2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Shark Finn]

I’ve accepted we won’t have a chance at Schaefer without some lottery luck so I’ve moved on to liking Jackson Smith. Dude reminds me of Burns a bit with his size and skill.

The NHL owes the Sharks a lottery win. Don't you worry.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Buffalo is currently out-tanking everyone. They are win-less in their last 11 games. Ironically, Buffalo's last win was against the Sharks, so good job there. But at this rate, they'll end up with the best odds of landing 1OA pick and Schaefer.

We need to let Georgiev play more, particularly against bottom dwellers. Schaefer in teal would be huge for us.

Buffalo is one team id be confident in saying is picking Hagens/Misa and would be ok if theyre in front of us.

No team with Dahlin, Power, Byram on the left side is taking another dmen. They need forwards.and high end ones.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Buffalo is one team id be confident in saying is picking Hagens/Misa and would be ok if theyre in front of us.

No team with Dahlin, Power, Byram on the left side is taking another dmen. They need forwards.and high end ones.

Misa in particular seems like a great fit for Buffalo. Center who does all the little things right and makes everyone around him better. Really feel like he could fill the cracks in that lineup.

Outside of being an invested Sharks fan, I'm insanely curious how the top-4 of the draft is gonna shake out. Personally, I think Schaefer will have created a gap between himself and the forwards by the end of the year, but a lot of teams in the top-4 really need forwards. As you said, the last thing Buffalo needs is an offensive-leaning LHD. Nashville has never had a legitimate 1C in their entire franchise history, would they pass up on Hagens or Misa for Schaefer? Chicago badly needs a forward taller than 5'9" with the skill to play with Bedard, I have to imagine Misa and Martone are high on their list.

I think we hope that Hagens and Martone have great WJC performances and Misa continues to tear up the OHL to the point where come June, the four are still interchangeable based on preferences and any team above us needs forwards badly.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Misa in particular seems like a great fit for Buffalo. Center who does all the little things right and makes everyone around him better. Really feel like he could fill the cracks in that lineup.

Outside of being an invested Sharks fan, I'm insanely curious how the top-4 of the draft is gonna shake out. Personally, I think Schaefer will have created a gap between himself and the forwards by the end of the year, but a lot of teams in the top-4 really need forwards. As you said, the last thing Buffalo needs is an offensive-leaning LHD. Nashville has never had a legitimate 1C in their entire franchise history, would they pass up on Hagens or Misa for Schaefer? Chicago badly needs a forward taller than 5'9" with the skill to play with Bedard, I have to imagine Misa and Martone are high on their list.

I think we hope that Hagens and Martone have great WJC performances and Misa continues to tear up the OHL to the point where come June, the four are still interchangeable based on preferences and any team above us needs forwards badly.

to add further intrigue, a team like Nashville may also prioritize guys who can contribute sooner than later, which screams Hagens to me. They were suppose to be a contending team, signed Stamkos and Marchy, extended Soros dealt Askarov etc. They want to play playoff hockey now, not in 3 years when a dman typically blossoms. I imagien Buffalo has a similar incentive as well in addition to the Dmen vs FWD issue.

I think Chicago is our top competition for Schaefer tbh. I think they know theyre still many years away, and can wait another year if needed for Bedards running mate.

 

[Juxtaposer]

to add further intrigue, a team like Nashville may also prioritize guys who can contribute sooner than later, which screams Hagens to me. They were suppose to be a contending team, signed Stamkos and Marchy, extended Soros dealt Askarov etc. They want to play playoff hockey now, not in 3 years when a dman typically blossoms. I imagien Buffalo has a similar incentive as well in addition to the Dmen vs FWD issue.

I think Chicago is our top competition for Schaefer tbh. I think they know theyre still many years away, and can wait another year if needed for Bedards running mate.

You mean Chicago already knows the McKenna lottery is fixed for them? Probably.

I dunno, if I was a Hawks fan, it wouldn't sit well with me to take Levshunov over Demidov only to turn around and take another defenseman 1st overall. They literally have nothing going on up front past Nazar, who is good but tiny and more of the same. Moore and Boisvert are third line types, not guys who will be playing with Bedard. But tanking again in the last year of Bedard's ELC cannot possible be acceptable, can it? Hell, the Sharks tanking in the second year of Celebrini's ELC wouldn't be acceptable to me.

Sure, both teams are many years away from contending, but there's a lot of space between tanking and contending. Like I said, I expect to draft in the 8-12 range in 2026 because I expect this team to take a big step forward next year. If we're drafting 2-4 in 2026, that's a problem. You can't languish at the bottom of the standings endlessly because you risk becoming Buffalo or Anaheim.

 

[Cas]

Chicago's going to be in the thick of the lottery race next year, no matter what they do. They're too far away.

Remember, the trick with ELCs is not necessarily to have your top stars on ELCs when you start competing - if you're a really, really bad team, that's probably impossible. The trick is to fill in your depth roles with guys on ELCs or cheap RFA contracts (like what Zetterlund has) and have them perform at $4-6 million levels around your real stars.

We're not going to be competing for a cup with Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, Dickinson, and whoever we draft next summer all making less than $1 million. What we're hoping for is that those guys are making around $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, the rest of the key slots (probably four forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie) are making $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, and the rest of the team comes in at $15-20 million and is performing at a $25 million level.

...

I also don't think Buffalo and Anaheim are languishing at the bottom of the standings because they were bad for too long, they're languishing at the bottom of the standings because they have bad management and that's why they were at the bottom of the standings for so long in the first place.

 

[coooldude]

I will also say that while Schaefer is the dream, we really can't go wrong with Misa or Martone, and we can make Hagens work.

Draft Schaefer -> we're now loaded at LD pipeline, need to plug the RD with FA/trade adds that can mentor/play with the youths in 2-5 years, and hope that our F prospects are good enough to play with Celly/Smith and/or add in FA/trade there too. In 2026+ we draft whoever falls to us, shading F, but it's more augmenting than filling gaping holes.

Draft Misa -> we have a Marleau-type guy who can fill a C/W role and play detail oriented hockey but still has speed and skill. Not going to drive the franchise but very well may be the perfect complement as 2C or 1W for Celly. We still have a pretty big hole in the high end D pipeline, so we're looking to add RD/LD in 2026 draft and adding in FA/trades if we can.

Draft Martone -> we have a ceiling of Perry/M. Tkachuk and we have an incredible 1st line to rival MacKinnon/Rantanen. And a median of B. Tkachuk (good 1W but maybe not a true franchise piece), which allows us to be competitive but maybe we still lack the piece we need to be a perennial contender. and a bust potential there too probably not quite to the level of Kostin but in that flavor (all the pieces, too inconsistent/can't put it together). Maybe imagining he'd be a "Buffalo" player who gets traded at some point and puts it together. Either way, in 2026+ we're drafting primarily for D but potentially for F if a great fit falls to us. Same FA/Trade focus as Misa scenario, possibly still hoping Smith is a 2C.

Draft Hagens -> we have an epic 1-2 punch at C, if Hagens hits his ceiling or median outcome. But we lack size at F, so we need our bigger prospects (Musty, Chernyshov) to hit or we need to draft more up there. We also still have a gaping hole at the top of the D pipeline, so we're drafting and plugging away there, too. However, it takes pressure off Smith to be the 2C of the future. 4 of our top 6 are high skill, high hockey IQ players but they are all avg or undersized (Celly, Ek, Smith, Hagens).

This is my current order of preference, but things will likely change, and I'd be happy with any of the 4.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Chicago's going to be in the thick of the lottery race next year, no matter what they do. They're too far away.

Remember, the trick with ELCs is not necessarily to have your top stars on ELCs when you start competing - if you're a really, really bad team, that's probably impossible. The trick is to fill in your depth roles with guys on ELCs or cheap RFA contracts (like what Zetterlund has) and have them perform at $4-6 million levels around your real stars.

We're not going to be competing for a cup with Celebrini, Eklund, Smith, Dickinson, and whoever we draft next summer all making less than $1 million. What we're hoping for is that those guys are making around $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, the rest of the key slots (probably four forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie) are making $40 million and performing at a $50 million level, and the rest of the team comes in at $15-20 million and is performing at a $25 million level.

...

I also don't think Buffalo and Anaheim are languishing at the bottom of the standings because they were bad for too long, they're languishing at the bottom of the standings because they have bad management and that's why they were at the bottom of the standings for so long in the first place.

You don't think not making the playoffs for fifteen years consecutively has had a negative effect on the culture in Buffalo? You don't think something is rotten in Anaheim? Both of those teams have way too much talent to be languishing in the standings with the Sharks this year. There's absolutely no excuse for them to be this bad, and yet. If not for Dostal, Anaheim is probably in last place. Buffalo is just the most depressing team in the league. And yeah, I firmly believe that losing constantly enables that.

Sure, bad management is absolutely part of it. It's letting bad teams fester and not doing anything to improve them that's why those teams are where they are.

I expect Grier to make a trade this summer to improve the team, something more than taking on Walman and Ceci as cap dumps and throwing mid-round picks at Liljegren and Dellandrea. He made a lot of moves this summer (the aforementioned trades plus the Toffoli/Wennberg signings) to improve the team over the summer even while acknowledging that it's still a rebuilding year. What did Anaheim and Buffalo do this summer? Trade for washed-up Dumoulin/Fabbri, acquire Beck Malenstyn? Those teams should have taken a big step forward this offseason and they didn't. If Grier doesn't do something meaningful in the summer to take a significant step towards playoff contention, I will also be critical of him, because you have to give your young team something to work with.

Like I said, I'm not expecting to be a Cup contender on Celebrini's ELC. But I am expecting a legitimate attempt to be a playoff team in the next two years.

 

[coooldude]

Like I said, I'm not expecting to be a Cup contender on Celebrini's ELC. But I am expecting a legitimate attempt to be a playoff team in the next two years.

I expect he will try to add as much as he can this summer, and it will get us within a sniff of wildcard. but still finish between 6-15th worst. The following year, with development and further adds, I expect we are fully gunning for a wildcard. And we may not make it in 2027, that's fine, but I think Grier will be gunning for it.

 

[Cas]

You don't think not making the playoffs for fifteen years consecutively has had a negative effect on the culture in Buffalo? You don't think something is rotten in Anaheim? Both of those teams have way too much talent to be languishing in the standings with the Sharks this year. There's absolutely no excuse for them to be this bad, and yet. If not for Dostal, Anaheim is probably in last place. Buffalo is just the most depressing team in the league. And yeah, I firmly believe that losing constantly enables that.

Sure, bad management is absolutely part of it. It's letting bad teams fester and not doing anything to improve them that's why those teams are where they are.

I expect Grier to make a trade this summer to improve the team, something more than taking on Walman and Ceci as cap dumps and throwing mid-round picks at Liljegren and Dellandrea. He made a lot of moves this summer (the aforementioned trades plus the Toffoli/Wennberg signings) to improve the team over the summer even while acknowledging that it's still a rebuilding year. What did Anaheim and Buffalo do this summer? Trade for washed-up Dumoulin/Fabbri, acquire Beck Malenstyn? Those teams should have taken a big step forward this offseason and they didn't. If Grier doesn't do something meaningful in the summer to take a significant step towards playoff contention, I will also be critical of him, because you have to give your young team something to work with.

Like I said, I'm not expecting to be a Cup contender on Celebrini's ELC. But I am expecting a legitimate attempt to be a playoff team in the next two years.

No, I think the problem with Buffalo is not "cultural" (whatever that means), but with management failing to build a decent team over and over again, overrating the quality of their players and prospects, dumping quality players through shortsighted moves, etc.

They keep losing because they're incompetent - they're not stuck in some mystical death spiral of malaise that feeds on itself. I don't think they have "too much talent" to suck, I think they don't have enough talent to not suck when they also can't build a decent supporting group to surround what talent they have.

We are also just too far away to be a playoff team in the next two years, unless everything goes absolutely perfect with our hopeful future stars.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I expect he will try to add as much as he can this summer, and it will get us within a sniff of wildcard. but still finish between 6-15th worst. The following year, with development and further adds, I expect we are fully gunning for a wildcard. And we may not make it in 2027, that's fine, but I think Grier will be gunning for it.

Yup, that's exactly what the plan should be. One more high-end piece drafted this year, then you make an ambitious trade or signing in the summer. Askarov up full time, Celebrini an established 1C, development year complete for Smith, get to work.

 

[Juxtaposer]

No, I think the problem with Buffalo is not "cultural" (whatever that means), but with management failing to build a decent team over and over again, overrating the quality of their players and prospects, dumping quality players through shortsighted moves, etc.

They keep losing because they're incompetent - they're not stuck in some mystical death spiral of malaise that feeds on itself. I don't think they have "too much talent" to suck, I think they don't have enough talent to not suck when they also can't build a decent supporting group to surround what talent they have.

We are also just too far away to be a playoff team in the next two years, unless everything goes absolutely perfect with our hopeful future stars.

If you don't think even part of the problem with Buffalo is the death spiral of malaise (great term btw), then why do you think every single player who leaves Buffalo is better after the leave? I absolutely cannot believe that Buffalo is making the wrong decision every single time for fifteen years; even a broken clock is right twice a day. I think you're using an awful lot of hindsight when evaluating these trades. Have you never been in a really toxic work environment or project group? It absolutely affects your performance.

Just out of my curiosity (so no need to oblige), who do you think is worth keeping in Buffalo and who would you trade to fix them?

 

[Alaskanice]

If you don't think even part of the problem with Buffalo is the death spiral of malaise (great term btw), then why do you think every single player who leaves Buffalo is better after the leave? I absolutely cannot believe that Buffalo is making the wrong decision every single time for fifteen years; even a broken clock is right twice a day. I think you're using an awful lot of hindsight when evaluating these trades. Have you never been in a really toxic work environment or project group? It absolutely affects your performance.

Just out of my curiosity (so no need to oblige), who do you think is worth keeping in Buffalo and who would you trade to fix them?

15 years? Truly baffling.

 

[sincityshark]

Martone will look good on Celebrini's wing .

 

[Star Platinum]

Martone will look good on Celebrini's wing .

I think either Martone or Misa would be a great addition to a Celebrini line. They bring different things, but both are things we need.

 

[one2gamble]

15 years? Truly baffling.

I think this is an issue the NHL is going to have to address. It takes entirely too long to rebuild and if you miss, you basically have to start over, normally 5 years into the rebuild. Its really not sustainable.

 

[Barrie22]

I think this is an issue the NHL is going to have to address. It takes entirely too long to rebuild and if you miss, you basically have to start over, normally 5 years into the rebuild. Its really not sustainable.

There is absolutely nothing the nhl can do to address the rebuilds taking to long.

 

[one2gamble]

There is absolutely nothing the nhl can do to address the rebuilds taking to long.

yes there is, the players union just wont go for it

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think this is an issue the NHL is going to have to address. It takes entirely too long to rebuild and if you miss, you basically have to start over, normally 5 years into the rebuild. Its really not sustainable.

This is so interesting; why does the NHL need to address this? The Cleveland Browns didn’t make the playoffs for 18 years, and while I’m not on the cutting edge of NFL zeitgeist, I’m pretty sure no one was seriously suggesting the league needed to address some issues to ensure the Browns had an easier path to competitiveness.

Seems to me poorly run organizations can get stuck in purgatory until they get better management, and while that sucks for that team’s fan base I’m not sure that’s a league problem when the vast majority of teams go through cycles of being competitive every 4-5 years.

 

[one2gamble]

This is so interesting; why does the NHL need to address this? The Cleveland Browns didn’t make the playoffs for 18 years, and while I’m not on the cutting edge of NFL zeitgeist, I’m pretty sure no one was seriously suggesting the league needed to address some issues to ensure the Browns had an easier path to competitiveness.

Seems to me poorly run organizations can get stuck in purgatory until they get better management, and while that sucks for that team’s fan base I’m not sure that’s a league problem when the vast majority of teams go through cycles of being competitive every 4-5 years.

because the NHL doesnt have the media deals that the NFL, NBA and MLB have. Their structure better allows teams to wallow in shit. I dont think its healthy that rebuilds take three times as long as the average NHL career.

Some ownership groups are ok with being shit houses, thats by design. I just think its to hard to rebuild in the NHL even if you want to field a competitive team.

 

[Cas]

If you don't think even part of the problem with Buffalo is the death spiral of malaise (great term btw), then why do you think every single player who leaves Buffalo is better after the leave? I absolutely cannot believe that Buffalo is making the wrong decision every single time for fifteen years; even a broken clock is right twice a day. I think you're using an awful lot of hindsight when evaluating these trades. Have you never been in a really toxic work environment or project group? It absolutely affects your performance.

Just out of my curiosity (so no need to oblige), who do you think is worth keeping in Buffalo and who would you trade to fix them?

I think Buffalo is legitimately really, really bad at actually evaluating players, which also makes some legitimately good players look worse than they actually are.

I have certainly been in really toxic work environments, but professional sports are a different world. I didn't have to compete against 500 people who do exactly the same thing I did in a public environment where I could legitimately die just trying to do my job. I don't think toxic environments affect pro athletes the same way they affect us.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

because the NHL doesnt have the media deals that the NFL, NBA and MLB have. Their structure better allows teams to wallow in shit. I dont think its healthy that rebuilds take three times as long as the average NHL career.

Some ownership groups are ok with being shit houses, thats by design. I just think its to hard to rebuild in the NHL even if you want to field a competitive team.

I think Buffalo is an outlier. When we look at historical playoff droughts in the NHL we see:

13 year drought	1 time (yay Buffalo)
10 years	2 times (FLA, EDM)
9 years	2 times
8 years	4 times
7 years	9 times

Using a playoff appearance as proxy for exit of rebuild, which may be controversial, but at least simple for this discussion. If outside of 9 spans in all of NHL history teams are getting back to the playoffs within 7 years, presumably exiting a rebuild/retool/rewhatever, that seems pretty reasonable, especially considering many teams are doing that in 6, 5, and 4 years.

With the mean NHL career length somewhere between 4-5 years, I think your point is hyperbolic and far from accurate.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think Buffalo is legitimately really, really bad at actually evaluating players, which also makes some legitimately good players look worse than they actually are.

I have certainly been in really toxic work environments, but professional sports are a different world. I didn't have to compete against 500 people who do exactly the same thing I did in a public environment where I could legitimately die just trying to do my job. I don't think toxic environments affect pro athletes the same way they affect us.

I'm a bit confused by the first statement. So you are saying that playing in Buffalo makes their players look worse than they are?

I strongly disagree with the second statement. Ryan O'Reilly literally said the Sabres killed his love of hockey. I would be shocked if he were the only one.

 

[Star Platinum]

yes there is, the players union just wont go for it

I feel like there are two things working against NHL rebuilds compared to other sports like football and basketball. One is bad ownership/management where either they're incompetent or they just care about turning a profit like the A's and don't care about winning at all and short of the league disincentivizing not trying to win, not much can be done about that. The other is that in football and basketball, star talents impact your team immediately and are starting right away. We're very fortunate that Celebrini is having an on-ice impact this early in his career at his age, but most of the time you're waiting around 2-4 years to see how good that player is gonna be. And ELC contracts address that issue to a degree by making sure you're not paying big money for those guys while you're waiting for an answer to that question.

The NHL to me is most like baseball of the four major American sports in that you have to wait a while on most of your draft picks before they're ready to help you. But in baseball, you get star players from all the rounds of the draft, while in the NHL, the odds of getting a star really decrease quickly the deeper you get into the draft, so hockey very much incentivizes bottoming all the way out in order to have the best chance of getting an impact prospect. The teams that aren't willing to bottom out struggle to find those impact players and because they're not good teams, most established stars aren't gonna sign with them either.

The Sharks finally committed to bottoming out.

 

[TheBeard]

I feel like there are two things working against NHL rebuilds compared to other sports like football and basketball. One is bad ownership/management where either they're incompetent or they just care about turning a profit like the A's and don't care about winning at all and short of the league disincentivizing not trying to win, not much can be done about that. The other is that in football and basketball, star talents impact your team immediately and are starting right away. We're very fortunate that Celebrini is having an on-ice impact this early in his career at his age, but most of the time you're waiting around 2-4 years to see how good that player is gonna be. And ELC contracts address that issue to a degree by making sure you're not paying big money for those guys while you're waiting for an answer to that question.

The NHL to me is most like baseball of the four major American sports in that you have to wait a while on most of your draft picks before they're ready to help you. But in baseball, you get star players from all the rounds of the draft, while in the NHL, the odds of getting a star really decrease quickly the deeper you get into the draft, so hockey very much incentivizes bottoming all the way out in order to have the best chance of getting an impact prospect. The teams that aren't willing to bottom out struggle to find those impact players and because they're not good teams, most established stars aren't gonna sign with them either.

The Sharks finally committed to bottoming out.

I can’t even imagine what the mental state of the franchise would be had we not gotten first overall