Prospect Info: 2025 DRAFT Discussion

[Ulf5]

Bear dropped quite a bit, I wish we had our 2nd dammit

I've seen nhl.com (2 of their writers' individual mocks) twice mock him to mid teens. Along with a couple other mainstream sites.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, is that not what he's been doing?

Guentzel for Novak, Koivunen, Pono, Brunicke, Cruz, WPG 2nd, WPG 4th.

Signs Eller and trades him later for a 3rd and 5th.

Takes on Glass for a 3rd and 6th, trades him for a 3rd.

Signs Beauvillier, trades him for a 2nd.

Sends out Pettersson and DOC, gets Heinen, 1st, Fernstrom, and a 5th.

You still need players to play on the NHL team. "Oh no! He acquired Novak, Heinen, and Tomasino for cheap! He wants to win the cup!" isn't a great argument.

Go look at what the Sharks, Chicago, and Buffalo were icing to get the 1st overall in their respective years. They were stripping the team down not just moving out UFAs.

For reference.

Sharks.

Hawks. (A reminder that this team jumped from 3rd to 1st.)

Sabres

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Any time a team moves up in drafting position.

Technically you can move up without “winning” the lottery because there are 2 draws.

First draw of ping pong balls: determines the number 1 pick/who moves up a max of 10 slots. So a lotto win would either be the first overall pick or a #12-16 team “winning” (ie going from 16th to 6th. Worst team in NHL gets 1OA if that happens).

Second draw: determines the next possible slot. Most likely 2OA. But this is also capped at 10 slot increase from where you start. So it could be two teams ranked 14th and 15th win each draw and only get picks 4 and 5.

What isn’t clear is if you only get to win 2 draws in 5 years or win 2 first draws in 5 years.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Any time a team moves up in drafting position.

So San Jose drafting 1st last year wouldn't count against their two times in five years as they finished 32nd and didn't move up?

 

[Gurglesons]

So San Jose drafting 1st last year wouldn't count against their two times in five years as they finished 32nd and didn't move up?

Correct.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

So San Jose drafting 1st last year wouldn't count against their two times in five years as they finished 32nd and didn't move up?

It’s unclear. I believe SJ “won” the draw on top of being the worst team but it didn’t improve their position . I’m not sure if that counts as a “win” in the eyes of the rule.

2024 was first season since 2010 where final draft order mirrored standings.

Edit it is NOT unclear

From NHL.com “this limitation will not affect a clubs ability to retain its presumptive draft position in any draft lottery”

 

[Gurglesons]

It’s unclear. I believe SJ “won” the draw on top of being the worst team but it didn’t improve their position . I’m not sure if that counts as a “win” in the eyes of the rule.

2024 was first season since 2010 where final draft order mirrored standings.

You only can not "win" the lottery 2 years out of 5 or whatever.

If you are last and you get 1st. You aren't winning the lottery. You are consistent with your spot in the lottery.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

You only can not "win" the lottery 2 years out of 5 or whatever.

If you are last and you get 1st. You aren't winning the lottery. You are consistent with your spot in the lottery.

Yeah I just found the language on NHL.com

Seems like even moving from 3rd to 2nd counts as a win, which is kind of insane. Should be just 1OA

 

[Malkinstheman]

What I can't find any information about is, what happens if a team wins two lotteries in 5 years? If the Hawks win the lottery this year, does that mean in 2026 their balls get taken out of rotation and their odds are redistributed to everyone else? I guess we won't know until someone actually wins two

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

What I can't find any information about is, what happens if a team wins two lotteries in 5 years? If the Hawks win the lottery this year, does that mean in 2026 their balls get taken out of rotation and their odds are redistributed to everyone else? I guess we won't know until someone actually wins two

Think they would just redraw like they did with the Sharks winning multiple draws last year.

 

[Pancakes]

It does seem possible we could be the worst team next year or the year after.

Someone has to be and Chicago and San Jose are poised to try to start competing. And should keep getting better given their youth.

We on the other hand are old and getting older and have no elite prospects on the way. If Sid or Geno declined next year or even got hurt for any length of time we could be real bad. We might end up a bottom 5 team this year even with them being mostly healthy.

 

[Andy99]

Scout's Analysis: Ranking the top 64 prospects for the 2025 NHL Draft

Former NHL scout Jason Bukala updates his own personal ranking of the prospects eligible for the 2025 NHL Draft, from 1 to 64.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[SEALBound]

Scout's Analysis: Ranking the top 64 prospects for the 2025 NHL Draft

Former NHL scout Jason Bukala updates his own personal ranking of the prospects eligible for the 2025 NHL Draft, from 1 to 64.

www.sportsnet.ca

Frondell moving up the ranks rapidly in recent rankings. Makes sense though being that he was being discussed as a top 3 pick last summer. See Martone drop a bit is wild, especially when scouts are pushing up Desnoyers. Both will be good I'm sure but when you go back and look at the 2016 draft and seeing Matt Tkachuk going 6ov, it's tough not to groan. Seeing the impact a Tkachuk or Wilson can make? Letting a player like that slide? Seems wild in today's NHL.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I want the Pens to win the McKenna and Dupont lottos. Speaking of which, I've asked this to Puckpedia and Pensburgh without any definitive answer: What constitutes using up one of the two in five year draft "wins?" Any time a team draft #1 or #2 regardless of their standings?

It's when a team moves up higher than their spot in the lottery.
Also, it wouldn't be conditioned on the drafting team. So for instance, if the Rangers defer the pick to next year and win the McKenna lottery (and move up in the process), this would be a Rangers lottery win and not a Penguins lottery win.

 

[HandshakeLine]

It's when a team moves up higher than their spot in the lottery.
Also, it wouldn't be conditioned on the drafting team. So for instance, if the Rangers defer the pick to next year and win the McKenna lottery (and move up in the process), this would be a Rangers lottery win and not a Penguins lottery win.

If that happens, I will laugh myself to death because it would make so many people SO mad.

 

[Jacob]

Maybe Philly gets a bounce from the coaching change.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Maybe Philly gets a bounce from the coaching change.

With 9 games left, would you?

 

[Rakell67]

With 9 games left, would you?

They have a few winnable games the rest of the way (BUFx2, NSH, NYR, NYI, CBJ, MTLx2, OTT)

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Winning McKenna with the Rangers' pick would give me a sports high like watching the team win their second of the B2Bs. The hockey world, and especially Rangers fans, would go ballistic.

 

[Rakell67]

ANA and SEA have brutal schedules the rest of the season. It would be likely they finish worse in the standings than the Pens. I could see Pens finishing around 8 or 9, hope they can get 6/7 tho.

 

[Ugene Magic]

They have a few winnable games the rest of the way (BUFx2, NSH, NYR, NYI, CBJ, MTLx2, OTT)

The Pens don't need to pass the Flyers, but passing the Kraken is needed.

 

[Pancakes]

The Bruins are going to pass the Pens. They're doing an extremely pathetic tank job and look like they might not win again all season.

Think the Pens end up picking 7th or 8th but it wouldn't surprise me if they play themselves higher than that.

 

[Andy99]

We could get to 5th but requires us to stay behind Boston and Anaheim and for either Seattle, Buffalo or Flyers to leap ahead of us…most important is for us to just keep losing, something we seem loathe to do anyway lol…so we’ll probably pick #9

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

@Jesse posted this

I don’t love Aitcheson until late teens/20s personally

 

[eXile3]

The Bruins are going to pass the Pens. They're doing an extremely pathetic tank job and look like they might not win again all season.

Think the Pens end up picking 7th or 8th but it wouldn't surprise me if they play themselves higher than that.

I’ve been there since the tradeline. That’s what we are. The 7th, 8th worst team in the league.

If we wanted to be lower we would have needed to trade more players out.