NCAA/NCAA bound picks from 2017-2024
Mikey Anderson (4th)
Cole Hults (5th)
David Hrenak (5th)
Alex Turcotte (1st)
Braden Doyle (6th)
Andre Lee (7th)
Alex Laferriere (3rd)
Brock Faber (2nd)
Ben Meehan (6th)
Jack Hughes (2nd)
Jared Wright (6th)
Jack Sparkes (6th)
Hampton Slukynsky (4th)
Ryan Conmy (6th)
James Reeder (7th)
Certainly this list is all over the place, you could argue it features the three best value picks of the Blake-era in Faber, Anderson and Laferriere, (with Slukynsky shaping up to maybe be a 4th), and also the two worst value picks in Turcotte and Hughes. But yeah, the Kings don't seem to like going down that path in the 1st round and not as much in the 2nd either.
I don't know if the Kings have the same scouts for the upper midwest for the entire time, I know they hired the guy from Wisconsin who was working in the USHL, but they have been pretty good with Minnesota born players.
The NCAA is great place to develop prospects if you let the kids develop for 2-3 seasons, they are also usually much more NHL ready after being in a college system for a few years vs. a CHL system.
FWIW I kept a spreadsheet of picks Blake made, specific to nationality, league, position, handedness, size, etc (I also have Lombardi's spreadsheet somewhere). There were a few things that stood out to me:
19 of his 52 picks were from the OHL, the most plentiful league. Second most plentiful was Europe with 13. USHL (whith includes the USNTDP) was third with 11. Of his 52 picks, only 2 were out of the NCAA directly (Hughes and Hrenak). In fact, he made more picks which were from leagues at a lower level than major junior: Hampton Slukynsky (US High School), Braden Doyle (US High School), and Jack Sparkes (OJHL).
What I find also interesting is the few number of picks made out of the WHL and QMJHL; only 2 picks for each. JAD and Ziemmer are the only two players they drafted out of the WHL (both forwards). Incidentally, in the QMJHL, he's only taken two defensemen: Spence and Booth.
The nationality spread also sticks out quite a bit (I put Jordan Spence in "other" as he has Japanese heritage and was born in Australia). I was shocked to see they've actually drafted more Finns than Swedes.
Of course, this isn't a predictor. But it does show some trends of where they might have some more resources or confidence in leagues.
Regarding draft approach, I can understand swinging for the fences. I would usually aim for higher skill if the pick is higher. As the likelihood of becoming an NHLer goes down with higher picks, I especially prefer the ability to play "an NHL style game" with structure, pressure, and pace. But I get why you want to swing for the fences. We've both just seen so many players with pure skill flame out, and it sucks to lose them for nothing.
IF trends hold true, though, then the players we can expect are from the OHL, USNTDP/USHL or Swedish/Finnish. They draft more forwards in the first round than defensemen. And more often than not, they are average height (6-foot-0 or 6-foot-1).
Players slated to be available in the draft around where the Kings pick that fit that profile:
Milton Gastrin
Cole McKinney
Jack Murtagh
If you want to factor in that Byfield, Vilardi, and Greentree are all taller than 6-foot-2 as far as first round picks who are forwards, you could add Jack Nesbitt.
It's also unusual that, even though some of their best picks have been right-handed defensemen, it's the least common type of player they pick aside from goalies who catch right-handed. So, left-handed defensemen who could also be available would be Cameron Reid and Sascha Boumedienne.
Again, this is all assuming trends hold true. I genuinely believe a lot more goes into the scouting, but it will be interesting to see how much the pick fits into the mold, if at all.