I think you really just have to figure out what you think the realistic upside of Misa, Hagens, and Frondell really is?
I think there's actually quite a lot of doubt out there about ANY of them being "true #1C" players in the NHL, right? They can still be the #2/3/4 ranked players in this draft, and still not really make the cut as a "true #1C" hopeful. Maybe you're looking at Elias Lindholm or Sam Bennet or Dylan Strome or Jesperi Kotkaniemi or any of a host of "decent NHLers" who were top-5 picks in their drafts? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was #1OA. Or Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene. Unicorn "true #1C" types are rare... they skip most draft years entirely.
Whereas if the scouting opinion is that Schaefer actually is a "true #1D" with Norris superstar upside... obviously that's better than where the vast majority of randomly assorted top-5 drafted forwards ends up in the NHL.
So I don't think the question is really ever going to be about A) Winning the #1 pick in the Draft lottery (11.5% odds), then B) Picking somebody other than Schaefer #1OA. That's just not going to happen.
Our 88.5% odds of picking #2/3/4/5 are going to make the debate all about which of the available centers we think at least gives us the best chance at the best center we can get. The Schaefer talk is a red herring at this point.