24-25 Cap Outlook

[acrobaticgoalie]

I could see Tavares pulling a Spezza and taking a huge discount to help the team. Maybe not league min discount but maybe like 3.5-4M x 3-4 yrs.

He's running out of time like Spezza was and if he really wants to win a cup with his hometown team, I could see him doing it. It's not like he's hurting for money. His estimate career earnings is 95M. That's probably without his endorsements. That's already more than what Spezza had made in his career by 39.

 

[DuklaNation]

If there was no hard cap, what would the Leafs salary budget be? I'd guess $150M+

This drive to a 32 team league has placed a strict growth limit on the cap for WAY TOO long now. NHL needs to introduce a soft cap with luxury tax penalties. Why give away free revenue sharing for mediocre returns? How many more years is this going to carry on? Southern Ontario and several other markets are subsidizing this league.

This experiment needs to end now.

 

[Sypher04]

The fact that Tavares should go way down, or could be walked away from entirely, is a huge part of the reason I say get Willy re-signed (obviously within reason) and deal with the short term cap pain.

 

[TMLAM34]

The fact that Tavares should go way down, or could be walked away from entirely, is a huge part of the reason I say get Willy re-signed (obviously within reason) and deal with the short term cap pain.

It’s really only 1 year (after this season) we’d be in cap hell (if we haven’t already been in it) and then we can figure out what to do with JT. Definitely worth it over loosing Willy.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Fair enough. Feels steep and too long to me at 35, but ppg is ppg, hypothetically. I don't think he still will be. Hope so.

Definitely non-35+ in whatever hypothetical scenario in case he needs to do a solid and take a special assistant to gm job lol..

I guess I should have made a Taveres thread, not a next year cap thread..

He barely made ppg once in the last four seasons, and that was mainly thanks to the PP, which accounted for half his points!

This year he'll probably be 3C.

I don't see him getting any more than a couple of years at $3M, or maybe a bit more if he goes elsewhere. Best for all concerned if he retires and becomes a faceoff coach, so he may still get his name on the Cup.

Yes, this has all been hashed, rehashed, and dumpstered in a couple of other threads, but that's the way it goes.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Evilhomer]

Nylander, Bertuzzi, Domi and Samsonov will be resigned. The rest will be let go.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

We are screwed heavily in 2025

2026 Tavares will want 8-9M so will need to find a 2C

Funny thing is, Tavares can ask for whatever the hell he wants...doesn't mean we need to give it to him. Anything over $5-6M for a 35+ year old JT is madness

 

[The Iceman]

JT will not want to pick up and move his family,
Leafs will for once have the bargaining edge and I fully expect a 3 x $3 to 4 million deal to make him a popular and loved player.

Maybe dreaming in technicolour but I do believe something similar will happen to help JT bring a Cup home.

 

[cipher]

I and others have mentioned it before, sometimes in jest, but if I'm Treveling I'm taking a serious run at McDavid. This means once Tavares 11M comes off the books he isn't resigned unless he's looking to stay with the Leafs for a Spezza like 1-2M. You use the Tavares money, along with cap increases/player trades, the following year to offer McDavid 14-15M per year.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I and others have mentioned it before, sometimes in jest, but if I'm Treveling I'm taking a serious run at McDavid. This means once Tavares 11M comes off the books he isn't resigned unless he's looking to stay with the Leafs for a Spezza like 1-2M. You use the Tavares money, along with cap increases/player trades, the following year to offer McDavid 14-15M per year.

If we do that, we'll have to lose one of Matty, Mitch, or Willy, or be in the same lopsided cap allocation we're in now.

In fact, if we trade Willy and keep McD, Matty, and Mitch, we're still looking at about $40M for three forwards. At an estimated cap of $92M, that's 43.5% for three players, compared to the 48.5% this year for four.

 

[Menzinger]

If we do that, we'll have to lose one of Matty, Mitch, or Willy, or be in the same lopsided cap allocation we're in now.

In fact, if we trade Willy and keep McD, Matty, and Mitch, we're still looking at about $40M for three forwards. At an estimated cap of $92M, that's 43.5% for three players, compared to the 48.5% this year for four.

One of the big three would almost certainly have to go if they want to seriously bring in McDavid. And potentially one of the big two.... but that would be for Pridhim to solve lol

 

[Menzinger]

Edit:

 

[cipher]

If we do that, we'll have to lose one of Matty, Mitch, or Willy, or be in the same lopsided cap allocation we're in now.

In fact, if we trade Willy and keep McD, Matty, and Mitch, we're still looking at about $40M for three forwards. At an estimated cap of $92M, that's 43.5% for three players, compared to the 48.5% this year for four.

The difference between Tavares (11M) and McDavid's next contract (15M?) is only around 4M. If we can resign Willie/Marner for decent increases then McDavid is easily within reach as the cap starts to go up again over the next 3 seasons. If we decide to move someone like Willie than that means we have approximately 24M available to sign McDavid and someone else.

Anyway you look at it, we can be one of the few competitive teams that could offer the room to sign him. Who knows what McDavid will feel like in 3 years, but if we plan for this, I wouldn't be surprised to see him "coming home" to sign with us.

 

[mydnyte]

We are screwed heavily in 2025

2026 Tavares will want 8-9M so will need to find a 2C

Minten ...I expect he will take that job by 25, not 26 ...and Cowen 3rd line C

 

[notDatsyuk]

The difference between Tavares (11M) and McDavid's next contract (15M?) is only around 4M. If we can resign Willie/Marner for decent increases then McDavid is easily within reach as the cap starts to go up again over the next 3 seasons. If we decide to move someone like Willie than that means we have approximately 24M available to sign McDavid and someone else.

Anyway you look at it, we can be one of the few competitive teams that could offer the room to sign him. Who knows what McDavid will feel like in 3 years, but if we plan for this, I wouldn't be surprised to see him "coming home" to sign with us.

The cap is expected to go up about $8.5M by the 25-26 season. Matty has already taken $1.6 of that. If Mitch takes the same $1.6, and Willy gets only $9.3 that will be $5.5 of the $8.5, leaving only $3.

And that's not taking anyone else into consideration.

But none of that addresses the issue I mentioned. Even without Willy, those three will take about 44% of the cap, compared to the 49% for the current four, which is already a huge handicap.

If we lose Mitch instead of Willy and sign him for $9.5, that will cut it to only 42% or the cap.

If we try to keep all four McD, Matty, Mitch, and Willy, it will likely be close to $50 million, which is 54% of the projected cap.

 

[Squiffy]

Edit:

I still think it will go higher, Mirtle is missing the fine print on the MoU, it can rise up to 10% if certain conditions that seem to exist are met and both sides agree to it.

The collapse of regional broadcast deals in some of the US markets is a wildcard in that thought process, if they see that it’s going to really cut in to 23-24 HRR maybe they hedge their bets and only go the 5%. But by straight HRR I think the cap should be 91m-ish or so, and I don’t see why either side wouldn’t want to just get as close to the right number as possible.

 

[al secord]

You forgot Murray and Muzzin's LTIR comes off the books.

This is what "we can and we will" has dissolved into. If all the free agents, or their replacements, re-sign for the same amount, and the cap rises by $3M next year, and the Leafs somehow manage to find $10.5M in LTIR, they'll be okay. Otherwise there's a colossal cap crunch crisis coming.

These arrogant buttmilks think they're smarter than us.

The degree to which this organization takes it's fans for granted is appalling. They're convinced we're idiots. As if we are incapable of adding 2+2.

All the money will be in MNMT+R next year.

The entire team will be a bunch of duds. Thrown in with those five studs. Given the honor of playing hockey with the highest paid players in the world.

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

Your incessant whining shtick is old and tired.