2.0.

A reasonable expectation for this team being able to return to contention is 2030-2031 IMO. It's almost definitely after Crosby's time, but it's probably not going to be more than 5 or 6 years from today if they're not really stupid about it.

It largely depends on how smart this team is about selling off assets. The Sharks first really became "bad" in 2019-2020, but they didn't really trade off their first significant player off the roster until the 2022 off-season (Burns). They sold a bit, mostly from pending UFAs, but they didn't really start to truly blow shit up until 2022.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

it is funny seeing people pencil in young players next year. You know Sully and Dubas will go dumpster diving on day one of free agency to find players no one else wants.

Then flip em for 2nds next deadline

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The Oilers also ended up with McDavid and Draisaitl though. Those are two pretty exceptionally lucky picks.

I'm not familiar with Carolina's down years, but they seem to be near the top of the pack when it comes to scouting, drafting and development. Even so, I still don't think they have the offensive punch that teams usually need to challenge for a Cup.

You're basically starting from a barren prospect cupboard, where the top guys are likely middle 6 depth pieces realistically speaking. Short of this team somehow becoming a FA hotspot and guys worth chasing making it to FA, they're gonna have a grueling road ahead of them. And we still have two more years of suspended animation while we all wait for Sid to get his final shot at Olympic gold before the rebuild genuinely begins.

 

[Empoleon8771]

IMO the Penguins right now are in the position of the 2021 Sharks, which is actually a funny comparison because the Sharks the year before lost their 1st rounder due to the initial Karlsson trade (ended up #3 overall) just like the Penguins did. They're a bad team but not truly horrendous, with the Sharks picking #7 overall in 2021 and #11 overall in 2022. They really bottomed out in 2022-2023, where they dropped from 77 points to 60 points and ended up picking top-5 since. That's when they started getting more aggressive with selling stuff off, starting with that Burns deal in the 2022 off-season.

The Penguins suck now, but they're probably another year or two off from truly competing for #1 picks (outside of winning a draft lottery). They'll likely be sitting in the 5-10 range in the next 2 drafts and then be sitting top-5 in the next 3 or 4 drafts after that, unless they hit on their earlier picks and shave a year or two off of that. At that point, they should have the core pieces to start to build a contending team, assuming they don't screw it up. If you need more than that, you're doing a shitty job at rebuilding. The Sharks right now are at a point where they have maybe 1 more bad season before people start saying their rebuild is bad.

 

[Andy99]

I WOULD say that even the truly pathetic XGen Penguins didn't even take nearly that long to rebuild but I mean... they got monumentally lucky within a very short span of time. Unlikely to fall into place that way again maybe like... ever.

Doesn’t hurt to try again lol…this team needs to learn to lose even more…

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Oilers also ended up with McDavid and Draisaitl though. Those are two pretty exceptionally lucky picks.

McDavid yes because he's a generational talent, but Draisaitl not really. If you're picking top-7 6 years in a row, statistically you should be hitting on a Draisaitl caliber player. They got lucky with McDavid, Draisaitl is just what you statistically expect to get after drafting that high for that many years.

Most teams picking very high very often tend to hit at about that rate. Buffalo had a top-10 pick for 10 drafts in a row and hit on Dahlin and Eichel. San Jose was supposed to be picking in the top-11 in 5 drafts and they hit on Celebrini, and they would have been in a position to get Stutzle if not for that disastrous EK trade. Maybe not full blown Draisaitl level, but you should be hitting on an Eichel/Dahlin/Celebrini/Kane/Stutzle/ect caliber player about once every 4-5 years.

I'd argue the odds that a "good" drafting team would be at would be:

-Generational player (McDavid/Crosby/Ovi level): Once every 10 drafts picking top-8
-Elite player (Malkin/Draisaitl/Kane level): Once every 4 drafts picking top-8
-Core player (Ehlers/Reinhart/Svechnikov level): Once every 3 drafts picking top-8
-Dud (so either a bust or less than a core player): roughly once every 3 drafts picking top-8.

 

[IcedCapp]

I think there are a few things we should take away from the Edmonton / buffalo/ detroits of the world:

1) Losing forever and ever doesn’t help you rebuild. You get assets, but assets don’t win games. You gotta draft well and be smart In UFA.

2) a lot of luck involved on who’s in the draft when you suck. Look at the NBA, if the Hawks got the #1 pick in 23 or 25, they’re getting either a generational or a can’t miss guy. Instead they got Zach Risacher.

If we need to lose for a decade to rebuild, it is due to utter incompetence

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

McDavid yes because he's a generational talent, but Draisaitl not really. If you're picking top-7 6 years in a row, statistically you should be hitting on a Draisaitl caliber player.

They got lucky with McDavid, Draisaitl is just what you statistically expect to get after drafting that high for that many years.

I don't think you can count on finding a Draisaitl tbh. He's a 1st overall in every draft that doesn't have a bona fide generational talent like Sid, Ovechkin, or McDavid. He's a genuinely exceptional player, a franchise cornerstone type guy. They got really, really lucky with him panning out the way he did.

-edit- Just saw your edit. Yeah, we basically agree.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think there are a few things we should take away from the Edmonton / buffalo/ detroits of the world:

1) Losing forever and ever doesn’t help you rebuild. You get assets, but assets don’t win games. You gotta draft well and be smart In UFA.

2) a lot of luck involved on who’s in the draft when you suck. Look at the NBA, if the Hawks got the #1 pick in 23 or 25, they’re getting either a generational or a can’t miss guy. Instead they got Zach Risacher.

If we need to lose for a decade to rebuild, it is due to utter incompetence

Yeah, as much as we're scoreboard watching for this draft's pick, there are two genuine superstar talents in the next two drafts. I know this team says it wants to retool quickly, but losing/lucking your way into one or both of McKenna and Dupont sets things up long term that much better. If they hit their ceilings, that's an elite line winger and/or #1 blueliner crossed off the list.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Alright, if at least some of us are in agreement that we need a top 6 F, C preferred, and a lop line LD, who are you targeting? There's wings going to UFA (Marner, Ehlers, Boeser, in that order) but not much at C. Maybe you try to pry Zegras from ANA? Or maybe you cross your fingers that we get to about 4th in the draft lottery, it falls for us and we get one there.

On D, go fish. Nothing in UFA unless you think Chychrun or Proverov are it, and I'm not sure I do. Byram is probably available from BUF but we don't have the assets that would interest BUF. Need to target a deep defensive team with a young kid blocked from rising, and either get the blocked player or the one who's blocking him.

 

[66-30-33]

Next time Pens are competitive can we have AI as our coach?

 

[Andy99]

Next time Pens are competitive can we have AI as our coach?

AI is our coach right now…Sullivan is basically a bot …