2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Barrie22]

No. You don't risk stunting the rest of the young guys and furthering the losing culture here for a small chance at winning the lottery. You'd have to be absolutely dead last for the third year in a row to have anything more than a 13.5% chance at winning McKenna. Those odds aren't worth it.


The Devils got exceptional lottery luck, without which they wouldn't be an exciting rebuild; they wouldn't have Hischier, Hughes, or Nemec without it and would basically be a lame tweener team right now, if that. The Avs made the playoffs in Mackinnon's rookie year and had very respectable seasons in 2015 and 2016, had one awful season in 2017, made the playoffs again in 2018 and 2019 (they got Byram from the Duchene trade, not from tanking). The Sharks being absolutely hot garbage between 2020 and 2027 would not remotely similar to either of those situations.

But at the same time if you try coming out of the rebuild without enough talent, then you just keep going around the cycle of rebuild to rebuild like the sabres and the oilers of the 2010's.

And there isn't much talent available good enough to help us drastically at getting us out quickly.

 

[sampler]

Trying to finish last to get more picks is not a good strategy anymore. Young players do far far better when integrated slowly into respectable teams with littler pressure to perform. That's how the sharks managed to be a contender for 20 years! the drafted well, but they never rushed guys, and rookies were never counted on to be load bearing players right off the bat. Virtually all began in the AHL and had to earn a call up, and most didnt become regular NHLers until 22 or 23 years old.

The sharks needs to start adding mid/late 20s quality vets, especially on the back end, and they should start right away.

Note: If we are talking about possible 1OA in 2027, then we will have spent the entirety of Mack and Will's ELC's tanking. What a tremendous waste of two potential stars signed for 925k each.

We need to start building a quality veteran roster now whether by trade or UFA, or most likely, both.

Hopefully we get Schaefer in this draft. then, we have our goalie of the future (askarov). Two top pair D of the future (Dickinson and Schaefer), and an army of large forwards of the future (chernyshov, Musty, haltunnen, Bystedt, Lund..) not to mention mack, Smith, Eklund, Graf already in the NHL. That's enough future and it means it's time to add quality veterans at the right age and start competing for real.

I am disappointed that the team is where it is right now. I would be extremely disappointed to see it again next year. The sharks lost a ton of close games earlier this year, so if grier does well this summer, many of those close losses should become close wins and the team can get respectable. It's time to start building a winner. Playoffs is a stretch for next year, but being 8-10th worst is not. Then, Playoffs in 2026-7 should be a realistic goal, with legit contention in the years following. By October/November 2026, Dick will be 20, cherny 21, Musty 21, Haltunnen 21, Bystedt 22... All those guys should be getting pretty much ready to step into lineup and contribute alongside 20 year old mack, 21 year old smith, 23 year old eklund. if we are still talking about a 1OA with that kind of team, it would stink.

 

[Jargon]

We have the best prospect pool in the league. I hope, I hope, I hope, we come away from this draft with our future #1 defenseman and then have Askarov / Schaefer / Celebrini as the backbone with support from some of Smith, Eklund, Chernyshov, Musty, Zetterlund, Haltunnen, Dickinson, Cagnoni, etc.

That should be more than enough to build a winning team around and by build I don’t mean that every single guy has to hit, but I mean a combo of some of those guys, others used as trade chips and then pick ups in FA.

We don’t need to tank for 2-3 more seasons, dear god. The fact is, even if we’re much improved next season we should still be picking fairly high and get another big piece… but if we’re finishing bottom 3 again for McKenna and DuPont, things aren’t going well.

 

[Juxtaposer]

But at the same time if you try coming out of the rebuild without enough talent, then you just keep going around the cycle of rebuild to rebuild like the sabres and the oilers of the 2010's.

And there isn't much talent available good enough to help us drastically at getting us out quickly.

So four top-7 picks isn't enough talent, in addition to Dickinson and Askarov? You can't make a whole lineup out of top-3 picks.

Again, we're going to be picking top-10 again next year too, and even raising the bar that high is ambitious. Making major improvements to the team we have now will still result in a top-5 pick next year with a decent shot at McKenna. We don't need to try to tank, we need to try to improve, and even if we succeed at that we'll still be collecting a top-5 talent next season.

The Oilers' and Sabres' problems were never too little talent, they were an inability to support and build around that talent.

 

[sampler]

We have the best prospect pool in the league. I hope, I hope, I hope, we come away from this draft with our future #1 defenseman and then have Askarov / Schaefer / Celebrini as the backbone with support from some of Smith, Eklund, Chernyshov, Musty, Zetterlund, Haltunnen, Dickinson, Cagnoni, etc.

That should be more than enough to build a winning team around and by build I don’t mean that every single guy has to hit, but I mean a combo of some of those guys, others used as trade chips and then pick ups in FA.

We don’t need to tank for 2-3 more seasons, dear god. The fact is, even if we’re much improved next season we should still be picking fairly high and get another big piece… but if we’re finishing bottom 3 again for McKenna and DuPont, things aren’t going well.

Completely agree. well said...

Time for grier to take that #1 prospect (which is about to get richer) and start getting some good quality vet talent in the house.

I noticed that the vast majority of our future pool, especially, those with size, are at forward. Dick is the only grade A D prospect. Hopefully Schaefer joins, but personally, I feel its a whole lot easier to build a team using high quality vet D and young gun forwards. D is just such a hard position to learn and so much pressure I think vet D is good direction to go.

Right now, all due respect to ferraro and liljgren, walman is the only legit top 4 NHL dman we have. Dick is the only legit NHL top 4 D prospect (although I have high hopes for Mukh, Thompson, pohlcamp, cagnoni, etc but I can't expect them to step into top 4 roles). We need to add at least 2 more high quality NHL D to build a respectable team.

I hope grier can do it, because as you aptly wrote, the young core should be good enough to be legit awesome after the 2025 NHL draft is complete, so the actual real roster building should be on the way.

 

[Star Platinum]

If I recall correctly, Oilers had 4 1st draft picks between 2010-15 (nuge, hall, yakupov, mcdavid), and a top 3 in drai.

And other than a brief blip in McDavid's second year where they finished second in their division and won one round of the playoffs, they stayed bad until three seasons after that. That's eight out of nine years of no playoffs.

Tanking for the #1 pick every year and waiting for everyone to mature is not a strategy by itself. You need a few key star players and then you have to fill in the rest of the team around them.

 

[sampler]

So four top-7 picks isn't enough talent, in addition to Dickinson and Askarov? You can't make a whole lineup out of top-3 picks.

Again, we're going to be picking top-10 again next year too, and even raising the bar that high is ambitious. Making major improvements to the team we have now will still result in a top-5 pick next year with a decent shot at McKenna. We don't need to try to tank, we need to try to improve, and even if we succeed at that we'll still be collecting a top-5 talent next season.

The Oilers' and Sabres' problems were never too little talent, they were an inability to support and build around that talent.

Thats the key. You don't build a winner just by drafting. You have to trade well, sign well, and be strategic around your top draft choices.

For the oilers, obviously, mcdavid (#1), Draisaitl (#3), bouchard (#10), RNH (#1), Nurse (#7) are all top 10 picks. But, they also made a nice signing in Hyman, a great trade for ekholm, and some other deft moves. Of course, players like mcdavid are pretty rare, but even still, it was the complementary pieces that have also made a big difference.

the sabres didnt get quite the talent of a mcdavid or draisaitle but they also have failed to build around their top picks very well. Power and Dahlin, two #1OA, should give you the base for a super D. Add in Byram and they should have one of the best D in the league, but instead they are so so, as they immediately thrust power and dahlin into the top pair role too fast, and they are missing a quality vet leader on the blueline too as having all your top D 24 or younger sounds great, but its not ideal. Ekholm solidified the Edmonton Defense. Buffalo lacks that kind of vet leader on the back end. many of their forwards are still in development or were not great picks as cozens (#7) and Quinn (#8) have struggled and their other top picks like Rosen (#14), Ostlund (#16), Savoie (#9) are not yet NHLers. Add in a (mostly) bust like Alex Nylander (#8) and it's not a recipe for success.

Buffalo did not draft particularly well and then did not add vets properly.

The sharks rebuild will be wildly successful and soon if they begin building a veteran laden roster that allows all their young prospects in the #1 pool to ease their way up. Walman is a great piece. Trade for Dobson. Sign Ekblad. Sign Bennett or Boeser. Begin to add more veteran leaders to line up with the kids and allow the sharks to win some games even if mack or smith have an off game.

 

[Lebanezer]

So four top-7 picks isn't enough talent, in addition to Dickinson and Askarov? You can't make a whole lineup out of top-3 picks.

Again, we're going to be picking top-10 again next year too, and even raising the bar that high is ambitious. Making major improvements to the team we have now will still result in a top-5 pick next year with a decent shot at McKenna. We don't need to try to tank, we need to try to improve, and even if we succeed at that we'll still be collecting a top-5 talent next season.

The Oilers' and Sabres' problems were never too little talent, they were an inability to support and build around that talent.

This is where Grier has to prove himself and this is the truly difficult part of the rebuild.

 

[Shark Finn]

I'm not worried about not finishing last...I'm worried about that 55% chance we pick 3rd.

Looking it the other way around - still the highest chance of picking 1st.

I want to pick Schaefer at #2 this year, McKenna at #1 next year, and then I never want to pick below 10 again until I die or Celebrini retires, whichever comes first.

Hopefully the other bottom feeders see what Cherny is doing for Misa and take him at #1 so Schaefer is around for us instead.

If the Sharks finish last and end up with the 1st overall this year, they are still eligible to move up next year. Finishing last and picking 1st doesn't count as a lottery win.

 

[timorous me]

Brother, you want to be f***ing terrible for two whole more years just for the small percentage chance of winning a lottery on a guy who is 15 right now

Reading this in the voice of Hulk Hogan makes it hit even harder.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

For the oilers, obviously, mcdavid (#1), Draisaitl (#3), bouchard (#10), RNH (#1), Nurse (#7) are all top 10 picks. But, they also made a nice signing in Hyman, a great trade for ekholm, and some other deft moves. Of course, players like mcdavid are pretty rare, but even still, it was the complementary pieces that have also made a big difference.

You have the timing wrong in this example. The Oilers signed Hyman in 2021 after they made the playoffs. They traded for Ekholm in 2023 after they were already a solid playoff team. These were not acquisitions to improve into a playoff team.

 

[sampler]

You have the timing wrong in this example. The Oilers signed Hyman in 2021 after they made the playoffs. They traded for Ekholm in 2023 after they were already a solid playoff team. These were not acquisitions to improve into a playoff team.

I know. they become a PO team in mcdavid's second year once with lucic and marroon and larsson along with homegrown eberle and klefbom and others.

2021 was the first year (excluding 2016-17) when the oilers actually won a playoff game. Hyman helped with that and acquiring Ekholm made them a legit contender and solidified their D.

My point is that homegrown talent is not enough, even with the haul edmonton got for so many years of stinking.

I think the best pathway for SJ is to get some good vet D and continue adding proven pieces to build around the core.

 

[The411]

The “downside” of getting Celebrini is that some want to accelerate the timeline when the Sharks are about 8-10 players short and Celebrini needs a few years to develop.

The cap increasing so dramatically hurts the Sharks ability to acquire UFAs for the next few years.

Even if the Sharks do get Schaefer, he’s not going to be ready for a few years.

The Sharks aren’t going to be a playoff team for at least 3 seasons.

 

[Sharksfan66]

I know. they become a PO team in mcdavid's second year once with lucic and marroon and larsson along with homegrown eberle and klefbom and others.

2021 was the first year (excluding 2016-17) when the oilers actually won a playoff game. Hyman helped with that and acquiring Ekholm made them a legit contender and solidified their D.

My point is that homegrown talent is not enough, even with the haul edmonton got for so many years of stinking.

I think the best pathway for SJ is to get some good vet D and continue adding proven pieces to build around the core.

I agree, so here’s a crazy idea to try on: If the Sharks land at say 3 OA in the draft and Hagens is still on the board at 3, would you trade that pic to Boston for McAvoy?

I’m assuming Boston would do it to kickstart their rebuild around a BC kid. For us, this may be our best shot at a number 1D who fits Celebrini’s timeline if we miss out on Schaefer.

Thoughts??

 

[Grinner]

I agree, so here’s a crazy idea to try on: If the Sharks land at say 3 OA in the draft and Hagens is still on the board at 3, would you trade that pic to Boston for McAvoy?

I’m assuming Boston would do it to kickstart their rebuild around a BC kid. For us, this may be our best shot at a number 1D who fits Celebrini’s timeline if we miss out on Schaefer.

Thoughts??

I'd still rather use the pick.

 

[Star Platinum]

I'd still rather use the pick.

This forum has been Bad Idea Central lately. There is no magic speed up the rebuild cure.

 

[Lebanezer]

This forum has been Bad Idea Central lately. There is no magic speed up the rebuild cure.

Indeed. I understand people being impatient and wanting to speed things up, but the ideas being tossed around are only gonna set things back.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The “downside” of getting Celebrini is that some want to accelerate the timeline when the Sharks are about 8-10 players short and Celebrini needs a few years to develop.

The cap increasing so dramatically hurts the Sharks ability to acquire UFAs for the next few years.

Even if the Sharks do get Schaefer, he’s not going to be ready for a few years.

The Sharks aren’t going to be a playoff team for at least 3 seasons.

You are misinterpreting people wanting to improve the team as people wanting to "accelerate the timeline", or whatever.

This time eight months ago I patiently explained to people worried about "accelerating the timeline" that even by improving the team drastically, which we did, we would still be in last place, which we are. We can drastically improve again this summer and still comfortably draft top-5 next year. We could sign Mitch f***ing Marner and still comfortably be bottom-5 in the league next year. No one is trying to be a playoff team next year, because there is simply nothing we could possibly do to improve this team that much.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

I agree, so here’s a crazy idea to try on: If the Sharks land at say 3 OA in the draft and Hagens is still on the board at 3, would you trade that pic to Boston for McAvoy?

I’m assuming Boston would do it to kickstart their rebuild around a BC kid. For us, this may be our best shot at a number 1D who fits Celebrini’s timeline if we miss out on Schaefer.

Thoughts??

at 3, no.

If we somehow end up drafting 5-8 i think alot more about it. 4 is the highest i can be persuaded. Hagens, even if he does top out at as a 2C, will have alot of value down the line. Martone im just not sure will.

 

[STL Shark]

I'm not worried about not finishing last...I'm worried about that 55% chance we pick 3rd.

Nobody under this current system has fallen from last place outside of the top 2. I don't consider that a really reasonable fear at this point. 75% of the last place teams have kept the 1st overall pick with only Anaheim losing the top pick to someone else and drafting 2nd overall instead.

Yearly reminder the lottery is not rigged. No shot a big 4 accounting firm risks their reputation on a small fry like the NHL

As someone that works in public accounting and has for a decade, think you might give those guys way too much credit haha.

Don't think it is necessarily super rigged, but it's not because the accounting firms are righteous rule followers.

 

[sampler]

If the sharks end up with #1, take Schaefer and that's easy. If they end up #2, I hope they trade down to #4, and get a lot of value for that. Personally I like Misa and Martone over hagens, simply due to size. However, I fully expect they would get one or the other at 4 (likely Martone).

According to Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey ,

the value drop from #2 to #4 is approximately equivalent to the #20 overall pick. Nashville owns three first round picks: likely a top 4, around #20, and around #30 along with two second rounders. I bet, if they have a clear target, they would be willing to trade one of those picks to move up and get who they want at #2. If the sharks dropped from 2 to 4 and picked up the #20 overall, they could have another very valuable asset to trade for a solid vet D.

This summer, Grier needs to earn his keep. He has dumped all the talent he has (Burns, hertl, karlsson, meier, granny, Blackwood, etc) and acquired all the future assets he could. (aside from some depth picks for guys like sturm, kunin, or ferraro). He now has to be in talent ACQUISITION mode. This means that he has to be looking to add legit NHL talents either through UFA or especially through trade, since SJ is NOT a desirable destination for UFAs. Trade mastery is how DW brought in Jumbo, Burns, Boyle, Karlsson, Heatley, Kane, Dillon, Jones, and many others. Some of those worked out better than others of course, but DW built the 20 year competitive roster through deft drafting and alot of big trades followed by resigning and retaining that talent.

Grier needs to begin to do the same to build the roster.

 

[sampler]

I would add that no one is saying we should accelerate the rebuild as in sign every old UFA we can to max deals, and trade away a bunch of young talent to add more old guys. However, doing nothing and adding no top 4D and no top 6F means that we will almost surely be dead last again. I don't think you emerge from a rebuild be being dead last every year and continuing to burn your young gun cheap ELC years while adding 1-2 top future players (like in 5 years) per year.

A great team needs at least 9 good forwards, 4 or 5 top D, and a #1G. Right now, the sharks have maybe 4 top 9 forwards of the future (celly, smith, zetterlund, eklund) and zero top 4 D.Tthey have wennberg, toffoli, and kovalenko who might be top 9 forwards but not for long. in the pipeline, they have maybe 1 or 2 top 4D candidates, and maybe 2 or 3 top 9 forward candidates. They have a #1G.

So, they need to add at least 2 or 3 legit top 4 D. They also need to add at least 2 or 3 legit top 9 forwards, maybe even 4.

I think you cannot acquire that much talent in one summer. So the goal is not to go from dead last to playoffs in a year, but you do need to start that process, as it is very possible to add those 6 or 7 players over two or three summers. But, if you add no one for the long term plan this summer, you face a similar issue next summer and the rebuild doesnt get going.

This is why if Grier elects to sign a few guys to 1-3 year deals, it maintains nice flexibility, but it also does not put longer term pieces in place for the rebuild to begin.

 

[TheBeard]

If the sharks end up with #1, take Schaefer and that's easy. If they end up #2, I hope they trade down to #4, and get a lot of value for that. Personally I like Misa and Martone over hagens, simply due to size. However, I fully expect they would get one or the other at 4 (likely Martone).

According to Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey ,

the value drop from #2 to #4 is approximately equivalent to the #20 overall pick. Nashville owns three first round picks: likely a top 4, around #20, and around #30 along with two second rounders. I bet, if they have a clear target, they would be willing to trade one of those picks to move up and get who they want at #2. If the sharks dropped from 2 to 4 and picked up the #20 overall, they could have another very valuable asset to trade for a solid vet D.

This summer, Grier needs to earn his keep. He has dumped all the talent he has (Burns, hertl, karlsson, meier, granny, Blackwood, etc) and acquired all the future assets he could. (aside from some depth picks for guys like sturm, kunin, or ferraro). He now has to be in talent ACQUISITION mode. This means that he has to be looking to add legit NHL talents either through UFA or especially through trade, since SJ is NOT a desirable destination for UFAs. Trade mastery is how DW brought in Jumbo, Burns, Boyle, Karlsson, Heatley, Kane, Dillon, Jones, and many others. Some of those worked out better than others of course, but DW built the 20 year competitive roster through deft drafting and alot of big trades followed by resigning and retaining that talent.

Grier needs to begin to do the same to build the roster.

Teams aren't gonna move up from 4 to 2. There's really not a huge difference at that point between 2 and say 6. They certainly aren't going to give up whatever the point equivalent is.