2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Pinkfloyd]

If the Sharks have a choice between Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer, I sort of expect them to pick one of the forwards. If they have any sort of belief in just one or two of Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin, they may not prioritize Schaefer as a selection as much as another quality young forward can help this team in their rebuild. Another guy with a good shot at being 2C would be beneficial.

I can’t even imagine what the mental state of the franchise would be had we not gotten first overall

I'd imagine we would've done a lot of things differently and some guys would've had a more difficult path forward including Eklund and Smith.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If the Sharks have a choice between Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer, I sort of expect them to pick one of the forwards. If they have any sort of belief in just one or two of Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin, they may not prioritize Schaefer as a selection as much as another quality young forward can help this team in their rebuild. Another guy with a good shot at being 2C would be beneficial.


I'd imagine we would've done a lot of things differently and some guys would've had a more difficult path forward including Eklund and Smith.

Smith is much, much, much, much, much more likely to become a good 2C than Dickinson is going to become even an adequate 1D. There aren't enough "much"es in the world to describe the difference in likelihood of those two potential outcomes.

Taking anyone but Schaefer if he's on the board would be gross negligence for this franchise.

 

[Star Platinum]

If the Sharks have a choice between Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer, I sort of expect them to pick one of the forwards. If they have any sort of belief in just one or two of Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin, they may not prioritize Schaefer as a selection as much as another quality young forward can help this team in their rebuild. Another guy with a good shot at being 2C would be beneficial.

I'd imagine we would've done a lot of things differently and some guys would've had a more difficult path forward including Eklund and Smith.

No matter how much they believe in Cagnoni, I don't think there's any way they pass on Schaefer if they have a chance to pick him. I don't think Mukhamadullin factors into that calculus at all. I think they view him as a Ferraro/Thrun upgrade if he works out, but not somebody they ever envision being better than a middle pairing guy at best.

 

[TheBeard]

I'd imagine we would've done a lot of things differently and some guys would've had a more difficult path forward including Eklund and Smith.

I wonder if they make any of the moves they do. Do they trade for Askarov? Does Toffoli sign? Does Smith go back to school?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Smith is much, much, much, much, much more likely to become a good 2C than Dickinson is going to become even an adequate 1D. There aren't enough "much"es in the world to describe the difference in likelihood of those two potential outcomes.

Taking anyone but Schaefer if he's on the board would be gross negligence for this franchise.

Maybe so but I tend to side on the pessimistic side of things when it comes to projecting any of these players to these important roles and that includes Schaefer.

No matter how much they believe in Cagnoni, I don't think there's any way they pass on Schaefer if they have a chance to pick him. I don't think Mukhamadullin factors into that calculus at all. I think they view him as a Ferraro/Thrun upgrade if he works out, but not somebody they ever envision being better than a middle pairing guy at best.

Depends on how they think of Hagens and Misa as well. If they think either of them can become elite and think Schaefer isn't a 1D guy, they may go in a different direction.

I wonder if they make any of the moves they do. Do they trade for Askarov? Does Toffoli sign? Does Smith go back to school?

My guess is yes on Askarov. Toffoli may still sign as he had other reasons to be here. Smith might go back to school. He may not but they may not have been so dug in on keeping him in the NHL if he had the struggles he had thus far.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Maybe so but I tend to side on the pessimistic side of things when it comes to projecting any of these players to these important roles and that includes Schaefer.

Forgive me if I'm missing some context, but wouldn't that put you equally pessimistic on Misa/Hagens and land us back in the same place, which is taking BPA, which is Matthew Schaefer and also happens to be our greatest need as well?

Obviously if you think one of the forwards is going to be a super star and you don't think that Schaefer is going to be a legit #1D, then that changes things. But as it stands, that's not the case, and we simply don't need to prioritize a forward. Celebrini has already shown that he doesn't need elite linemates to produce at an elite level. You can always, reliably, acquire great wingers via trade and FA. You can't acquire legitimate #1D via trade or FA unless you get insanely lucky.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Forgive me if I'm missing some context, but wouldn't that put you equally pessimistic on Misa/Hagens and land us back in the same place, which is taking BPA, which is Matthew Schaefer and also happens to be our greatest need as well?

Obviously if you think one of the forwards is going to be a super star and you don't think that Schaefer is going to be a legit #1D, then that changes things. But as it stands, that's not the case, and we simply don't need to prioritize a forward. Celebrini has already shown that he doesn't need elite linemates to produce at an elite level. You can always, reliably, acquire great wingers via trade and FA. You can't acquire legitimate #1D via trade or FA unless you get insanely lucky.

Possibly. I think Schaefer is the most sensible pick in any situation that he is available to us but I'm not confident enough to think that teams all more or less feel the same way. There are always pretty funky team rankings after certain consensus mocks where teams occasionally prioritize need over BPA. I do think Hagens has elite potential in him. I think that of Schaefer as well but I'm not certain of how I view their odds of being elite.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Since we're hellbent on turning Smitty into a 4th line grinder, suddenly Hagens doesn't sound like a bad idea anymore. Still would rather nab Schaefer though

 

[Zarzh]

You don't think not making the playoffs for fifteen years consecutively has had a negative effect on the culture in Buffalo? You don't think something is rotten in Anaheim? Both of those teams have way too much talent to be languishing in the standings with the Sharks this year. There's absolutely no excuse for them to be this bad, and yet. If not for Dostal, Anaheim is probably in last place. Buffalo is just the most depressing team in the league. And yeah, I firmly believe that losing constantly enables that.

Sure, bad management is absolutely part of it. It's letting bad teams fester and not doing anything to improve them that's why those teams are where they are.

I expect Grier to make a trade this summer to improve the team, something more than taking on Walman and Ceci as cap dumps and throwing mid-round picks at Liljegren and Dellandrea. He made a lot of moves this summer (the aforementioned trades plus the Toffoli/Wennberg signings) to improve the team over the summer even while acknowledging that it's still a rebuilding year. What did Anaheim and Buffalo do this summer? Trade for washed-up Dumoulin/Fabbri, acquire Beck Malenstyn? Those teams should have taken a big step forward this offseason and they didn't. If Grier doesn't do something meaningful in the summer to take a significant step towards playoff contention, I will also be critical of him, because you have to give your young team something to work with.

Like I said, I'm not expecting to be a Cup contender on Celebrini's ELC. But I am expecting a legitimate attempt to be a playoff team in the next two years.

Anaheim is more questionable but they're incredibly young and only have one real potential franchise forward in Leo and they're at pretty much the floor.

Buffalo is pretty easy to explain. They don't have much forward talent and what they do have does an awful job of sheltering their other players to let them develop, and they still weren't terrible until Dahlin was injured. Tage is pretty much the antithesis to a guy that's easy to play with or behind in the lineup.

 

[Wheatens]

I think either Martone or Misa would be a great addition to a Celebrini line. They bring different things, but both are things we need.

Misa is a centre, playing him as a winger would be such a waste.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Chicago's going to be in the thick of the lottery race next year, no matter what they do. They're too far away.

Remember, the trick with ELCs is not necessarily to have your top stars on ELCs when you start competing - if you're a really, really bad team, that's probably impossible. The trick is to fill in your depth roles with guys on ELCs or cheap RFA contracts (like what Zetterlund has) and have them perform at $4-6 million levels around your real stars.

We're not going to be competing for a cup with Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, Dickinson, and whoever we draft next summer all making less than $1 million. What we're hoping for is that those guys are making around $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, the rest of the key slots (probably four forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie) are making $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, and the rest of the team comes in at $15-20 million and is performing at a $25 million level.

...

I also don't think Buffalo and Anaheim are languishing at the bottom of the standings because they were bad for too long, they're languishing at the bottom of the standings because they have bad management and that's why they were at the bottom of the standings for so long in the first place.

I think this is one of the best summary for a playoff team/contender I've seen here.
Someone probably already said this but in the future Celebrini can play with depth players or just with lower cap hit in his wings and help them produce (a la Crosby) and Sharks can really build a terrifying good 2nd and 3rd line for the playoffs. That's the best part about Celebrini, is that at his prime he could make anyone look like an NHLer.

 

[Forlan]

If the Sharks have a choice between Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer, I sort of expect them to pick one of the forwards. If they have any sort of belief in just one or two of Cagnoni, Dickinson, and Mukhamadullin, they may not prioritize Schaefer as a selection as much as another quality young forward can help this team in their rebuild. Another guy with a good shot at being 2C would be beneficial.


I'd imagine we would've done a lot of things differently and some guys would've had a more difficult path forward including Eklund and Smith.

I agree with you, Misa/Martone will make our top 6 potentially very strong

 

[StanleyCup2035]

God, help us win the lottery to assure I can complete the trifecta below by drafting Matthew Schaefer

Franchise Center
Franchise Goalie
Franchise 1D -->

 

[Juxtaposer]

Nashville has a surprisingly easy schedule for the rest of the year. They play us three times, Chicago three times, and Anaheim three times.

I don't think they'll be bottom-five at the end of the year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Nashville has a surprisingly easy schedule for the rest of the year. They play us three times, Chicago three times, and Anaheim three times.

I don't think they'll be bottom-five at the end of the year.

Now Buffalo and Chicago are behind us on points percentage. I’m not worried about Buffalo staying this bad but Chicago will.

 

[Great Makohead Shork]

Now Buffalo and Chicago are behind us on points percentage. I’m not worried about Buffalo staying this bad but Chicago will.

Yeah don't see us outtanking Chicago at this point which is fine since they're the team most likely to snag one of the forwards. It's finishing 3rd or lower that worries me. If we finish 3rd that 29.8% chance to drop to 5OA will keep me up at night

 

[mogambomoroo]

One thing that I didn't remember at all is that Matthew Schaefer turns 18 like a couple of weeks before next year training camp... so he is a really young and a defencemen... and lightyears ahead of any other defencemen on his draft class. I think Schaefer may just be the solution.

 

[vortexy]

One thing that I didn't remember at all is that Matthew Schaefer turns 18 like a couple of weeks before next year training camp... so he is a really young and a defencemen... and lightyears ahead of any other defencemen on his draft class. I think Schaefer may just be the solution.

Yep he is almost a full year younger than Hagens and Martone. I predict that after this World Juniors he will be consensus #1 and we will most likely need the #1 or #2 pick to get him as others have stated, some teams have a greater need at forward instead but it’s hard to see him going past #2 in my opinion.

 

[67 others]

Smith is much, much, much, much, much more likely to become a good 2C than Dickinson is going to become even an adequate 1D. There aren't enough "much"es in the world to describe the difference in likelihood of those two potential outcomes.

Taking anyone but Schaefer if he's on the board would be gross negligence for this franchise.

I feel like you really underrate Dickinson.

I like the idea of drafting Schaefer too(i was on Logan Hensler last year but his stock has fallen hard), but Dickinson still has #1D written all over him. Is Schaefer better? Probably, but Dickinson wasn't used on London's top PP last year so his numbers weren't as pretty, yet he was still the best two way D of the draft next to Levshunov, who is considered weaker offensively. Buium was considered quite a bit weaker defensively, but more dynamic offensively and smaller.

As it turns out, London gave Dickinson PP1 this year and he's having a historically good two way season in the OHL, Vastly outscoring offense only Dynamo zayne Parekh while being 10x better defensively

 

[67 others]

Misa is a centre, playing him as a winger would be such a waste.

Misa can play wing or C. Hagens is the pure C

But I'll be doing full on jar jar binks wording if we get Misa. "Misa think we should have drafted Schaefer"

 

[67 others]

Yeah don't see us outtanking Chicago at this point which is fine since they're the team most likely to snag one of the forwards. It's finishing 3rd or lower that worries me. If we finish 3rd that 29.8% chance to drop to 5OA will keep me up at night

That would suck, but I'd console myself with getting Eklund if we can't trade up lol

 

[coooldude]

I feel like you really underrate Dickinson.

I like the idea of drafting Schaefer too(i was on Logan Hensler last year but his stock has fallen hard), but Dickinson still has #1D written all over him. Is Schaefer better? Probably, but Dickinson wasn't used on London's top PP last year so his numbers weren't as pretty, yet he was still the best two way D of the draft next to Levshunov, who is considered weaker offensively. Buium was considered quite a bit weaker defensively, but more dynamic offensively and smaller.

As it turns out, London gave Dickinson PP1 this year and he's having a historically good two way season in the OHL, Vastly outscoring offense only Dynamo zayne Parekh while being 10x better defensively

I really don't think Jux is underrating Dickinson. He doesn't have #1D all over him - he has top pairing ceiling but there are risks, and there are a number of good scouting videos showing why his numbers are good but not 100% translatable to the NHL yet.

Schaefer is likely going to play more than him at WJCs - that's a #1D profile. Dick is a soft 1/2 or possibly a really really strong 3.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I feel like you really underrate Dickinson.

I like the idea of drafting Schaefer too(i was on Logan Hensler last year but his stock has fallen hard), but Dickinson still has #1D written all over him. Is Schaefer better? Probably, but Dickinson wasn't used on London's top PP last year so his numbers weren't as pretty, yet he was still the best two way D of the draft next to Levshunov, who is considered weaker offensively. Buium was considered quite a bit weaker defensively, but more dynamic offensively and smaller.

As it turns out, London gave Dickinson PP1 this year and he's having a historically good two way season in the OHL, Vastly outscoring offense only Dynamo zayne Parekh while being 10x better defensively

Listen, I want Dickinson to be the solution as much as anyone. But I have watched like 75% of his games this season and he simply doesn't have the processing speed that all true #1D have. Watch Schaefer and then watch Dickinson. You won't come away thinking Schaefer is merely "probably" better than Dickinson.

 

[Crewouse]

Listen, I want Dickinson to be the solution as much as anyone. But I have watched like 75% of his games this season and he simply doesn't have the processing speed that all true #1D have. Watch Schaefer and then watch Dickinson. You won't come away thinking Schaefer is merely "probably" better than Dickinson.

What kind of player do you think Dickinson realistically might end up as?

 

[PattyLafontaine]

That would suck, but I'd console myself with getting Eklund if we can't trade up lol

I think Desnoyers is 5th pick atm. Mcqueen is a DND with his back injury. Eklund is 6th