Speculation: 2025 Off-season Thread

[Balthazar]

Lol what the f***?!

So a big issue is MacKinnon has really poorly timed changes?

Yes but even without the bad changes thing, Avs do worse when Makar is on the ice than when he isn't unless Mack is also in the ice.

I really wonder why.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Yes but even without the bad changes thing, Avs do worse when Makar is on the ice than when he isn't unless Mack is also in the ice.

I really wonder why.

If Nate jumping off the ice before Makar is having an impact, I'd have to wonder if Makar's extended shifts are the culprit. Nate got off the ice because his shift was up... Makar continues on but tired and more likely to get beat and be less effective. Shit like this was how Makar would end up with 30 minutes while Nate was getting closer to 25-26. Four minutes is a lot... especially if it is coming due to extended shifts.

 

[Foppa2118]

Lol what the f***?!

So a big issue is MacKinnon has really poorly timed changes?

Interesting.

Also, anyone who suggests signing Matt Duchene should be automatically banned. You don't pay players who perform as poorly in the playoffs as Duchene does anything more than 1M per.

I think JFresh is overthinking this, overlying on the data to tell the story, as usual.

When MacKinnon is on the ice, they probably have the puck and they're in the O zone = More shots for less against.

When MacKinnon goes off for a change, the other team probably has the puck, and Cale is stuck defending in the D zone = less shots for more against.

It doesn't mean anything. It's just an example of how misleading individual analytics can be, given hockey is situational.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

JFresh has never watched a game of hockey.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

JFresh has never watched a game of hockey.

He just sees it differeintly than us....

 

[EdAVSfan]

I think JFresh is overthinking this, overlying on the data to tell the story, as usual.

When MacKinnon is on the ice, they probably have the puck and they're in the O zone = More shots for less against.

When MacKinnon goes off for a change, the other team probably has the puck, and Cale is stuck defending in the D zone = less shots for more against.

It doesn't mean anything. It's just an example of how misleading individual analytics can be, given hockey is situational.

It’s weird, because that’s not completely what it’s showing. Because when both Mack and Makar aren’t on the ice, the Avs are somewhat even with their opponents.

 

[Foppa2118]

It’s weird, because that’s not completely what it’s showing. Because when both Mack and Makar aren’t on the ice, the Avs are somewhat even with their opponents.

Are you referring to the image below?

If so, that's a bit misleading as well, because it's missing the analytics of a full shift from MacKinnon and Makar together.

That "within 30 seconds of #29 going off on a change" is misleading as well. MacKinnon's shifts are longer than 30 seconds. When he jumps on, or takes an O zone face-off, there's probably some shots at the beginning that aren't included in that.

It's counting a fair bit of shifts where at the end, he was stuck defending in the D zone, but not at the beginning where he's getting shots. He rarely jumps on and starts defending right away.

The Makar within 30 seconds and Makar w/o MacK stats should be ignored, because he hasn't controlled for the situations I mentioned of having less shots for and more against when Nate goes for a change.

Put the full MacKinnon+Makar shift analytics above the first two, and I bet it has much higher numbers than the bottom one. It would mean the Avs are a good team, and have slightly above average numbers in the bottom 9, and very good numbers from the top line.

 

[Foppa2118]

Here's the full shift analytics of Makar with MacKinnon I was referring to @EdAVSfan.

See how heavy influenced that "within 30 seconds" situation is that JFresh chose to pick? I'm not sure why he included that.

Makar + MacKinnon (2024-25 5v5)

Corsi Attempts - 61.59%
Shots For % - 62.23%
xGF% - 61.83%

 

[Balthazar]

Here's the full shift analytics of Makar with MacKinnon I was referring to @EdAVSfan.

See how heavy influenced that "within 30 seconds" situation is that JFresh chose to pick? I'm not sure why he included that.

Initially he was trying to understand why the Avs are analytically so dominant with Makar and Mack together but very bad when Makar is there without Mack.

There's no dishonest hidden agenda going on. It's just stats.

 

[Foppa2118]

Initially he was trying to understand why the Avs are analytically so dominant with Makar and Mack together but very bad when Makar is there without Mack.

There's no dishonest hidden agenda going on. It's just stats.

I'm not saying he has an agenda, I'm just saying he has tunnel vision with his analytics, and isn't applying common sense.

He thinks he’s showing the impact of MacKinnon going off for a change, but what he’s doing is showing the impact of his cherry picked situation skewing the data toward shots against, and causing his analytics to be misleading, when drawing a conclusion from them.

At the end of MacKinnon’s shift, which the data includes, Nate is much more likely to be defending, then at the beginning of his shift, when they either time the changes on the fly for him to jump on with possession, or start him in the O zone, which the data does not include for that “within 30 seconds of MacKinnon going off on a change” stat.

74.26% of the time this year in the regular season, they either started Nate on the fly (which usually included possession in transition) or in the O zone at 5v5.

I couldn’t find average shift length at 5v5, but overall including a small percentage of power plays, MacKinnon’s average shift length was 57 seconds. Probably gets bumped up a tad with the PP’s, but that’s almost twice as long as the 30 second 5v5 sample JFresh cherry picked.

All of that makes the “within 30 seconds of MacKinnon going off on a change” stat heavily skewed toward shots against, because it’s not including the shots for at the beginning of the shift.

By cherry picking “within 30 of MacKinnon going off on a change” it’s not including roughly 27 seconds on average at the beginning of the shift, which is highly likely to either start with possession in transition, or start in the O zone.

Here’s the data.

MacKinnon (2024-25 5v5)

Average Shift Length (All Situations) - 00:57

Offensive Zone Starts - 317 - 19.57%
Defensive Zone Starts - 127 - 7.84%
Neutral Zone Starts - 290 - 17.90%
On The Fly Starts - 886 - 54.69%

 

[Foppa2118]

You can see how skewed toward shots against the data is in that "within 30 seconds of #29 going off on a change" stat when comparing it to the full shift. @Balthazar

There are a lot of shots and attempts for at the beginning of Nate's shift not being included.

2024-25 Makar + MacKinnon (Full Shift Together 5v5)

Attempts - 62%
Shots - 62%
xGF% - 62%

2024-25 Makar + MacKinnon (Within 30 seconds of #29 Going Off On Change 5v5)

Attempts - 31%
Shots - 29%
xGF% - 37%

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Is it really a shock that Makar’s Corsi caves when MacKinnon goes off on a change? How often does MacK go for a change because he is frustrated that he’s been stuck in the defensive zone?

 

[Balthazar]

Is it really a shock that Makar’s Corsi caves when MacKinnon goes off on a change?

What's crazy is how the team underperforms when Makar is on the ice and Mack isn't. In all situations. For 2 straight seasons.

He's only trying to find logical reasons why this is happening.

The way Mack is leaving the ice could explain some of it but even when this it's taken into consideration the team is still worse analytically with Makar than without Makar.

I'm not sure why people are shooting at the messenger here. This isn't on JFresh.

 

[Metallo]

I'm not saying he has an agenda, I'm just saying he has tunnel vision with his analytics, and isn't applying common sense.

He thinks he’s showing the impact of MacKinnon going off for a change, but what he’s doing is showing the impact of his cherry picked situation skewing the data toward shots against, and causing his analytics to be misleading, when drawing a conclusion from them.

At the end of MacKinnon’s shift, which the data includes, Nate is much more likely to be defending, then at the beginning of his shift, when they either time the changes on the fly for him to jump on with possession, or start him in the O zone, which the data does not include for that “within 30 seconds of MacKinnon going off on a change” stat.

74.26% of the time this year in the regular season, they either started Nate on the fly (which usually included possession in transition) or in the O zone at 5v5.

I couldn’t find average shift length at 5v5, but overall including a small percentage of power plays, MacKinnon’s average shift length was 57 seconds. Probably gets bumped up a tad with the PP’s, but that’s almost twice as long as the 30 second 5v5 sample JFresh cherry picked.

All of that makes the “within 30 seconds of MacKinnon going off on a change” stat heavily skewed toward shots against, because it’s not including the shots for at the beginning of the shift.

By cherry picking “within 30 of MacKinnon going off on a change” it’s not including roughly 27 seconds on average at the beginning of the shift, which is highly likely to either start with possession in transition, or start in the O zone.

Here’s the data.

MacKinnon (2024-25 5v5)

Average Shift Length (All Situations) - 00:57

Offensive Zone Starts - 317 - 19.57%
Defensive Zone Starts - 127 - 7.84%
Neutral Zone Starts - 290 - 17.90%
On The Fly Starts - 886 - 54.69%

This is 30s after Mack is off the ice. It's not that complex. Makar stats are worse when Mack just left the ice then when Makar is not playing with Mack, on average. Maybe something happens when Mack leaves the ice like poorly timed changes or Makar extends shifts too much when he should synch with Mack.

 

[Metallo]

Cale is s victorian-era frail boy with low blood iron levels that faints when he hears "worrying news from the continent". He also has frequent nose bleeds and can't go outside due to his pale complexion.

 

[MacKaRtin]

What's crazy is how the team underperforms when Makar is on the ice and Mack isn't. In all situations. For 2 straight seasons.

For 2 straight seasons we've had major injury and suspension problems leading to everyone aside from the first line being slotted too high in the lineup

We started 2023-2024 with RyJo as our 2C

We started 2024-2025 with Mittelstadt as our 2C

And further down the lineup only got worse. Looking back at some of the box scores during Fourgiev's and Annutherdonutn's last games for us,
it's kinda crazy really

 

[missionAvs]

Cale is s victorian-era frail boy with low blood iron levels that faints when he hears "worrying news from the continent". He also has frequent nose bleeds and can't go outside due to his pale complexion.

Frail. He's simply Frail.

 

[The Abusement Park]

For 2 straight seasons we've had major injury and suspension problems leading to everyone aside from the first line being slotted too high in the lineup

We started 2023-2024 with RyJo as our 2C

We started 2024-2025 with Mittelstadt as our 2C

And further down the lineup only got worse. Looking back at some of the box scores during Fourgiev's and Annutherdonutn's last games for us,
it's kinda crazy really

I really love how Cmac bargain bin shops in the offseason and leaves all his big moves till mid season. Like may as well start the season down a 2C and two goalies cuz why not.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

It’s weird, because that’s not completely what it’s showing. Because when both Mack and Makar aren’t on the ice, the Avs are somewhat even with their opponents.

Seriously? Both minutes?

 

[Balthazar]

For 2 straight seasons we've had major injury and suspension problems leading to everyone aside from the first line being slotted too high in the lineup

We started 2023-2024 with RyJo as our 2C

We started 2024-2025 with Mittelstadt as our 2C

And further down the lineup only got worse. Looking back at some of the box scores during Fourgiev's and Annutherdonutn's last games for us,
it's kinda crazy really

That doesn't explain why the team was better without Makar.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

That doesn't explain why the team was better without Makar.

Because Makar was tired when he played with the team due to extending his shits. Or even when he's just taking an extra shift. The fact is, he often times has played 30 minutes while Nate has played 25. Those "extra" five minutes can't be considered the same as his "first" five minutes. They are all coming above and beyond his normal playing time. There's a reason we look like shit in the playoffs. Nobody else is as wore out to begin the the thing. So the amount of "jump up" available to less weary players is more than the "jump up" available to our tired pups.

Bednar's system is preventing us from having MacKinnon and Makar performing optimally. It was preventing MacRantanen from reaching his true potential as well, I think. I just 25 minutes a night is stretching it for most and past that, you're reached the point of deminishing returns. Those deminishing returns are what you are seeing whem Makar is out without Nate. I'd argue that it would almost certainly be better to play the rest of the team rather than routinely have a line getting 25+ minutes a night. At least in the regular season. I see no reason for any player to play 30 minutes a night in the regular season. f*** those two points if you have to, the team isn't good enough if you have to ride Makar to 30+ minutes and MacKinnon to 27 on a nightly basis.

 

[the_fan]

I know Bednar isn’t perfect and he’s being criticized and maybe for a good reason, but I gotta ask you guys again, and I’ve asked this question before…

If we are comparing the Panthers who’s making deep runs year after year to Avs, answer me this. If Panthers lost Bennett to free agency, then replaced him with RyJo then Mittelstadt, then Nelson, and traded Tkachuk for Necas, do you honestly think Panthers would be this successful and make the finals 3 years in a row?

Remember, if they lost Bennett and traded Tkachuk it would be the equivalent of us losing Kadri and trading Mikko. I just don’t see how Panthers would win if they made those moves, no matter how good of a coach Maurice is

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I know Bednar isn’t perfect and he’s being criticized and maybe for a good reason, but I gotta ask you guys again, and I’ve asked this question before…

If we are comparing the Panthers who’s making deep runs year after year to Avs, answer me this. If Panthers lost Bennett to free agency, then replaced him with RyJo then Mittelstadt, then Nelson, and traded Tkachuk for Necas, do you honestly think Panthers would be this successful and make the finals 3 years in a row?

Remember, if they lost Bennett and traded Tkachuk it would be the equivalent of us losing Kadri and trading Mikko. I just don’t see how Panthers would win if they made those moves

They wouldn't have won in that situation, but that situation is pure fantasy. For one... Bill Zito is a god-damned champion. But he's a damn champion because he knows he's the GM of the Florida (Miami) Panthers. He would not have near the trouble CMac (in Denver) has in wanting to get players to go there. You ever wonder how many conversations CMac might have started about a guy who had a limited movement clause and was told no go? I don't, but from the way folks talk, Denver certainly is not a destination location for the majority of players. However, Miami is.

I have absolutely no doubts that BIll Zito would have fixed the problem better, sooner and at much less expense. He just has a lot going for him that no general manager of the Denver Avalanche will ever have.

 

[the_fan]

They wouldn't have won in that situation, but that situation is pure fantasy. For one... Bill Zito is a god-damned champion. But he's a damn champion because he knows he's the GM of the Florida (Miami) Panthers. He would not have near the trouble CMac (in Denver) has in wanting to get players to go there. You ever wonder how many conversations CMac might have started about a guy who had a limited movement clause and was told no go? I don't, but from the way folks talk, Denver certainly is not a destination location for the majority of players. However, Miami is.

I have absolutely no doubts that BIll Zito would have fixed the problem better, sooner and at much less expense. He just has a lot going for him that no general manager of the Denver Avalanche will ever have.

Yeah, Zito has an advantage being in Florida tax free state, beautiful cities and beaches and stuff, but we had the players, and all we had to do is keep them, but CMac let them go. It’s not like we didn’t have Naz and Mikko and had trouble finding those players because there are no beaches in Denver. Both Kadri and Mikko wanted to stay in Colorado, our stupid GM let them go

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Yeah, Zito has an advantage being in Florida tax free state, beautiful cities and beaches and stuff, but we had the players, and all we had to do is keep them, but CMac let them go. It’s not like we didn’t have Naz and Mikko and had trouble finding those players because there are no beaches in Denver

Well, our '22 team and entire team philosphy is built on Dmen out. So on some level I get how the Avs prioritized having both Girard and Manson. You've got to have two pairs you can roll with, especially when your third pair gets 5-6minutes. That being said... Joe started it but we got extremely wing heavy on contracts before the time came to sign our 2C. I know CMac's the GM of record for both Nuke and Lehky but they signed on the 11th and 13th of July 2022 respectively. CMac took over on July 11th. I would assume Joe had been heavily involved in the negotiations up to this point so I'm not willing to blame CMac solely for where we are in a cap useage.

I think it's pretty clear given the timeline the Avs completely mis-calculated on EJ's willingness to move on, hence the fluery of contracts in early July for Nuke and Lehky. I believe Kadri held out until mid August hoping for the Avs to get their ducks in a row.