24-25 Cap Outlook

[Squiffy]

A look forward to 24-25, now that we have the AM number. For the fellow cap and cba geeks lol.. am I missing something in this? 100% off season post, we got nothing better going on here for a couple weeks yet. Bare with me, here we go.

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If we pencil in Nylander at 9.5 next contract, I have the Leafs at about 63.5m committed 24-25.

To fill gaps left by FA, needing:

- 3 forwards, 2 of the top six variety barring a breakout from Knies or Robertson

- 3D in the 2-5 positions, Lily possibly being one of them as an RFA

- 1 Starting Goalie, unless they strike lightning with Woll on an ELC playing 50+ at league minimum

- 7 players, 4-6 of them that need real money, not just scraping around to flush out the bottom.

- Lets split the middle and pencil in 2 cheap contracts at 1 million each, flushing out the roster, one bottom six forward and one bottom pairing D.

- 65.5 committed, 5 positions left needing real money: Two top six forwards; Two Dman, one a 2/3, one a 4/5; and one starting G.

Now if the cap is, conservatively, 87.5 for 24/25, that's 22 million to spread around those 5 players, 4.5m AAV each. If it is what I consider to be more likely a 10% cap bump to about 92m, 26.5 million to spread amongst 5 position. Averaging roughly 5.25 million AAV, a spot. UFA contracts next year might get silly if the bump is that high though, that said.

Point being, not sure I see the cap crunch for the Leafs in 24-25 as being so dire really. The scenario mostly has them swapping out 5 million $ players for other 5 million $ players, to keep it simple, but I don't see a step back to accommodate cap problems there, which seems to be a narrative.

Just gotta keep a couple of those signings to 1 year contracts (+JT gone/way way less contract) to leave the McJesus money available, right?

Click to read more...

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

You forgot Murray and Muzzin's LTIR comes off the books.

This is what "we can and we will" has dissolved into. If all the free agents, or their replacements, re-sign for the same amount, and the cap rises by $3M next year, and the Leafs somehow manage to find $10.5M in LTIR, they'll be okay. Otherwise there's a colossal cap crunch crisis coming.


The degree to which this organization takes it's fans for granted is appalling. They're convinced we're idiots. As if we are incapable of adding 2+2.

All the money will be in MNMT+R next year.

The entire team will be a bunch of duds. Thrown in with those five studs. Given the honor of playing hockey with the highest paid players in the world.

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

[MOD]

 

[Thornbury]

You forgot Murray and Muzzin's LTIR comes off the books.

This is what "we can and we will" has dissolved into. If all the free agents, or their replacements, re-sign for the same amount, and the cap rises by $3M next year, and the Leafs somehow manage to find $10.5M in LTIR, they'll be okay. Otherwise there's a colossal cap crunch crisis coming.


The degree to which this organization takes it's fans for granted is appalling. They're convinced we're idiots. As if we are incapable of adding 2+2.

All the money will be in MNMT+R next year.

The entire team will be a bunch of duds. Thrown in with those five studs. Given the honor of playing hockey with the highest paid players in the world.

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

We don't need to "find" $10.5 in LTIR next year. Those contracts run out this year, plus there will be approximately $22 million in players going to unrestricted free agency also coming off the books. There will be a lot of payroll flexibility, but indeed they won't be able to bring back all of Klingberg, Domi, Bertuzzi and Samsonov. Some tradeoffs will have to be made, but the sky isn't falling.

[MOD]

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

You forgot Murray and Muzzin's LTIR comes off the books.

This is what "we can and we will" has dissolved into. If all the free agents, or their replacements, re-sign for the same amount, and the cap rises by $3M next year, and the Leafs somehow manage to find $10.5M in LTIR, they'll be okay. Otherwise there's a colossal cap crunch crisis coming.

These arrogant buttmilks think they're smarter than us.

The degree to which this organization takes it's fans for granted is appalling. They're convinced we're idiots. As if we are incapable of adding 2+2.

All the money will be in MNMT+R next year.

The entire team will be a bunch of duds. Thrown in with those five studs. Given the honor of playing hockey with the highest paid players in the world.

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

This is how I picture you posting about the Leafs. Take a Xanax, buddy, it's going to be ok. You may want to look up how LTIR actually works before you post again.

 

[IPS]

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

Probably the most perfect way to put it with the way this board loves their euphemisms

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Maybe you aren't an idiot, I'm not sure about that but you definitely don't know how LTIR works.

I don't know how much dope I smoked before I wrote that comment but I must have been on another planet.

This is how I picture you posting about the Leafs. Take a Xanax, buddy, it's going to be ok. You may want to look up how LTIR actually works before you post again.

Good idea.

I'm gonna hit the medicine cabinet and go to sleep before I say something else silly.

 

[IPS]

We got 2 options:

Pay Nylander his overpayment and basically just accept you're going to throw away the entire 24-25 season due to crippling cap constraints and then go forward from there with the traditional "big 3" and hope that works.

Trade Nylander (for a likely sub-optimal return due to him not having any term) and hope you scoop out a unicorn from somewhere.

Nylander effectively became the best secondary scoring piece for the Leafs last season. Tavares is looking worse and worse as the league becomes faster, but at his contract we absolutely have to rely on him as a secondary scoring piece if we are going to trade Nylander.

Nylander is basically giving you 80-90 points and 30-40 goals every year, or atleast that's what it appears he's evolved into. I'm not paying $10M+ for that, and I doubt any other team around the league will. Once he settles down to a range of the lower 9's I would consider re-signing him.

 

[EK392000]

Nylander is basically giving you 80-90 points and 30-40 goals every year, or atleast that's what it appears he's evolved into. I'm not paying $10M+ for that, and I doubt any other team around the league will. Once he settles down to a range of the lower 9's I would consider re-signing him.

I think Nylander is easily a 100 point player if he gets played like a first liner. He put up 87 playing 18:33 per night. Most first liners touch 20 minutes per night.

 

[Fogelhund]

The currently expectations for the cap in 24/25 are $87.7 mil.

If you assume Nylander at $9.5, we have 13 players signed to the roster, and $24,105,333 remaining, for the balance of the roster.

If you randomly pick any TWO prospects/Marlies and assume they make the jump, at their current contracts, we end up with 15 roster spots, and over $22 million, for the remaining eight spots. It's not a ton of dough, but it's easy enough to do.

The year after, the cap will go up to $92.x million, at least that's the predictions.

If you give Marner $12 mil, and Tavares resigns for $5 mil. Then we have a ton of space... unless Knies/Robertson/Liljegren/Woll/Samsonov become stars... which isn't a terrible thing either.

 

[tom leafers]

would a Tavaras buy out for the final year of his contract be an option at all? dont think so as according to cap friendly it would only save us $300k. welp ive tried nothing and im all out of ideas

 

[hamzarocks]

We are screwed heavily in 2025

2026 Tavares will want 8-9M so will need to find a 2C

 

[Mess]

I'm sill hoping that Treliving can pull off a Zero Sum game plan with the Core 4 forwards and now the more Matthews took the less Nylander, Marner and Tavares will get on their next deals.

Zero sum ideally means that the same amount of CH% and AAV the current core 4 consume NOW will be the same amount AFTER their next deals are signed and then as the Cap goes up the CH% of the core 4 declines and Leafs start gaining more cap space to build a winner.

Here is the spreadsheet as to what that would look like this 2024-25 that will include Matthews and Nylander raises and Marner and Tavaras in the last year of their deals will be bad for Toronto.

Objective being make Leafs core 4 total AAV cost of today $40,505,616 essentially be similar after all 4 core players next contracts and then as the Cap Ceiling rises by $8.5 mil by 2025-26 Leaf will actually have 5% more cap space even with AM + WN + MM all getting raises and those being offset by the pay-cut to Tavares next deal.

Chart shows based on projections that Matthews makes +$2 mil more than Marner and Mitch making +$2 mil more than Willy and then JT making about -$2.5 mil less then Willy on Leafs internal salary scale with only 2 players making double digits.

Salary projections of Core 4 next contracts.
Matthews @ $13.25 mil AAV X 4 years.
Marner @ $11.25 mil AAV X 6 years.
Nylander @ $9.25 mil AAV X 6 years.
Tavares @ ~$6.75 mil X AAV 3 years.

 

[Stephen]

I'm sill hoping that Treliving can pull off a Zero Sum game plan with the Core 4 forwards and now the more Matthews took the less Nylander, Marner and Tavares will get on their next deals.

Zero sum ideally means that the same amount of CH% and AAV the current core 4 consume NOW will be the same amount after their next deals AFTER are signed and then as the Cap goes up the CH% of the core 4 declines and Leafs start gaining more cap space to build a winner.

Here is the spreadsheet as to what that would look like this 2024-25 that will include Matthews and Nylander raises and Marner and Tavaras in the last year of their deals will be bad for Toronto.

View attachment 738460

Object being make Leafs core 4 total AAV cost of today $40,505,616 essentially be similar after all 4 core players next contracts and then as the Cap Ceiling rises by $8.5 mil by 2025-26 Leaf will actually have 5% more cap space even with AM + WN + MM all getting raises and those being offset by the pay-cut to Tavares next deal.

Chart shows based on projections that Matthews makes +$2 mil more than Marner and Mitch making +$2 mil more than Willy and then JT making about -$2.5 mil less then Willy on Leafs internal salary scale with only 2 players making double digits.

Salary projections of Core 4 next contracts.
Matthews @ $13.25 mil AAV X 4 years.
Marner @ $11.25 mil AAV X 6 years.
Nylander @ $9.25 mil AAV X 6 years.
Tavares @ ~$6.75 mil X AAV 3 years.

Yeah if we could basically restructure the Big 4 contracts and trade off Tavares money into raises for the other 3 it will work out in the long run beyond 2025. That’s just going to be a potential step back season.

The alternative is we lose Nylander and Tavares’ contract runs out. And we spend like drunken sailors on 2x3x replacements with their money post 2025.

Or maybe the one year carve out happens with Brodie, Bertuzzi or Klingberg coming off the books. And we just hold on for a bumpy season but can survive until Tavares is UFA.

 

[Mess]

Yeah if we could basically restructure the Big 4 contracts and trade off Tavares money into raises for the other 3 it will work out in the long run beyond 2025. That’s just going to be a potential step back season.

The alternative is we lose Nylander and Tavares’ contract runs out. And we spend like drunken sailors on 2x3x replacements with their money post 2025.

Or maybe the one year carve out happens with Brodie, Bertuzzi or Klingberg coming off the books. And we just hold on for a bumpy season but can survive until Tavares is UFA.

I can really see Treliving trying to get away from 4 forwards using nearly 1/2 a teams cap to turning one of Nylander, Marner, Tarares or their cap space into building up the Dcore into a big, mean and mobile unit.

2024-25 is going to be really tough sledding on Leafs Cup competitiveness with Matthews and Nylander raises joining the current contracts of Marner and Tavares. However with all the short-term deals BT has signed new players to for this year, gives him max flexibility for 2024-25 to start reshaping the team in his image.

Trading Nylander in the next year, and letting JT walk in 2 years and really changing this team in a playoff competitior would be fine by me and Leafs focus on a high impact player like say Leon Draisaitl who becomes a potential UFA in 2025-26

 

[conFABulator]

We are screwed heavily in 2025

2026 Tavares will want 8-9M so will need to find a 2C

Obviously, no one has any way of knowing what JT will want on his next contract but I would guess that it would be much, much less than your projection. I am thinking it is closer to Spezza or Giordano than to current see deal.

No matter what his contract is, we will need a 2C. He will not be that at that point in his career. I see him as a 3C or a top six winger that is a PP specialist.

If our captain that just made $77M from us and is on the he decline doesn't take a deep hometown discount, I don't who would. I am thinking 3 years x $3M seems right.

 

[Stephen]

I can really see Treliving trying to get away from 4 forwards using nearly 1/2 a teams cap to turning one of Nylander, Marner, Tarares or their cap space into building up the Dcore into a big, mean and mobile unit.

2024-25 is going to be really tough sledding on Leafs Cup competitiveness with Matthews and Nylander raises joining the current contracts of Marner and Tavares. However with all the short-term deals BT has signed new players to for this year, gives him max flexibility for 2024-25 to start reshaping the team in his image.

Trading Nylander in the next year, and letting JT walk in 2 years and really changing this team in a playoff competitior would be fine by me and Leafs focus on a high impact player like say Leon Draisaitl who becomes a potential UFA in 2025-26

I think 2025 may be a step back season for all the reasons discussed. But if it’s the last year of the flat cap or whatever the other factor at play is the rate of decline of other contending teams as well. So the roster might be absolutely worse but relatively as competitive as 2023 but who knows.

But yes once Tavares is off the books and the cap rises it’s game on again. I’ll be a mini 2005-06.

 

[Squiffy]

We got 2 options:

Pay Nylander his overpayment and basically just accept you're going to throw away the entire 24-25 season due to crippling cap constraints and then go forward from there with the traditional "big 3" and hope that works.

Trade Nylander (for a likely sub-optimal return due to him not having any term) and hope you scoop out a unicorn from somewhere.

Nylander effectively became the best secondary scoring piece for the Leafs last season. Tavares is looking worse and worse as the league becomes faster, but at his contract we absolutely have to rely on him as a secondary scoring piece if we are going to trade Nylander.

Nylander is basically giving you 80-90 points and 30-40 goals every year, or atleast that's what it appears he's evolved into. I'm not paying $10M+ for that, and I doubt any other team around the league will. Once he settles down to a range of the lower 9's I would consider re-signing him.

Is it a crippling crunch though? 25-ish million to spread around 5 holes to fill is not that daunting really.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I'm pretty shocked that a few of you have Tavares penciled in to a new contract with TOR. I sort of imagined that he would be gone and that many people would be holding the door open for him.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm pretty shocked that a few of you have Tavares penciled in to a new contract with TOR. I sort of imagined that he would be gone and that many people would be holding the door open for him.

I think he's here until he retires.

 

[Stephen]

I'm pretty shocked that a few of you have Tavares penciled in to a new contract with TOR. I sort of imagined that he would be gone and that many people would be holding the door open for him.

Yeah I feel like I’m more than ok moving on from Tavares after his contract expires. If he’s coming back I would imagine a sub $4-5 million courtesy contract but nothing remotely resembling front line money. Closer to Thornton money than Marleau money.

 

[TimeZone]

You forgot Murray and Muzzin's LTIR comes off the books.

This is what "we can and we will" has dissolved into. If all the free agents, or their replacements, re-sign for the same amount, and the cap rises by $3M next year, and the Leafs somehow manage to find $10.5M in LTIR, they'll be okay. Otherwise there's a colossal cap crunch crisis coming.

These arrogant buttmilks think they're smarter than us.

The degree to which this organization takes it's fans for granted is appalling. They're convinced we're idiots. As if we are incapable of adding 2+2.

All the money will be in MNMT+R next year.

The entire team will be a bunch of duds. Thrown in with those five studs. Given the honor of playing hockey with the highest paid players in the world.

The most appropriately compensated core in the league.

....how does this mess get 3 likes?

This place has become a complete and total dumpster fire.

 

[Sypher04]

Yeah I feel like I’m more than ok moving on from Tavares after his contract expires. If he’s coming back I would imagine a sub $4-5 million courtesy contract but nothing remotely resembling front line money. Closer to Thornton money than Marleau money.

4-5 would be ideal for a number of reason, but none the least of which being that I think Marner probably sees a full $1M+ raise on his next deal.

 

[Squiffy]

I'm pretty shocked that a few of you have Tavares penciled in to a new contract with TOR. I sort of imagined that he would be gone and that many people would be holding the door open for him.

I think he'll take a very friendly deal to retire a Leaf myseelf, and at the same time hand the captaincy to AM. We'll see.

But one year too far ahead for this thread. Strictly next year and a look at what is widely accepted as a terrible cap crunch coming, I don't see it. Tight sure, but not restrictively so.

I also think the cap goes closer to 92 then 87.5, but that's another ball of yarn. We can stick with 87.5m cap next year as a parameter here.

 

[thewave]

JT 5m x 4y? Dont even know myself, sometimes its just better to let the old guys go elsewhere unless they want 1m 2m

 

[Squiffy]

JT 5m x 4y? Dont even know myself, sometimes its just better to let the old guys go elsewhere unless they want 1m 2m

If he's still going PPG you gotta think about it right? Long as you can have the money for a 2c and put that at 3c.