2026 NHL Draft: We won #2! Reid or Stenberg for the win; taking Verhoeff is a drafting sin!

[Palaeontologists]

Good blog post comparing the prospects in this draft class to the last three years.

BLUE BULLET 2026 NHL ENTRY DRAFT FINAL RANKINGS

Welcome to the Blue Bullet 2026 NHL Entry Draft Rankings.

bluebulletbrad.substack.com

I am starting to come around to the idea that Reid might be in a tier of his own at the top in this draft if McKenna and Stenberg didn’t exist.

How did you come to this conclusion when the value gap between 3rd place Reid and 5th place Carels is closer than 1st place Stenberg and 2nd place McKenna.

Just based on this rankings it seems like:
Tier 1: Stenberg
Tier 1.5: McKenna
Tier 2: Reid, Šmits, Carels
Tier 3: Verhoeff, Rudolph, Björck, Malhotra
...

 

[coooldude]

Good blog post comparing the prospects in this draft class to the last three years.

BLUE BULLET 2026 NHL ENTRY DRAFT FINAL RANKINGS

Welcome to the Blue Bullet 2026 NHL Entry Draft Rankings.

bluebulletbrad.substack.com

I am starting to come around to the idea that Reid might be in a tier of his own at the top in this draft if McKenna and Stenberg didn’t exist.

It's a good modeling approach and it highlights 1) the best approaches still only account for less than half the outcome variance (r^2 of 46% is good not great) 2) his model represented very well the drafting mindset for defensemen (r^2 of 82% vs draft position) but also showed how defensemen are highly unpredictable (r^2 of 13% for career points).

The results essentially come down to "McKenna and Stenberg had excellent production leading to and including their draft years" and "Smits and Reid stand out, but not as much as the LW's production history, and Reid barely over Smits mostly because he's RD."

This leaves us in much the same place we were.

Grier will draft Stenberg and many of us will say "of course, clear best player available, could easily be the league's best two way duo" and hope that he meshes as it looks like he will with Celebrini. Or he will draft Reid (long shot Verhoeff) and many of us will say, "of course, had to take the shot at at top pairing D this high in the draft, and Reid/Verhoeff have those tools and that upside."

People will be angry and happy either way, I'll be happy either way and immediately concerned about whatever the implications are for what we didn't do. Reid? Awesome, now we have 2-3 years to worry he busts. Stenberg? Awesome, still have gaping holes on D and hope he doesn't just become Raymond or Raymond-.

I'm almost more excited to see what happens with the 27 at this point.

 

[Palaeontologists]

I hope Grier drafts Björck just for shit and giggles.

 

[coooldude]

I hope Grier drafts Björck just for shit and giggles.

A different team at 2 might. Not likely though.

 

[Palaeontologists]

A different team at 2 might. Not likely though.

Jokes aside, Björck's an absolute stud and whichever team is drafting him will be very happy.

 

[WSS11]

Wheelers final mock before Friday:

2. Stenberg
27. Bleyl

2026 NHL Mock Draft 3.0: Wheeler’s final predictions for the first 2 rounds

With the draft now days away, Wheeler projects every pick from the Maple Leafs at No. 1 through the Rangers at No. 64.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Palaeontologists]

Would be happy with this outcome.

 

[JackSkellington]

Wheelers final mock before Friday:

2. Stenberg
27. Bleyl

2026 NHL Mock Draft 3.0: Wheeler’s final predictions for the first 2 rounds

With the draft now days away, Wheeler projects every pick from the Maple Leafs at No. 1 through the Rangers at No. 64.

www.nytimes.com

Would love this

 

[STL Shark]

Wheelers final mock before Friday:

2. Stenberg
27. Bleyl

2026 NHL Mock Draft 3.0: Wheeler’s final predictions for the first 2 rounds

With the draft now days away, Wheeler projects every pick from the Maple Leafs at No. 1 through the Rangers at No. 64.

www.nytimes.com

Curious because Cam Robinson is now saying that Vancouver and Malhotra have both sort of noted that going to Vancouver where his dad is the HC is probably a bad idea and there are enough other players at the same level to where they are going elsewhere at #3.

I think the most likely scenario is still a trade back. Whether it be Chicago, NYR, or even Vancouver, the Stenberg buzz feels more like luring someone into trading up than that being what Grier and Co. want to do.

 

[WSS11]

Curious because Cam Robinson is now saying that Vancouver and Malhotra have both sort of noted that going to Vancouver where his dad is the HC is probably a bad idea and there are enough other players at the same level to where they are going elsewhere at #3.

I think the most likely scenario is still a trade back. Whether it be Chicago, NYR, or even Vancouver, the Stenberg buzz feels more like luring someone into trading up than that being what Grier and Co. want to do.

It’s possible.. or the Sharks brass may just have Stenberg as a clear tier above Reid and Carels.

 

[matt trick]

Every year there's an undersized center with Bjorck's ability and production? You're gonna have to show your work on that.

I meant undersized scorer, rather than undersized center specifically, but Turcoette, Rossi, and Eklund (‘drafted as a C’)come to mind. Michkov as well, but he’s a head case whereas Bjork seems like a player’s player. We don’t know where Catton will end up, but he also was a really highly rated undersized C. Other that Rossi I think all of them are an inch or two taller as well.

On the flip side, Benson and Jarvis come to mind as well.

I think Bjork will be a really good player- similar to Benson, perhaps he can stay at C, however, I’d rather gamble on big mobile dmen with size.

 

[STL Shark]

It’s possible.. or the Sharks brass may just have Stenberg as a clear tier above Reid and Carels.

2026 NHL Mock Draft: McKenna to Leafs leads draft week top 32 – but then what?

The Sharks will likely go for a defender, but things start to get interesting at No. 3.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Like this mock from last night is vastly different than what Wheeler posted this AM (only 1 of the top 10 picks is the same and that is McKenna). So there is not really any sort of consensus thought out there on the Sharks at #2 or even Vancouver at #3, which probably helps Grier to be able to do what he wants to do.

Vancouver pivoting off Malhotra is a benefit for the Sharks trying to move down as it puts another Stenberg suitor ahead of Chicago.

 

[LilLeeroy]

How did you come to this conclusion when the value gap between 3rd place Reid and 5th place Carels is closer than 1st place Stenberg and 2nd place McKenna.

Just based on this rankings it seems like:
Tier 1: Stenberg
Tier 1.5: McKenna
Tier 2: Reid, Šmits, Carels
Tier 3: Verhoeff, Rudolph, Björck, Malhotra
...

Just think it’s hard to punish McKenna for his production this year when he would be above Bedard if he just stayed in the CHL.

Just more that Reid does have the tools that separate him a bit from the rest I think, and I do think he is a bit ahead of the others.

 

[one2gamble]

The thing with Reid is, he wouldnt be in the conversation if the Sharks had more than 1.5 d prospects

 

[SJS1991]

The thing with Reid is, he wouldnt be in the conversation if the Sharks had more than 1.5 d prospects

I mean Reid is viewed as a top 3/5 prospect in the draft and he plays a premium position in hockey… he would still be in the conversation for the pick regardless.

 

[STL Shark]

The thing with Reid is, he wouldnt be in the conversation if the Sharks had more than 1.5 d prospects

I think he would be still. Go back to 2021 draft rankings, basically nobody had Eklund outside of the top 5 and he was consensus #1 Euro Skater by Central Scouting. He was consensus ranked 3rd overall behind Power and Beniers, but fell to 7th due to size/upside concern and the value of D-Men (Hughes/Edvinsson) and Centers being greater than a smaller winger.

 

[Hodge]

2026 NHL Mock Draft: McKenna to Leafs leads draft week top 32 – but then what?

The Sharks will likely go for a defender, but things start to get interesting at No. 3.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Like this mock from last night is vastly different than what Wheeler posted this AM (only 1 of the top 10 picks is the same and that is McKenna). So there is not really any sort of consensus thought out there on the Sharks at #2 or even Vancouver at #3, which probably helps Grier to be able to do what he wants to do.

Vancouver pivoting off Malhotra is a benefit for the Sharks trying to move down as it puts another Stenberg suitor ahead of Chicago.

I don't think "Steven Ellis" is reputable at all. Probably worth the same as a mock draft by any random blog or HFBoards poster. Daily Faceoff is basically a joke now that Seravalli is gone.

Vancouver probably realized they lose all leverage if everyone else is 100% certain they're taking Malhotra. It doesn't make any sense for them to draft Reid when they already have Buium and 3OA is probably a bit rich for Verhoeff. If McKenna and Stenberg are gone then Malhotra is BPA and they should take him regardless of what his dad thinks. Odds are he'll be fired by Caleb's 2nd or 3rd season in the league anyway.

 

[Patty Ice]

The thing with Reid is, he wouldnt be in the conversation if the Sharks had more than 1.5 d prospects

Yes he would. He is one of, if not the best (imo he is), defenseman prospects in the draft.

That's like saying we shouldn't consider Stenberg because we have so many forwards already.

These guys are the cream of the crop.

 

[STL Shark]

I don't think "Steven Ellis" is reputable at all. Probably worth the same as a mock draft by any random blog or HFBoards poster. Daily Faceoff is basically a joke now that Seravalli is gone.

Vancouver probably realized they lose all leverage if everyone else is 100% certain they're taking Malhotra. It doesn't make any sense for them to draft Reid when they already have Buium and 3OA is probably a bit rich for Verhoeff. If McKenna and Stenberg are gone then Malhotra is BPA and they should take him regardless of what his dad thinks. Odds are he'll be fired by Caleb's 2nd or 3rd season in the league anyway.

Seravalli was the joke though so not sure how those two reconcile...

And it's kind of odd that you think the situation for Malhotra somehow gets better playing for the org that fired your dad in a big Canadian media market rather than worse.

 

[Hodge]

Seravalli was the joke though so not sure how those two reconcile...

And it's kind of odd that you think the situation for Malhotra somehow gets better playing for the org that fired your dad in a big Canadian media market rather than worse.

Seravalli is a joke of a human being but at least he has sources. The people writing for that website now are just some guys as far as I can tell.

Everyone knows coaches are hired to be fired especially when a team is starting a rebuild. Manny would immediately get another job on a NHL bench.

I just can't see the Canucks passing up on a big center for a redundant piece like Reid. If we don't draft Stenberg then yeah they'll probably pick him.

 

[LadyStanley]

And NHL Draft Class pod dropped latest episode. Their final mock draft will be out Wednesday. AMA coming

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

Nothing new/earth shattering

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Monday mocks leading up to the draft and all the media throwing out their guesses.
Clutchpoints:
#2: Stenburg
#27: Malte G.

They about 3 months behind on Gustafssons ranking value... too good to be true. Is it Friday yet?

Sadly, two chances of that at 27, slim and none.
And slim just left town.

If we - or anyone gets MG at 27 - he'll make all the teams that passed look very daft.

 

[SJS1991]

These pages go fast but did we all talk about how apparently Gustafsson’s father works for the Sharks?

Sam Cosentino mentioned it on the 100% Hockey podcast.