2025 Trade Deadline | Who gets traded?

[Brian39]

Players with as much term left like Binnington, Schenn, Faulk etc rarely ever get moved at the deadline, it would be much likelier for a deal like that to happen in the offseason.

Binner and Faulk only have 2 years left after this one and Schenn has 3.

Hertl went at last year's deadline and he had 6 years of term. The MIttlestadt/Byram trade was 2 days before the deadline last year. Neither had 2+ years of term, but both expire to RFAs and were clearly not rentals. Allen only had 1 more year of term, but that was a deadline trade last year too. The previous season the Canucks traded for Hronek about a week before the deadline. He had a year of term and expired as an RFA after that. A week earlier, the Devils traded for pending RFA Timo Meier with the clear intention to extend him (which they did).

Hell, JT Miller just got moved a couple weeks ago.

Late February up to the deadline is definitely mostly about rentals, but it isn't super rare for buyers to go after guys that can help their team for more than just one playoff push. I don't think a trade is likely and I'd be surprised if Faulk is moved. But I also think that Schenn and Binner are possibly going to be better than any rental that gets moved at their respective positions.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Binner and Faulk only have 2 years left after this one and Schenn has 3.

Hertl went at last year's deadline and he had 6 years of term. The MIttlestadt/Byram trade was 2 days before the deadline last year. Neither had 2+ years of term, but both expire to RFAs and were clearly not rentals. Allen only had 1 more year of term, but that was a deadline trade last year too. The previous season the Canucks traded for Hronek about a week before the deadline. He had a year of term and expired as an RFA after that. A week earlier, the Devils traded for pending RFA Timo Meier with the clear intention to extend him (which they did).

Hell, JT Miller just got moved a couple weeks ago.

Late February up to the deadline is definitely mostly about rentals, but it isn't super rare for buyers to go after guys that can help their team for more than just one playoff push. I don't think a trade is likely and I'd be surprised if Faulk is moved. But I also think that Schenn and Binner are possibly going to be better than any rental that gets moved at their respective positions.

Another thing that helps teams move players with term is being out of the flat cap. So there's less need for cap balancing or retention. In a year, we've gone from San Jose retaining 6.5 years on Hertl to Vancouver not having to retain or take a cap dump to move Miller.

I think we might see 1 guy with term go, and I think it'd be Schenn given how much smoke there is surrounding him currently.

 

[StlBigFly]

I’m sticking with most of my iffy predictions made prior to 4 nations: (note my win rate is very very poor)

Faksa to STL - will be retained. I think they need what he brings. I predict he will be signed within 10 days. 2 years? Something like that. It’ll probably cost more to find a replacement than the return we’d get from trading him at this deadline? Meanwhile Faksa’s agent can use the deadline as the pivot to maximize his clients deal. I don’t think he’s a July 1st guy anymore…he’s gonna go later in ufa probably.

Binner traded. I personally think it is very low chance but it’s my guess - I don’t think there’s a massive return but I felt if he went and was a champion then the teams who need a goalie will be hard pressed to pass on him. Opportunity cost type of thing. Trading binner helps the blues by lowering our win expectation the rest of the year = better draft pick. By the time we’re playoff competitive - Binner will be past his productive years.

Faulk to ? - shipped, although I personally think offseason is more likely, I’m guessing because I think it’s on the horizon.

Toropchenko to Toronto - they have a general weakness on their depth chart for this position and it seems reasonable to bring a coach’s plug and play guy. Modest return.

Schenn to STL: I’ve shifted to thinking Schenn stays. I’m changing my prediction to that even though that shouldn’t be allowed. I don’t think there’s a market for him where a deal could come to exist that would be approved by both sides of a deal. His contract maybe would need to be a bit better or his production a bit higher for the fair price that would have to be paid to make sense.

Suter - I think teams would look here if they had injuries but I’m not up to date on that. I don’t think he will be rented if there is no injury situation? I think he’s not really a guy who works as a 7th or bottom pairing guy maybe? He eats minutes, so he needs a role that does that. I’m guessing no. The bonus pool money that will be due to him isn’t enough to prevent a deal but it’s a thing too. An acquiring team will have that performance bonus hit for their share of his time with them, which may jack their cap situation up next year.

Bonus prediction area:

Detroit is a wildcard to me. They’ve got to be feeling great about Larkin’s performance at 4 nations, have a mature group, the young defense is growing, they maybe would want a guy with term.

I could imagine a whole bunch of current Blues fitting in with what Detroit has. Like a whole lot.

 

[Renard]

I think Suter might return a bit more than people expect. He's been pretty damn effective as a defensive #4 D man this year and was pretty effective as a defensive #5 D man in the playoffs for Dallas. His on ice play really hasn't been the problem with him that led to 2 buyouts. The issues were locker room related plus his play relative to the amount and remaining term on his contract. The contract concerns are basically non-existent on his current deal and I think that 'being an asshole' is a much lesser concern for a 3 month rental than a guy on your team from the start who has term left on the deal.

He's a #4/5 D man that every single team could fit under the cap. I can't say that I'd prefer Colin MIller or Troy Stretcher to him and they both returned 4ths. Eddy returned a 3rd and a 5th last year and I'm not sure his resume leading up to the deal was better than Suter's. Lyubushkin returned a 3rd last year and I don't think he was playing any better than Suter. If the market this year is similar to last year's, he really should be worth more than a 4th. And if it turns into a seller's market (with a weaker draft) then maybe he even returns a 2nd (very likely with something else going with him). Not a franchise-altering return, but also not a simple late round pick.

I'm wondering if the rest of the league view Suter as a shit disturber given his days in Minnesota