Prospect Info: 2025 Draft: We are #1….1

[The Old Master]

I'd 100% trade RR for a top ~7 pick this year. Pick one of the centers that'll be there.

they might still be there at 8-9-10 so if we can't get 7 we can keep trying.

 

[SEALBound]

Nobody is trading a top seven pick for Rickard Rakell, no sense in even imagining it.

This draft being weak doesn't lend itself well to trading a 1st in it for Rakell. You're fighting several conflicting issues on one front.

Is Rakell worth a 1st? Absolutely. A 2025 1st? Lol, even more so. In fact, with the weakness of the 2025 draft, you can easily suggest that Rakell should be worth a higher pick. In a strong draft, something in the 20-32 slot would be reasonable to suggest. In this draft, that same value is likely around the 15th overall mark (in terms of quality of player), but then you start fighting the meme of the pick - "Omg, you're trading the FIFTEENTH OVERALL pick for Rakell!?" So then you ask in a vacuum "Is Rakell worth the 15ov pick?" and that's where it gets muddy (rightfully or wrongfully). I think at or below 15th, the auroa or meme of the pick will outweigh the actual value.

I have severe doubts that anyone taken at 15ov in the 2025 draft will be at Rakell's level. Short term or long term. But I doubt a team moves that pick for him. It wouldn't "make sense". Just like us getting a 20-32ov pick for him (without significant adds or another centerpiece) doesn't make sense.

Much better solution - trade after the draft or at the TDL for a 2026 1st. Same with EK.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

When was the last time a team traded into the top 5? Seems pretty uncommon. I remember moving up for Fleury but that was already within the top 5.

No one has moved into the Top 10 by trading just draft picks since 2008. Any trades involving Top 10 picks were part of larger deals involving contracted players, usually stars.

 

[chethejet]

I have to think Buffalo will be open to moving Byram. So Pens first plus Karlsson with 2 million retention per and Ponomarev and Buffalo sends Byram and Helenius back. Pens get LD they need and a RW/center who I really liked in last years draft.

 

[JRS91]

It's true... that draft really did turn out pretty trash.

But man... the Penguins had access to two guys at that slot that nearly everyone here was talking about at the time. I think that's why it sticks out so much in everyone's mind... it was such an egregious example of a team getting it SO wrong largely predicated on personal biases and ego.

Imagine if we drafted Forsberg and Skjei.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No one has moved into the Top 10 by trading just draft picks since 2008. Any trades involving Top 10 picks were part of larger deals involving contracted players, usually stars.

Yeah this is why I think the "trade up to get a guy you want" takes are pretty unlikely. The most common trades with picks around #11 and #12 overall are trading back 3-4 spots to get a 2nd rounder back. Combine that with Dubas' track record, I think it's more likely to see him trading back from #11 to #16 and get a high 2nd back.

Depending on how the draft board falls, I wouldn't mind that. If Eklund is gone, I'd do that deal with Montreal I've mentioned a few times (#11 for #16 and #41) and take one of Lakovic, Reschny, Bear or Kindel at #16. I'm unsure who of that group actually lasts until 16, I'd bet Reschny and Kindel are the most likely, but you'd at least have 1 or 2 of them as options.

 

[Jacob]

Getting an early-ish 2nd might be nice. Seems like there's a good chance someone we've been talking about as a potential pick if we had gotten the Rangers pick might fall out of the 1st. A Kindel, Schmidt, Potter type.

It seems like this draft does kind of level off at a point which is why you could see a guy ranked anywhere from 12th to 28th depending on who viewed him when and what amount of concern you put on that player's particular flaws.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Getting an early-ish 2nd might be nice. Seems like there's a good chance someone we've been talking about as a potential pick if we had gotten the Rangers pick might fall out of the 1st. A Kindel, Schmidt, Potter type.

It seems like this draft does kind of level off at a point which is why you could see a guy ranked anywhere from 12th to 28th depending on who viewed him when and what amount of concern you put on that player's particular flaws.

I think he more likely goes before an early 2nd they'd get, but I like Boumedienne with an early 2nd if they can get it. He's pretty consistently ranked between a late 1st and a mid 2nd, with Pronman having him at #21, Wheeler having him at #33 and Elite Prospects having him at #47 in the most recent rankings.

I think you'd probably have to trade down with Philly or Nashville to get a high enough 2nd to grab him, but that's dropping too far in round 1 for my liking. I wouldn't want to trade down below #18 or so in the 1st.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It seems like this draft does kind of level off at a point which is why you could see a guy ranked anywhere from 12th to 28th depending on who viewed him when and what amount of concern you put on that player's particular flaws.

I think a good example of this happening in practice is 2017. Considered a weak draft but turned out to be pretty solid and pretty even talent long term from 15-45.

The only thing is getting it right. If you picked 12th and passed on Suzuki for Vaak and Lind, ugh. Dubas traded out of Konecny pick in’15z

But in 2021- Dallas traded back, got Johnston and picked up Stankoven with the extra 2nd.

 

[Jacob]

I think a good example of this happening in practice is 2017. Considered a weak draft but turned out to be pretty solid and pretty even talent long term from 15-45.

The only thing is getting it right. If you picked 12th and passed on Suzuki for Vaak and Lind, ugh. Dubas traded out of Konecny pick in’15z

But in 2021- Dallas traded back, got Johnston and picked up Stankoven with the extra 2nd.

I recall Bobby Brink being rated in the 20s but then at the combine he measured an inch and a half shorter than was previously reported and he fell.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I can wrap my head around Desnoyers top 10 a bit better after watching some of his playoffs

I still don’t like him a ton but I can see why teams value him given weak alternatives.

@Jacob put it well, if he gets a little better at everything he could be a pretty solid pivot.

 

[Andy99]

I can wrap my head around Desnoyers top 10 a bit better after watching some of his playoffs

I still don’t like him a ton but I can see why teams value him given weak alternatives.

@Jacob put it well, if he gets a little better at everything he could be a pretty solid pivot.

Bukala had this to say about him…still not interested in him either

Scout's Analysis: Assessing the top of the 2025 NHL Draft

With the lottery happening Monday night to decide the order of the top 16 picks in the 2025 NHL Draft, former scout Jason Bukala looks at some players who will go early and questions still to be answered over the next month-plus.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Hensler is interesting after watching him tbh. Really good skater.

Seems like zero blogger/internet scouts like him but I kinda do. Basically has same tools as Jackson Smith but not as big and a lot more “chill” and simplified out there.

I wonder about his upside. Does he pop next year? Is he the 2nd D off the board if he scored 50 points in the USHL instead of college?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hensler did have a good season in 2023-2024, both with the USNTDP and at the WJC-18. But his 2024-2025 was pretty crappy, even if you take out how he did at Wisconsin he also had a bad WJC-20. I wouldn't be particularly happy about drafting him at this point, but that said he is playing a more advanced role than a lot of guys in the 2025 class.

I want to draft guys on the upswing as prospects while guys like Hensler, McQueen and Ryabkin don't fit that. I'd rather steer clear of guys who have stagnated.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Hensler did have a good season in 2023-2024, both with the USNTDP and at the WJC-18. But his 2024-2025 was pretty crappy, even if you take out how he did at Wisconsin he also had a bad WJC-20. I wouldn't be particularly happy about drafting him at this point, but that said he is playing a more advanced role than a lot of guys in the 2025 class.

He was fine for Wisconsin imo. Showed his talent and got better as season went on. But definitely needed to adjust. They didn’t score many goals (under 3/per game) so I wouldn’t knock his stats too hard. I think it’s more he’s kind of a tweener where the Q is what does he project to do well at NHL level. Score, defend? Kinda hard to not be a specialist anymore unless you’re a top pair talent. Which he may have physical tools for to be fair.

I’m not concerned with a DY d-man is the WJC20. If you look amazing you should prob go top 3. Like McAvoy had zero points.

Hard to really watch a ton of him but I am just saying I bet he’s in play to be 3rd defender off board. Righty with same tools as Smith, just a tad smaller but more refined.

 

[Andy99]

This ranking has Eklund at #4 and Martin at #22…eyes of the beholder lol…Bear is very high up

2025 NHL Draft Rankings: Ferrari's Post-Lottery Top 64

One week after the NHL’s draft lottery decided which franchise received the first-overall pick, it’s time for a new round of draft rankings.

thehockeynews.com

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Oh, f***in' Tony Ferrari? I think I went to high school with that dude on the Jersey Shore. Despite his last name, dude drove a beat to shit '92 IROC Camaro. Stunad.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Oh, f***in' Tony Ferrari? I think I went to high school with that dude on the Jersey Shore. Despite his last name, dude drove a beat to shit '92 IROC Camaro. Stunad.

Does he know that Skittles chick?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Does he know that Skittles chick?

Buddy does he ever.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

With news of regarding Malcom Spence committing to Michigan, that’s someone who we should look at. They develop well over there.

He could really pop offensively and that kind of player finding another “gear” per se would be amazing.

 

[Factorial]

I have to think Buffalo will be open to moving Byram. So Pens first plus Karlsson with 2 million retention per and Ponomarev and Buffalo sends Byram and Helenius back. Pens get LD they need and a RW/center who I really liked in last years draft.

You think Karlsson would approve a trade to the Sabres?

 

[HandshakeLine]

You think Karlsson would approve a trade to the Sabres?

He's a big fan of pizza logs and the world's largest collection of grain silos.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Buffalo really does blow complete chunks. Full offense to anyone from there/living there.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

With news of regarding Malcom Spence committing to Michigan, that’s someone who we should look at. They develop well over there.

He could really pop offensively and that kind of player finding another “gear” per se would be amazing.

Everything I've read on him suggests him as just a complimentary player. Which there's nothing wrong with that, but we don't have that higher end skill in a forward prospect. Would aim for a player with a higher ceiling with a 1st but certainly wouldn't mind him with a 2nd (not that he'll make it to the 2nd round).

Could trade down I guess.

 

[Empoleon8771]

With news of regarding Malcom Spence committing to Michigan, that’s someone who we should look at. They develop well over there.

He could really pop offensively and that kind of player finding another “gear” per se would be amazing.

Spence doesn't really have the upside I'd be looking for to take him in this draft. I'd be hoping for a higher aim than him.

He's not a bad prospect but I'd just like to aim higher. I'd pick Lakovic before Spence, I think trying to get Lakovic to play more like Spence is more likely than Spence becoming more skilled like Lakovic.