??? by 2026 he will be a 3 mil player, doesnt matter what he wants
24-25 Cap Outlook
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hamzarocks
Registered User
Naw, even if he falls to a 60-65 pt producer that will pull 7-8M
Look at what Kopitar just got.
keonsbitterness
Registered User
hamzarocks
Registered User
I can't see any way Tavares take 3M at like 34 years old
Like 0 chance that happens
He would need to become a 3-4M level player to get thst (seeing his production go from ~75 pts to 45 pts) at which case we have a decent 3C for 4M
If he can still put up 70 pt years, I can't see him missing out on 1 more pay out
3 years 7-8M is probably what he looks for and could get as a UFA
Malkin,
Kopitar
Giroux
Bergeron last few years
They all got like more than 3M deal and they were older than JT when signing.
Right, he’s 35 by the time he starts his next contract. 3x3 if he hasn’t cratered to finish in T.o.
Back to topic. My contention is we are not royally screwed cap wise next year. What say ye?
So your good just keeping the same core for a bunch more years? No changes to that group?
maybe elsewhere with someone desperate, not here. Kopi is less of a passanger at 36 than tavares is at 32, unfortunately for us.
Off to a good start by adding Klingberg.
Are we really questioning if a PPG C is worth 5m?
if he PPG when his contract ends, I'd easily do 5 mil x 4 years...
just make it a non 35+ contract so we don't get hit if he retires, and it is great.
Fair enough. Feels steep and too long to me at 35, but ppg is ppg, hypothetically. I don't think he still will be. Hope so.
Definitely non-35+ in whatever hypothetical scenario in case he needs to do a solid and take a special assistant to gm job lol..
I guess I should have made a Taveres thread, not a next year cap thread..
conFABulator
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2021
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That's fair. I obviously don't know what JT will ask for or want. I feel like the Leafs have some leverage there too.
Maybe I am just being wishful thinker here, but JT taking too much of the cap doesn't seem to work for the Leafs and him leaving to elsewhere to make an extra few million per year wouldn't appear to work for him.
If he takes $3M or $4M he becomes Toronto hero again, him retiring as a Leaf probably has not only emotional value but also financial value.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
A look forward to 24-25, now that we have the AM number. For the fellow cap and cba geeks lol.. am I missing something in this? 100% off season post, we got nothing better going on here for a couple weeks yet. Bare with me, here we go.
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If we pencil in Nylander at 9.5 next contract, I have the Leafs at about 63.5m committed 24-25.
To fill gaps left by FA, needing:
- 3 forwards, 2 of the top six variety barring a breakout from Knies or Robertson
- 3D in the 2-5 positions, Lily possibly being one of them as an RFA
- 1 Starting Goalie, unless they strike lightning with Woll on an ELC playing 50+ at league minimum
- 7 players, 4-6 of them that need real money, not just scraping around to flush out the bottom.
- Lets split the middle and pencil in 2 cheap contracts at 1 million each, flushing out the roster, one bottom six forward and one bottom pairing D.
- 65.5 committed, 5 positions left needing real money: Two top six forwards; Two Dman, one a 2/3, one a 4/5; and one starting G.
Now if the cap is, conservatively, 87.5 for 24/25, that's 22 million to spread around those 5 players, 4.5m AAV each. If it is what I consider to be more likely a 10% cap bump to about 92m, 26.5 million to spread amongst 5 position. Averaging roughly 5.25 million AAV, a spot. UFA contracts next year might get silly if the bump is that high though, that said.
Point being, not sure I see the cap crunch for the Leafs in 24-25 as being so dire really. The scenario mostly has them swapping out 5 million $ players for other 5 million $ players, to keep it simple, but I don't see a step back to accommodate cap problems there, which seems to be a narrative.
Just gotta keep a couple of those signings to 1 year contracts (+JT gone/way way less contract) to leave the McJesus money available, right?
Doom and gloom is an attractive narrative here for some. But there's a fair amount of flexibility for an above average GM to play around with.
If the leafs resign Nylander for 9.5 and the cap rises 4 million, the net gain is -0.148 (cap rise minus Nylander raise minus Matthews raise). Basically they will be in the same boat next year cap wise but also have to give a raise to Lily, then decide if they want to resign their #1G, #2D, #3W, #4D. There is a chance they can save some cap on Klingberg and to a lesser extent Bertuzzi.
The rest of the UFA could be replaced at even cost.
It's not terrible but it's worse than this year
The rest of the UFA could be replaced at even cost.
It's not terrible but it's worse than this year
I mean it seems workable, certainly not some imminent disaster.
Right, I mean that looks pretty close to what I see here too. If we get the extra big cap jump really no problems.
BayStBullies
Burn the Boats!
- Apr 1, 2012
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I think Pridham is indeed smarter than you.
The Iceman
Registered User
- Sep 22, 2007
- 5,343
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I don't think he needs the money.
Take the Spezza/Gio min salary deal to help the team.
- Dec 12, 2017
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If the cap is 92m and Nylander AAV is 9.5 m that’s 48% of the cap on 4 players
13,250,000
11,000,000
10,903,000
9,500,000
——————-
44,653,000
48%
That won’t work.
ETA
i think they have to suck it up for one year until JT contract expires. Finding the 1,3,4 D is a problem either way.
13,250,000
11,000,000
10,903,000
9,500,000
——————-
44,653,000
48%
That won’t work.
ETA
i think they have to suck it up for one year until JT contract expires. Finding the 1,3,4 D is a problem either way.
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Don't disagree that they need to re-allocate some percentage of cap to D from forwards. Probably a bit to G as well for 24/25. I mean, Bundy can do it if he wants to force it before the JT contract is up. Trade $9.5m in Nylander for $9.5m D. Done. Or flat out let him walk and use the cap space. Happens in the NFL all the time. But trade is better obviously.
I know that's overly simplified, but that kinda straightens it all out right?
Except losing Willy would suck, so ya, you probably roll this coming year and next and then do the reset.
I'd put the screws to Marner. There's the guy that you can probably force in to a friendly deal, hometown boy, all that. And the one that makes you want to chew your own foot off the most in the playoffs.
24/25 looks like a lateral kind of season cap wise to me. Nothing really there to dramatically change stuff up, but not a major regression in talent level either.
TMLBlueandWhite
Go Leafs Go
- Feb 2, 2023
- 2,276
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Lol... the irony of my stupid comment isn't lost on me.
Everyone makes mistakes. Shit happens. The difference is I make mine on hfboards.
Not the world's largest hockey stage.
I think this year will in fact be tougher than next year. Would really prefer we don't start the season with a 2-6-12 line up while losing Timmins to waivers or a weak trade return.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
- 16,376
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Agreed. But it’s easy to assume more ice time for him = more points. He’s an offensive catalyst.
it depends on how he continues to produce in the next couple of season's but if he's still above 70 I could see something like a 3 year deal paying him 7/5/3.5 or 8/6/4 or something along those lines first one is a 5.1 AAV 2nd is 6 AAV.
