Potential 2025 NHL Draft steals, Schaefer vs. Misa, Hagens’ slip: Wheeler mailbag
By
Scott Wheeler
31
March 27, 2025 7:00 am EDT
On Tuesday, I released my
latest ranking for the 2025 NHL Draft. On Wednesday, you submitted more than 100 questions for the post-ranking mailbag.
Today I’ve answered a bunch of the big ones in depth, talking Michael Misa versus Matthew Schaefer, potential risers late in the year, potential steals outside the top 40, James Hagens’ slip from the top of the draft at the start of the year, prospects from this draft with a chance to play in the NHL next year, how this draft stacks up historically, where the drop-offs are and more.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it below, I’ve been chipping away at the rest of the submissions here.
Matthew Schaefer hasn’t played since the World Juniors and Michael Misa is having a season for the ages, yet Schaefer ranks No. 1 on almost every list. What seems to be the differentiator between the two that scouts have already seen enough of Schaefer? — Code L.
For the season Misa has had (comparable with Mitch Marner’s and Dylan Strome’s draft year), he seems not to be getting as much hype as one would expect. Are there concerns in the scouting sphere about his game or his numbers being inflated? — Aidan F.
I felt like I had to start with these, because they’ve become the most common question of late.
I think part of it has to do just with the difference between what fans and casual followers see and the likelihood that they’ll be wrapped up with whatever has happened recently and what scouts still remember. Fans see records falling and 134 points, and passing guys like Marner and Strome, and know Misa from the exceptional status he was awarded, and it’s easy to get wrapped up in that.
Scouts do too, and have. Misa’s stock is hot right now for everybody, not just for fans. He was the best player in the OHL basically from start to finish and he did it as a 6-foot-1 center who was the captain of his team and has skill, skating and smarts. I think he’s got a compelling case for No. 1 and would consider drafting him there.
But scouts also remember just how good Schaefer was at all of the major events and measuring-stick moments of the year. Schaefer was the best player on the ice at the Hlinka. He was going end-to-end when he got back from mono in the OHL. He was head and shoulders above everyone on the ice at the two CHL-USA Prospects Challenge games in November, on ice he shared with Misa — and Misa was great in those games, and it still wasn’t close! He stood out at Canada’s World Junior selection camp playing with first-round picks from 2023 and 2024 just a few months after his 17th birthday. He was arguably Canada’s best defenseman through four periods during the actual tournament before the injury.
I think there are times when scouts hang onto a big showcase or tournament performance or two a little too tightly — Vasily Podkolzin and others have been carried at the draft by big international events despite warning signs in league play over the years. But when you start to add all of them up for Schaefer, it’s really not as small a sample as fans seem to have in their head. And when you add the world-class skating (I can count on one hand the number of defensemen I’ve watched who can fly like he can), that September birthday, who he is as a person (an awesome kid) and his smarts on the ice, it’s not everyday that a D prospect of his caliber comes around and teams still value top D above all else.
And that has nothing to do with Misa, who scouts don’t actually have concerns with after his play this year (there were some who wanted to see him really own his ice more last year). Misa’s numbers aren’t inflated, either. He led the league in even-strength production. He created his own offense short-handed, where his seven points were one back of tying for the most in the league. He led the next-closest forward on his team by 51 points and was playing at two points per game before Igor Chernyshov joined him in the second half and they torched the league together.
Misa is a star prospect. But there are some who feel like Schaefer is an undeniable one. I expect it’ll come down to which team wins the lottery.
Which prospects in the 2025 NHL Draft could sneak up the board late with a good playoff stretch/U18s/combine performance? Are there any guys who are going to fall outside the top 40 or so that have a chance to turn into a steal? — Hayley K.
I think U18s could be a really important showcase for Czechia’s Radim Mrtka to prove he’s a top-10 pick. I’d like to see Blake Fiddler join Team USA and look like the top D they’ve missed if I’m going to move him from the late 20s to the early 20s.
But U18 worlds might be most important for little guys Adam Benak, Cameron Schmidt and L.J. Mooney — and Mooney in particular after he was very good at last year’s tournament. Frankly, all of the NTDP kids need to show up at U18s and prove some people wrong. William Moore, Jack Murtagh and Cole McKinney could all go in the first or second. The one that plays the best in Texas probably earns a first-round pick.
James Hagens’ play in the national championship tournament is going to be important for the teams picking near the top. I want to see Porter Martone elevate a Brampton team that hasn’t met expectations this year (injuries are a factor in that). Caleb Desnoyers leading Moncton to a QMJHL title or Memorial Cup could move his top-five selection from pencil to pen.
I think a strong playoffs on a strong Brantford team for Jake O’Brien against some of the bigger, stronger top D in the OHL solidifies him as a top-10 pick. He may go there regardless, but if he fades in the playoffs, his lack of strength/five-on-five scoring could be a talking point.
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There’s a lot of important hockey left to be played for a lot of these kids, even as some others are already done with their seasons.
As for potential steals outside the top 40, I think Ryker Lee is probably going to be the most purely talented player taken on Day 2 and while he’s got work to do to get stronger and up his pace, if he goes outside the top 40 I’d be excited to bet on his skill level. Same goes for Jakob Ihs-Wozniak and Benak. Each comes with some risk (and could go top-40), but you’re not getting risk-free players outside the top 40. I like Alex Huang in the late second or third as well.
James Hagens started the year in the top spot. Now he’s settling somewhere outside the top two. Has he been that underwhelming, or is this a case of the field catching (and passing) him? — Chris P.
It’s never black-and-white with these things. Hagens is still the player who broke the U17 and U18 worlds single-tournament scoring records. He’s still the kid who, in his draft-minus-one season, had one of the most productive seasons in the history of the NTDP. He still led Team USA in ice time at the World Juniors in his draft year, playing 1C and leading them to a gold medal. He has still played to a point per game as a freshman at college this season. That’s the same rate as Matty Beniers (who was drafted No. 2, won the Calder and makes $7.1 million in the NHL) and Kent Johnson (who was drafted No. 5 and is now one of Columbus’ leading scorers). But it wasn’t what Macklin Celebrini did, or what Adam Fantilli did.
Hagens is 5-foot-10ish. NHL scouts wanted to see him score more this season. There were games against some of the bigger college teams where he had a bit of a tough time. And that took him out of the No. 1 conversation when Schaefer and Misa surged and put him into the conversation with a small second group, and there are some teams who now favor Anton Frondell or Desnoyers. But Hagens is still going to go at the tippy-top of the draft.
It’s not over yet, either. He still has as many as four games left to play, and if he and BC can go on a run to a national championship and he can make some big plays along the way, it could be the difference between him going third or fourth and fifth or sixth. Knowing the kid and the player, I wouldn’t bet against him.
Who in your Tier 5 (17-35 on your list) has the highest potential to end up top 10 in a redraft five years from now? — Bear C.
I think Brady Martin and Lynden Lakovic, the two players right at the front of that group, are the safest bets to be impactful top-nine forwards. The question with both is whether they’ll have the point totals, PP1 role and true top-six usage that’s usually required to go top-10 in a redraft, especially five years from now when they’ll still be early in their NHL careers and they won’t likely start in those roles. I could see both growing into it and becoming top-10 redraft guys in 10 years. Martin in particular.
Ivan Ryabkin has the talent, but I don’t think he has it in him or between the ears. Cameron Schmidt could pop with his speed and scoring, but comes with some risk at his size. Benjamin Kindel might have a chance if he ends up in the right organization, with the right coach, and makes his combination of skill, smarts and work ethic so undeniable at 5-foot-10 that an NHL team can’t help but give him opportunities to play high in a lineup, where I think he might someday be capable of taking advantage of the right opportunity. I’m a big believer in Cam Reid, the player and the kid, rising, but I don’t know if it’ll be as far as the top 10.
Ryker Lee won’t go top-10 in a redraft as a slight winger, but I want to give him some love for a second time in this mailbag because the skill level there really is tantalizing.
How many prospects in this year’s draft do you see as having a realistic chance to jump straight to the NHL? — Nick C.
How many of these guys are capable of playing in the NHL next year? Is this more of a long-term development draft at the top than in previous years? — Adam S.
Misa and his team (both his NHL team and his team around him at his agency, Wasserman) will have the most interesting decisions to make. If they decided that after a 134-point season in the OHL and three seasons in the league because of his exceptional status, he has nothing left to learn in junior and he goes the college route, then he can’t sign and the NHL is not an option for him. I’d strongly consider one year of college if I were advising him. If he decides to sign, I would think there are very good odds he starts in the NHL. If he sticks, that’s great news for him and whoever drafted him. If he doesn’t, he goes to the World Juniors as a top-six forward for Team Canada and chases another Memorial Cup — with Saginaw if they can build a top team around him, or in a trade somewhere else.
Defensemen almost never play in the NHL at 18 and Schaefer will have celebrated his birthday just days before the opening of camps, but if someone can do it, it might be him. The skating and brain are there. I would think, though, with the time he missed this season and his age, that he goes back to junior for a year and wears the “C” for Canada at the World Juniors.
Frondell is under contract for next season and also missed time this year. Hagens will return to BC. Desnoyers will be in Moncton or the NCAA (where he has serious interest). Martone will be in the OHL.
And I don’t think there’s a Jett Luchanko outside that top-six group. I could maybe see Justin Carbonneau or Brady Martin have a good camp and be those guys that stick around until the end to get cut in a best-case scenario.
There’s a chance that there are zero prospects from the 2025 class in the NHL next year, though.
How does this year’s draft class stack up historically? Top-heavy? Depth? Where is the large drop off? — Justin K.
I’d handicap it somewhere between slightly below average and average. It doesn’t have a Connor Bedard or a Macklin Celebrini. Its top five doesn’t stack up with 2023’s and its top 12 doesn’t stack up with 2024’s either. But I also think it’s a better draft than 2022 and 2021 were, and maybe we’ve just been spoiled the last couple of years.
The play of Misa and Schaefer (when he was healthy) has helped to offset some of the softening for some on Hagens and Martone, plus the effects of injuries on Frondell and Roger McQueen.
I did struggle to fill out the bottom of my top 64, though. Matthew Gard at No. 55 was really the last player on the list that I felt
had to be in there, and then it became about finding nine more guys that I liked enough to include. At this point in the year, I’m normally struggling with which nine guys to cut, not which nine guys to include.
(Photo of James Hagens: Eric Canha / Imagn Images)
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