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2025 Prediction

Micklebot

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
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Schedule is pretty favourable in the second half of the year, depending on what model you look at we either have the 5th easiest or 12th easiest remaining schedule

I think this team can do it, health permitting.

Zub should give us a boost soon enough, hopefully Ullmark isn't out long.
 
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Big Muddy

Big Muddy

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Dec 15, 2019
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If we can get past Boston and Tampa in points somehow, I think we’d play Toronto in the 1st round. :naughty:

If stay where we are (last wild card spot), I think we’d play NJD.

This is based on the current standings.
 
BoardsofCanada

BoardsofCanada

Registered User
Aug 26, 2009
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I think they can go toe to toe with any in the league. What we're missing is consistent goaltending. Healthy Ullmark, maybe a fired up Forsberg? Maybe Merilainen steals the backup job? Gun to my head, I think they make it. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh is the main rival for that final spot. right now.
As for a prediction on a 1st round playoff match up: we lose in 7 games.
 
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Samboni

Samboni

Registered User
Jan 26, 2014
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Four things that I believe are key to making the playoffs:
1) reliable goaltending
2) everyone playing a 200’ game
3) getting 5v5 scoring
4) staying healthy
 
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bicboi64

Registered User
Aug 13, 2020
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If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
16,472
10,169
bicboi64 said:
If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
Click to expand...
I don't think Boston is going to make the playoffs but if we were to play them, I think we'd blow them out.

If we have a healthy Ullmark this team can beat any team in the playoffs. I think we'd lose in the 2nd round though
 
UglyPuckling

UglyPuckling

Registered User
May 14, 2021
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bicboi64 said:
If we make the playoffs and face Toronto, we get to the 2nd round.

Against Tampa, Boston, or Florida we lose but take each series to at least 6 games
Click to expand...
A 1st round match up against Boston seems unlikely.

Hopefully I have this correct, but playoff matchups work as follows:
  • 1st place team (in Eastern Conference) will play the 8th place team (in the Conference).
  • 2nd will play 7th; and,
  • 3rd will play 6th.
So, if the season ended today, 1st place Washington (might end up being NJD, just guessing) would play 8th place Ottawa.

If Ottawa moves up to 7th, they’ll play the 2nd place team.

If Ottawa plays a really strong 2nd half season and ends up with more points than Boston and Tampa, they’ll finish in 6th place and face the 3rd place team. So, if this were to happen, it's possible we could end up playing Toronto.

NJD, Washington, Carolina, Florida & Toronto seem like the safest bets right now for the top 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference. Boston would have to get really hot along with two of these 5 teams seriously faltering for Boston to get to one of the top 3 conference seeds.
 
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JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
16,472
10,169
Micklebot said:
Here's another one,

powerrankingsguru.com

NHL Playoff Odds

NHL team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.
powerrankingsguru.com
Click to expand...
We don't grt to see the underlying methodologies but they're vastly different

The money puck one has the Bruins odds at 81%. The Hockey Reference one has them at 42% and the one you linked has them at 62%.

Without knowing anything about them, I'd guess the money puck one has the simplest methodology. The Bruins have a big negative goal differential and a difficult remaining schedule.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
16,472
10,169
UglyPuckling said:
A 1st round match up against Boston seems unlikely.

Hopefully I have this correct, but playoff matchups work as follows:
  • 1st place team (in Eastern Conference) will play the 8th place team (in the Conference).
  • 2nd will play 7th; and,
  • 3rd will play 6th.
So, if the season ended today, 1st place Washington (might end up being NJD, just guessing) would play 8th place Ottawa.

If Ottawa moves up to 7th, they’ll play the 2nd place team.

If Ottawa plays a really strong 2nd half season and ends up with more points than Boston and Tampa, they’ll finish in 6th place and face the 3rd place team. So, if this were to happen, it's possible we could end up playing Toronto.

NJD, Washington, Carolina, Florida & Toronto seem like the safest bets right now for the top 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference. Boston would have to get really hot along with two of these 5 teams seriously faltering for Boston to get to one of the top 3 conference seeds.
Click to expand...
The way it was working was

2nd versus 3rd in each division. 1st oa in the conference against 8th. Other division winner against 7th

If ottawa moves up to 7th, they'd play the lower of the division winners

If we were to end up with more than Boston and Tampa, I assume you also mean behind Toronto and Florida so 3rd in our division. We'd play the 2nd place team in our division

Looking at this link, the process above is still intact
www.nhl.com

Playoff Format | NHL.com

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
 
Micklebot

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
58,055
36,059
JD1 said:
We don't grt to see the underlying methodologies but they're vastly different

The money puck one has the Bruins odds at 81%. The Hockey Reference one has them at 42% and the one you linked has them at 62%.

Without knowing anything about them, I'd guess the money puck one has the simplest methodology. The Bruins have a big negative goal differential and a difficult remaining schedule.
Click to expand...
I took a closer look after posting and the one I liked is just an average of money pucks and numberfire, so it would have made more sense to just post numberfire

NHL Team Power Rankings

NHL Team Power Rankings on numberFire, your #1 source for projections and analytics.
www.numberfire.com

Hockey ref has a really old methodology from what I understand, and it's based mostly on goals for vs against types of stats, I remember finding a write up on it years ago.

Money puck does actually provide some info on their methodology

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
 
UglyPuckling

UglyPuckling

Registered User
May 14, 2021
1,559
843
JD1 said:
The way it was working was

2nd versus 3rd in each division. 1st oa in the conference against 8th. Other division winner against 7th

If ottawa moves up to 7th, they'd play the lower of the division winners

If we were to end up with more than Boston and Tampa, I assume you also mean behind Toronto and Florida so 3rd in our division. We'd play the 2nd place team in our division

Looking at this link, the process above is still intact
www.nhl.com

Playoff Format | NHL.com

The official National Hockey League website including news, rosters, stats, schedules, teams, and video.
www.nhl.com www.nhl.com
Click to expand...
OK thanks. I was looking at a different website before I posted. It was a bit confusing.

Yes, your 4th paragraph is what I meant by moving past Boston & Tampa in points and landing in 3rd in the Atlantic division. Based on today’s standings, its probably either Florida or Toronto we’d face in this scenario.

If we end up in 7th (in the conference), interestingly it could be either Florida or Toronto we’d face again as one of those 2 teams would likely be the lower divisional winner. These 2 scenarios are based on current standings (and standings based on points), so things could change.
 
Sens of Anarchy

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
67,784
53,917
Micklebot said:
I took a closer look after posting and the one I liked is just an average of money pucks and numberfire, so it would have made more sense to just post numberfire

NHL Team Power Rankings

NHL Team Power Rankings on numberFire, your #1 source for projections and analytics.
www.numberfire.com

Hockey ref has a really old methodology from what I understand, and it's based mostly on goals for vs against types of stats, I remember finding a write up on it years ago.

Money puck does actually provide some info on their methodology

MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

About MoneyPuck, Models, Analytics, Corsi, Fenwick
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com
Click to expand...
 
Tuna99

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
16,476
8,386
Ottawa beat the Leaves in the conference finals to get to the Cup final but lose to Winnipeg in 7 games and the Jets win on home ice
 
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