Salary Cap: '24-'25 Salary Thread: Crosbicles Volume MMXXVI: Sid is Still Goat

[Kasperi kapanen]

Except he had the same kind of season in 2023.

How bout last season?

 

[Turin]

How bout last season?

So that's 2 out of 3. The one season in the middle where the Pens had a historically bad powerplay. So not what I would call "no chance."

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

You don't need a crystal ball to say that a guy shooting 6% above his career average will most likely regress back to his norm.

Rakell is at his peak value right now. If the offers aren't good for him now, they'll never be good for him. And even beyond all of that, what does keeping him accomplish?

You are presenting this as a fact when it is not one.

No one knows. Dubas is (rightfully) going to let the market speak to the value of his player and make a decision based on that. He is in a position to wait for what he wants instead of getting impatient.

I manage and trade assets for a living- you do not want to be a forced seller or buyer. That’s when valuations get thrown off out of desparation.

 

[cygnus47]

His values at its highest why didn’t you trade him for the next Sam Poulin?!

Couldn’t have put it better.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

No idea why people are hesitant to take advantage of a career year by a 32 year old in a seller's market with the Pens being a basement dweller. It's a no-brainer, man.

I don't care if he might be able to get value down the road. He can get value now. He's arguably the most valuable forward available.

 

[Ulf5]

I'm not "this place" and I don't "constantly bitch about not having young talent."

Clang and a 2nd is pretty close to a late first.


Would need to be heavy a +

Damn heavy ++

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let's take a step back on the value discussion a bit for Rakell, I have a question on Rakell: what exactly does keeping him accomplish? Keeping him isn't going to make the team good in the short term, as evidence with how this year is going. He's having the best season of his career right now, so it's extremely unlikely he's somehow going to have more value in the future. And even if he does, what are the chances it would substantially increase his value?

Right now, he's having a career year in a seller's market where there is pretty much no other top-6 wingers of his caliber available. The only rentals top-9 wingers available are Boeser, Zucker and Palmieri. The only wingers with term I've seen mentioned are Tuch. This is as good of a position the Penguins could possibly be in to cash in on Rakell's value. So why keep him? How does keeping Rakell help the team going forward? It doesn't. Playing alongside Crosby and putting up points as this team is finishing 27th in the NHL doesn't help them get good again.

The only way keeping him makes any sense is if he was at least fairly likely to bring back more in the future, but I don't think you can reasonably argue that. Sure, we don't know exactly what Dubas is being offered, but nothing in the current situations makes me believe that Rakell could get a better return by waiting. And the risk with waiting is far greater than the potential reward with waiting.

 

[Turin]

No idea why people are hesitant to take advantage of a career year by a 32 year old in a seller's market with the Pens being a basement dweller. It's a no-brainer, man.

I don't care if he might be able to get value down the road. He can get value now. He's arguably the most valuable forward available.

I want to take advantage of his year in a sellers market. Which is why being perfectly content with getting a comparable package to Trent Fredric is dumb. There's not that much difference between a 2nd and a late 1st.

 

[SEALBound]

No I just think you shouldn't give away players for pennies on the dollar because that's a good way to be a terrible GM. He's literally not going anyway, and if anything he could increase his value next year by having less term + showing this year wasn't a fluke and that his 2024 season was the real outlier. The Pens are going to be bad for a little while yet unless something miraculous happens, a prospect who won't play until the 2029 season won't be that important to the rebuild in the grand scope of things.


His normal level with Pittsburgh is closer to what he is now than what he was last year, playing on a team with a historically bad powerplay.

I mean, it's been reported quite often that the org is split on whether or not to move him and in order to move him, they need a significant "blow your socks off" offer. So I would be confident suggesting that if they do pull the trigger on trading him, the return is at the upper level of his value (which the GMs in the league would be a much better judge of vs us on this message board who do nothing but assign arbitrary value to guys).

I don't think a trade like a 2nd+5th round prospect is made and Dubas comes out and says "welp, we didn't get what we wanted but we just had to move him...".

 

[Turin]

You are presenting this as a fact when it is not one.

No one knows. Dubas is (rightfully) going to let the market speak to the value of his player and make a decision based on that. He is in a position to wait for what he wants instead of getting impatient.

I manage and trade assets for a living- you do not want to be a forced seller or buyer. That’s when valuations get thrown off out of desparation.

Likewise, I am a big-time trader on uh, Facebook marketplace and when Raj wants your TV for 30% of what you're asking, you don't just give it to him to say that you now have 40 dollars today and should be happy since you could use the money.

 

[OnMyOwn]

I’m still in the “hold out for a lot” or keep him crowd. He’s cheap enough and has years remaining. Should get more than a rental…wait for it.

 

[vodeni]

tehe i think hes cute

He is running for a mayor of Pittsburgh, or is that his twin

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I want to take advantage of his year in a sellers market. Which is why being perfectly content with getting a comparable package to Trent Fredric is dumb. There's not that much difference between a 2nd and a late 1st.

That’s not the point being argued at all, the problem is it seems like Dubas wants the moon and stars from Rakell or no trade.

That is risky asset management for a 32yo winger who has a history of being streaky. He could repeat his year next season, but it is much more likely he declines. So a team in our position should t be taking that risk.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You are presenting this as a fact when it is not one.

No one knows. Dubas is (rightfully) going to let the market speak to the value of his player and make a decision based on that. He is in a position to wait for what he wants instead of getting impatient.

I manage and trade assets for a living- you do not want to be a forced seller or buyer. That’s when valuations get thrown off out of desparation.

It's more likely true than not. This is essentially a perfect storm situation to get value for Rakell, everything is aligning in a way for the Penguins to get the best value they can get. It is not very likely that everything aligns again in the future for Rakell to have the kind of value he has now.

So yeah, I think it's extremely easy to justify saying "we'll take the best offer we can get right now". If you want to argue not the TDL, the draft is the absolute latest to justify doing that. Holding onto him for any longer than that would be a mistake and would most likely be Dubas overplaying his hand (or just making a bad decision).

 

[SEALBound]

I want to take advantage of his year in a sellers market. Which is why being perfectly content with getting a comparable package to Trent Fredric is dumb. There's not that much difference between a 2nd and a late 1st.

Given the 12 month bitch fest of a few special ed individuals here, there is a HUGE difference between an early 2nd and a late 1st.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Let's take a step back on the value discussion a bit for Rakell, I have a question on Rakell: what exactly does keeping him accomplish?

If the return is bad-

useful NHL player for 3 years at fair cap hit with residual trade value as cap rises significantly over course of his contract

vs pick that yields nothing.

The only way keeping him makes any sense is if he was at least fairly likely to bring back more in the future, but I don't think you can reasonably argue that. Sure, we don't know exactly what Dubas is being offered, but nothing in the current situations makes me believe that Rakell could get a better return by waiting. And the risk with waiting is far greater than the potential reward with waiting.

IMO you are thinking about this in 1s and 0s.

A motivation to not move him could be— Pens are DDing this draft. KD and scouts may simply not like prospects projected to go in 20-40 range. Maybe a really late first isn’t enough to move Rakell.

Maybe a prospect they do like falls on draft day and they make a deal then.

Maybe the scouts really really love the 2026 draft and they’re willing to take the risk of holding him and possibly getting a 1st in that draft— because if the worst happens and he falls off they think a 2026 2nd is just as good as a late first in 2025.

Maybe Rakell doesn’t want to uproot his wife at the moment and blocked the 10 playoff teams most likely to deal for him.

Theres a million different scenarios here where it’s misleading to say “now or never”.

The best outcome is a great trade right now, sure. But there shouldn’t be a rush to get there. It may not be in the cards.

 

[SEALBound]

Also, I don't think Rakell's "peak value" is necessarily at the TDL this year. Once the new cap comes out and guys fall off payrolls, it opens up a lot more possibilities to move him. Given the good value contract he has, I think there would be plenty of suiters. I don't think a team would be willing to pay that much less (if at all) in the off-season for him.

I will contend that his peak value is between now and the beginning of next year.

 

[Andy99]

Also, I don't think Rakell's "peak value" is necessarily at the TDL this year. Once the new cap comes out and guys fall off payrolls, it opens up a lot more possibilities to move him. Given the good value contract he has, I think there would be plenty of suiters. I don't think a team would be willing to pay that much less (if at all) in the off-season for him.

I will contend that his peak value is between now and the beginning of next year.

I mean if his good season continues, he needs to be moved at some time before the start of the season…otherwise it’s a terrible fail

 

[Empoleon8771]

If the return is bad-

useful NHL player for 3 years at fair cap hit with residual trade value as cap rises significantly over course of his contract

vs pick that yields nothing.

Again, if the return for Rakell is bad now, why would we assume it would be any better in the future? If Rakell can't get a good return now with everything going for him, it's most likely he can never get a good return. The market right now is set up to basically maximize Rakell's value. There really isn't much you can do to make a more optimized market for the Penguins selling Rakell than what they have right now.

A useful NHLer at a fair cap hit doesn't offer the Penguins anything because they suck. All he can realistically offer is what he'd bring back in a trade, and his situation is pretty much that he's at his maximum value right now or before the draft.

 

[Turin]

That’s not the point being argued at all, the problem is it seems like Dubas wants the moon and stars from Rakell or no trade.

That is risky asset management for a 32yo winger who has a history of being streaky. He could repeat his year next season, but it is much more likely he declines. So a team in our position should t be taking that risk.

There’s always a risk. So what’s the big risk? That they’ll have to trade him for a 2nd instead of a late first in a year or two? Who cares? Try to leverage the fact that he’s the best forward on the market.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There’s always a risk. So what’s the big risk? That they’ll have to trade him for a 2nd instead of a late first in a year or two? Who cares? Try to leverage the fact that he’s the best forward on the market.

What does keeping him accomplish?

You're saying that they may only get a 2nd instead of a 1st is no big risk, what is the big gain offered by keeping Rakell?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I want to take advantage of his year in a sellers market. Which is why being perfectly content with getting a comparable package to Trent Fredric is dumb. There's not that much difference between a 2nd and a late 1st.

Why is Fredric even relevant to this discussion? Rakell has twice as many goals as that plug has points. Granlund and a throw-in Ceci just got a 1st and a 3rd. Rakell's very likely getting a 1st+prospect. You're not going to get some blockbuster return for a 32 year old who has averaged like 23 goals a season for the past ~475GP.

What's the risk you're so desperately trying to avoid here? Selling low? How do you think trading the guy who's having a career year at 32 is selling low? Sid not having a winger? Load up a Sid-Geno +1 line--this team hasn't had depth in half a decade anyway.

I just don't get it.

 

[SEALBound]

I mean if his good season continues, he needs to be moved at some time before the start of the season…otherwise it’s a terrible fail

Correct. That's what I said, lol.

Devils Advocate though - that's only if they want to. The team may be willing to give up a bit in value to keep him with Sid. Not unlike Rust. We know it's better to trade those two out in terms of the future and the rebuild but the org is willing to hang on to Rust despite the value he could bring back. Doesn't mean I agree with it though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Correct. That's what I said, lol.

Devils Advocate though - that's only if they want to. The team may be willing to give up a bit in value to keep him with Sid. Not unlike Rust. We know it's better to trade those two out in terms of the future and the rebuild but the org is willing to hang on to Rust despite the value he could bring back. Doesn't mean I agree with it though.

They'd be incredibly dumb to do that.

Play Sid and Geno together if you're so worried about Crosby putting up points. If you're not going to make the best moves for the long-term of the franchise, step down and find someone who will.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

There’s always a risk. So what’s the big risk? That they’ll have to trade him for a 2nd instead of a late first in a year or two? Who cares? Try to leverage the fact that he’s the best forward on the market.

A 1st+ potentially this deadline or risk it it and potentially end up with nothing… There is no point holding on to him AT ALL.