2025 NHL Draft: Baggin' for Hagens

[Juxtaposer]

Obviously there's gonna be more factors in play, but I truly believe our "bottoming out" happened last season. There's no way we don't show improvement, even if it's the slightest.

Sure, I definitely expect improvement, but even if we improve a ton we’re still a bottom-3 team in the league.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Obviously there's gonna be more factors in play, but I truly believe our "bottoming out" happened last season. There's no way we don't show improvement, even if it's the slightest.

I think that's true but to what degree is impossible to determine until we see what Grier does to replace the guys we're letting walk. If the blue line stays largely the same because we're unwilling to buy out Vlasic and/or trade any or all of Benning, Burroughs, Ferraro, and Rutta then even with the marked improvement up front getting Celebrini and Smith in there, we can still very much be the worst team in the NHL next season.

If you're right about 8 wins, we're still looking at 3rd overall which to be frank is probably in our best interests to have happen to us anyway. We need a legitimate #1 defenseman which is most likely to come through the draft. Getting someone like Hensler to be that guy for us would set us up for many years to come. The rest of the blue line can be remade through trades or free agency but the top guy is a tough guy to land.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think I said it in another thread but MTL was closers to the playoffs than they were to the Sharks in the standings...and they came 5th last. Even if we make significant improve we're a bottom 5 team. This is a hard league to improve in, just ask Buffalo, Detroit, Ottawa, etc.

 

[The Nemesis]

I will not be surprised if we're still the worst team in the league next season. The Sharks were 5, 12, and 19 points back of teams 2 through 4 at the bottom of the standings. And while yeah they'll improve with Smith and Celebrini, Chicago and Anaheim will both also improve with their own top 5 picks, a year of development from their prospects, and in Chicago's case also not losing Bedard for almost half the season to a broken jaw. If most of the bottom-feeder teams improve in relative lockstep the Sharks will still be at the bottom looking up. And that's fine.

 

[Barrie22]

Useless players such has Hoffman and Lebanc going out, good young talent coming in. Should easily translate to at least 8 or so more wins over last season.

8 more wins brings us to the normal, last place in the league range. If you take out the historically bad Sharks season and nearly just as historically bad Hawks season out of the average point totals to be last in the league.

The normal points totals to be last in the league is between 60-70 points.

Adding 8 more wins (16 points) would bring us to 63 points, still very bad and still well in the range to be last in the league.

To get out of the bottom 5, we are looking at close to 15 more wins.

 

[JotAlan]

Can the Sharks win next year's lottery too? Up to what position in the ranking would it still be possible to select the first choice?
I really don't see a world where the Sharks aren't one of the 5 worst teams in the league.

I know the blue line is ridiculous, but if you win the lottery you take Hagens without thinking twice.

 

[Barrie22]

Can the Sharks win next year's lottery too? Up to what position in the ranking would it still be possible to select the first choice?
I really don't see a world where the Sharks aren't one of the 5 worst teams in the league.

11th worst it's still possible. But the Sharks can still Hawks it and win from 3rd worse.

 

[hohosaregood]

Can the Sharks win next year's lottery too? Up to what position in the ranking would it still be possible to select the first choice?
I really don't see a world where the Sharks aren't one of the 5 worst teams in the league.

I know the blue line is ridiculous, but if you win the lottery you take Hagens without thinking twice.

The rule is a team can only move up in the lottery twice in 5 years. Since we didn't move up this year, we still got 2 lottery wins in the chamber.

 

[anthonyyy]

The rule is a team can only move up in the lottery twice in 5 years. Since we didn't move up this year, we still got 2 lottery wins in the chamber.

Can we please pin this response somewhere, it gets asked like every other week.

 

[dmcccdmn]

The rule is a team can only move up in the lottery twice in 5 years. Since we didn't move up this year, we still got 2 lottery wins in the chamber.

With how bad our roster is, we have a chance to land both Hagens and McKenna. Kinda nuts what a roster without D and goalie can do. If Grier plays this right and sit on his hands not spending his cap, things will sort itself out for him. Can we also use that massive cap space to absorb some bad contracts to get a few more picks?

 

[matt trick]

With how bad our roster is, we have a chance to land both Hagens and McKenna. Kinda nuts what a roster without D and goalie can do. If Grier plays this right and sit on his hands not spending his cap, things will sort itself out for him. Can we also use that massive cap space to absorb some bad contracts to get a few more picks?

Assuming 6 win improvements in back to back years (let's say resulting in 31st and 28th), we'd have a 22% chance of getting either, and a 1% chance of getting both. If we're 32nd both years, the chance is 6.25% of getting both, and 51% chance of either.

We don't have all that great a chance of getting another #1 overall pick in the next two years. Luckily our biggest need now is A #1 D and they can be found throughout the draft, but most commonly are found in the top 6. Franchise caliber centers are mostly found in the top 3 and usually ) number 1. If we can get Hagens or McKenna, absolutely we take them and kick the dman can down the road. Failing that, I like our odds of getting a top pairing d-man who's hopefully able to grow into the number one spot.

Give me a Miro Heiskanen please.

I'd also to see us grab a more picks, or especially orchestrate trade ups, through bad contract acquisition. Especially if they're NHL caliber players. Goodrow+1st for NJ 2nd?

 

[Jargon]

My goal is to get the 2nd overall pick and have Vegas implode and win the lottery and pick 1 & 2.

 

[Barrie22]

My goal is to get the 2nd overall pick and have Vegas implode and win the lottery and pick 1 & 2.

That would still count as the Sharks first move up then.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

That would still count as the Sharks first move up then.

That would be well worth it lol

 

[sharski]

That would still count as the Sharks first move up then.

Imo the ability to move up twice in 5 years is already way too generous (dont care how improbable it is it shouldn't even be possible), so I'd actually love for the sharks to actually do it to piss off the league and get the rule changed afterwards

 

[matt trick]

That would still count as the Sharks first move up then.

Would it? It seems that would count against Vegas?

 

[Cas]

Would it? It seems that would count against Vegas?

The limit on moving up in the draft lottery is for the team that ultimately owns the pick, not whose pick it originally was

 

[hohosaregood]

The limit on moving up in the draft lottery is for the team that ultimately owns the pick, not whose pick it originally was

So if we won the lottery and moved up on both the sharks and Vegas pick somehow, that would count for our 2 in 5 yrs?

 

[Cas]

So if we won the lottery and moved up on both the sharks and Vegas pick somehow, that would count for our 2 in 5 yrs?

That would be my interpretation, but I'm not entirely sure about this "two-in-one" scenario specifically.

 

[Gecklund]

So if we won the lottery and moved up on both the sharks and Vegas pick somehow, that would count for our 2 in 5 yrs?

No picks stay with the team. So if we get the same pick with ours but Vegas moves up it counts as vegas

 

[Cas]

No picks stay with the team. So if we get the same pick with ours but Vegas moves up it counts as vegas

It counts as San Jose.

"No single team can advance in the draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two times in any five-year period... For purposes of clarity, the limitation would attach to the team, not the specific pick."

To me, that reads that it doesn't matter whose pick wins the lottery - what matters is what team benefits from the lottery win (in other words, the ultimate owner).

 

[TheBeard]

I'd just be thrilled to see Vegas draft in the first 15 and y'all are committed to the idea of Vegas finishing dead last.

 

[Hodge]

I'd just be thrilled to see Vegas draft in the first 15 and y'all are committed to the idea of Vegas finishing dead last.

Which is especially funny because I remember people being very insistent that it would end up in the late 20s or 30s at the time of the Hertl trade.

 

[matt trick]

I'm here just for the amusement and fantasy. I think 17-24 is probably most likely.

 

[TheBeard]

Which is especially funny because I remember people being very insistent that it would end up in the late 20s or 30s at the time of the Hertl trade.

I still think it'll end up in the mid 20s. They're still gonna do something Vegas like with the money they're not spending on Marchy, or they're gonna get him on an absolute sweetheart deal and they'll have a full season of Hertl/Hanifin. Plus, the obligatory Stone LTIR.