Red Sox/MLB 2025 Hot Stove - Mets land Juan Soto on 15-year, $765M deal

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yup, no move is always better than a bad one.

I still can't believe we gave up both Teel and Montgomery for someone who is far from a sure thing. And for what? A third place roster at best?

Are Teel & Montgomery sure things?

Baseball is my 4th sport so I'm just askin'.

 

[ON3M4N]

This is the part that I have trouble getting over. If they had signed a top starter and a RH bat first, while maxing out payroll, I could understand this move. At that point, you'd have done everything else you could and a trade would be necessary to complete the roster.

As things stand, their period of contention isn't today. It's probably in 2-3 years when Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell are hopefully settled in (similar to how the timing of contention worked with Bogaerts, Betts, Devers, & Benintendi). Unless they were concerned about Teel and Montgomery losing significant value in the next year, I don't understand the need to make a move like this today (besides panic and desperation because Plan A, Plan B, etc failed firs).

Teel struggled defensively this past season (though scouting think he'll clean that up). He blew through the lower levels offensively but struggled a bit in AAA. I still think he's going to be an everyday guy that has a good average and hits 15-20 homers while being a locker room leader. He's basically the least risky piece that CHI got. Montgomery is a wild card. I think many had him as a top 5 pick before his injury. There's questions around his contact and ability to remain as a switch hitter in pro ball. Of the pieces going to CHI, he has the biggest "boom" potential.

Chrochet gives you a 25yr old top of the rotation guy with 2yrs left of arbitration.

 

[ON3M4N]

Are Teel & Montgomery sure things?

Baseball is my 4th sport so I'm just askin'.

I'd be shocked if Teel doesn't become an everyday catcher that helps a team offensively and defensively. He also has the make-up to be a very good locker room guy and leader. Teel gives me a Varitek vibe

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

 

[EverettMike]

Are Teel & Montgomery sure things?

Baseball is my 4th sport so I'm just askin'.

No, almost no prospect is. But their mere potential has increidble value and I think the Sox wasted that value.

 

[Smitty93]

Are Teel & Montgomery sure things?

Baseball is my 4th sport so I'm just askin'.

I'm not a fan of arguments like this. It's the same mindset that's used to review all of Dombrowski's prospects and say how none of the prospects he moved turned out to be great. The point isn't that these prospects should be untouchable, it's how they're being utilized as assets. Maybe Ken Rosenthal is right and every Red Sox prospect is overrated and other teams are aware of that, so we overestimate the value of these packages.

But here's how I tend to view things. If you trade something that's been valued at $10 for something that's valued at $5, it shouldn't become a good deal because five years later what you traded is only worth $1. You still lost out on $5 of value on the original trade and that $5 of value could have gotten you something else.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I'm not a fan of arguments like this. It's the same mindset that's used to review all of Dombrowski's prospects and say how none of the prospects he moved turned out to be great. The point isn't that these prospects should be untouchable, it's how they're being utilized as assets. Maybe Ken Rosenthal is right and every Red Sox prospect is overrated and other teams are aware of that, so we overestimate the value of these packages.

But here's how I tend to view things. If you trade something that's been valued at $10 for something that's valued at $5, it shouldn't become a good deal because five years later what you traded is only worth $1. You still lost out on $5 of value on the original trade and that $5 of value could have gotten you something else.

There was no argument.

Just a question.

 

[Smitty93]

There was no argument.

Just a question.

Yeah, poor word choice on my part. Wasn't intending to call you out. It's just a topic, or maybe rather a perspective, that I feel strongly about.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yeah, poor word choice on my part. Wasn't intending to call you out. It's just a topic, or maybe rather a perspective, that I feel strongly about.

So back to the question?

How good are Teel and Montgomery? I've never seen either play.

 

[CDJ]

This better be a pure salary dump. What kind of value does Castillo have? Essentially none. He has declined for the past 2-3 years, has drastic splits away from Safeco and still makes over 20m for 2-3 WAR. Giving up Casas or Abreu would be laughable. Guys like that can still be bought for nothing but money from the market.



Most likely considering the timing of the trade. Which also rules out Burnes.

This is what happens when you back yourself into a corner and teams know you are desperate. You have to overpay.

This off-season is shaping up to be worse than the last couple of years, which is hard to accomplish.

Speier has dumped water on Casas for Castillo, it’s a dumb rumor that never made any sense

We seem more negative than the general vibe on SOSH but I wouldnt have it any other way!

Thats the Bruin fan in us

No, almost no prospect is. But their mere potential has increidble value and I think the Sox wasted that value.

crochet’s potential - LH #1 pitcher- has even more value than both of them. A left handed ace is the most valuable thing in the sport

 

[CDJ]

So back to the question?

How good are Teel and Montgomery? I've never seen either play.

They are quite good. I’m not sold on Teel defensively (he can control the run game pretty well but the other stuff like framing/game calling is still a little rough from what I recall…he’s a smart kid who works hard though those things could very well improve) but he should be able to hit well for the position. Montgomery broke his ankle or leg and didn’t play a game in pro ball last year but he was highly regarded pre-injury. Hit tool concerns but he has real power. Will probably end up in RF imo

 

[RoccoF14]

Has anything posted in this thread been correct in regards to the end result?

LOL. No......

 

[DKH]

If the post is claiming the Red Sox are still cheap then yes.

They gotta be at $225 M or whatever it is ~ I know they got Duran & Houck up but they gotta to be spending to max - I admit I would not be Cohen & LA

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

They gotta be at $225 M or whatever it is ~ I know they got Duran & Houck up but they gotta to be spending to max - I admit I would not be Cohen & LA

They only spent 40% of their revenue on baseball last year. They have been no where near spending what they could on the product.

Red Sox 2024 payroll ranked last year 12th − $176,458,748, Revenue 3rd - $500,000,000

 

[EverettMike]

Speier has dumped water on Casas for Castillo, it’s a dumb rumor that never made any sense

Thats the Bruin fan in us


crochet’s potential - LH #1 pitcher- has even more value than both of them. A left handed ace is the most valuable thing in the sport

When you give up potential like Teel it should be for some who has established their value. But again, there are times when this deal makes total sense. Right now it does not. They're just cheap and needed to do something "big."

 

[RoccoF14]

This is the part that I have trouble getting over. If they had signed a top starter and a RH bat first, while maxing out payroll, I could understand this move. At that point, you'd have done everything else you could and a trade would be necessary to complete the roster.

As things stand, their period of contention isn't today. It's probably in 2-3 years when Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell are hopefully settled in (similar to how the timing of contention worked with Bogaerts, Betts, Devers, & Benintendi). Unless they were concerned about Teel and Montgomery losing significant value in the next year, I don't understand the need to make a move like this today (besides panic and desperation because Plan A, Plan B, etc failed first).

1. The Mets were going to blow any offer for Soto out of the water, to land Soto. Nobody should be shocked by that.

2. Once Soto was gone, the Yankees were definitely going to use that money to go after a top of the rotation guy. Either Fried or Burnes. They weren't going to be outbid again and gave Fried a "generous" offer. Again, nobody should be shocked by that.

3. Boston needs a legit, top of the rotation guy. The only sure thing out there is Burnes. Should they have gone all out with an offer to land him? Yes. Did they? Who knows. My sense is that they kicked the tires on him and they either balked at his asking price ($35+mil/yr) or they learned that Burnes was dead set on going west to someone like the Giants. He'll probably sign with the Giants for less money than he would with Boston, and once that deal becomes public, I'm sure this board will lose its mind over it and the cheapskate comments will start flying....

4. So now they are left with trading for Crochet (who has massive upside, with some risk), or settle/overpay for guys like Flaherty (who has always been inconsistent) and Buehler (who's got just as much risk as Crochet, without as much upside). Neither of which are #1 rotation guys on a good team.

I agree with your comment about the period of contention being 2-3 years away, IF things fall right with Boston's prospects. All the more reason to trade for a potential ace, who is 25yrs old and hasn't hit his peak yet either....

and for the record, YES I do think Boston overpaid by adding Montgomery.

 

[CDJ]

When you give up potential like Teel it should be for some who has established their value. But again, there are times when this deal makes total sense. Right now it does not. They're just cheap and needed to do something "big."

He already has established a lot of his value, there’s just more in there if he can get up to 180 innings. We now he’s already really, really good against major leaguers

 

[EverettMike]

He already has established a lot of his value, there’s just more in there if he can get up to 180 innings. We now he’s already really, really good against major leaguers

I'm sorry, but one single season as a starter where he wasn't allowed to throw more than 4 innings in the second half of the season is not established in anyway.

 

[RoccoF14]

I'm sorry, but one single season as a starter where he wasn't allowed to throw more than 4 innings in the second half of the season is not established in anyway.

Is it the 4 inning cap at the end of last season the thing that's bothering you? If it is, it shouldn't.

The White Sox had literally NOTHING to play for, and they weren't going to risk their most valuable trade asset for no reason whatsoever...

The Brewers did the EXACT same thing with Corbin Burnes, early in his career.

 

[EverettMike]

Is it the 4 inning cap at the end of last season the thing that's bothering you? If it is, it shouldn't.

The White Sox had literally NOTHING to play for, and they weren't going to risk their most valuable trade asset for no reason whatsoever...

I've shared my thoughts on this extensively, but no, that's not "the thing." It's everything.

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

On a side note, I think suggesting they're going to get to 90 wins is the most optimistic thing you've said in this thread. This might be an 85 win team right now.

I wasn't trying to suggest that. No way do I believe that they are close to 90 wins, maybe not even 85. This will continue as long as they are fielding such a below average / bad defensive group.

I just think that 90 wins is their goal. It keeps them in the hunt for October and once there, some may argue that it'a a crapshoot anyway, right? Probably because the models like it and it's cost effective.

 

[EverettMike]

I wasn't trying to suggest that. No way do I believe that they are close to 90 wins, maybe not even 85. This will continue as long as they are fielding such a below average / bad defensive group.

I just think that 90 wins is their goal. It keeps them in the hunt for October and once there, some may argue that it'a a crapshoot anyway, right? Probably because the models like it and it's cost effective.

I think this is absolutely right. The goal is to build an 85-win team knowing that a) bad breaks will mean a last place finish and a high draft pick, b) good breaks will mean 95 wins and competing for the division with a WIld Card guaranteed and c) normal breaks will mean they are "in it" until the end.

The days of striving to build a 100-game winner are long over. They were once driven by a single goal of winning titles by building the best team in baseball. Now they want to buy scratch tickets.