2025 NHL DRAFT

[Predsanddead24]

Has there been a dman in the past 20ish or so years that's gone 1OA that's been a franchise player? Dahlin is the only one who comes to mind but it's not as if he's turned Buffalo around. A 1C will have a greater impact on your team than a 1D. Go after Dmen with the later 1st round picks, go after a 1C if you have a top 3 pick.

I get the point but if Buffalo had chosen to go top available C vs. top available player they'd have Kotkaniemi rather than Dahlin right now. All else being equal I agree you go C over D every time, but if the D is a significantly higher rated prospect than the C I think you have to go D. I'm not enough of a prospect watcher to have a personal opinion on if that is the case this year or not but it does seem like a lot of people think that.

 

[glenngineer]

It’s relatively rare that defensemen go 1OA, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they shouldn’t. Makar and Pronger jump to mind as guys that should have gone first

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

 

[glenngineer]

I get the point but if Buffalo had chosen to go top available C vs. top available player they'd have Kotkaniemi rather than Dahlin right now. All else being equal I agree you go C over D every time, but if the D is a significantly higher rated prospect than the C I think you have to go D. I'm not enough of a prospect watcher to have a personal opinion on if that is the case this year or not but it does seem like a lot of people think that.

I just worry he’s an Erik Johnson and while that’s not bad, it’s not worth a 1OA.

 

[wmupreds]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

My point is more that I don’t think drafting D at 1OA is something to necessarily avoid, if you’re confident the dman is the best talent.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

If you jump to 1, I think you have to entertain a trade back anywhere in the top 5. Most of us prefer Misa, but it seems there's a pretty close tier there. If you can pick up an additional 1st next year or the right good young C/RD, could definitely be worth it.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I just worry he’s an Erik Johnson and while that’s not bad, it’s not worth a 1OA.

Based upon what? Why not Drew Doughty, the last LHD this good from OHL?

 

[glenngineer]

Based upon what? Why not Drew Doughty, the last LHD this good from OHL?

Doughty went 2OA, Stamkos was 1OA that year. Same year we picked Wilson at 7OA. We could've picked Karlsson at 15OA that year and we traded down to acquire Pickard. Luckily we picked Josi in the 2nd round.

My point being, how many dmen have gone 1OA and been a game changer and as I stated earlier, Dahlin is the only one who's been worthy of that selection, however, it didn't move the needle to help Buffalo out of where they were and where they are today. A 1C has a higher likelihood of helping the team change course than a 1D.

I'm just super leery of drafting a D man 1OA because most, if not all don't live up to the hype of being a 1OA.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Doughty went 2OA, Stamkos was 1OA that year. Same year we picked Wilson at 7OA. We could've picked Karlsson at 15OA that year and we traded down to acquire Pickard. Luckily we picked Josi in the 2nd round.

My point being, how many dmen have gone 1OA and been a game changer and as I stated earlier, Dahlin is the only one who's been worthy of that selection, however, it didn't move the needle to help Buffalo out of where they were and where they are today. A 1C has a higher likelihood of helping the team change course than a 1D.

I'm just super leery of drafting a D man 1OA because most, if not all don't live up to the hype of being a 1OA.

My point is that guy like Schaeffer going 2nd is example of guy worthy of 1st pick. It’s happenstance that he was same year as Stamkos. Doughty, Pronger, Hedman, Makar- multiple D taken in top 5 that were 1oa worthy. Would you rather have laf or yak or even rnh? Take the best player.

 

[Kat Predator]

Doughty went 2OA, Stamkos was 1OA that year. Same year we picked Wilson at 7OA. We could've picked Karlsson at 15OA that year and we traded down to acquire Pickard. Luckily we picked Josi in the 2nd round.

My point being, how many dmen have gone 1OA and been a game changer and as I stated earlier, Dahlin is the only one who's been worthy of that selection, however, it didn't move the needle to help Buffalo out of where they were and where they are today. A 1C has a higher likelihood of helping the team change course than a 1D.

I'm just super leery of drafting a D man 1OA because most, if not all don't live up to the hype of being a 1OA.

Great defenseman do change games though. It's just not in a way that you can quickly google some stats to point at. If you have a guy that can consistently shutdown the other team's offense, say his presence suppressed an average of 1.5 goals a game on average (completely arbitrary number), then that is game changing.

On the other hand, there is a definite emphasis on scoring and if you can't score at all, you can't win at all.

On the third hand, a true great center is as much a defensive player as an offensive player. That's why they are so damn valuable. A great one is like picking a great scoring forward AND a great defenseman all rolled into one.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

Great defenseman do change games though. It's just not in a way that you can quickly google some stats to point at. If you have a guy that can consistently shutdown the other team's offense, say his presence suppressed an average of 1.5 goals a game on average (completely arbitrary number), then that is game changing.

On the other hand, there is a definite emphasis on scoring and if you can't score at all, you can't win at all.

On the third hand, a true great center is as much a defensive player as an offensive player. That's why they are so damn valuable. A great one is like picking a great scoring forward AND a great defenseman all rolled into one.

For me, #1C and #1D are essentially equal in value. My preference to get a F is driven by top 5 pick forwards, on the whole, having a way better success rate than top 5 pick D, while the reverse is true in later rounds. We have a much better shot at a #1D in the later rounds, but if we don't pick a #1C in the top 5, we aren't finding one.

 

[Kat Predator]

For me, #1C and #1D are essentially equal in value. My preference to get a F is driven by top 5 pick forwards, on the whole, having a way better success rate than top 5 pick D, while the reverse is true in later rounds. We have a much better shot at a #1D in the later rounds, but if we don't pick a #1C in the top 5, we aren't finding one.

Well, the good news is that we'll have a top 5 pick.

Unless Trotz blows it.

And if we keep Bozo, we may get a top 5 pick next year too.

 

[Scoresberg]

It's somewhat true, I mean no team pretty much ever has won without a true 1C but there are teams that have won without a 1D.

The Panthers last year had Montour as their 1D, who they let go to FA.

Penguins when they beat us had Ron Hainsey on their 1st pair. It was the year that Letang was out the whole playoffs.

Vegas in 2023 had Pietrangelo as their 1D, who's a really great player but borderlines on elite 1D.

That being said, I'm not seeing a 1C like Barkov, Eichel, MacKinnon, Point (the last five cup winner 1C's) in this draft. If Schaefer is so clear consensus pick to go 1OA, you have to go with him and figure out the 1C situation next summer.

 

[herzausstein]

Dahlin, Power, Ekblad, and Johnson are the only dmen taken 1st overall in the last 20 years.

Drafted 1st overall in the last 20 years
11C
5W
4D

Center is really the hardest position to acquire that game changing talent. If you want a high end 1C, you have to draft them and without a generous portion of luck on your side... you have to draft em in the top part of the 1st round.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

It's somewhat true, I mean no team pretty much ever has won without a true 1C but there are teams that have won without a 1D.

The Panthers last year had Montour as their 1D, who they let go to FA.

Penguins when they beat us had Ron Hainsey on their 1st pair. It was the year that Letang was out the whole playoffs.

Vegas in 2023 had Pietrangelo as their 1D, who's a really great player but borderlines on elite 1D.

That being said, I'm not seeing a 1C like Barkov, Eichel, MacKinnon, Point (the last five cup winner 1C's) in this draft. If Schaefer is so clear consensus pick to go 1OA, you have to go with him and figure out the 1C situation next summer.

Frondell is 2nd Coming of Barkov

Misa compares favorably with Eichel

 

[Scoresberg]

Frondell is 2nd Coming of Barkov

Misa compares favorably with Eichel

I don't think Frondell - stylistically - is anywhere close to Barkov. He's not a defensive center by any means and relies on his shot actually quite a lot in terms of creating offense rather than pure playmaking. I'd compare Frondell more to Pettersson than to Barkov.

Frondell's been quite underwhelming in the U18's since coming over from Sweden. Small sample size obviously and he hasn't had a ton of rest so will have to closely monitor him during the rest of the tournament.

If you're right about Misa, then great. Eichel's also developed into an absolute force defensively - which is why he's among the top Selke candidates this year. Misa's all about the offense, granted that can change over time. Misa's end of the year didn't create much hype for him, either.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Frondell is 2nd Coming of Barkov

Misa compares favorably with Eichel

If they are, then they are 1oa worthy. But I don’t think frondell measures up to Barkov in skill or size. He seems more like zibedinejad (sp?). Potential 1c but not elite. And I don’t see misa as dynamic as eichel. I’m not a scout, so I could be wrong, but that is my read. They are great prospects and rightfully top 5 picks, but I don’t see them at the can’t pass up level if we have chance at elite d.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If they are, then they are 1oa worthy. But I don’t think frondell measures up to Barlow in skill or size. He seems more like zibedinejad (sp?). Potential 1c but not elite. And I don’t see misa as dynamic as eichel. I’m not a scout, so I could be wrong, but that is my read. They are great prospects and rightfully top 5 picks, but I don’t see them at the can’t pass up level if we have chance at elite d.

Yeah, Frondell is more like Elias Lindholm maybe? Zibanejad is fine also. Desnoyers maybe like O'Reilly? And you introduced Tyler Seguin for Misa, which I like. None of these are franchise players. I'm not really sure Eichel is a true franchise player either, but a solid PPG #1C is still a very good player. It's just most scouts seem to project Schaefer as being something MORE than these types of players?

 

[Predsanddead24]

It's just most scouts seem to project Schaefer as being something MORE than these types of players?

Yeah I think the big thing in terms of the draft is that you can't frame it in terms of generic 1C vs. generic 1D. All else being equal I'd imagine nearly everyone would take the 1C. But at least from the scouting consensus that isn't really the choice here. Which scouts can be wrong so it is definitely possible that Misa/Hagens/whoever end up being better than Schaefer, but based on the available information I think you have to take Schaefer if given the choice.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Yeah, Frondell is more like Elias Lindholm maybe? Zibanejad is fine also. Desnoyers maybe like O'Reilly? And you introduced Tyler Seguin for Misa, which I like. None of these are franchise players. I'm not really sure Eichel is a true franchise player either, but a solid PPG #1C is still a very good player. It's just most scouts seem to project Schaefer as being something MORE than these types of players?

Sign me up for any of these guys. At this point we just have to hit.

 

[wintersej]

Bruins fan coming in peace trying to figure out what is going to be left over for the Bruins.

Y'all have a consensus favorite amongst Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers or Martone? My gut is telling me that perhaps unless Chicago is at 3 (and sounds like they like Frondell) Martone is going to fall because Nashville and Philly will both take a center.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Bruins fan coming in peace trying to figure out what is going to be left over for the Bruins.

Y'all have a consensus favorite amongst Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers or Martone? My gut is telling me that perhaps unless Chicago is at 3 (and sounds like they like Frondell) Martone is going to fall because Nashville and Philly will both take a center.

Our consensus is a center, but I don't think we have settled on who yet (nor do we have sense of what team thinks of the centers).

 

[LCPreds]

This might have been asked already but how does Schaefer compare to Seth Jones in terms of expected/projected career outcomes at draft time?

 

[Soundgarden]

Bruins fan coming in peace trying to figure out what is going to be left over for the Bruins.

Y'all have a consensus favorite amongst Hagens, Frondell, Desnoyers or Martone? My gut is telling me that perhaps unless Chicago is at 3 (and sounds like they like Frondell) Martone is going to fall because Nashville and Philly will both take a center.

I like Hagens or Frondell.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

This might have been asked already but how does Schaefer compare to Seth Jones in terms of expected/projected career outcomes at draft time?

New wave hockey just had Schaefer to Josi as a comparable

That comparison aside, I still don't want a D-Man in the first round

Here is where I am at

3rd-5th overall: Frondell,Hagens, Desnoyers (in that order but I'd be stoked with any of them)

Tampa Bay 1st: Carter Bear, Cullen Potter, Lyndon Lakovic, Brady Martin

Vegas 1st: Cole Reschny, Ivan Ryabkin

35th overall: Maxim Agofonov, Sascha Boumedienne

58th overall: Alex Zharovsky, Ryker Lee

 

[herzausstein]

New wave hockey just had Schaefer to Josi as a comparable

That comparison aside, I still don't want a D-Man in the first round

Here is where I am at

3rd-5th overall: Frondell,Hagens, Desnoyers (in that order but I'll be stoked with all of them)

Tampa Bay 1st: Carter Bear, Cullen Potter, Lyndon Lakovic, Brady Martin

Vegas 1st: Cole Reschny, Ivan Ryabkin

35th overall: Maxim Agofonov, Sascha Boumedienne

58th overall: Alex Zharovsky, Ryker Lee

If fiddler is available at one of the later 1st, I'd take him personally. That said if Bear or Lakovic are still available you take one of them.