I’m sticking with most of my iffy predictions made prior to 4 nations: (note my win rate is very very poor)
Faksa to STL - will be retained. I think they need what he brings. I predict he will be signed within 10 days. 2 years? Something like that. It’ll probably cost more to find a replacement than the return we’d get from trading him at this deadline? Meanwhile Faksa’s agent can use the deadline as the pivot to maximize his clients deal. I don’t think he’s a July 1st guy anymore…he’s gonna go later in ufa probably if he gets there, so the best time to get him signed is probably this tdl when the existing team is evaluating the replacement cost.
Binner traded. I personally think it is very low chance but it’s my guess - I don’t think there’s a massive return but I felt if he went and was a champion then the teams who need a goalie will be hard pressed to pass on him. Opportunity cost type of thing. Trading binner helps the blues by lowering our win expectation the rest of the year = better draft pick. By the time we’re playoff competitive - Binner will be past his productive years. It’s probably best for Binnington to be in the playoff environment.
Faulk to ? - shipped, although I personally think offseason is more likely, I’m guessing because I think it’s on the horizon.
Toropchenko to Toronto - they have a general weakness on their depth chart for this position and it seems reasonable to bring a coach’s plug and play guy. Modest return. But if I were the blues, I’d hold them to a price that wasn’t super modest. This type of deal should be a helpful situation for both parties, not just one.
Schenn to STL: I’ve shifted to thinking Schenn stays. I’m changing my prediction to that even though that shouldn’t be allowed. I don’t think there’s a market for him where a deal could come to exist that would be approved by both sides of a deal. His contract maybe would need to be a bit better or his production a bit higher for the fair price that would have to be paid to make sense.
Suter - I think teams would look here if they had injuries but I’m not up to date on that. I don’t think he will be rented if there is no injury situation? I think he’s not really a guy who works as a 7th or bottom pairing guy maybe? He eats minutes, so he needs a role that does that. I’m guessing no. The bonus pool money that will be due to him isn’t enough to prevent a deal but it’s a thing too. An acquiring team will have that performance bonus hit for their share of his time with them, which may jack their cap situation up next year if they intended to end this year right at the cap.
Bonus prediction area:
Detroit is a wildcard to me. They’ve got to be feeling great about Larkin’s performance at 4 nations, have a mature group, the young defense is growing, they maybe would want a guy with term.
I could imagine a whole bunch of current Blues fitting in with what Detroit has. I think can come up with reasonable trades that involve Binner, Schenn, really most of the term guys mentioned in the rumor mill.
The Jets and Utah are interesting sneaky trade partners too, but I think Steve Yzerman is the most likely unexpected big deal trade partner.
If I absolutely have to pick a specific deal just to have one on the books - and just to keep it simple - I think Detroit would take binner and give us Talbot back. I’d hope we could extract their 2025 first. I think it would be nice to go into the draft with a top 10 pick and a top 25 pick. Binner for Talbot and a 1st isn’t great, but your helping your own pick get better and can use the other one to re-adjust defense if needed. Maybe you move Faulk and the red wing first for a quality depth defenseman or package the first with Schenn to augment his value a little, or maybe you just draft and add to the Swedish mafia.
