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2025 Prediction

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Schedule is pretty favourable in the second half of the year, depending on what model you look at we either have the 5th easiest or 12th easiest remaining schedule

I think this team can do it, health permitting.

Zub should give us a boost soon enough, hopefully Ullmark isn't out long.
 
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If we can get past Boston and Tampa in points somehow, I think we’d play Toronto in the 1st round. :naughty:

If stay where we are (last wild card spot), I think we’d play NJD.

This is based on the current standings.
 
I think they can go toe to toe with any in the league. What we're missing is consistent goaltending. Healthy Ullmark, maybe a fired up Forsberg? Maybe Merilainen steals the backup job? Gun to my head, I think they make it. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh is the main rival for that final spot. right now.
As for a prediction on a 1st round playoff match up: we lose in 7 games.
 
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For whatever reason I called Ottawa going 6-2 in the games before Minny. Didn’t see 6 in a row. But I think Ottawa gets in first wildcard spot.
 
Four things that I believe are key to making the playoffs:
1) reliable goaltending
2) everyone playing a 200’ game
3) getting 5v5 scoring
4) staying healthy
 
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If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
 
I think we make the playoffs but bow out in a competitive 1st round series.
 
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bicboi64 said:
If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
Click to expand...
I don't think Boston is going to make the playoffs but if we were to play them, I think we'd blow them out.

If we have a healthy Ullmark this team can beat any team in the playoffs. I think we'd lose in the 2nd round though
 
bicboi64 said:
If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
Click to expand...
A 1st round match up against Boston seems unlikely.

Hopefully I have this correct, but playoff matchups work as follows:
  • 1st place team (in Eastern Conference) will play the 8th place team (in the Conference).
  • 2nd will play 7th; and,
  • 3rd will play 6th.
So, if the season ended today, 1st place Washington (might end up being NJD, just guessing) would play 8th place Ottawa.

If Ottawa moves up to 7th, they’ll play the 2nd place team.

If Ottawa plays a really strong 2nd half season and ends up with more points than Boston and Tampa, they’ll finish in 6th place and face the 3rd place team. So, if this were to happen, it's possible we could end up playing Toronto.

NJD, Washington, Carolina, Florida & Toronto seem like the safest bets right now for the top 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference. Boston would have to get really hot along with two of these 5 teams seriously faltering for Boston to get to one of the top 3 conference seeds.
 
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Micklebot said:
Here's another one,

powerrankingsguru.com

NHL Playoff Odds

NHL team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.
powerrankingsguru.com
Click to expand...
We don't grt to see the underlying methodologies but they're vastly different

The money puck one has the Bruins odds at 81%. The Hockey Reference one has them at 42% and the one you linked has them at 62%.

Without knowing anything about them, I'd guess the money puck one has the simplest methodology. The Bruins have a big negative goal differential and a difficult remaining schedule.
 
UglyPuckling said:
A 1st round match up against Boston seems unlikely.

Hopefully I have this correct, but playoff matchups work as follows:
  • 1st place team (in Eastern Conference) will play the 8th place team (in the Conference).
  • 2nd will play 7th; and,
  • 3rd will play 6th.
So, if the season ended today, 1st place Washington (might end up being NJD, just guessing) would play 8th place Ottawa.

If Ottawa moves up to 7th, they’ll play the 2nd place team.

If Ottawa plays a really strong 2nd half season and ends up with more points than Boston and Tampa, they’ll finish in 6th place and face the 3rd place team. So, if this were to happen, it's possible we could end up playing Toronto.

NJD, Washington, Carolina, Florida & Toronto seem like the safest bets right now for the top 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference. Boston would have to get really hot along with two of these 5 teams seriously faltering for Boston to get to one of the top 3 conference seeds.
Click to expand...
The way it was working was

2nd versus 3rd in each division. 1st oa in the conference against 8th. Other division winner against 7th

If ottawa moves up to 7th, they'd play the lower of the division winners

If we were to end up with more than Boston and Tampa, I assume you also mean behind Toronto and Florida so 3rd in our division. We'd play the 2nd place team in our division

Looking at this link, the process above is still intact
www.nhl.com

Playoff Format | NHL.com

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
 
JD1 said:
We don't grt to see the underlying methodologies but they're vastly different

The money puck one has the Bruins odds at 81%. The Hockey Reference one has them at 42% and the one you linked has them at 62%.

Without knowing anything about them, I'd guess the money puck one has the simplest methodology. The Bruins have a big negative goal differential and a difficult remaining schedule.
Click to expand...
I took a closer look after posting and the one I liked is just an average of money pucks and numberfire, so it would have made more sense to just post numberfire

NHL Team Power Rankings

NHL Team Power Rankings on numberFire, your #1 source for projections and analytics.
www.numberfire.com

Hockey ref has a really old methodology from what I understand, and it's based mostly on goals for vs against types of stats, I remember finding a write up on it years ago.

Money puck does actually provide some info on their methodology

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
 
JD1 said:
The way it was working was

2nd versus 3rd in each division. 1st oa in the conference against 8th. Other division winner against 7th

If ottawa moves up to 7th, they'd play the lower of the division winners

If we were to end up with more than Boston and Tampa, I assume you also mean behind Toronto and Florida so 3rd in our division. We'd play the 2nd place team in our division

Looking at this link, the process above is still intact
www.nhl.com

Playoff Format | NHL.com

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
Click to expand...
OK thanks. I was looking at a different website before I posted. It was a bit confusing.

Yes, your 4th paragraph is what I meant by moving past Boston & Tampa in points and landing in 3rd in the Atlantic division. Based on today’s standings, its probably either Florida or Toronto we’d face in this scenario.

If we end up in 7th (in the conference), interestingly it could be either Florida or Toronto we’d face again as one of those 2 teams would likely be the lower divisional winner. These 2 scenarios are based on current standings (and standings based on points), so things could change.
 
Micklebot said:
I took a closer look after posting and the one I liked is just an average of money pucks and numberfire, so it would have made more sense to just post numberfire

NHL Team Power Rankings

NHL Team Power Rankings on numberFire, your #1 source for projections and analytics.
www.numberfire.com

Hockey ref has a really old methodology from what I understand, and it's based mostly on goals for vs against types of stats, I remember finding a write up on it years ago.

Money puck does actually provide some info on their methodology

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
Click to expand...
 
Here are the 2024 calendar year numbers from Sens players.

www.nhl.com

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
 
Ottawa beat the Leaves in the conference finals to get to the Cup final but lose to Winnipeg in 7 games and the Jets win on home ice
 
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With Ullmark playing up to his potential and significant improvement in Team defense, we are good enough to not finish bottom 5 in our conference, so the most realistic prediction is we finish 5 points out of a wildcard spot.

You can only do so much with 1 legit elite player who himself is very inconsistent, and continuously go on long scoreless droughts. Racking up assists are good and all but he needs to score those damn goals, too
 
www.quanthockey.com

NHL Standings 2024-2025

NHL Standings based on games between Dec 1, 2024 and Apr 18, 2025.
www.quanthockey.com www.quanthockey.com

Since Dec 1, 2024:

1st in the Atlantic
2nd in the east
5th in the entire league

Now, they have played a few more games than some teams around them. So, if all was equal, they might drop 1-2 spots.

Overall, this is pretty damn good. And unless the bottom falls out, they should make the playoffs with comfort.

If they maintain their pace of the last 27 games, and earn 1.30 points per game, they could finish at 97-98 points... this could tie them for their best record in 17 years.

We might be able to exhale.
 
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Ottawa seems to be one of the most improved teams in the NHL this yr, of the teams we are in contention with I think we can beat Toronto, Tampa or Boston while Florida will be much tougher to beat but not impossible. While I doubt we take our Division this yr, I certainly think we have taken a big step forward & think we have most of the players required to win this Division. Winning the Conference will require a few more players of consequence. Tampa, Boston & Florida all have great goaltending & it will take some great play to beat them & the Sens are capable of it.
 
Tuesday Feb 3, 2025.

Sice Dec. 1, 2024. The Sens have played 30 games. Have 41 points. They are tied for #1 overall in the league with the Jets and Stars.. Ranked 3rd, due to tie breaking rules.

At 1.37 points per game, they are tied with the above 3 teams for 2nd overall, behind the Oilers and Caps.

So they rank anywhere from #3 to # 5 overall.

at 1.37 points per game, a season's total would be(at 82 games played) 112 points. I believe their highest ever.. But, YES, using simple math to project a whole season is not accurate.

Now, with 53 games played, so 29 games left. 29 games left at 1.3 to 1.4 PPG, is? 37 p to 40 p added. Yielding a 99-102 point season..... Best in 18 years. people may remember that year fondly.


The Euge Passes on and sells. Michael A takes over 1 year and some 6 months ago
Pierre D is let go 1 year 3 months ago
DJ is let go 1 year 2 months ago
Sens shuffle the deck on nearly 2/3 of all their employees (senior employees, off ice and on) 6 months to 1.5 years ago

And 1 year onwards, FYOUS starts....coincidence??? f*** NO

Had the Euge not passed (yet still sold), he would have died anyway. This time of shame!!!!

It could be a while before Dorion works again. DJ's days as an HC may become a tad more difficult. Although to be fair, LA Kings are doing well and that might bode well for him.

An 18 year nightmare is over... We can now remove the Garlic garlands, hang the witch and put the Rosery away.
 
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